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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The stock must go up and down as people order, credit cards don't go through, orders cancel, whatever...

    The system just let me place 1 more order before going out of stock again.

    Crazy, but fun...
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    I just got 1 more in, and now it shows 'out of stock online'

    Was able to get 6 in total, its funny how I could have bought them all day long yesterday but didn't and now that they were becoming unobtainable I had to have more..
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    just one?
    I have 10 already, and need some room for Dec. 26 purchases.
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    And 1 more.. showing 6 left in stock now.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    It's amusing to me that these are selling like hotcakes for such a high price on Amazon while the people listing them at auction on eBay are barely making MSRP. May have to try and pick up a few on eBay if that keeps up.
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    What I find kind of funny is how easy I will buy multiple quantities online, but how I turn into a wimp at the Lego store. I bought about 10 Imperial Flagship online at the Black Friday sale and later that weekend worked my way over to the local store where they still had several in stock and only walked out with 2. Maybe if they had a shopping cart at the B&M store it would feel less "weird", or maybe it's the act of having to carry it out to the car, not sure...I was even getting free PaB at the store so the deal was pretty good, although online I was going through RewardsRunner for 10% cashback.

    I had this same hesitation when I was buying 10155...I ended up with 4 of them over 2 trips before I started getting "shy" about buying more in the retail store.

    Alternatively since I do so much buying online, I have enough cardboard boxes to "pave" my 1 acre backyard!
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Member Posts: 4,401
    Billund, Denmark - Due to the recent overwhelming demand for their Emerald Night train set, TLG, in an unprecedented move, announced earlier today that they would extend the production run on this set another 2 years while also reducing the set price to $50 USD and including 3 all new hobo Minifigures.

    Soon after the news broke, riots broke out in affluent suburban neighborhoods across the U.S. while parades were scheduled throughout the more subdued UK. "I don't know what I'm going to do...I don't deserve this, I was building a house...game over... game over man," tweeted LegoFanTexas, one of the former U.S. speculators.

    UK fan, Matthew Littleowl was in a more festive mood. "I am rather happy with this as I just wanted one but all my quid had been mostly tied up in me Harry Potter polybags, " he notes. Matthew did add, though, "I think I might wait a bit to see if it goes down again."
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    edited December 2011
    ^ ROTFLMAO. Nice. Anyone care to break a set and sell me some of them hobos?
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    Bravo, lol.
  • MinifigsMeMinifigsMe Member Posts: 2,844
    Thanks @yellowcastle. I think we needed some light heartedness!
    You yanks are nuts with your stock checking!
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    @yellowcastle ! BRILLIANT!! LOL!!!
  • LostInTranslationLostInTranslation UKMember Posts: 5,558
    @yellowcastle: lol! Genius!
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited December 2011
    It's amusing to me that these are selling like hotcakes for such a high price on Amazon while the people listing them at auction on eBay are barely making MSRP. May have to try and pick up a few on eBay if that keeps up.
    Who says they are selling on Amazon?

    The market price for th EN is what you see on people paying final prices for on eBay; not what somebody is attempting to get on Amazon. I could list some ENs on Amazon right now for $150; doesn't mean anybody is buying.
  • Si_UKNZSi_UKNZ NZMember Posts: 4,179
    edited December 2011
    lol @ 375 :)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @Yellowcastle Brilliant way to wake up - laughed out loud - thanks!
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224

    @avoiceoreason I would say that myself and @LegoFanTexas seem to be the two big "hoarders" of this set on this forum thread.
    Not the only ones. I have 25. ;)

    @yellowcastle: excellent post; definitely want the Hobos!

    In response to the "akin to tulipmania" thread - that thread should have been closed after one post that simply reads: Yes.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    So now that EM is gone, what is next?

    We all seem to agree that Endor and IF are gone, yes? Tantive IV as well?

