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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    ^ Yes, I doubt it has much resale value as there will be another series of something else in-house which is just as fun in 2 / 5 / 10 years time.

    Think back about 5 years as to what the in-house play theme was ...

    2011 Pharoah's Quest - not a great seller now
    2010 Atlantis - not a great seller now
    2009 Power miners - not a great seller now
    2008 Agents - not a great seller now

    Chima may need price reductions to sell, but I think that is partly due to the price (of lego in general) compared to other toys. I don't know how many people pay full price for lego toys (I'm not talking AFOL type sets here, but toy sets for kids to play with) but I certainly don't, no matter what the range is. Chima, Ninjago, Atlantis, Monster Fighters, ... they have all been discounted. I think people expect them to be discounted, and it wouldn't surprise me if lego know this is the case and set the prices so that they can be discounted to sell to the masses.

    But the sets themselves, well my kids love the speedorz. It takes a little practice but once you can do it, it is possible to line up 2 or 3 tricks in a row and get a decent completion rate. The bigger sets are also fairly decent as play things. The cards, my kids don't use them for the speedorz games. But I bought probably 50 or so on BL for about 2p each, and combined with the ones they have, they use them to play a Top Trumps type game.

    Also the minifigure parts they have come up with have been great. First up, minifigure wings. Then the head pieces, some of them are great parts for making minifigure animals. The bear, tiger and wolf heads are perfect for customising to make Roman standard bearers with animal skins on their helmets.
  • ShibShib Member Posts: 5,478
    ^RE: discounts - I think a lot of retailers have shot themselves in the foot by clearancing Lego at 75% off type prices. Shops like Tesco I'll only consider purchasing Lego at 50% off, but even then I'll look at the stock and potentially wait it out a couple of weeks because past experience has shown that they generally take it to 75% after a couple of weeks.
    Other retailers I might bite earlier on the same set because their reductions tend to stick where they are far longer.

    I often hear people use how regularly they see sets of a theme discounted as a measure of it's popularity and it really is nonsense. It's a measure of the stores stock control nothing else.

    In terms of secondary market on themes like Chima, parting out is probably the best bet for highest returns. As @CCC the minifgure parts specific to the Chima theme could be widely used for other stuff - I remember seeing a great Heroica layout last year that had the mammoth head pieces to make elephant characters.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    What is the deal with the Lego Star Wars #9492 Tie Fighter? The prices have really gone up. Amazon US prices are averaging over $130 and Ebay over $100.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,382
    ^ I unloaded all of mine this Christmas in the $75-$85 range. I am not sure what is going on now on ebay, I suspect it is a fluke and will settle back around $90 for the short term.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited January 2015
    Shib said:

    I think the thing with Chima is that most AFOLs aren't very interested in it*. AFOL demand is what fuels aftermarket prices far more than anything else, parents are less likely to pay inflated prices when they could buy something current with more pieces for less money etc. It's the sort of theme that may or may not have an after market say 10-20 years down the line, when todays CFOLs come out of dark ages etc. The thing is no one is likely to hold on to sets that long so it's quite a moot point.

    *I say this as someone who originally hated Chima but came to really like it after building a couple of sets.

    Good point!

    I never got into Ninjago either, but I know kids seem to love that theme. The difference between Ninjago and Chima (in my opinion) is that Ninjago seems to have an aftermarket pulse for EOL'd sets; Chima doesn't at this point.

    I admit there are a couple of Chima sets that interest me, but I'm waiting for a substantial sale before picking them up. If they don't go on a substantial sale, then I'm okay with that too.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Chubbles said:

    Out of stock with an expected ship date means it will still ship or could they still just flip that out of stock retired? Looking to make TB my first investment piece and wondering if I should place the order or go to ebay to lock it up.

    I would recommend doing some more research before making your first investment. BF 2014 would be a good place to start.
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    edited January 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    What is the deal with the Lego Star Wars #9492 Tie Fighter? The prices have really gone up. Amazon US prices are averaging over $130 and Ebay over $100.

    I was surprised by this as well. I sold one on ebay recently for a little over $100. Could be a fluke, but maybe their popularity is increasing with the youngins due to Rebels?
    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    Farmer_John said:


    I never got into Ninjago either, but I know kids seem to love that theme. The difference between Ninjago and Chima (in my opinion) is that Ninjago seems to have an aftermarket pulse for EOL'd sets; Chima doesn't at this point.

