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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813
    Legoboy said:

    ^^^ Just one? ;o)

    Now now!!......You KNOW I appreciated that. I am wise enough to know who to listen to around this neck of the woods my friend and it certainly isn't the ones who do all the shouting..

    Legoboy
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Definitely looking forward to the Detective Agency. However, I think what will rekindle "modular momentum" is a re-do on Green Grocer or Cafe Corner.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    stevemack said:

    stevemack said:

    I think r2d2 will go in may :)

    Brave shout ;- I'll predict that its the next big set to be 'sold out' @ S&H :-) (UK that is)
    Don't worry I've got plenty stashed away anyway from Argos 3 4 2s :)
    I thought you might :-). Looks like they are going to be very limited or even non existent for the next 3 for 2.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Prevere - do you really think they would re-do one of the early modulars. I haven't been around long enough to have a perspective on this. From what I can gather, it seems more likely that Lego would release an updated design, before doing a copy of a retired set.

    Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original? If so, how ofter have they don this?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,128
    I don't see LEGO re-releasing any modular. Makes no sense, there's plenty of "new" modulars to make. Even if they re-hash an old one, it would be significantly different enough to not impact the aftermarket value of the original
    madforLEGOPitfall69
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    enotoga said:

    Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original?

    Lego Legends
    madforLEGO
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    enotoga said:


    Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original? If so, how ofter have they don this?

    It is rare but it does happen, this January for the race truck.
    #8041 = #42041
    #8459 = #8464 = #8439
    #8431 = #8460 = #8438

  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    Legends set Original set

    #10000 Guarded Inn (2001) #6067 Guarded Inn (1986)
    #10001 Metroliner (2001) #4558 Metroliner (1992)
    #10002 Railroad Club Car (2001) #4547 Railroad Club Car (1993)
    #10021 U.S.S. Constellation (2003) #398 U.S.S. Constellation (1978)
    #10036 Pizza To Go (2002) #6350 Pizza To Go (1994)
    #10037 Breezeway Cafe (2002) #6376 Breezeway Café (1990)
    #10039 Black Falcon's Fortress (2002) #6074 Black Falcon's Fortress (1986)
    #10040 Black Seas Barracuda (2002) #6285 Black Seas Barracuda (1989)
    #10041 Main Street (2003) #6390 Main Street (1980)
    #10151 Hot Rod (2004) #5541 Blue Fury (1995)
    madforLEGO
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited November 2014
    That is very interesting. I was unaware of those re-releases. I noticed they were all from 2001-2004. Do you think that could be due to Lego having limited design work available during those years. It's been 10 years since the last one, so I wonder why.

    BTW - that Metroliner was released at least 2 more times as the passenger train - same design.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    dougts said:

    I don't see LEGO re-releasing any modular. Makes no sense, there's plenty of "new" modulars to make. Even if they re-hash an old one, it would be significantly different enough to not impact the aftermarket value of the original

    I could see a modular hospital, a modular cathedral (although they'll never do it), and at the rate the economy is going...a modular slum might be in order too.
    cloaked7
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Hospital, Bank, Jail, Bar, Parking Garage, Taxi Stand, Police Station. I guess if they can do a detective agency, they can do any business
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,240
    enotoga said:

    BTW - that Metroliner was released at least 2 more times as the passenger train - same design.

    With different set numbers? example?

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited November 2014
    The same electric train we keep seeing for the last 15 years. The red one was 7938, I think. They just re-released again in white, this year.
  • david325david325 Member Posts: 138

    stevemack said:

    stevemack said:

    I think r2d2 will go in may :)

    Brave shout ;- I'll predict that its the next big set to be 'sold out' @ S&H :-) (UK that is)
    Don't worry I've got plenty stashed away anyway from Argos 3 4 2s :)
    I thought you might :-). Looks like they are going to be very limited or even non existent for the next 3 for 2.

    Next Argos 3 for 2 starts Wednesday...
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited November 2014
    enotoga said:

    ...Lego has no interest in the secondary market. They have far better things to do than search Ebay, get jealous, and plan a sneak attack. Lego LOVES juggletards - the more the merrier...

