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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • lordzaraklordzarak OH, United StatesMember Posts: 329
    I did notice that. The red flag that something was up was some weird random set was the top seller. I think it was a magnet or something. I figured that maybe that magnet was 90% off. No, it was just a system bug that allowed everything into the list in no determinable order.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,388
    edited December 2014
    Farmer_John said:

    But the rule (not the exception) is that once a set is "sold out," then it's sold. So those holding out for the TH, GE, AA, HH, etc. to be re-released may have a long and disappointing wait.


    These are probably the same people who belong to a special club that hope Lego will re release a UCS MF, Cafe Corner and hope Lego keeps LOTR alive. I can see them all huddled around a campfire telling scary Lego stories. "I had the UCS Millennium Falcon in my hands and I had buyers remorse at the last second and never purchased it (people gasping and storyteller sobbing). I did, however, purchased a Construct-A-Zurg because I thought it was cool".



    black_towrRonyarRainstorm26BumblepantsSupersympaminicoopers11LostInTranslationstreekermdelleman
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112

    Did anyone else happen to notice about a week ago that when you clicked on the "Top Sellers" instead of showing just the top 25 best selling items, it showed EVERYTHING.

    Unfortunately I did not get a screen capture but I did notice that the lowest mainstream set was #75020 Jabba's Sail Barge.

    Where do you find the top sellers page on lego website?
  • lordzaraklordzarak OH, United StatesMember Posts: 329
    The top seller link is on their shop's main page. If you use a mobile device, you have to switch the site to desktop mode (link at the very bottom of any page)
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    Still can't see it, does it work on uk site?
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I have an order from Amazon.fr on the 29th for two Sopwith Camels that still shows "Not Yet Shipped". Does anyone have experience there? What should I expect?
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2014
    ^I'm not sure what you can expect; however, I can relate a similar situation with Amazon.es. I ordered a #10221 SSD from Amazon.es on November 4. They sent me an email the other day saying they're still trying to fulfill my order (or something to that effect). I'm definitely not expecting my order to ever ship, but if it did, it would be awesome!
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 899
    .es always do that, I have orders from 6 months ago still pending lol
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    FatMatt said:

    I have an order from Amazon.fr on the 29th for two Sopwith Camels that still shows "Not Yet Shipped". Does anyone have experience there? What should I expect?

    My experience has been all over the place with Amazon.fr. I used to order a box of CMFs from Amazon.fr (I'm in the USA) because they had such great prices. In fact, the prices they had included the VAT, so when I ordered the price actually dropped by 15% (I believe). Those days have long since passed as Amazon.fr no longer ships to the USA (at least for me). So CMFs were great! However, I ordered a cargo train set #7939 (again, because of the great price) and it arrived sheared completely in half. Because it was Amazon, it wasn't too difficult to ship back. My thoughts are that Amazon.fr is great; however, the shipping companies (plural) are a risk.

    Interestingly enough, I ordered a Technic helicopter #9396 from Amazon in GB, and it arrived in perfect condition. So on the whole, my experience ordering from overseas has been pretty good.
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    ^^^ @nkx1 I too have an amazon.es order (of a #10211) from October sometime in the same position - my translation is not great but they do keep updating about the delay in expected arrival time! Really not expecting anything but I guess if one was ever returned, you never know!
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    edited December 2014
    Super SSD seems to be taking off in price... Anyone else think this will be 600 + come January? (that UK BTW!)
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 814
    ^ I don't think it will be. We'll have to see what the next 12 months brings on that one.
    Might be £700 in the next year but it's dependant on how many people are holding.
    It's been a pretty amazing last quarter with all the exclusive retirements if you've managed to get them and then there's also been some good profit to be had from some sets this Christmas such as BTTF DeLorean, Destiny's Bounty, Winter Cottage, and Technic Helicopter all dependent on what price you paid on them obviously.