    What else is gone for sure?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    It's amusing to me that these are selling like hotcakes for such a high price on Amazon while the people listing them at auction on eBay are barely making MSRP. May have to try and pick up a few on eBay if that keeps up.
    Not selling on amazon at this price. Market price is $100 according to ebay. After fees and shipping it is a wash right now unless you got them for $75 from TRU. The problem with this set is it has no power functions and is not part of a series. I have a few myself but not expecting to be able to get more than $120 on ebay. Funnily enough I expect the 7937 to do better in terms of profit when it goes late 2012, early 2013....it can be used with alot of sets. Maersk train is a different story....that blue means lots of green down the track.

  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @doriansdad Why does the train station 7937 interest you? Seems they regularly put these out (as they do something like the Police Station) and it doesn't contain any particularly rare parts that I am aware of.

    @LegoFanTexas - maybe you better stock up on Prince of Persia! They have been trying to retire that for a long time now, it seems, but simply have too much stock. I'm thinking Star Wars hoth battle packs may be a good "investment," though shelves have been overflowing with those for a long time now. Not the same draw as the Clone Walker Battle Packs perhaps.
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    edited December 2011
    @doriansdad Only time will tell of course, but I think Amazon has a larger market share than Ebay these days, no? And they were selling all the way up to $150 for the price to get that high.

    Not that anyone wants to waste the time, but you can find out if sales are being made on Amazon. You add 1 train from every seller and then bump the individual stock counts up to get the exact total number available from all sellers. Do the same thing tonight and compare the numbers (you'd have to make sure no additional sellers came in during the time in between).

    Anyway, kind of a silly discussion at this point as only time will be the true judge...and we really need at least 12 mos to get a reasonable idea.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited December 2011
    Certainly it's appropriate the 90% of this forum topic is focused on $100+ sets. But Doriansdad brings up a good point about 7937 Trains Station and those $50 range sets that can sometimes crack $200 in the aftermarket. That type of return can exceed the years of patience some $100 sets take to reach $400, or 400%.

    A few notable ones, IMO, that are great mid-rangers.
    Lighthouse
    Cad Bane's Speeder
    Western Train Toy Story (Retails for $85 but readily available for less)
    Burrow
    Alien Mothership
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    I remember a seller saying something similar on a LEGO forum months back: that the real money is not in buying a lot of Death Stars at $400 and waiting for them to double to $800, it's in the smaller sets. That a $10 set can double to $20 or $30 in value very quickly and have a larger audience of customers who can afford it.

    For me, the larger sets are appealing because once they get out of reach, they are extremely out of reach. I won't pay $1500 for UCS Falcon.
  • avoiceoreasonavoiceoreason Member Posts: 224
    edited December 2011
    Oops! (had a double post there)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    A question on the AC series. Earth Defense is retired, looks like it anyways. But the rest still seem available. Should I purchase all the AC stuff I want before year end, you think?
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited December 2011
    It can't be that retired, considering it's currently in stock at Lego.com.

    On that note, I have a gut feeling about the future demand for 7051 (Tripod Invader). You can currently buy them for $15 in most places ($13.50 this week @ Target), so it's cheap enough to buy several at a time. It's a perfect little set to fuel your War of the Worlds-esque Lego city invasions. And each one comes with a Clinger.

    Scale-wise, I wish this was a $40-50 set so that it would actually be taller than most City buildings, but then I wouldn't be able to buy a lot of them. So I'm ok with it being a small set.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,710
    edited December 2011
    I remember a seller saying something similar on a LEGO forum months back: that the real money is not in buying a lot of Death Stars at $400 and waiting for them to double to $800, it's in the smaller sets. That a $10 set can double to $20 or $30 in value very quickly and have a larger audience of customers who can afford it.

    For me, the larger sets are appealing because once they get out of reach, they are extremely out of reach. I won't pay $1500 for UCS Falcon.
    The only problem with that is the smaller sets are hit and miss.. No one knew that the Cat woman Batman or Mr. Freeze sets would take off (anyone saying they did is lying, or a millionaire :-) ).. Take the Ostrich race.. those will never go up and if they do, then lord knows how long you have to hold on to those until they do.. is it lucrative? Depends how many you buy as well and how much you pay for that bulk...
    If you are buying 100 of a set at 10 dollars per you better be darn sure it will rise.. Where as the bigger sets, like mods, will go up in price only because those sets are not bought as much and therefore to increase fairly.
    Also depends on how many people decided to do the same thing with that set...
    All things considered you wil make your money..

