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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • vaspvasp Member Posts: 73
    is the mini cooper #10242 retired in the UK. If it is seems like a super short period. It was released 2014
  • Pate5346Pate5346 Member Posts: 889
    @vasp it's still shoving as available on S&H limit 5.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    vasp said:

    is the mini cooper #10242 retired in the UK. If it is seems like a super short period. It was released 2014

    Wow! Already???
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Why would it be? It's available and hasn't been out long?!
  • nike1664nike1664 Member Posts: 13
    On BS listing it gives availability for #10242 as UK 'til 21st Nov. You can still order from [email protected] though.
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    Have we not already established that TLG have changed the way the feed from [email protected] works, which means the automatic download at Brickset is not picking it up for the time being?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    More sets are now shown as 'sold out' at [email protected] US:
    City:

    #60008 Museum Break in
    #60022 Cargo Terminal
    #60056 City tow truck
    #60020 City Cargo truck

    Some are Check for availability:
    #60059 Logging truck
    #60061 Airport Fire truck

    Also creator:
    #7346 Seaside House
    #31009 Small Cottage

    Lord of the Rings

    #79008 Pirate Ship Ambush
    #79007 Battle at Black Gate
    #79005 Wizard Battle

    Hobbit:

    #79004 Barrel Escape
    #79013 Lake Town Chase

  • ChubblesChubbles Member Posts: 459
    What are people's thoughts on the pirate ship? Is now the cheapest it'll be or are we looking at a riser?
  • juggles7juggles7 Member Posts: 451
    I'm bearish on the Pirate Ship and how it'll do after retirement.. It's had some deep discounting at times, and the fact that it's been sold out at [email protected] for several days (a week?) but stock remains at Amazon, is not a good sign. It'll rise, almost everything does. It might be 20% higher than full retail this time next year, just enough for you to recover your fees and shipping costs, but clear nothing.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Wow...the TLG after-Christmas sale is anemic! I guess they EOL'd all the sets they really wanted to get rid of before the sale hit. TLG holiday sales just aren't what they used to be...
    brickupdate
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    Here's to January 1st!
  • bri4jennbri4jenn Member Posts: 96
    Does anyone know if th a Technic Grand Prix Racer #42000 has always been regularly online at $159.99 at a Toys R Us? I'm wondering if the in store price will be lower. Toys R Us seems to always raise prices on EOL sets online. Do they do the same with in store pricing?
  • TheBrickLaddTheBrickLadd Member Posts: 844
    What's everyone's thoughts on bennys spaceship? Seems to be sold out at a few places in UK?
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Probably just due to popularity at xmas tbh
  • TheBrickLaddTheBrickLadd Member Posts: 844
    It's also £56 at John Lewis so may pick up a couple
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    Farmer_John said:

    Wow...the TLG after-Christmas sale is anemic! I guess they EOL'd all the sets they really wanted to get rid of before the sale hit. TLG holiday sales just aren't what they used to be...

    There hasn't been a good TLG after-Christmas sale in forever.
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    Is it a good sale at the lego shop uk on jan 1st.Im just getting into this reselling business and just wondering if its usually any good.thanks
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    ^ Prepare to be disappointed. Seriously.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    romanstar said:

    Is it a good sale at the lego shop uk on jan 1st.Im just getting into this reselling business and just wondering if its usually any good.thanks

    Right now I'd forget about the lego sale and put your money into the larger Lego sets @ Tesco, if you have one local to you. There are always plenty of sales opportunities elsewhere.