    You'd be surprised. A lot of Ninjago sets do not sell very well either. Sure there are the dragons and the temples that do OK but a lot of the sets, especially early ones, don't go for RRP. As for spinners, they can be a right pain to shift. I bought a load of the 2111-2116 sets at about 66% off and they took ages to get rid of.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    The only spinner that I bought loads of was the Lloyd ZX. That was the only "set" that I ever quick flipped.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    Yes, he is definitely the exception.
  • HitchHitch Member Posts: 7
    Lion Chi Temple #70010 was a large set with a short run of just 9 months that had a lot going for it as far as resale potential. It was widely discounted at WMT and at TGT and was a great grab at 50% off. But then TRU (they're often a party pooper) got a boatload of them in, months after it sold out, and prices fell. TRU sold them for 99, and it did originally retail for 119. TRU is now out of them, and they're going for about 150, depending on where you buy, which is 20-something percent over full retail. If I had to purchase a Chima set for resale, it would be that one. I've got a few I'm holding, hoping for a little future profit.

    I have a few of the large Cragger Command Ships #70061 that came out in January 2013. I've got buyer's remorse over those, but perhaps there's hope, as it seems Amazon finally, finally, has sold of them. Oops! I lied. I see you can still pre-order them at Amazon. That set will not go away! Like that buffoon Jim Cramer says, "Don't buy, don't buy!"
  • HitchHitch Member Posts: 7
    Hey, Chubbles, I'd recommend you start building a feedback history somewhere. It's not easy getting started at either Ebay or Amazon. It's like trying to get hired when you have no experience.
    Pitfall69
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    I flipped some Lion Temples at Xmas for a little pocket change, but I'm not holding any sets now. Not an Ice Dragon in the bunch, and nothing seems to me to have enduring appeal. Lion Temple (which we have and is a fairly impressive set) might be the standout relatively equal to Garmadons Dark Fortress.

    So Super Heroes... Doesn't Jokerland sound like another nail hammered into the Funhouse's coffin?

  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,730
    ^I think just the opposite. Who wouldn't want one without the other?
    sidersddCircleKPitfall69BrickDancerjasor
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    ^Hmm, lemons into lemonade... I like it!
    Pitfall69
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    samiam391 said:

    enotoga said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    enotoga said:


    madforLEGO guote:

    "Tower Bridge has been out going on 5 years and at times was on sale for under 200 USD. That likely means many are sitting on at least a handful of them, so I'm not so sure it is going to meteorically rise as you are claiming, unless you are being sarcastic."
    ___________


    True that 5 years is a long time.....but TB is a completely different animal. Not a generic Town Hall in anytown. No sir......this is the iconic Tower Bridge, loved the world over. And if TH amd HH taught us anything, it's that price matters..... a lot. Time will tell. But I'd pick up one more TB just to be safe.

    I would hazzard a guess that most Americans have no idea what the Tower Bridge is. Most would probably call it the London Bridge, which is obviously a totally different animal. I don't think TB will do as well as you say.

    While it's true that most Americans think you're still living in mud huts and eating rotten food, we do know about your dungeons, where you store your jewels, and the surrounding tunnels and river crossings. We make that our business. We consider you ours. You're our very own little Mary Poppins Land.
    I think you're on the wrong forums...
    Brits are known for having a keen sense of humor and taste for the finest rock-n-roll. But not fine in the thick skin department?
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Pitfall69 said:

    enotoga said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    enotoga said:


    madforLEGO guote:

    "Tower Bridge has been out going on 5 years and at times was on sale for under 200 USD. That likely means many are sitting on at least a handful of them, so I'm not so sure it is going to meteorically rise as you are claiming, unless you are being sarcastic."
    ___________


    True that 5 years is a long time.....but TB is a completely different animal. Not a generic Town Hall in anytown. No sir......this is the iconic Tower Bridge, loved the world over. And if TH amd HH taught us anything, it's that price matters..... a lot. Time will tell. But I'd pick up one more TB just to be safe.

    I would hazzard a guess that most Americans have no idea what the Tower Bridge is. Most would probably call it the London Bridge, which is obviously a totally different animal. I don't think TB will do as well as you say.