    Lego could very well have an interest in the secondary market. Many people, presumably including many Lego customers, are of limited means. If a person buys a retired set from a reseller, that could potentially result in that person buying less current product from Lego (directly or indirectly). From Lego's perspective, that may be interpreted as a lost revenue.

    Of course, one might also argue that there is little appreciable difference between a reseller that purchased a set from Lego two years ago, versus an end-user purchasing a current/equivalent set from Lego. The revenue to Lego might be similar either way, excluding time value of money. After all, the reseller would not have purchased the set if the aftermarket didn't exist.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,240
    enotoga said:

    The same electric train we keep seeing for the last 15 years. The red one was 7938, I think. They just re-released again in white, this year.

    There are other passenger trains but none that are the same design as the metroliner.
    Pitfall69MathBuilder
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    pcirone said:

    enotoga said:

    Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original?

    Lego Legends
    And we all know how well that worked out for them.

    Pitfall69
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    dougts said:

    I don't see LEGO re-releasing any modular. Makes no sense, there's plenty of "new" modulars to make. Even if they re-hash an old one, it would be significantly different enough to not impact the aftermarket value of the original

    I could see a modular hospital, a modular cathedral (although they'll never do it), and at the rate the economy is going...a modular slum might be in order too.
    I really want to see a modular liquor store or modular marijuana dispensary.

    Dougout
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Maybe a special set that can be offered at store openings in Colorado or California.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    ...and at the rate the economy is going...a modular slum might be in order too.

    And, the slum set could come out with some new minifigs, the slumlord and the juggletard. The juggletards would hang out in the slum after losing all of their money on bad LEGO investments. And, there could be one holding a sign "Will work for LEGOS". :-) Then, you could build the Detective Agency across the street for investigating all the crimes in the slum.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Ouch...

    But to that point, the set could come also with a 7-11 and a bunch of minifigs for the flash mob. Might as well keep it real...
    Pitfall69
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    edited November 2014
    enotoga said:

    Prevere - do you really think they would re-do one of the early modulars. I haven't been around long enough to have a perspective on this. From what I can gather, it seems more likely that Lego would release an updated design, before doing a copy of a retired set.

    Has Lego every re-released a retired set exactly like the original? If so, how ofter have they don this?

    I do see a update version to CC or GG in the next 5 years. It makes sense to allow new AFOLs the ability to add those to their cities. The first 3 modulars are just outside of the regular joe's budget to afford. (And FB will soon be there too.)
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 648
    enotoga said:

    Hospital, Bank, Jail, Bar, Parking Garage, Taxi Stand, Police Station. I guess if they can do a detective agency, they can do any business

    Not sure if most of those measure up to the appeal of the previous modulars, though I agree in that I can't think of much else they could do. Most every modular so far released were places one would go for pleasure (shopping mall, movie theater, restaurant, etc.), so those are exciting and would appeal to both young and adult audiences. I can't really see trying to sell, for instance, an office building set to kids I guess a Hospital and Police Station/Jail have potential.

    I would like to see some modular houses or apartment buildings. Almost every set released so far has to be a business, with an apartment upstairs, but real cities have homes too for people to live in. I think an apartment building or a hotel would be nice.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,328
    There are differences between remaking an original brick for brick and doing another design that is similar.
    The Legends line did not sell well, at least as well as LEGO was hoping for.
    Pretty sure I recall Metroliners being clearance'd for 50% off at some point and even then they lingered (days before all the speculators), same with main streets too I think.

    This has been debated endlessly in this and other threads I believe, but people forget that LEGO constantly evolves, so when Main street and Metroliner and even Black Seas Barracuda were re-released they looked outdated. Not to mention they still were not exactly duplicated (Some hair changes, some pieces no longer manufactured).

