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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    mathew said:

    ^ That's how I found a returned Architecture Studio when they were in high demand. I wasn't loitering though. Right place, right time.

    Nice, Sometimes it boils down to luck and timing.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    "In my experience, there is no such thing as luck." - Obi Wan Kenobi
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    What is everyone's opinion about the #10188 Death Star as an investment? I am on the fence about this one. It has been out so long that I feel that people have already bought one for their collection and resellers have gotten their fill. I also am wondering if Lego has stopped production on this and they are just waiting for stock to run out. The Minifigures are dated as well. What does everyone think?
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    ^you know better than to bring this up again. ;) I think this must be the 27th time.
    brickupdatePitfall69dougtsLegoboyCam_n_Stu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    ^But i only got 27% of the answer.
    brickupdatedougts
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I don't have much data to back it up, but I feel like reselling in the US is in slight decline. I feel like many resellers that stocked up on DS have sold them off over the years.

    Also, reselling sets is more about demand than supply, demand has to be there (which DS should have), so part of me doesn't care how many are in the supply pool. Either way, I bet a lot of people are still only planning to grab one when it's finally declared retired. FOOLS
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    At this point, for less than the price of 2 Death Stars, I think you're better off with 6 VWs or 8 Mini Coopers and they're much easier to ship. That's my guess.
    TheLoneTensor
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    Dougout said:

    I don't have much data to back it up, but I feel like reselling in the US is in slight decline. I feel like many resellers that stocked up on DS have sold them off over the years.

    Also, reselling sets is more about demand than supply, demand has to be there (which DS should have), so part of me doesn't care how many are in the supply pool. Either way, I bet a lot of people are still only planning to grab one when it's finally declared retired. FOOLS

    That's why the HH and TH are pricey now.
    The set will rise, but like @enotoga‌ says maybe it is better to get some smaller sets. Do you want to put all your eggs into one basket?
    I would say if you are looking to not do much but buy one to sit on, then the DS is probably the one, but if you want to buy multiples of something, maybe not.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    madforLEGO said:

    Plell said:

    Discontinued sets are discounted so that if they do get returned, they'll be easier to sell again to prevent them from taking up too much space in a store full of new product.

    I would not be surprised to see resellers loitering around the counter to see what is being returned for the past week at stores.
    ive gotten several EOL sets for 20% off the past couple years this way. Christmas returns on EOL sets. I've been there is person to see a couple occur, others I've come in shortly after. it's funny when I'm there because the clerks at the store just automatically put the item in my stack behind the counter.

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    mathew said:

    ^ That's how I found a returned Architecture Studio when they were in high demand. I wasn't loitering though. Right place, right time.

    got the same set the same way. walked in, they had it sitting there behind the register. someone had just returned it. bought it, put it on ebay, collect big profit the next day.

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    enotoga said:

    At this point, for less than the price of 2 Death Stars, I think you're better off with 6 VWs or 8 Mini Coopers and they're much easier to ship. That's my guess.

    yeah, I mostly agree. and it's far easier for a $100 set to triple in price and still have enough buyers than it is for a $400 set to do so.

    Pitfall69
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    The New UK Spring catalogue features the death star with "limited quantity" next to it.

    Looks like production has definitely stopped
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,309
    ^ or maybe that is what they want you to believe.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    We know its going anyway, to be replaced with a big ol' MF towards the end of 2015.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    Lego will not be without a DS for very long. Whenever 10188 does retire, I give it 2 years before a smaller playset version with detailed, upgraded figs is released. That leaves 10188 as a valued set, but weakened by its old figs.
  • JawascrumpJawascrump Member Posts: 112
    edited January 2015
    I went to Smyths yesterday and managed to pick up two AA #10937 for £129.99. Possibly the first time I've paid full retail for a set, but as it's sold out I'm hoping for big things over the next 18 months. Anybody fancy sticking their necks out and predicting a market price for Christmas next year? £250-280 maybe?
    I also got Cloud Cuckoo Palace and the Witch King battle to build (both excellent sets) Do you guys see a bright future for CCP on the secondary market? Lots of great minifigures and unusal colours, coupled with a strong license and I think it should increase fairly steadily. I can't find it online for less than retail though. Do you think it will be on sale on Amazon once they've restocked after the Christmas rush?
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    Legofanscott said:

    The New UK Spring catalogue features the death star with "limited quantity" next to it.