    With the amount of great sets retiring it will be interesting to see what happens to the aftermarket prices of them all in the next 18 months, I'm sure SSD will keep climbing, just not sure at what rate. It's a tough call.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,092
    Lego.com must be overburdened right now. I haven’t been able to access my orders account for the past couple days. I (by sheer dumb luck) placed 5 orders for AA on cyber Monday. I received notification for shipping of one of the orders but all 5 showed up today.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...I've had problems logging into my Lego account. In fact, I usually keep five sets in the queue for "save for later" so that I can quickly grab any one of the top five sets on my "want" list. The couple times I've actually been able to open up my account my entire wish/want list is missing. It's kind of annoying until I realize that most of their sets are sold out... ;-)
  • edgarallanpoe14edgarallanpoe14 Member Posts: 18
    If anyone in Australia still wants a Town Hall, Myer are doing 'buy one get one 50% off' ending today. Free shipping on orders over $100. I had to ring up a few stores but eventually managed to find two at Miranda for what was an effective $225 each, though there appeared to be scattered stock elsewhere. Plenty of Farnsworth Houses and #7965 Millennium Falcons as well. They also have the Grand Emporium listed as 'New' in the catalogue so maybe they know something we don't, lol.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    I've had problems logging into my Lego account also. I had to delete all my cookies (related to lego.com) from the browser (Frefox). Afterwards the login worked fine.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259

    If anyone in Australia still wants a Town Hall, Myer are doing 'buy one get one 50% off' ending today. Free shipping on orders over $100. I had to ring up a few stores but eventually managed to find two at Miranda for what was an effective $225 each, though there appeared to be scattered stock elsewhere. Plenty of Farnsworth Houses and #7965 Millennium Falcons as well. They also have the Grand Emporium listed as 'New' in the catalogue so maybe they know something we don't, lol.

    Myer must have got a lot of the Modulars in, I've seen a bunch around the place still, even with the sale. But I also know a lot have been selling.

    $225 is a good price, even better it's only $188USD, (Due to our bad exchange rate.)

    The GE being listed as "new" gave me a bit of a chuckle. I wouldn't read anything into it as It is new to Myer (David Jones has had the exclusive on Modulars for a few years until now.) and they like to list stuff like that as "new".

    GE and TH showing up at Myer is just a latest in a few "exclusive" type sets that seem to hit our stores once they have gone from over seas retail. Diagon Alley, Winter Village Bakery & Cottage plus the Mars rover were all available here for a time after the US and UK seemed to have sold out.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,085
    Basta said:

    If anyone in Australia still wants a Town Hall, Myer are doing 'buy one get one 50% off' ending today. Free shipping on orders over $100. I had to ring up a few stores but eventually managed to find two at Miranda for what was an effective $225 each, though there appeared to be scattered stock elsewhere. Plenty of Farnsworth Houses and #7965 Millennium Falcons as well. They also have the Grand Emporium listed as 'New' in the catalogue so maybe they know something we don't, lol.

    Myer must have got a lot of the Modulars in, I've seen a bunch around the place still, even with the sale. But I also know a lot have been selling.

    $225 is a good price, even better it's only $188USD, (Due to our bad exchange rate.)

    The GE being listed as "new" gave me a bit of a chuckle. I wouldn't read anything into it as It is new to Myer (David Jones has had the exclusive on Modulars for a few years until now.) and they like to list stuff like that as "new".

    GE and TH showing up at Myer is just a latest in a few "exclusive" type sets that seem to hit our stores once they have gone from over seas retail. Diagon Alley, Winter Village Bakery & Cottage plus the Mars rover were all available here for a time after the US and UK seemed to have sold out.
    Let's all road trip it to Australia!
    LegoKipDougoutprevereFollowsClosely
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    A couple months ago it seemed like every old-timer and his mother were complaining that Lego investing had hit critical mass and only doom and gloom lie ahead. I have maintained the position that Lego investing is still in its infancy, and I think recent market performance bares that out. I'm very encouraged with the performance of Fire Brigade, Arkham, Town Hall, HH, and even Heavy Lift Heli is starting to move up a little.

    Here's the most important point to remember - during other bubbles (baseball cards, gold, tech stocks, comic books, whatever!) the media went FULL BLAST reporting on the surge in popularity of the endeavor. What are you hearing in the news on Lego investing? A Big FAT ZERO is what you're hearing. Remember that, and watch for a change. When Lego investing hits critical mass, you'll know it, and it ain't yet.

    I'd be interested in how others view the current secondary market
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,424

    Basta said:

    If anyone in Australia still wants a Town Hall, Myer are doing 'buy one get one 50% off' ending today. Free shipping on orders over $100. I had to ring up a few stores but eventually managed to find two at Miranda for what was an effective $225 each, though there appeared to be scattered stock elsewhere. Plenty of Farnsworth Houses and #7965 Millennium Falcons as well. They also have the Grand Emporium listed as 'New' in the catalogue so maybe they know something we don't, lol.

    Myer must have got a lot of the Modulars in, I've seen a bunch around the place still, even with the sale. But I also know a lot have been selling.