    I guess it is a question of endurance, do you want to 'sprint' or do you want to 'jog'?
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    I think that mid-range ($50 sets) can be a good investment that is often overlooked, but that small sets ($10-$20 sets) suffer from the problems of having to do lots of volume and shipping expenses being high relative to the value of the set.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Alien Conquest is indeed a theme that I feel could be unappreciated while available, and an instant classic once retired. I am hoping for some decent sales on this stuff after Christmas.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    @andystar - that puts me over 40 ordered, I think. That is ordered, who knows if I'll get them all.

    I suspect I'll really end up with 30, who knows. Maybe in a week or two I'll line them all up and take a picture. ;)
    I want to see the picture, and actually use it with my wife to justify my meager purchases. ;-)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    As a side note on potential sell outs, I haven't purchased a single Lego Cars themed set. I didn't like the move (Pixar's worst IMO), and the Cars lego sets almost seem borderline "Duplo" to me. I might (and it's a big might) get some for parts if they drop to 25% SRP. I do have several different toy story sets (I actually think the Toy Story Train is a sleeper...perhaps a couple years out), which I purchased below $50 each. The Toy Story magnets may also be good long-term since they aren't glued.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    @Farmer_John - Haven't gotten any shipping confirmations from Target yet on the Emerald Nights, so no assurance they will actually ship.

    Stopped by my Lego store today, they had none and said no more were coming, same with Imperial Flagship, those are gone.

    AT-AT was gone, they had a single Hogwarts Express left, picked that one up, had a single 10199, picked that one up, had a few Burrows left, but left them on the shelf.

    They did have the Wedding set, picked up 4 of those, and picked up 4 bags of Grab Bag parts, the guy said that half of them was PAB wall stuff and the other half was a few Mindstorm sets they had damaged, he said there was a single motor or sensor in each bag, but no more than that.

    Grabbed a few things for the kids, and hey, they still had the Pick-A-Brick boxes, got 6 more of those, one for each $75 spent. I might go back and pickup a few more things to get more, those are fun! :)

    The holiday sets were of course all gone, but they do have plenty FB, GE, and DS in stock, the assistant manager was there, she said that honestly she has no idea if those are staying or going, they keep hearing different things but don't really know.
  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    Hey guys,

    I am new and I am loving the discussions here. :)

    When do you guys think is the best time to sell retired Lego sets? I have quite a few that I want to sell and I am thinking Christmas time is the best time to do this.

    But I wasn't sure if it really affects anything or not. Because I know it doesn't affect me. :)
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    So now that EM is gone, what is next?

    We all seem to agree that Endor and IF are gone, yes? Tantive IV as well?

    What else is gone for sure?
    @legofantexas has not bought enough, he needs more!
    LOL

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    @Farmer_John - Haven't gotten any shipping confirmations from Target yet on the Emerald Nights, so no assurance they will actually ship.
    Okay...where are you storing all these boxes you are purchasing? Do you have an extra bedroom? You gotta put all your boxes in a single area and take a picture. The rest of us who do not have a wife as understanding as yours need the pic to at least buy some time.

    On topic, I will be really surprised if the GE is gone. I could see Obi-Wan's speeder going away a year ago though. HP has to be gone as well. I found a Hogwart's express at Wallyworld today that was at list price, but didn't get it. In fact, this particular WMT appeared to have tons of Legos, which is odd for this time of year. I guess the economy must be worse than I thought. I'm still waiting for the post-Christmas sales at [email protected] That is when we will know what's gone for good.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @LegoFanTexas Thanks for the store update! I have to check into the stores in my area.
    I think one or two of my Target EN's shipped.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited December 2011
    Who says they are selling on Amazon?

    The market price for th EN is what you see on people paying final prices for on eBay; not what somebody is attempting to get on Amazon. I could list some ENs on Amazon right now for $150; doesn't mean anybody is buying.
    You can actually watch the items on Amazon and see them go for these nutty prices. But the point about Amazon being a more frequented market is likely valid. Oh well. I only have five myself, and don't intend to sell them anytime soon.