    Looks like production has definitely stopped

    The U.S. caralog had the same thing a few years ago. I would not at all be surprised if this set lasts well into the decade.
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    Looks like Lego has been busy producing the Tumbler all these days. Instock at target and [email protected] with no limits.(US)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    edited January 2015
    Jawascrump said:

    I went to Smyths yesterday and managed to pick up two AA #10937 for £129.99. Possibly the first time I've paid full retail for a set, but as it's sold out I'm hoping for big things over the next 18 months. Anybody fancy sticking their necks out and predicting a market price for Christmas next year? £250-280 maybe?
    I also got Cloud Cuckoo Palace and the Witch King battle to build (both excellent sets) Do you guys see a bright future for CCP on the secondary market? Lots of great minifigures and unusal colours, coupled with a strong license and I think it should increase fairly steadily. I can't find it online for less than retail though. Do you think it will be on sale on Amazon once they've restocked after the Christmas rush?

    As long as AA stays gone, and the minifigures in the set stay gone, then it will likely raise to near double of what it cost by end of next year I think.
    vasp said:

    Looks like Lego has been busy producing the Tumbler all these days. Instock at target and [email protected] with no limits.(US)

    That and the holidays are over. It was more likely IMO for those to buy such a pricey set for themselves, or for a loved one around Christmas than it would be now. Plus I just do not see the demand for this beyond the first surge of people that wanted it, but that is just my opinion.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    edited January 2015
    Sorry duplicate post
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 927
    Tumbler will be profitable once its discontinued because its awesome, that's a long way off though I think!
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    And the Tower Bridge
    Jawascrump said:

    I went to Smyths yesterday and managed to pick up two AA #10937 for £129.99. Possibly the first time I've paid full retail for a set, but as it's sold out I'm hoping for big things over the next 18 months. Anybody fancy sticking their necks out and predicting a market price for Christmas next year? £250-280 maybe?
    I also got Cloud Cuckoo Palace and the Witch King battle to build (both excellent sets) Do you guys see a bright future for CCP on the secondary market? Lots of great minifigures and unusal colours, coupled with a strong license and I think it should increase fairly steadily. I can't find it online for less than retail though. Do you think it will be on sale on Amazon once they've restocked after the Christmas rush?

    Are you talking Christmas 2015 or 2016? If you're talking Christmas 2015 I don't think it will be £250. The very fact that you can still get this from Smyths tells me it won't appreciate that fast. I went too today...and left them on the shelf. You can still pick them up for slightly over RRP on ebay. You can't say that about GE, TH, HH, SSD, R2D2. If I could find any of the sets i've mentioned at rrp I'd buy all that's on the shelf.
    It's a good set, don't get me wrong, and I sure as hell hope it does well as I have some. I just don't think it will appeciarte at the rate you do. If I had to choose I'd probably buy one TH at current market prices than two AA's. Time will tell.



  • legoboy1066legoboy1066 Member Posts: 130
    LEGO Creator Pet Shop 10218

    Any idea if this set will be retired soon.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    legoboy1066 said:

    LEGO Creator Pet Shop 10218

    Any idea if this set will be retired soon.

    Likely by End of 2015, or likely in the fall of '15 once speculators start buying in anticipation.
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    madforLEGO said:

    Dougout said:

    I don't have much data to back it up, but I feel like reselling in the US is in slight decline. I feel like many resellers that stocked up on DS have sold them off over the years.

    Also, reselling sets is more about demand than supply, demand has to be there (which DS should have), so part of me doesn't care how many are in the supply pool. Either way, I bet a lot of people are still only planning to grab one when it's finally declared retired. FOOLS

    That's why the HH and TH are pricey now.
    The set will rise, but like @enotoga‌ says maybe it is better to get some smaller sets. Do you want to put all your eggs into one basket?
    I would say if you are looking to not do much but buy one to sit on, then the DS is probably the one, but if you want to buy multiples of something, maybe not.
    You mean because resellers bought up lower supplies, right? True, but I would say the reason why I see HH at almost 2x RRP and TH is only around 1.5-1.75x RRP is due to demand, HH having a bit more. Supply certainly shouldn't be neglected, but a set won't rise much IF it doesn't have demand behind it. You could have a low supply all you want, but demand is key. Both are important though.

