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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Gavin83 said:

    TH will be back, I don't doubt it at all. That's personally why I'm not very excited about it.

    Depends how your comment is interpretated. I wouldn't be surprised if a small number come up for sale from the odd left over inventory or return, however I would bet my entire lego stock that its about to be officially retiring as in no more plans for production and all stocks from primary sources will be fully depleted by mid December.
  • jaisonlinejaisonline Member Posts: 1
    edited October 2014
    .
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813

    One of the most exciting (to me anyway) periods of the year as an AFOL used to be the month from Black Friday to the after-Christmas sale. On Black Friday, TLG used to have 10% off PLUS free shipping PLUS a few good sales. The after-Christmas sale had some great deals PLUS those deals usually meant the EOL of the same sets. We all liked to speculate on which set was next, but the picture became pretty clear at 12am Eastern time on December 26th. Frankly those were exciting times and this gargantuan thread was originated in that environment.

    I believe the discussions and temperament on this thread have evolved over time primarily due to the changes made by TLG to their business philosophy. TLG used to be more predictable about when a set was going to be EOL'd, allowing most to pick up a copy or two of what they wanted before it was gone. I even remember people actually congratulating each other on getting good deals. But now there seems to be fewer and fewer good deals to be found, so jealously seems to have picked up a notch or two. Add to that the massive increase in resellers competing for the same piece of pie and there’s now a backstory of the "haves and the have nots."

    I do enjoy the spirited discussions on this thread, but at the end of the day it’s important to remember that we are only talking about plastic toys…not food, clothing and shelter.

    I should hope you do enjoy the spirited discussions. You're to blame, you bloody started all this 435 pages ago!!!!

    sidersddFarmer_JohntamamahmLegoKipprevereGothamConstructionCo
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    I like the third post.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,334

    .

    I was thinking the same thing.

    piratemania7LegoFanTexas
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    .

    .

    That's a good point .
    Pitfall69Bumblepantspharmjodnkx1LegoFanTexasDadGothamConstructionCo
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited October 2014

    TLG used to be more predictable about when a set was going to be EOL'd, allowing most to pick up a copy or two of what they wanted before it was gone.

    With very few exceptions, Lego does a pretty good job of letting people pick up a copy or two of every single set before it is gone. The only funny part is that for some strange reason, it's only the concept of EOL that finally kicks people into gear. It's really hard to feel compassion about say...someone not being able to pick up a Haunted House right now.

    Pitfall69goshe7juggles7cardgeniusAngel_CFarmer_Johndougts
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    As an example of a set that could EOL at the drop of a hat, right now, you can get the Winter Village Market for $100, with the free set (unload for $20, or keep - it's cute), plus 2x VIP points (roughly $10). Using some dirty math, you basically can get it for $70. You. will. not. get. a better deal than that. So, if you want it, get it right now, period.
    Farmer_JohndougtsmadforLEGO
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    ^ Behold! A triumphant return to the EOL predictions!

    There is a chance to get a better deal after Xmas. I think a 30% markdown is typical for the Winter Village Series. If you aren't interested in the free set, cash-in-hand is always better. But LEGO has done much better on their inventory management and I haven't scored the post-Xmas discount since the Bakery. So as you say the best deal is now. It may possibly be matched during BF weekend with rumored 2x VIP.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    edited October 2014

    There is so, so, SO little chance that you will end up with a better deal, that it's basically zero. Instead, you're more likely to have it EOL out from under you during the wait, and then whoops, gone, cry, rant.

    It's almost like this pattern has happened before. Like, imagine it's September, and with fall officially here, it's looking like a great time to pick up the only real Lego Halloween set left. It'll be available during the season for sure, and oh yeah, I'll get 2x VIP points during October too, ooo, I'll get that freebie set also, so I'll hang loose until then. What could possibly go wrong?

    Somewhere, #40090 is crying because he isn't counted as a real Halloween set. But I agree with your assessment; you can hope to get a better deal post-Xmas, but I would most definitely not count on it.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    Some good news: Ebay just relented a little with their mandatory holiday extended returns. Instead of the "stick" method where Top Rated sellers MUST provide extended returns, they've now gone with the "carrot" of a 5% discount on final value fees.

    Interesting. I had not heard that yet. I was on the fence about signing up for the extended holiday returns, and had not done so. Wondering if a lot of sellers were like me? For one, I didn't like it being pretty much dictated to me by a 'either comply or lose your discount'. For two, I simply didn't want to offer extended returns. What a hassle that would be.