  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    Hi Billy.Could you elaborate.Has anybody have any advice in regards to reselling.
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    lol.I was thinking specific advice.By the way,who is 'sally forth' Thanks smile:
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    Specific advice - know what you are investing in and buy it at the right price.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    romanstar said:

    Hi Billy.Could you elaborate.Has anybody have any advice in regards to reselling.</blockquote

    I could elaborate but I'd have a fee to charge for that ;-) This forum has a world of information and everyone has their own ideas. So get some cash outlay and prepare to research,research,research to start with. If it still appeals to you start offsmall, don't go too crazy. I went way OTT at first and had little cash to spare. But it's reaping rewards now.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited December 2014
    romanstar said:

    lol.I was thinking specific advice.By the way,who is 'sally forth' Thanks smile:

    You can't give specific advice for a general situation. I was not kidding in the least about reading this thread, ALL OF IT. If you come out the other end in one piece and still want to do Lego investing, you will have a surprising amount of insight and tools at your disposal as a result.

    That being said, you asked for specific advice, so I'll quote Warren Buffet.

    1) Don't lose money
    2) See rule 1
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Whats everyone's thoughts on #10937 pretty sure it's sold out worldwide now... so it's what eight years since the release of the last AA and six years since it retired and it's selling for roughly 130% return, personally I wouldn't want to hold that long 24 months roughly. I'd want to be seeing the 100% return on this one in this time, possible? I'm saying not. I'm saying there's other investments where this is more easily achievable though.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    Interesting selling prices for #7965 on ebay UK. Sales look to be heading in the direction of £200. I wasn't expecting such a jump straight away. Even if it drops off after Christmas, this one should be good for short term returns.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    mountebank said:

    Interesting selling prices for #7965 on ebay UK. Sales look to be heading in the direction of £200. I wasn't expecting such a jump straight away. Even if it drops off after Christmas, this one should be good for short term returns.

    Surprised me as well, considering its been discounted regularly and out for a decent length of time, I think it will dip a little before hitting £300 by Christmas 2015. Seems to have happened to quite a few sets this time around compared to last year.

  • BrickaholicBrickaholic Member Posts: 342
    CoraHarrison said:

    Whats everyone's thoughts on #10937 pretty sure it's sold out worldwide now... so it's what eight years since the release of the last AA and six years since it retired and it's selling for roughly 130% return, personally I wouldn't want to hold that long 24 months roughly. I'd want to be seeing the 100% return on this one in this time, possible? I'm saying not. I'm saying there's other investments where this is more easily achievable though.

    I would be massively shocked if it is not selling for double RRP + in 12 months time.

    brickupdateFollowsClosely
  • legoboy1066legoboy1066 Member Posts: 130
    CoraHarrison said:

    Whats everyone's thoughts on #10937 pretty sure it's sold out worldwide now... so it's what eight years since the release of the last AA and six years since it retired and it's selling for roughly 130% return, personally I wouldn't want to hold that long 24 months roughly. I'd want to be seeing the 100% return on this one in this time, possible? I'm saying not. I'm saying there's other investments where this is more easily achievable though.

    Has this set retired?
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    Billybrown said:

    mountebank said:

    Interesting selling prices for #7965 on ebay UK. Sales look to be heading in the direction of £200. I wasn't expecting such a jump straight away. Even if it drops off after Christmas, this one should be good for short term returns.

    Surprised me as well, considering its been discounted regularly and out for a decent length of time, I think it will dip a little before hitting £300 by Christmas 2015. Seems to have happened to quite a few sets this time around compared to last year.

    Biggest surprises for me were #21103 and #79003. I thought everyone had a stash of #79003 after last April's mad sales?

  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    mountebank said:

    Interesting selling prices for #7965 on ebay UK. Sales look to be heading in the direction of £200. I wasn't expecting such a jump straight away. Even if it drops off after Christmas, this one should be good for short term returns.

    Im selling them every day at £150. Taken them off sale for now hoping for more a big shock from me.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Brickaholic said:

    CoraHarrison said:

    Whats everyone's thoughts on #10937 pretty sure it's sold out worldwide now... so it's what eight years since the release of the last AA and six years since it retired and it's selling for roughly 130% return, personally I wouldn't want to hold that long 24 months roughly. I'd want to be seeing the 100% return on this one in this time, possible? I'm saying not. I'm saying there's other investments where this is more easily achievable though.