    I'm curious as why there is not much faith in AA? I view AA as a golden set. It's almost at 2x RRP here in the states. Is the difference really down to region? I'm not a big superheroes fan, but all my friends are, ALL of them. I can see the popularity in the US is only on the rise (until they bleed superheroes dry of all it's value). There's many, many drama tv shows that focus on superheroes, superhero video games and card games are on the rise, superhero merchandise is everywhere, and now they've started making movies that feature multiple heroes, as if only one wasn't pulling in enough $$$.


    Are superheroes/Batman really not popular in the EU?
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    My thoughts on the AA are just the fact you can still get them in the UK and it has surprised me. It's not often that happens here if the set is so called 'desirable'. I could get my hands on twenty tomorrow if I wanted as could most people. And like I said, it's surprising. If it had risen to break even now after fees and shipping I'd buy them at rrp but it hasn't. Certainly be interesting to watch the UK and US markets and see if/how they differ in 6 months time.

    I think most things are down to region. Regarding TH and HH I'd say it's opposite here, TH fetching the higher return.

    #21103 was a great seller this Christmas in the UK. Easy and cheap to ship, 80% profit, and all originally shipped from the US.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^That makes a lot of sense, thanks.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Finally got the Orthanc I ordered from US [email protected] Nov 28. Seals are 50R4.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    One of my goals for 2015 is to make sure I accumulate an adequate number of Palace Cinema sets, as I expect PC to retire at the end of 2015. If that happens, PC will have been out for 33 months (from March 2013 to Dec. 2015), but there's a chance of it retiring even earlier. I never liked PC and it's definitely my least favorite modular. I'm guessing it's a slow seller for Lego and doing only slightly better than PR. But it will forever be a key element of the Lego Modular City.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    edited January 2015
    What's up with this? A preorder Slave #75060 for $104.99
    http://www.toywiz.com/starwarslego75060.html
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,433
    Looks like a mistake. Probably should be $204.99
  • canon03canon03 USAMember Posts: 334
    You think they'll actually honor that price?
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    They'll probably charge you $100 in shipping.
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    Bosstone100 said:

    Looks like a mistake. Probably should be $204.99

    No way.
    Its probably 404 or 504.
    That's from toywiz.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    edited January 2015
    enotoga said:

    One of my goals for 2015 is to make sure I accumulate an adequate number of Palace Cinema sets, as I expect PC to retire at the end of 2015. If that happens, PC will have been out for 33 months (from March 2013 to Dec. 2015), but there's a chance of it retiring even earlier. I never liked PC and it's definitely my least favorite modular. I'm guessing it's a slow seller for Lego and doing only slightly better than PR. But it will forever be a key element of the Lego Modular City.

    I remember doing some math on modular retirement patterns, which led me to believe to buy a bunch of GEs in 2012. Just sayin'.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    Rainstorm26 said:

    They'll probably charge you $100 in shipping.

    $11
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    With regards to availability of some sets as they get close to EOL in different countries I thought I'd mention that just this lat Saturday I was in a toy store and they had 5 town halls, 10 Horizon Express, 4 Tower Bridges and about 18 winter village markets.

    The big problem with this is that the store doesn't have sales, so everything is sitting at RRP and here in Australia that is a bit too hefty.
    LegoTT
  • LegoTTLegoTT Member Posts: 483
    ^ wish I could find a Town Hall here in the states!
    TXLegoguybrokenapathy23
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    LegoTT said:

    ^ wish I could find a Town Hall here in the states!

    Sure, but would you pay Australian RRP for it?

    Actually, you CAN find a Town Hall in the states for Australian RRP, so go buy one. :)
    Pitfall69
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Brickarmor said:

    Finally got the Orthanc I ordered from US [email protected] Nov 28. Seals are 50R4.

    What does 50R4 mean date wise?
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 428
    SuperTramp said:

    Brickarmor said:

    Finally got the Orthanc I ordered from US [email protected] Nov 28. Seals are 50R4.