  • drlmiles1drlmiles1 UKMember Posts: 176
    Just to say that I've only recently started buying much Lego, and that the comments here have enabled me to buy GE, HH, & TH successfully over the last two months in the UK, before they became Sold Out (and possibly EOL). I also got PS, although that set's status is a bit more unclear. So thanks to everyone for the helpful comments.
    pharmjodPitfall69LegoKip
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,868
    edited October 2014
    ^That's what this thread is ultimately about for me... helping people make a decision to hopefully not miss out on a set they want.
    Farmer_JohnTXLegoguyLegoKip
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited October 2014
    goshe7 said:

    ...LEGO has done much better on their inventory management...

    It's almost as if Lego has done a 180 degree change with regard to sales forecasting/ inventory management. Instead of making enough product and having a little left over to discount (like they used to), they now seem to make too few sets and cannot meet demand (modulars, Tumbler, Tower of Orthanc, Imperial Star Destroyer, etc). It's hard to imagine that their current forecasting/ inventory management model is better than the old one.

    Of course, it could just be that Lego is simply more popular now than a few years ago and Lego is doing the best they can...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    nkx1 said:

    It's almost as if Lego has done a 180 degree change with regard to sales forecasting/ inventory management. Instead of making enough product and having a little left over to discount (like they used to), they now seem to make too few sets and cannot meet demand (modulars, Tumbler, Tower of Orthanc, Imperial Star Destroyer, etc). It's hard to imagine that their current forecasting/ inventory management model is better than the old one.

    Of course, it could just be that Lego is simply more popular now than a few years ago and Lego is doing the best they can...

    My understanding is that the various factories have been running at 100% capacity all year and they still can't make enough. What it comes down to is not trying to have everything in stock, but rather to decide what "must" be in stock and what can be allowed to not be in stock.

    Last year it was just as bad, if not worse. So far this year stock levels actually seem to be better on the mainstream sets. Last year, they couldn't keep the Police Station or Fire Station in stock, the pair of trains were out of stock most of the time, etc.

    A lot of midsized sets were always in stock, but the $20 sets came in and out a bunch.
    madforLEGOtamamahm
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401

    I like the third post.

    That was so long ago, I think I might have been a teenager...and now I have kids in college. ;-)
    bp10030margot
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401

    My understanding is that the various factories have been running at 100% capacity all year and they still can't make enough. What it comes down to is not trying to have everything in stock, but rather to decide what "must" be in stock and what can be allowed to not be in stock.

    I'm wondering if this isn't the fault of all those darn resellers buying up everything to sell for a profit! ;-)

    (ducking under my desk)
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    drlmiles1 said:

    Just to say that I've only recently started buying much Lego, and that the comments here have enabled me to buy GE, HH, & TH successfully over the last two months in the UK, before they became Sold Out (and possibly EOL). I also got PS, although that set's status is a bit more unclear. So thanks to everyone for the helpful comments.

    Great start .

  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,088

    Using some dirty math

    This made me giggle more than it should have.

    As someone who has missed out in the Haunted House i completely accept it was my own fault, i kept looking at it but couldnt justify the price in my head, had it been a ailable with double points and the freebie this month I'd have got it them, but it was gone, so I got the Winter Village Market. Though disappointed I dont blame anyone but myself, its the obvious time for it to sell out and has been around for ages.
    TheLoneTensorAngel_C
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342

    drlmiles1 said:

    Just to say that I've only recently started buying much Lego, and that the comments here have enabled me to buy GE, HH, & TH successfully over the last two months in the UK, before they became Sold Out (and possibly EOL). I also got PS, although that set's status is a bit more unclear. So thanks to everyone for the helpful comments.

    Great start .

    #10226 would would look great flying over them ;)

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,393
    edited October 2014

    I think people fail to ask themselves: "Do people really need to know I have 20 Research institutes or 40 Fire Brigades or whatever other set I have bought a gajillion of? If so, why?"

    But at the end of the day people choose what they post in this forum. If you go out of your way to say 'I bought 30 of them because I will be selling them later', then maybe you should rethink that. Is that REALLY needed info to the community?

    Actually that can be useful information to others. Knowing roughly what proportions resellers and especially experienced resellers are going in for certain sets does tell you about future availability after EOL, and also sets that are likely to be left sitting at clearance. I have before decided not to purchase a set at 33% off, simply because it seemed nobody was that interested in it. And I was later able to buy it at about 55% off. So knowledge of what resellers were buying into, and the rough numbers they are purchasing does help inform you of what to buy now, especially if it is a this or that but not both at the moment type decision.

    This thread is the allowed place to discuss it. If you find it distasteful, then don't read the thread.