    I would be massively shocked if it is not selling for double RRP + in 12 months time.

    You think. Hmm got 2 in the 15% off. I'd keep saying surely a modular is a better investment than this... even the camper...
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic Member Posts: 342
    CoraHarrison said:

    Brickaholic said:

    CoraHarrison said:

    Whats everyone's thoughts on #10937 pretty sure it's sold out worldwide now... so it's what eight years since the release of the last AA and six years since it retired and it's selling for roughly 130% return, personally I wouldn't want to hold that long 24 months roughly. I'd want to be seeing the 100% return on this one in this time, possible? I'm saying not. I'm saying there's other investments where this is more easily achievable though.

    I would be massively shocked if it is not selling for double RRP + in 12 months time.

    You think. Hmm got 2 in the 15% off. I'd keep saying surely a modular is a better investment than this... even the camper...
    Time will tell eh?

  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    I thought #79003 would do well but will it continue to do well now that The Hobbit is done? That film franchise might fade quite quickly.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    edited December 2014
    CoraHarrison said:

    Whats everyone's thoughts on #10937 pretty sure it's sold out worldwide now... so it's what eight years since the release of the last AA and six years since it retired and it's selling for roughly 130% return, personally I wouldn't want to hold that long 24 months roughly. I'd want to be seeing the 100% return on this one in this time, possible? I'm saying not. I'm saying there's other investments where this is more easily achievable though.

    IMO You cannot compare it to the first AA set that was released though IMO. That set rose because, if memory serves me correctly, LEGO batman video game did not really take off until the set line was near EOL. The Batman stuff initially sold poorly which also accounts for its meteoric rise once gone. (I believe AAs were on 'sale' forever in the US at TRUs for about 50% off).
    Now this AA (#10937) was not purchased as much due to its price, but it could be had on discount before the exclusives ban in the US, though not many times was it on sale.
    I would say as long as LEGO does not re-design one in a year or two it will rise fairly well. Right now it is going for about 250-280 on eBay in the US right now and it just 'sold out'. I would say it should rise somewhat similar to the #10210 Imperial Flagship. If this keeps rising like it is now, it could be around 300-350 by, or after, next Christmas.
    legoboy1066 said:


    Has this set retired?

    Well it is sold out at LEGO, and by all accounts is meshing with their standard time frame for it being in production, and appears to be sold out everywhere.
    mountebank said:

    I thought #79003 would do well but will it continue to do well now that The Hobbit is done? That film franchise might fade quite quickly.

    I would not be investing any money into Hobbit or LoTR, with the tower or helms deep as exceptions, as it appears many stacked sets (including #79003 when on sale last season). Combined with the seeming lack of demand for these, I just do not see these rising much.
    CoraHarrison
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    edited December 2014
    As ever it depends on your market and your buying price. #79003 at £30 earlier this year works for me for sale in the UK. The only question is whether to sell out in the next few months or to take a punt and wait till next Christmas.
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Reseller advice.... Well.... DYOR as there's no right or wrong answer! Bought at the right price the worst selling sets are profitable! Bought at the wrong price and the most popular sets won't make you a penny!
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88
    My top 3 sets to buy to resell in the future:

    Arham Asylum the new one
    Lonely Mountain
    Minecraft the Mine

    Here is why:

    Asylum is a huge set and at 250$ minumum, not many can afford. So when it discountinues everyone will be missing it and realize they loved the build and great minifgs. Im guessing it will sell for great numbers.

    Lonely Mountain is the only way to get Smaug and on ebay Smaug alone sells for 70$ so its aa given, plus those rare sans green pieces help.

    Minecraft the Mine is huge and once the first wave retires everyone will want the largest set from the line because most kids if given a 100$ shopping spree would rather buy 4 small sets rather than 1 large set. Once they realize the mine is crucial to a completed boxed collection prices will rocket.