    While it's true that most Americans think you're still living in mud huts and eating rotten food, we do know about your dungeons, where you store your jewels, and the surrounding tunnels and river crossings. We make that our business. We consider you ours. You're our very own little Mary Poppins Land.
    I don't know what you are smoking...or sniffing, but please send me a PM on where I can purchase such things because you are waaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyy out there buddy ;)

    Seriously, I AM an American. I am poking fun at the reality that most Americans probably don't have a clue about the Tower Bridge.

    My bad......I thought you were a Brit and I was just razzing you. True, there are a lot of uneducated people in the US, but most Americans would recognize the Tower Bridge, me thinks.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I wouldn't mind seeing a mid-scale Tower Bridge at some point just as I would enjoy a large scale Big Ben. Either would also be great MOC projects.

    But I have no interest in a London Bridge on any scale...
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,837
    edited January 2015
    Bumblepants said:

    ^I think just the opposite. Who wouldn't want one without the other?

    Brickarmor said:

    ^Hmm, lemons into lemonade... I like it!

    If 'Jokerland' is 199.99 USD or more, or even 160 USD (price point of AA), then the Funhouse escape may be a cheaper alternative to someone and it will still rise in price, just not leaps and bounds of over 100 USD, likely 90-100 USD Im guessing. Also it matters if the figures are the same I think. If they are different, then Funhouse escape should do OK, but not if you bought them for TRUs 'retail' price, maybe not even if you got them at LEGO's retail price, but if you got them cheaper then it will be OK I think.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    edited January 2015



    My bad......I thought you were a Brit and I was just razzing you. True, there are a lot of uneducated people in the US, but most Americans would recognize the Tower Bridge, me thinks.


    No, I agree with previous statements. Most Americans would not recognize the tower bridge. You have no idea just how apathetic our general population really is.
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,837
    madforLEGO said:

    Bumblepants said:

    ^I think just the opposite. Who wouldn't want one without the other?

    Brickarmor said:

    ^Hmm, lemons into lemonade... I like it!

    If 'Jokerland' is 199.99 USD or more, or even 160 USD (price point of AA), then the Funhouse escape may be a cheaper alternative to someone and it will still rise in price, just not leaps and bounds of over 100 USD, likely 90-100 USD Im guessing. Also it matters if the figures are the same I think. If they are different, then Funhouse escape should do OK, but not if you bought them for TRUs 'retail' price, maybe not even if you got them at LEGO's retail price, but if you got them cheaper then it will be OK I think.
    Ok after reading the description of the Jokerland it would appear to be fairly cheap (likely 129.99 USD as it is apparently going to be about 90 pounds) and with many of the same figures, so yeah.. not likely to see a lot of money making on those.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    madforLEGO said:

    If 'Jokerland' is 199.99 USD or more, or even 160 USD (price point of AA), then the Funhouse escape may be a cheaper alternative to someone and it will still rise in price, just not leaps and bounds of over 100 USD, likely 90-100 USD Im guessing.

    It's at the Toy Fair, so I don't think it's an exclusive like Arkham Asylum. Also, the price is apparently £89.99, which means it could be as low as $90 in the US but will more likely be in $100-$120 range.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    pharmjod said:


    My bad......I thought you were a Brit and I was just razzing you. True, there are a lot of uneducated people in the US, but most Americans would recognize the Tower Bridge, me thinks.


    No, I agree with previous statements. Most Americans would not recognize the tower bridge. You have no idea just how apathetic our general population really is.

    Recognizing something and knowing exactly what it is are different. I'm sure there are plenty of Americans that recognize the TB, but they probably don't know exactly what it is called and may not know where it is. My wife has been all over the world and while in London she mistakenly called the TB the "London Bridge"

  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    As a Brit ... It's not the Tower Bridge, just Tower Bridge.
    Pitfall69pharmjodFollowsCloselyjasor
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited January 2015
    pharmjod said:


    No, I agree with previous statements. Most Americans would not recognize the tower bridge. You have no idea just how apathetic our general population really is.




    The US, stretching from the Atlantic almost to Asia is a fairly large piece of real estate. The people can be as different as the geography. It might be time to make some new friends.

