Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

TheLoneTensor · November 2014

hoyatables said:
^^You assume I'm talking about picking up to resell. I'm on the fence about simply getting it to own for myself.

But I do pick up some on-the-fence sets when I think there is nevertheless resale value. With this one, I am just not sure it will see huge increases. And it is such a big darn box which makes it hard and expensive to ship. I'm thinking it would sit in my attic like IS until I finally decide to pull the trigger and then realize the return really isn't worth it.

I didn't assume anything other than what you already stated, that you're on the fence regarding buying it. My discussion is completely agnostic as to why you want to buy it, because it works both ways. If you're looking to resell, it'll be worth more. If you're looking to collect, you'll pay less than if you wait.

prevere · November 2014

ThirdBuckEye said:
I bet LOTR and hobbit sets will see a 2-300℅ increase within 3 years. I could see ToO selling for $500 Xmas 2017

Just my opinion

I think the scenario there is that within the next 12 months those that were hoping for big returns and don't see it happening...sell off their stuff or part-out their sets. Then as quantity dwindles to very low levels, the price shoots up very quickly.

Pitfall69 · November 2014

"Lego Legends"...

As many of you know; I have been around Lego all of my life. I got into Lego around the introduction of the Minifigure. Like most people; I went into a "Dark Age". When I came out of my "Dark Age" it was around the time Lego wasn't doing so well. Then Lego got the Star Wars license and things really started turning around for them. I used to look at my old catalogs and wished I could get my hands on some old Lego sets. Lego announced the "Legends" line and I got excited. When I saw Main Street; I was really disappointed and never purchased it because it wasn't what I remembered. I did buy the Black Seas Barracuda, Black Falcons Fortress, The Metroliner and passenger car. Lego also re released some other sets like Fort Legoredo and a couple of pirate ships. I also added those to my collection. What I missed most about the old sets were the classic box design. I also noticed that some parts were different than the originals. My point is that although I was excited about the Legends line and re releases; I probably should have just bought an original sealed copy instead. I was disappointed and I'm sure there were many people like myself.

Pitfall69 · November 2014

I don't see LotR doing as well or better than Harry Potter. Firstly, I don't think it is as popular as Harry Potter. I don't see Universal Studios making a LorR themed area. Also, the movies are much more violent than Harry Potter. I cannot compare the books because I have never read any Harry Potter book, but I am sure they are more enjoyable to read. Harry Potter is just as popular today as it was when the last book and movie came out. Secondly, Harry Potter Lego came out a few years before the "Lego Speculation Boom." Although there were many people in the Aftermarket buying and selling Lego, it hadn't reached its peak. I'm sure more people have more Helms Deeps stored away than Hogwarts Castles. Anything is possible, but I don't see LotR reaching the heights that Harry Potter has achieved.

wagnerml2 · November 2014

Any IP license that continues to produce current films will remain relevant. Currently LotR falls in this category. I agree with @pitfall69, that once the movies cease to continue to be produced, I don't see LotR continuing to pace with HP. HP's staying power and relevance will endure, LotR will be much more marginal in its popularity...IMHO.

Farmer_John · November 2014

I thought the IS did great, and I'm sure the ToO will do really well too.

JRR Tolkien has been gone over 40 years now, so I don't think he'll have any more books coming out anytime soon. On the other had, JK Rowling is alive and kicking, and can write a book if a pen and paper (and huge endorsement deals) are available. With no more LotR or Hobbit movies coming out, the LotR and Hobbit sets will be winners...especially the iconic sets like ToO. In fact, the Imperial Flagship comes to mind when I think about the ToO...a known obvious aftermarket winner when it was released.

CCC · November 2014

Another downside for LOTR is that the official sets are not that great. Also the lack of Gondor soldiers is a problem. Will people want to buy in knowing they will never get them? Same with Sauron, Witch King, ...

I know a number of LOTR non-lego fans that have the fellowship minifigs, but nothing else.

BrickDancer · November 2014

^^IF #10210 is a good example too. It was struggling to hit 2xRRP and break the $400 barrier by the 12 month mark. But since then, has been climbing strong due to lack of volume floating around the market. So now it is in the $550-$600 region, and I expect it to continue climbing towards $700 in short order.

Farmer_John · November 2014

Rowling can write more books and TLG can always swamp the market with HP sets from those books. We've already had two runs of HP; I don't see the same thing happening for LotR or Hobbit. I'm primarily considering the "rarity" factor for the aftermarket. Rarity doesn't always mean something, but an iconic (and more expensive) set like ToO will definitely be an aftermarket winner IMO.