    $225 is a good price, even better it's only $188USD, (Due to our bad exchange rate.)

    The GE being listed as "new" gave me a bit of a chuckle. I wouldn't read anything into it as It is new to Myer (David Jones has had the exclusive on Modulars for a few years until now.) and they like to list stuff like that as "new".

    GE and TH showing up at Myer is just a latest in a few "exclusive" type sets that seem to hit our stores once they have gone from over seas retail. Diagon Alley, Winter Village Bakery & Cottage plus the Mars rover were all available here for a time after the US and UK seemed to have sold out.
    Let's all road trip it to Australia!
    If they had supersonic flights to Australia I would consider it.
  • LockeLocke Member Posts: 10
    It's not discontinuing in the near future, but I'd be curious about your opinions on Benny's Spaceship3. I picked one up for a gift during the Walmart sale that it looks like I'm not going to need. Now, I'm debating keeping it vs returning it and could use some advice from the experts here.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,424
    edited December 2014
    Locke said:

    It's not discontinuing in the near future, but I'd be curious about your opinions on Benny's Spaceship3. I picked one up for a gift during the Walmart sale that it looks like I'm not going to need. Now, I'm debating keeping it vs returning it and could use some advice from the experts here.

    If found on sale I would buy one to keep. I do not expect it to rise dramatically after EOL, but that is just me. I guess if it EOL's tomorrow yes, but if it is around for another year I'm not sure how well it will do. I guess it would also depend on if LEGO Movie 2 has it, but they do not make it again, OR if LEGO happens to redo classic space, which I do not really see happening either.
    Also I'm guessing it will still be found for 20% off (or more) if it is still around next year
    Just my 2 cents
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Two questions: Do you need the money you spent on it? How long are you okay holding? I would guess the set will be around well into next year, and it doesn't appear to be worth flipping right now. So if you're not pressed for cash you can put it away and wait, or you can return it (or just resell it to break even) and get some thing else you want.
  • LockeLocke Member Posts: 10
    Thanks for the advice; I really appreciate the input. The only other unopened set that I have is a Quinjet 6869 that I got on a similar discount, and that isn't doing fantastic, either. I guess this is a case of, "trust your instincts, unless your instincts are terrible."
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878

    Basta said:

    If anyone in Australia still wants a Town Hall, Myer are doing 'buy one get one 50% off' ending today. Free shipping on orders over $100. I had to ring up a few stores but eventually managed to find two at Miranda for what was an effective $225 each, though there appeared to be scattered stock elsewhere. Plenty of Farnsworth Houses and #7965 Millennium Falcons as well. They also have the Grand Emporium listed as 'New' in the catalogue so maybe they know something we don't, lol.

    Myer must have got a lot of the Modulars in, I've seen a bunch around the place still, even with the sale. But I also know a lot have been selling.

    $225 is a good price, even better it's only $188USD, (Due to our bad exchange rate.)

    The GE being listed as "new" gave me a bit of a chuckle. I wouldn't read anything into it as It is new to Myer (David Jones has had the exclusive on Modulars for a few years until now.) and they like to list stuff like that as "new".

    GE and TH showing up at Myer is just a latest in a few "exclusive" type sets that seem to hit our stores once they have gone from over seas retail. Diagon Alley, Winter Village Bakery & Cottage plus the Mars rover were all available here for a time after the US and UK seemed to have sold out.
    Let's all road trip it to Australia!
    If they had supersonic flights to Australia I would consider it.
    A 10000-series Concorde sounds like a excellent idea for a set.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    The sets that are most likely to do well on the secondary market are Lego interpretations of classic scenes and situations. At first blush Star Wars would appear not to fit with this theory. However, Star Wars is as classic as The Wizard of Oz. Nothing from the Lego Movie really stand apart as having that quality. Your money is probably better spent elsewhere.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Thanks magrot
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,388
    edited December 2014
    "Magrot"? Is that Groots mother?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,388
    edited December 2014
    This subject has been discussed many times in many threads :)

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/7043/the-community-perspective-on-reselling/p58
  • thedingman5thedingman5 Great Lakes, USAMember Posts: 240
    And #10235 has moved to "Call for Product Availability on S&H. Early sign of EOL, or temporary status?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,424

    And #10235 has moved to "Call for Product Availability on S&H. Early sign of EOL, or temporary status?