    Cafe Corner, while expensive now , was retailing for 120 because people were not hugely interested in it back then, never mind look at the parts utilized for it. I wonder if LEGO even makes some of those parts needed anymore.
    Plus many claim the design is really poor now, and the building was also empty, like Market Street.
    Will we see a set 'like' Cafe Corner? Likely, but I doubt you will see Cafe Corner re-released by LEGO again.
    Pitfall69dougts
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Jamie Berard has already shut down any speculation on rehashing a Modular for variety of reasons, right here on a Brickset thread even. Doesn't anyone remember this?
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69BumblepantsJP3804madforLEGOLegoFanTexasdougts
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^I remember
    Pitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^^Yeah...I would be surprised if they did a rehash. The modulars aren't Star Wars, so TLG has the creative license to release anything they want. I would still like to see a cathedral (or the like) just to mix it up.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    edited November 2014

    Jamie Berard has already shut down any speculation on rehashing a Modular for variety of reasons, right here on a Brickset thread even. Doesn't anyone remember this?

    Yeah sure. But he isn't in charge of the company. Anything is possible if Lego sees an opportunity.


    Plus many claim the design is really poor now, and the building was also empty, like Market Street.
    Will we see a set 'like' Cafe Corner? Likely, but I doubt you will see Cafe Corner re-released by LEGO again.

    Who claims the design is "really poor"? I personally think it holds up quite well. It has that classic Lego charm about it. Modern designs like Town Hall for example are rather mundane. Even the Palace Cinema which I quite like lacks the same character of the early modulars. Of course I like Market Street so I'm not your typical Bricksetter.
    TXLegoguy
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    It will never happen:
    * Pieces would have to be reintroduced, at least 4 of them.
    * It would take a spot in the already packed production schedule.
    * The repeat modular would start off with a smaller potential audience as many fans already have the original set.
    * Design as evolved (so has the piece selection) and the original sets lack something that is seen in the newer modulars (minus TH)
    * ...

    NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN.
    Pitfall69pharmjodmadforLEGOdougts
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    * Design as evolved (so has the piece selection) and the original sets lack something that is seen in the newer modulars (minus TH)
    * ...

    NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN.

    I agree that a rehash isn't going to happen, but am curious about your TH comment. Can you elaborate?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited November 2014

    It will never happen:
    * Pieces would have to be reintroduced, at least 4 of them.
    * It would take a spot in the already packed production schedule.
    * The repeat modular would start off with a smaller potential audience as many fans already have the original set.
    * Design as evolved (so has the piece selection) and the original sets lack something that is seen in the newer modulars (minus TH)
    * ...

    NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN.

    Most of the "Legends" didn't sell that well from what I remember. I didn't buy the re release of Main Street because it wasn't really the same as the original. Many of the Legends sets used different parts because the molds for those parts were no longer available.

    Releasing rehashes of Cafe Corner and Green Grocer will not happen. Anything is possible, but I think Lego has learned from their earlier mistakes and I don't see it ever happening.

    madforLEGO
  • edgarallanpoe14edgarallanpoe14 Member Posts: 18
    As someone who missed a lot of great sets during their dark ages, I live in hope of stuff being rehashed, but I doubt *any* large, collectible set is ever going to get a brick-for-brick reissue. It would be tempting though, surely, from the perspective of a Lego exec. The Cafe Corner's lack of an interior dates it considerably, so I wouldn't be inclined to reissue that, but the design and modelling work on the modular sets fully graduated with the Green Grocer, which could be released today and not look at all out of place. And you could re-release it in a limited run of, say, 30,000 at double the original RRP and it'd sell out in days.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,706
    margot said:

    CCC said:

    I also don't see that there is any difference if they are bought for personal profit or charity. Breaking limits for charity is just as bad as breaking limits for reselling. Circumventing limits to pass on sets to BL members at cost is also just as bad as circumventing limits for personal profit.

    How so?

    Because breaking limits is breaking limits, no matter what the intention.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813
    ^ Period.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I believe the limits issues were completely hashed out in the "Circumventing Limits" war of 2014.

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/7043/the-community-perspective-on-reselling#latest
    Pitfall69BrickDancerRainstorm26dougts
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949

    ...
    I agree that a rehash isn't going to happen, but am curious about your TH comment. Can you elaborate?

    All I was trying to say is that I feel the town hall was a step back in the progression of the modular line. But Jamie can't design every set for Lego now can he? It would be interesting to see Lego rerelease a modified TH as Emits apartment EA:) Na, it wouldn't.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,777

    ...
    I agree that a rehash isn't going to happen, but am curious about your TH comment. Can you elaborate?