    FollowsClosely
  • ShibShib Member Posts: 5,478
    Pitfall69 said:


    Recognizing something and knowing exactly what it is are different. I'm sure there are plenty of Americans that recognize the TB, but they probably don't know exactly what it is called and may not know where it is. My wife has been all over the world and while in London she mistakenly called the TB the "London Bridge"

    To be fair there are plenty of people in the UK who think Tower Bridge is called London Bridge.
    FollowsClosely
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,331
    In fairness, it is a London bridge.
    Pitfall69pharmjodFollowsClosely
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    cheshirecat said:

    In fairness, it is a London bridge.

    ....half of the time. ;o)

  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    Just stopping by to ask how long any of you think Grand Emporium will stay at its current price point?
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty Member Posts: 545
    SithLord196 said:

    Just stopping by to ask how long any of you think Grand Emporium will stay at its current price point?

    Looking at the data for Fire Brigade, it went to $235 USD a month after it retired, and climbed to $300 USD over the past year.

    I imagine Grand Emporium will follow a similar pattern. Keeping in mind Grand Emporium was available in some countries longer than others, I'm not sure when it's "official" retirement date was.

    It's interesting to note the available quantities on bricklink:
    FB 997
    GE 1273
    TH 204

    I think that goes to show that TH was not stockpiled like FB and GE.



    MrJ_NYpharmjodFarmer_JohnFollowsClosely
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    My general hope is it doesn't go up too much in the next 4 months or so, at which point I should be able to afford it.

    My next question is, am I better off getting it from Bricklink/Amazon/eBay or waiting for the Lego convention near me that will have vendors?
  • FASTER345FASTER345 Member Posts: 20
    Shib said:

    To be fair there are plenty of people in the UK who think Tower Bridge is called London Bridge.

    And how many people call the clock tower 'Big Ben' when that is really the name of the large bell inside??? Oooh I hate that! :wink:
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited January 2015
    How many people think the stick in "carrot and stick" is used to beat the donkey?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Farmer_John said:

    Yep...just a language thing. We tend to put a definite article (i.e., "the") in front of unique things here in the USA. Ex: The Grand Canyon, The Statue of Liberty, The White House, The Empire State Building, The President, The Rocky Mountains, etc.

    But things that aren't unique either get an indefinite article (i.e., "a") in front or nothing. Ex: McDonalds, Walmart, Target, Toys R Us, etc.

    When we Americans say "The Tower Bridge," it's our way of indicating it's special and unique.

    At least that's my story and I'm going to stick to it...

    Hahahahaha. Yes, but we incorrectly put an (s) at the end of Walmart and Target :)

    This US National Landmark is what?

  • SuperTrampSuperTramp Member Posts: 1,021
    edited January 2015
    The Arch Of Murica?

    BrickDancer
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    A half built McDonald's?
    Lego_StarchuckpLostInTranslationShibSupersympaFollowsCloselyMathBuilderGothamConstructionCojasor
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited January 2015
    ^The Gateway Arch? Okay...what do I win? ;-)
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp Member Posts: 1,021
    What's your point by the way pitfall?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Most people call it "The St. Louis Arch". While it is in St. Louis, the "Gateway Arch" is the correct name, so ding ding ding @Farmer_John‌ ;)

    I showed a picture of Tower Bridge to some of my clients today and each one of them said "London Bridge". Granted, this was a small sample size, but these are educated people. Doctors, highly successful business owners etc.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    Farmer_John said:

    Yep...just a language thing. We tend to put a definite article (i.e., "the") in front of unique things here in the USA. Ex: The Grand Canyon, The Statue of Liberty, The White House, The Empire State Building, The President, The Rocky Mountains, etc.

    Seems pretty anecdotal to me. Death Valley, Niagara Falls, Mammoth Cave, Fallingwater, Wrigley Field, Navy Pier, Fenway Park, etc.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    One
    Pitfall69 said:

    Farmer_John said:

    Yep...just a language thing. We tend to put a definite article (i.e., "the") in front of unique things here in the USA. Ex: The Grand Canyon, The Statue of Liberty, The White House, The Empire State Building, The President, The Rocky Mountains, etc.

    But things that aren't unique either get an indefinite article (i.e., "a") in front or nothing. Ex: McDonalds, Walmart, Target, Toys R Us, etc.