Pitfall69 · November 2014

^There are already people within this forum that are "on the fence" about buying ToO; mainly because of the cost. How many people that are "on the fence" now, will pay 2.5x RRP later? Something to consider.

This is funny. I recently saw a rerun of a "Friends" episode that involved Gandalf. Ross and Chandler were excited their friend "Gandalf" was coming into town and was trying to get Joey to come along when they go out. Joey didn't know who Gandalf was.

Dad · November 2014

BrickDancer said:
^^IF #10210 is a good example too. It was struggling to hit 2xRRP and break the $400 barrier by the 12 month mark. But since then, has been climbing strong due to lack of volume floating around the market. So now it is in the $550-$600 region, and I expect it to continue climbing towards $700 in short order.

Just looked at completed ones of them and it surprised me. I couldn't shift my last 2 of these earlier this year @ BIN £325 but someone stumped up £560 on the pair cash so I let them go. Seems like I sold 6 months too early and funnily enough mine was the only one on ebay at the time BNISB. You win some, you lose some!! Around the same time someone gave me £1400 for 4 x #10195 cash which I bit their hand off for. Look at it as one big deal and I did ok but it's not always easy to look at it like that.

brickupdate · November 2014

I almost bought #10225 on Amazon just before it sold out, and then 1/2 a day later, they were gone. I just bought one on eBay for $200 - I feel like this one will be HUGE on the aftermarket. R2D2 will likely be in the new movies, and this set is pretty unique. I'm buying mine to build though, not "for investment." I'd rather pay $20 over retail now than feel as though I missed out.

juggles7 · November 2014

#10225 R2 is "temporarily out of stock". Remember that Architecture Studio was "temporarily out of stock" for about 6 months, then returned. It's not retired. It's not even "sold out", although if [email protected] applied the "sold out" label, that wouldn't make things any clearer about whether there will be more. Just saying!

pharmjod · November 2014

R2 is one that I keep seeing bandied about by folks that seem to have better than average insight into retirement schedules so I wouldn't be too quick to say it's not gone. I have about all I was planning on buying so I'm not worried either way.

brickupdate · November 2014

@juggles7 Good point. But much like @pharmjod I'm not really trying to time the market perfectly, I'm just reducing any potential regret I may have if it does indeed retire.

Farmer_John · November 2014

There are SO many larger sets having just retired or potentially in the queue to retire. I don't remember the number ever being this large since I've been collecting. Just another unpredictable variable as a collector in trying to determine what's really gone and what isn't. Just as surprising to me is that in the wake of these "potential retirements," the Death Star is still going strong...

pharmjod · November 2014

Also, Architecture Studio was initially a Barnes and Noble exclusive and was only available for what, 2 - 3 months before it disappeared. It returning was assumed (at least by me). Way different than R2D2 which has been available for 2+ years now.

CCC · November 2014

Plus architecture studio was USA only, with the rerelease in Europe too. Plus things changed, the booklet is different.

jasonord69a · November 2014

I picked up a few R2 recently from Argos. Just before TLG changed status to Sold Out (UK). There batch number was 37S4. If I'm not mistaken that means they were made in the first week of October.

Could be that Argos used up all TLG's remaining stock during their recent 3 for 2. Hence why they are not currently available at TLG and Argos.

pcirone · November 2014

Pitfall69 said:
^There are already people within this forum that are "on the fence" about buying ToO; mainly because of the cost. How many people that are "on the fence" now, will pay 2.5x RRP later? Something to consider.

How many people within this forum would even consider paying 2.5x RRP on _any_ set? Ever?? You can't go by what "we" are thinking or doing, the public is a different animal entirely..

tamamahm · November 2014

R2 was a must have set here this year. My son has eyed this for a while, but it went straight to the top of his Christmas list back in May. I bought in August for concern that the writing was on the wall for this set, and I did not want to be caught without one. Even if it was not going to go, I felt the chances of becoming backordered and then a reselling frenzy commence was also too high.

Right now I am considering what large sets are around and are any other must haves for us.

brickupdate · November 2014

@tamamahm Smart. And I think that is the difference between viewing current sets because you want a single one for your collection, vs investing in INVENTORY for reselling.