    What does 50R4 mean date wise?
    It means the set was produced in week 50 of 2014.
    SuperTrampPitfall69
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Ah i see, thanks for that.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    prevere said:

    enotoga said:

    One of my goals for 2015 is to make sure I accumulate an adequate number of Palace Cinema sets, as I expect PC to retire at the end of 2015. If that happens, PC will have been out for 33 months (from March 2013 to Dec. 2015), but there's a chance of it retiring even earlier. I never liked PC and it's definitely my least favorite modular. I'm guessing it's a slow seller for Lego and doing only slightly better than PR. But it will forever be a key element of the Lego Modular City.

    I remember doing some math on modular retirement patterns, which led me to believe to buy a bunch of GEs in 2012. Just sayin'.
    What mathematical calculations did you do that led you to buy a bunch of Town Halls?

  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Pitfall69 said:



    What mathematical calculations did you do that led you to buy a bunch of Town Halls?

    You divide the set number by 27. The result is how many you buy.

    pharmjod
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2015
    LegoFanTexas said:

    LegoTT said:

    ^ wish I could find a Town Hall here in the states!

    Sure, but would you pay Australian RRP for it?

    Actually, you CAN find a Town Hall in the states for Australian RRP, so go buy one. :)
    Actually it's not so bad (for you guys) now, as the days of parity of the dollar are long gone. Currently our retail of $299.99 is only $243 USD, which from what I can see is probably a good price. Obviously the $100 it costs to ship one to the US kills any deal :)

    I was a little tempted to buy a couple more, but as I got a few for $178USD in November it just didn't seem like a great deal.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Hang onto those GEs and you'll be richly rewarded; I went ahead and pulled the trigger on one of those $104 Slaves. The total at checkout was $116 I think. We'll see how that pans out.
  • pookiepookie Member Posts: 156
    I also tried my luck on that 75060 for $104. We'll see if they cancel the order.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,309
    edited January 2015
    Dougout said:


    I'm curious as why there is not much faith in AA? I view AA as a golden set. It's almost at 2x RRP here in the states. Is the difference really down to region? I'm not a big superheroes fan, but all my friends are, ALL of them. I can see the popularity in the US is only on the rise (until they bleed superheroes dry of all it's value). There's many, many drama tv shows that focus on superheroes, superhero video games and card games are on the rise, superhero merchandise is everywhere, and now they've started making movies that feature multiple heroes, as if only one wasn't pulling in enough $$$.

    Are superheroes/Batman really not popular in the EU?

    Something else that goes against AA is that it is essentially a facade of a building with not much substance (in a modular range sense) to it, although some nice little play features hidden away behind the facade. A decent enough truck and gate. And then of course there are the minifigs.

    Some people clearly want all three, and will probably pay for it.

    For those that want the minifigs, there are alternatives which are often in cheaper sets (especially if they are in current sets). There are also a number of fakes these days which will satisfy a number of people that might have possibly bought it for the minifigs alone. Of course, there will always be some unique figs to this set, but with the number of new superheroes minifigs coming out, I wonder if future buyers will aim to get them all. Sure some will, but will they pay 2x RRP for this set just to get Poison Ivy, Scarecrow and Harleen Quinzel? An alternative jumpsuit Joker is easy enough to make using a plain orange suit, Scarecrow is possible from CMF, Penguin is easy to make by buying the torso and using other parts from the Duck-boat set, Harleen by using a regular medic torso, etc. For people that want the characters rather than the exact minifigs, that is often good enough, especially if it is at a fraction of the price of a large set.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The AA set #10937 has always struck me as an "expensive" set; however, I did pick up a copy when double VIP points were offered just to have one in hand before it EOL'd. What I did grab (via BL) was a couple extra Batman minifigs from this set. My son collects Batman minifigs and I'm not aware of another set that includes the black plastic wings. I also grabbed a Harley Quinzel from this set shortly after it was released for maybe $5 to add to my minifig display. I've finally got in the habit of trying to pick up the minifigs via BL when I'm shopping for MOC parts to reduce my overall cost.

    As a side note, BL always seems to be a much better deal than eBay when it comes to minifigs. I also think that BL has a lower probability of counterfeit parts and minifigs (than eBay) since most people shopping on BL are more knowledgeable regarding Lego. Perhaps a faulty assumption, but I haven't had any issues with BL to date...
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