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Also... I could be crazy, but I swore Amazon had over 999 Grand Emporiums last night... and now they're gone with only one third-party retailer selling them at MSRP. Maybe I'm remembering that incorrectly, though.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Amazon must be goosing their inventory numbers, I've seen this on several Lego sets the past week. Off-Road power was done the same way.

    Amazon may well be getting more in, Lego seems to flip between back ordered and sold out, then call, then back to back ordered.

    My local Lego store did restock, they had plenty. I've got 4 of them put back for now, thinking I might pickup 2 more.
  • mnbvcmnbvc Member Posts: 136
    I still can't help but wonder if people's fear that FB might go has led to a surge of orders (whilst GE has been neglected - resellers focusing on FB, and owners already having a copy)...and GE might quit out first.

    If that happens, I can imagine FB not gaining much in value in the after market and GE being relatively 'scarce' (not the extent of CC, of course!). Who knows...
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,289
    edited December 2011
    I remember a seller saying something similar on a LEGO forum months back: that the real money is not in buying a lot of Death Stars at $400 and waiting for them to double to $800, it's in the smaller sets. That a $10 set can double to $20 or $30 in value very quickly and have a larger audience of customers who can afford it.
    Here you go: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/265/advice-for-selling-on-ebay-amazon-and-bricklink

    I think the last post in the thread sums it up nicely... but I'm biased, because I made that last post
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,289
    So now that EM is gone, what is next?
    I'm curious: is there a reason you abbreviate it EM and not EN? :P

  • LostInTranslationLostInTranslation UKMember Posts: 5,558
    ^ I've been wondering the same thing :-)
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    @madforlegos - I think this point sums up the situation quite well. The #7779 and #7884 sets have yielded massive profit to date, because there has been no replacement set and they were not well bought. That of course is about to change with a re-release of the new superhero sets.

    Hoarding lots of the PoP sets #7570 or #7571 will prove fruitless if there are other ostriches and camels released: however, if not, and you can cope with trying to sell 200 through bricklink or elsewhere, you may well feel better off for it (and have a handful of other brown/tan parts to add to profit).

    Not many people will bother to buy $1,000 worth of ostriches (even at sub $10/£10 a set), but in the event that there ain't any more released and there's suddenly a run on an ostrich, you'll do really well.

    However, I haven't watched the aftermarket for anywhere near as long as others (such as @rocao), but if bought at the right price even the part value of the medium-sized sets is likely to underpin your investment. You can still obtain the parts you might need for a market street #10190 for way under what the complete set is actually selling for.
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    Well if you want to part out sets, that changes the whole equation. Not sure everyone has an interest in going through all that effort.
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    No, that's fair - my point about Catwoman and Mr Freeze is that they are in these small sets (but few other interesting pieces) and can't be found elsewhere - so you can't sensibly reconstruct the set yourself and people are willing to pay $80+ to get the catwoman and batman minifigs. Now you wouldn't perhaps want to reconstruct #7571, but if you want camels...

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    So now that EM is gone, what is next?
    I'm curious: is there a reason you abbreviate it EM and not EN? :P

    Typo? :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    It's worth noting, now that we're on the subject, specific unique parts can play a critical role in a set's aftermarket value (maybe not ostriches). Those certain parts can make a set very valuable. And it doesn't have to be the obvious Mr. Freeze or Catwoman. If you're smart, you can figure this out when the set is active.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    I think the Tantive IV (10198) may be gone for good. I thought it was gone last year, but with the Black Friday sale a couple weeks ago this may be it. TLG cleared out some inventory with the sale and additional Christmas purchases may have done the rest. I picked up a couple on BF, but still think the EN and IF are better purchases for the buck. JMO.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I take back what I said about Emerald Night. I had no problem moving them at $149... which still blows my mind, given that they were much cheaper not even five days ago.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The people buying at $149 don't know or probably care what they cost a week ago. There are plenty of people who don't see that amount as huge, they just want what they want.

    I have no doubt that EN will go for over $200 at some point, $300 is not out of the question.
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