While there are many sets I really appreciate, looking at the list of current sets, Palace Cinema is on the top of my list. Maybe Death Star as a distant second. There are so many sets I wouldn't mind having, but just don't have the room for.

pharmjod · November 2014

I'm probably going to buy Parisian Restaurant and Sea Cow Black Friday weekend to get the freebie set. I am fairly confident they aren't going anywhere, but again, they are sets I want eventually and am not going to take a chance on. I can't imagine the Sea Cow is a great seller given it's price point and funky design so who knows what LEGO might do.

madforLEGO · November 2014

Pitfall69 said:
^There are already people within this forum that are "on the fence" about buying ToO; mainly because of the cost. How many people that are "on the fence" now, will pay 2.5x RRP later? Something to consider.
......

The difference is I can live without the ToO. I dunno if I would have felt the same way if I missed out on TH or HH, but that is just me

Farmer_John · November 2014

^Personally, I put the ToO on parity with the TH or HH. Maybe it's because I really liked LotR and the ToO is such an iconic part of the show. The HH and TH are nice sets too. For me, they are different flavors...and I like them all. But if I was forced to choose, I would prioritize it as 1) ToO, 2) TH, and 3) HH. But hey...that's just me.

Pitfall69 · November 2014

^Hmmm. I guess the only way to really know is to vote ;)

flyingpig · November 2014

CCC said:
Plus architecture studio was USA only, with the rerelease in Europe too. Plus things changed, the booklet is different.

Note the SKU and booklet are different now. Fixed the printing errors in the booklet for one thing.

jack_bricks · November 2014

Thx pitfall for explaining the “Legend Line” from your point of view, back then.

This is what I bring up every time, if Lego is doing a reissue of a set it needs to be well thought thru 1:1 reissue. A lot of people want interior, new (better) parts,… Though as you pointed it out I think it needs to be exactly as it was, otherwise buyers might be disappointed due to “it is not the set they remember” and with all the technical possibilities side we have now a days I do think it is doable – of course Lego would need to put some brain into it. Same is for the packing design, I think even this matters.

Concerning the price, I don’t know how much you would’ve to pay for a lets say original “Metro Liner” back in 2000, though I think it was nothing compared to today’s price gaps. As some of you mentioned Café Corner was 120-140 USD, now you won’t get a sealed one under 1200 USD. I highly doubt that a sealed (original) Metro Liner had a value of around 700USD back in 2000 prior of the “Legend Line”. As demand has an influence on the price I would conclude that the demand for those sets of 2009-2010 is significantly higher.

vasp · November 2014

Target was the only other place to get ToO. Target price went up by $50 to $249.99.

CCC · November 2014

jack_bricks said:

This is what I bring up every time, if Lego is doing a reissue of a set it needs to be well thought thru 1:1 reissue. A lot of people want interior, new (better) parts,… Though as you pointed it out I think it needs to be exactly as it was, otherwise buyers might be disappointed due to “it is not the set they remember” and with all the technical possibilities side we have now a days I do think it is doable – of course Lego would need to put some brain into it. Same is for the packing design, I think even this matters.

Another problem is that often people want an old set not because they actually want it, but because it is valuable. Re-release it exactly as before, and not only do you not sell so many, but you also damage future sales of (for example) the modulars, since resellers won't purchase them if they know they will be available. Also, people won't buy them at full price early on if they know they can wait and get it _without fail_ at some point, probably with a promo. So lego may not be able to sell quite as many as it would seem, and they damage their future sales.

It may seem that it would be a good thing, kill off resellers and lego will be happy. But of course it means them never retiring a product and having every product available - which is fairly unrealistic. That is the continuous model.

The alternative - retire a product and re-release it five years later - is just as bad. Resellers will still purchase and have an amount of time to sell it before it gets re-released. And this one has the downside that to re-release a model presumably stops a new one being produced. How many people would be happy if they stopped doing the modulars now, and started re-releasing them from the start, one per year, and then cycle it again once they get to the end? It would help new-comers to catch up, but it would also kill off the line for long term fans. It would also lead to a new "reseller 2" thread - predictions when things will get re-released.

juggles7 · November 2014

I agree with everyone's comments about how Architecture Studio was different in many ways from the #10225 R2. My point was just that the term "temporarily out of stock" was/is being applied to both, and, "temp out of stock" leaves the manufacturer all their options open as to whether to make more or not. You can't order or even pre-order an R2 at the moment, and that's all we know. Oh, and it's "sold out" at [email protected] UK, "temp out of stock" at USA and Canada. Since I live in the US, I usually just look at that site, but if anyone reading this has done a lot of looking at other regions, I wish they would weigh in with thoughts about what to expect when a set is "sold out" in one region, but just "temporarily out of stock" in other regions.

rocao · November 2014

jack_bricks said:
Thx pitfall for explaining the “Legend Line” from your point of view, back then.