    When we Americans say "The Tower Bridge," it's our way of indicating it's special and unique.

    At least that's my story and I'm going to stick to it...

    Hahahahaha. Yes, but we incorrectly put an (s) at the end of Walmart and Target :)

    And Meijers :)
    Pitfall69binaryeyeShpadoinkleLegoPodcaster
  • HitchHitch Member Posts: 7
    SithLord196 said:

    My general hope is it doesn't go up too much in the next 4 months or so, at which point I should be able to afford it.

    My next question is, am I better off getting it from Bricklink/Amazon/eBay or waiting for the Lego convention near me that will have vendors?

    If box condition is important, wait for the convention. Large heavy boxes like TH tend to get creased during shipment. If low price is priority, invest some time with ebay auctions. You'll generally get a lower price with an auction, than a buy it now. Amazon tends to be a bit over-priced, where there's the (false) belief that it's safer to shop there. I haven't bought much at bricklink, but a big ticket purchase, like TH, seems a little risky to me. Not sure what kind of buyer protection you get at bricklink. These are all just generalizations and opinions; it will be time well-spent for you to look at all your options when ready to purchase.

    I would expect the convention to be way over-priced. I often see outrageous prices at those type events. Don't appear eager. The sellers will likely be savvy, and very good at negotiating in a way to get top dollar out of you. You need to know as much about the going prices as they do, and be prepared to negotiate, and be prepared to tell them, "a good condition one just sold for X at Ebay", that kind of thing, and you can prove your claims with your cell phone. Better yet, you tell them the price range for recently completed auctions for the item and be prepared to make an offer in the low to mid range. They will counter your offer, of course. Don't be afraid to politely decline their best offer, walk off and come back later. Be willing to leave without it, if you're determined to get a good deal, and they will sense that. Like at a yard sale, they'll likely be more motivated near closing time.
    sidersdd
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Pitfall69 said:

    Most people call it "The St. Louis Arch". While it is in St. Louis, the "Gateway Arch" is the correct name, so ding ding ding @Farmer_John‌ ;)

    I showed a picture of Tower Bridge to some of my clients today and each one of them said "London Bridge". Granted, this was a small sample size, but these are educated people. Doctors, highly successful business owners etc.

    Who the heck calls it 'the st louis arch'? I have never heard it called that.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    ^ Here is an article from USA today. While the article calls it Gateway, look at the title... Many think of it as the St. Louis Arch.
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/11/27/2-men-allegedly-plotted-to-bomb-st-louis-arch/19590121/
    Pitfall69
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited January 2015
    In St. Louis and surrounding areas we call it "the Arch". No common man refers to it as the "Gateway Arch". Besides, St. Louis is more or less a rust belt city nowadays and is hardly "The Gateway to the West".

    Pitfall69tamamahm
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    Ohh the Arch! That's what it's called. I just remember this summer after Ferguson someone wanting to blow it up.

    That's what you get from a media frenzy...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    My original point (way back) was that Tower Bridge wouldn't be that big of a hit on the Aftermarket, at least here in the states. Mainly because it has been out so long, has been on sale numerous times and most Americans don't even know what it is properly called. Americans probably identify more with the Clock Tower/Big Ben than Tower Bridge.

    Then, others have said that people in Great Britain call it "London Bridge" and that got me to thinking about American landmarks and if people here call any of them something else.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    tamamahm said:

    ^ Here is an article from USA today. While the article calls it Gateway, look at the title... Many think of it as the St. Louis Arch.

    I've always heard of it as "The Gateway to the West"...probably because it sounds so dramatic.

    In the Wikipedia link below, they entitle it "Gateway Arch" at the top of the page, yet refer throughout as "The Gateway Arch" or "The Arch."

    This darn English language can be so confusing. ¿Hay alguien que hable español ?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gateway_Arch
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    I'm not convinced that the majority of buyers in the secondary market of sets like Tower Bridge are doing so because they have some kind of connection or love with the subject mater. Sure while it is in production those people would make up a percentage of sales, but once a set starts to appreciate in the secondary market my guess is that the percentage drops off and most buyers are actually AFOL's trying to collect all the sets in the given series/theme.

    So it may not mater so much if a set subject mater is well known or not, it's more important that the set is interesting & challenging to build as well as a great display piece.
    dougts
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