    All I was trying to say is that I feel the town hall was a step back in the progression of the modular line. But Jamie can't design every set for Lego now can he? It would be interesting to see Lego rerelease a modified TH as Emits apartment EA:) Na, it wouldn't.
    I can see where the TH criticism comes from but after building it myself recently I am extremely glad I bought one. It looks really impressive alongside the others and while I am not the biggest fan of the elevator I appreciate that it isn't another staircase. It also has a lot more depth when compared to the other modulars. It doesn't really come across in photos but the interior is much bigger as well as being taller.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    All I was trying to say is that I feel the town hall was a step back in the progression of the modular line. But Jamie can't design every set for Lego now can he? It would be interesting to see Lego rerelease a modified TH as Emits apartment EA:) Na, it wouldn't.

    I haven't built mine yet and was just curious. I plan to build the TH this Christmas (along with about 50 other sets that I haven't built yet).
    FollowsClosely
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Two things:

    1.) Yes, TH was harshly criticized, a bit unfairly IMO.
    2.) No one needs to leave the forum. This is a safe place!!
    Bumblepants
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,141
    So trying to get back on topic :) Do you see a point in holding onto #10227 UCS B-Wing or just call it a day and sell now? I purchased a few when they were 50% off and it seems that a year later after retirement it is finally selling at around retail. At such a slow rate of increase, does it make sense to wait?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    If you're willing to wait 2 years or so for it to gain $50-$100 from today's prices, I think that's what you're looking at.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^The release of the new B-Wing #75050 didn't help much. If you are going to sell it, Christmas season would be the best time IMO.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,141
    Thanks, I think that is what I will do. Seems like this set is following in Obi Wan's Jedi Starfighter's footsteps.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,700
    #10215 seemed small and insignificant, much like the #10026 and I wonder if its size contributed towards it downfall. #10227 on the other hand is a decently sized ship and I think might do better afterall. Look what finally happened to #10026. I'd leave it another year if they were mine.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Renny said:

    So trying to get back on topic :) Do you see a point in holding onto #10227 UCS B-Wing or just call it a day and sell now? I purchased a few when they were 50% off and it seems that a year later after retirement it is finally selling at around retail. At such a slow rate of increase, does it make sense to wait?

    My plan is to sell mine this Christmas.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    How many Tower Bridge copies are you holding? I bought 6 copies over the past 18 months. I'd probably buy a few more, but they're heavy and take up a lot of space
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    enotoga said:

    How many Tower Bridge copies are you holding? I bought 6 copies over the past 18 months. I'd probably buy a few more, but they're heavy and take up a lot of space

    I'm up to 51 now, so nobody else should buy these now as there will be a huge glut of them on the secondary market ;-)

  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 889

    enotoga said:

    How many Tower Bridge copies are you holding? I bought 6 copies over the past 18 months. I'd probably buy a few more, but they're heavy and take up a lot of space

    I'm up to 51 now, so nobody else should buy these now as there will be a huge glut of them on the secondary market ;-)

    Very true... I'm around 30! Massively overstocked by a lot of people I think hoping it would have gone last year, should see returns but nothing like the Taj everyone hopes for :(
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited November 2014

    enotoga said:

    How many Tower Bridge copies are you holding? I bought 6 copies over the past 18 months. I'd probably buy a few more, but they're heavy and take up a lot of space

    I'm up to 51 now, so nobody else should buy these now as there will be a huge glut of them on the secondary market ;-)

    Even with a big stash like 30-50 sets, is it safe to say that you'd never offer more than 1 set for a sale at a given point in time? I've been watching both Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium and the numbers look like this.

    With search terms: Fire Brigade Lego New - the total number of sets available is about 81. This is down from 105 a year ago.

    Grand Emporium is at about 107. I would imagine that in a year it might be down to about 80 as well.

    The number of sets a given person has effects the length of time it takes that set to achieve desired pricing, but the total number of sets available at a given point in time is a more powerful impact on price.

    The length of time TB has been available makes it natural that it will take longer to burn through early secondary inventory, but I think it definitely catches up with Taj and Eiffel over time. It's expensive and somewhat difficult to pull the trigger on - even more so than Town Hall was.
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