This is what I bring up every time, if Lego is doing a reissue of a set it needs to be well thought thru 1:1 reissue. A lot of people want interior, new (better) parts,… Though as you pointed it out I think it needs to be exactly as it was, otherwise buyers might be disappointed due to “it is not the set they remember” and with all the technical possibilities side we have now a days I do think it is doable – of course Lego would need to put some brain into it. Same is for the packing design, I think even this matters.

@jack_bricks Have you read this thread? http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/3836/petition-to-reissue-cafe-corner/p1

Pretty much any reason to reissue a set is raised and subsequently put to rest there.
Most importantly, I would read LEGO designer Jamie Berard's comment here: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/57672/#Comment_57672

prevere · November 2014

^That's why I stopped listing sets right at retirement at a "high" price point. I'd get the "why am I charging so much?" question.

tamamahm said:
R2 was a must have set here this year. My son has eyed this for a while, but it went straight to the top of his Christmas list back in May. I bought in August for concern that the writing was on the wall for this set, and I did not want to be caught without one. Even if it was not going to go, I felt the chances of becoming backordered and then a reselling frenzy commence was also too high.

Right now I am considering what large sets are around and are any other must haves for us.

I like R2 for double its current RRP or better. A) Iconic Star Wars character, B) This set will never be done again (and maybe the last "profile/bust" for Star Wars to be done UCS style).

SuperTramp · November 2014

ToO keeps changing, i ordered 2 on tuesday. had a email to say it had been backordered. then yesterday it was available and now its been put back till the 3rd December.

Also noticed on my order it says "In warehouse", never noticed this status before?

littlepuppi · November 2014

Are people thinking ToO is done? I will grab one if thats the case as I love it!

Farmer_John · November 2014

^With the way things have been going on sets being EOL'd, I would (and did) grab one.

Bumblepants · November 2014

^Me too. I would have been super sad if I had missed out on that one.

Billybrown · November 2014

There have been many cracking sets that have EOL'd this year but ToO won't be one of them.

nkx1 · November 2014

I was looking at prices for #10221 SSD on ebay, and the cheapest new/sealed buy-it-now example is currently about $680 including shipping. Pretty impressive at first glance. Doing some quick math [$680 (BIN price) - $88 (ebay and paypal fees) - $40 (shipping) - $432 ($400 purchase price + 8% tax)], that only leaves about $120 for profit.

I know there are numerous circumstances under which people obtained these for much cheaper than $432, but I was still a tad bit surprised at the comparatively meager profit that some people might be making from these despite the quick price appreciation.

joel4motion · November 2014

nkx1 said:
I was looking at prices for #10221 SSD on ebay, and the cheapest new/sealed buy-it-now example is currently about $680 including shipping. Pretty impressive at first glance. Doing some quick math [$680 (BIN price) - $88 (ebay and paypal fees) - $40 (shipping) - $432 ($400 purchase price + 8% tax)], that only leaves about $120 for profit.

I know there are numerous circumstances under which people obtained these for much cheaper than $432, but I was still a tad bit surprised at the comparatively meager profit that some people might be making from these despite the quick price appreciation.

Did it not just retire? Put $430 in a bank, I doubt you'll see $550 in a couple of months...

nkx1 · November 2014

^You're obviously correct on both counts. I'm not asserting you could have made more money elsewhere. I was just expressing that I was a bit surprised that the profit (in some instances) is relatively small even with a good appreciation over original retail price.

joel4motion · November 2014

nkx1 said:
^You're obviously correct on both counts. I'm not asserting you could have made more money elsewhere. I was just expressing that I was a bit surprised that the profit (in some instances) is relatively small even with a good appreciation over original retail price.

I did re-read over what you say before you posted and appreciate your main point. Whilst ebay remain unchallenged though, they'll continue to raise fees and shipping costs have risen sharply in the last 18 months. $250 over RRP gives $120 profit but when it hits $1000, the profit should be approx $400ish, much more appealing to those who can wait.

JamesJT · November 2014

This was posted on brickpicker mid september...

"So I just received an email from a local guy who has a Lego seller license where he asked if we wanted some sets that won't be available after December and I have to say that I was surprised to see a particular set among the ones he listed, others we already had hints about them EOL-ing. Anyways, here are the ones he listed:

10221 SSD
10220 T1 Camper
10211 Grand Emporium
10225 R2-D2
10233 Horizon Express
10224 Town Hall

Obviously, I was surprised about the Town Hall, if that one goes before the Pet Shop that'll be a big surprise."