    My opinion but let me know which of these 3 am I closest on.
    brickupdate
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    The mine has just come out, you'd be mental to invest in that now!
  • koozkooz Member Posts: 158
    CoraHarrison said:

    Whats everyone's thoughts on #10937 pretty sure it's sold out worldwide now... so it's what eight years since the release of the last AA and six years since it retired and it's selling for roughly 130% return, personally I wouldn't want to hold that long 24 months roughly. I'd want to be seeing the 100% return on this one in this time, possible? I'm saying not. I'm saying there's other investments where this is more easily achievable though.

    It's going to be huge. On top of everyone else's comments, it's a fantastic set with a ton of great minifigs, excellent playability, an amazing look, and a great license. This is damn near a perfect set. Even if they redesign it in a few years, it'll be tough to top this one.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    kooz said:

    CoraHarrison said:

    Whats everyone's thoughts on #10937 pretty sure it's sold out worldwide now... so it's what eight years since the release of the last AA and six years since it retired and it's selling for roughly 130% return, personally I wouldn't want to hold that long 24 months roughly. I'd want to be seeing the 100% return on this one in this time, possible? I'm saying not. I'm saying there's other investments where this is more easily achievable though.

    It's going to be huge. On top of everyone else's comments, it's a fantastic set with a ton of great minifigs, excellent playability, an amazing look, and a great license. This is damn near a perfect set. Even if they redesign it in a few years, it'll be tough to top this one.
    Also, I think that the retirement of this set caught many people somewhat offguard. I thought that I had another year to buy this set.
    kooz
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    Dang, really? I thought I had way more time on Arkham Asylum too. Disappointed to look at eBay and see it is already at $250.

    LEGO has so many sets these days I'm having difficulty keeping up with which sets are "new" and which are about to retire.
    chuckpbrickupdateTXLegoguyLegoKipPurploros
  • chuckpchuckp Member Posts: 684
    samiam391 said:

    ...LEGO has so many sets these days I'm having difficulty keeping up with which sets are "new" and which are about to retire.

    ^ This is so true. I really wish LEGO gave a better heads up with the "Retiring soon" tags, but they are pretty inconsistent.
    TXLegoguyPurploros
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Arkham has many elements for a terrific set including lots of good minifigs, a fairly unique vehicle, a fun build, and a very interesting playset as a result.

    I feel like this set will be bought for AFOLS and kids making the demand even greater. It may very well do better than Town Hall and R2, even though they left a big more abruptly.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    TheLoneTensor said:

    romanstar said:

    Hi Billy.Could you elaborate.Has anybody have any advice in regards to reselling.

    Look near the bottom of this page and you'll see something like...

    « 1 … 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 »

    Click on the "1" and sally forth.
    romanstar said:

    lol.I was thinking specific advice.By the way,who is 'sally forth' Thanks smile:

    "Sally forth!!"

    I couldn't resist ;)

    TheLoneTensorBuriedinBricks
  • wayneggwaynegg Member Posts: 394
    With the talk of Jokerland, I've been thinking a lot about 6857. It retired a year or so ago but can still be found here and there. What are the chances of this being a good short term investment?
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp Member Posts: 1,021
    Anyone know whats happening with #75021, is it just sold out at Lego because of the Christmas sales or is it EOL?
  • edgarallanpoe14edgarallanpoe14 Member Posts: 18
    Myer in Australia were doing a buy 2 get 1 free promotion so I cracked and picked up three #70810 Metalbeard's Sea Cows. I want to keep one to build but I'm wondering whether to flip the other two, or if it might be worthwhile to wait and see what happens. I kind of have a feeling that it's not going to be around for years and years because as the Lego Movie fades into the distance its marketability and the marketability of other Lego Movie merchandise decreases. Very expensive too, and the primary audience of the film being the 14 and under crowd I really wonder whether the set's got legs.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I think the returns will be very average (1.5x retail), only spiking when a new movie comes out, and then dying down again after the release.
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