    Based on the previous sets in the line, likely EOL.
  • PhoneboothPhonebooth USMember Posts: 1,430
    Someone please delete this thread and refund me the last 10 seconds of my life back.
    Pitfall69
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,237
    ^I take it I wasn't the only one who saw the title and wonder where OH was meant to be and what the OP might be selling? ;-)
    cheshirecat
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    It is starting to feel like we've entered some kind of lord of the rings experiment and the mods have all just left us to it.
    Shib
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,237
    ^do you mean Lord of the flies?
    cheshirecatPitfall69
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    Yes, yes I did. (been watching too much Phineas and Ferb as well!)
    ShibLostInTranslation
  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    I love reseller, I will serve him in this life and next.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,016
    So is samiam changing his name to samneric?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,016
    enotoga said:

    The sets that are most likely to do well on the secondary market are Lego interpretations of classic scenes and situations. At first blush Star Wars would appear not to fit with this theory. However, Star Wars is as classic as The Wizard of Oz. Nothing from the Lego Movie really stand apart as having that quality. Your money is probably better spent elsewhere.

    It is difficult to say that though, in the sense that the lego movie is a new film and cannot therefore be a classic yet; scenes in it may not also be classic either. However, imagine one of the characters was reused in a new film and become the wanted character, with new collectors wanting the "rookie" version of that character too. TLM was / is highly successful, and with new movies too, it is likely to remain highly successful. If / when they release the boxset TLM trilogy in a few years, no doubt people with kids only just born or not even born yet will want earlier sets.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 899
    Chatting to local lego store today and they inform me that there are more #10233 HE on the way, apparently they sold out purely due to the sale because there's no new train planned for release yet so it won't be retired just yet. AA is however retired now he told me!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Well there were two trains released earlier this year (#60051 and #60052), so I'm not expecting much in in the trains theme for at least another year. As for the HE, an extra $20 will get you the #60051 High Speed Passenger Train that comes with power functions and a track. With the #10233 HE now being available for nearly two years, the lack of general interest based on very few comments, and the cannibalization by the similar #60051 set, I still expect it to be gone soon.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 899
    #60051 and #60052 aren't creator type trains though, i.e. EN or HE
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2014
    ^True, but most people will just see them all as trains. From a "playability" standpoint, the High Speed Passenger train #60051 is much better. That said, I'm sure the HE is a better build. With such similarity in design, I would never try to purchase both on a limited budget...even as someone collecting Lego trains. Since I already have the HE, I don't plan to get the High Speed Passenger train unless it is significantly discounted. The reverse would be true if I already had #60051. Hence, the cannibalization...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,388
    Horizon Express is on the "list" to be gone soon. I'm sure they still have stock in certain places, but that doesn't mean it is not on its way out.
  • thedingman5thedingman5 Great Lakes, USAMember Posts: 240

    And #10235 has moved to "Call for Product Availability on S&H. Early sign of EOL, or temporary status?

    Based on the previous sets in the line, likely EOL.
    And, now, "Sold Out".
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,424
    edited December 2014

    ^True, but most people will just see them all as trains. From a "playability" standpoint, the High Speed Passenger train #60051 is much better. That said, I'm sure the HE is a better build. With such similarity in design, I would never try to purchase both on a limited budget...even as someone collecting Lego trains. Since I already have the HE, I don't plan to get the High Speed Passenger train unless it is significantly discounted. The reverse would be true if I already had #60051. Hence, the cannibalization...

    Agreed about the train sets for this theme. They will really need to be put on a generous discount for me to buy one. Mercifully as they are not exclusives they should get down there in price.
    The worrisome thing for me is that so far this holiday season they have not been discounted much. Yoyo did something close (Freight train got down to 157 USD) but then started to pull a TRU and up their RRP throughout the day cancelling out much of the discount.
    At the end of the day though, there is at least one thing I have learned from collecting LEGO: At least buy every Mod, and every train set. Even if I do not want a specific set now. I may change my mind and I would rather not have to overpay for a set long gone. For me it it is easier to sell a set you do not want Vs having to pay dear for it later.

    And #10235 has moved to "Call for Product Availability on S&H. Early sign of EOL, or temporary status?

    Based on the previous sets in the line, likely EOL.
    And, now, "Sold Out".
    Should be interesting to see what the price does now for #10235

  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    What are everyone's thoughts on #70803 Cloud Cuckoo Palace?

    I'm not a reseller but thought about putting a couple of these away as trade fodder a couple years down the road. And if they end up worth less than what I bought them for, I can open them and have a bunch of interesting pieces.
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