Pretty accurate so far!

madforLEGO · November 2014

joel4motion said:

nkx1 said:
I was looking at prices for #10221 SSD on ebay, and the cheapest new/sealed buy-it-now example is currently about $680 including shipping. Pretty impressive at first glance. Doing some quick math [$680 (BIN price) - $88 (ebay and paypal fees) - $40 (shipping) - $432 ($400 purchase price + 8% tax)], that only leaves about $120 for profit.

I know there are numerous circumstances under which people obtained these for much cheaper than $432, but I was still a tad bit surprised at the comparatively meager profit that some people might be making from these despite the quick price appreciation.
Did it not just retire? Put $430 in a bank, I doubt you'll see $550 in a couple of months...

Then again in a bank if there is a fire, or damage to your money it is replaced by FDIC. You have some monster boxes in your home you have to worry about space and possible damage. Does you insurance cover it? Likely not. If so, will Insurance cover the raising value? Many will not, or make you jump through hoops to prove it (for obvious reasons) then how many do you decide to get? One, two, ten? Did you buy with cash or a credit card? What is the interest rate on that card if you do not pay it off?

It is all relative. Yes you can make a quick buck BUT you are also dealing with people that may try to scam you, you have to compete against others that may have a lower price because they have more of them to sell and they can afford the lower sell price. Also need to worry about it getting to its destination in one piece. If it does have an issue then you have to deal with getting insurance claims for a 680 dollar item (guessing shipping co may not just be so quick to pay out on those pricey items), and negative feedback driving others away from buying from you (or causing you to get booted), then the fees from eBay BL Paypal,Etc etc. There is BL but you are likely going to sit on them for longer whereas eBay is used by everyone, regardless how people feel about it.
Then you also have to consider if that set will be sought after or if interest will wain (or worse yet, set is redone by LEGO)
About 15-20% goes to eBay /paypal I believe. If you do free shipping you have to account for that (shipping on an SSD is pricey Im guessing) and you probably would want to insure. Pass that onto the buyer and they may not want to buy then, so you sit on it longer.
So a 'killing' or buying a set for 432 (assuming tax and shipping was included) and making 680, after fees it is more like 544 so about 112 dollars, maybe up to about 150, liekly profit? Still not bad, but look at everything you have as a potential pitfall or problem that requires attention. Heck ask yourself how much time you want to devote to it?

I'm not saying it is not worthwhile to many to do this, but I think that sometimes people just think buy the set and then in 6 months poof it magically disappears and you have a crisp new wad of 100's.

prevere · November 2014

I have some crisp new 100s. (Just parted out some Doc Ock Truck Heists).

madforLEGO · November 2014

ohh @prevere if it were really that easy :-)
I have a funny feeling the local bank may not appreciate that kind of humor

ThirdBuckEye · November 2014

JamesJT said:
This was posted on brickpicker mid september...

"So I just received an email from a local guy who has a Lego seller license where he asked if we wanted some sets that won't be available after December and I have to say that I was surprised to see a particular set among the ones he listed, others we already had hints about them EOL-ing. Anyways, here are the ones he listed:

10221 SSD
10220 T1 Camper
10211 Grand Emporium
10225 R2-D2
10233 Horizon Express
10224 Town Hall

Obviously, I was surprised about the Town Hall, if that one goes before the Pet Shop that'll be a big surprise."

Pretty accurate so far!

So your saying go get some 10233?
Sounds like a plan I just wish it came with power functions! I have one already but would like a second to connect to the rear with an engine with motor on both sides. Thanks for the heads up hopefully they are available BF!

Farmer_John · November 2014

Billybrown said:
There have been many cracking sets that have EOL'd this year but ToO won't be one of them.

Yeah, I would have said the same thing about the TH a little over a month ago too...

nkx1 · November 2014

madforLEGO said:
ohh @prevere if it were really that easy :-)

Actually, it really is that easy. The only caveat is that you must be a central bank, or to a lesser extent, any private bank. :)

CoraHarrison · November 2014

Going to Lego B&M store today...

Really hoping to find a TH or HH lurking on a shelf... Any recommendations as to what to buy based on what maybe going out this year...

Im surprised PS is still here, but then again if it goes thats 3 modulars gone this year and only 1 to replace it.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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