    I don't have a problem where resellers (or collectors) get bashed for openly circumventing limits. But just buying large numbers of sets at regular retail outlets, at retail or sale prices is perfectly legitimate. I also don't see that there is any difference if they are bought for personal profit or charity. Breaking limits for charity is just as bad as breaking limits for reselling. Circumventing limits to pass on sets to BL members at cost is also just as bad as circumventing limits for personal profit. Buying everything left on a shelf for resale is just as acceptable as buying everything left for charity.
    DadBumblepantsgmpiratenkx1LegoFanTexasdougtsAngel_Cjasor
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,393
    edited October 2014

    TLG used to be more predictable about when a set was going to be EOL'd, allowing most to pick up a copy or two of what they wanted before it was gone.

    With very few exceptions, Lego does a pretty good job of letting people pick up a copy or two of every single set before it is gone. The only funny part is that for some strange reason, it's only the concept of EOL that finally kicks people into gear. It's really hard to feel compassion about say...someone not being able to pick up a Haunted House right now.

    It is easy to pick up a copy or two of every set before it is gone. Even for Exosuit, RI, Crawler, that is easy.

    What seems to be more important these days is picking up a copy or two (or more) at the best price.

    Paying full retail for future resale requires a really good knowledge of what will sell well to make any profit. Paying full retail minus a discount and freebies requires a little less knowledge. Paying 25% of retail requires virtually no knowledge at all.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,936
    Lego has also been closing as many deal loopholes as it can in the last year or two.
    The 10% coupons are gone. Exclusive discounts are gone. Black Friday Scratcher cards are gone. Barnes and Noble coupons are gone. Grab bags are gone. Crazy awesome Bricktobers are gone. After Christmas sales at the Lego Store are gone. Awesome Walmart clearances are generally gone. The days of 50% of deals are hard to come by. These days, I suspect 30% on mid to large older sets is about the best I can find. (Although I did pick up two Chima sets over the summer at 50%, since I can use those as presents.)

    There has just been a large change in discounts available, and more new people in reselling that often just do not know about reselling. While there are discounts available, it is just not like it was 1-3 years back.

    Now, last year there were some crazy online deals for the $100 and under sets, but who knows if that will happen again.

    The reality is that all the above changes has slowed certain discussion on this forum, and it has also slowed what I buy.
    Angel_C
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Just been invited to the shopping event... eeee... UK based so UK people invites are going out now :)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited October 2014
    CCC said:

    TLG used to be more predictable about when a set was going to be EOL'd, allowing most to pick up a copy or two of what they wanted before it was gone.

    With very few exceptions, Lego does a pretty good job of letting people pick up a copy or two of every single set before it is gone. The only funny part is that for some strange reason, it's only the concept of EOL that finally kicks people into gear. It's really hard to feel compassion about say...someone not being able to pick up a Haunted House right now.

    It is easy to pick up a copy or two of every set before it is gone. Even for Exosuit, RI, Crawler, that is easy.

    What seems to be more important these days is picking up a copy or two (or more) at the best price.

    Paying full retail for future resale requires a really good knowledge of what will sell well to make any profit. Paying full retail minus a discount and freebies requires a little less knowledge. Paying 25% of retail requires virtually no knowledge at all.
    My post really had nothing to do with reselling, it was more a guideline to getting a copy or two of a set you want. Reselling has a whole lot more involved in the decision making process, as you allude.

    But, as for the getting the best price you mention, that works for both resellers and personal collectors. Waiting for the "best price" is usually what burns people, the HH now being a textbook example that will be quoted forever. Bottom line is that if you can get 25%+ off an exclusive, you will be happy post EOL, regardless of your motivations for buying. Sure you might get a few more quid off if you're lucky, but that involves more risk, which people usually hate dealing with.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,393
    ^ Yes, I agree. What is amazing is how many people will wait to buy a £12 set for £8 (me included) for their personal collection. In fact, if it is available at £8 quite soon after release, I'll probably wait for £6 before I'll buy it.

    Knowing /guessing what sets are going to be discounted seems to be part of the fun of the game these days - both collecting and reselling. Because most of the cheaper ones will not increase much above RRP, they are almost pointless from an investment perspective unless you get them at 50%. Even then it is normally better to strip out the minifigs to sell, and keep the bricks.

    For the exclusives, I agree that is a different game - although even then it does depend on who they are exclusive to, whether it is just lego or lego and TRU or John Lewis (in UK).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,334
    If I want a set for my personal use; I will purchase immediately, discounted or not.
    TheLoneTensorcloaked7margot
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    goshe7 said:

    Somewhere, #40090 is crying because he isn't counted as a real Halloween set.

    You're right, of course. I was being elitist, because I don't really count those things as "sets" so much. That said, I did get #850936 and hoo boy it is a terrible set. The coffin is not a coffin, but rather 2 coffin lids that work as well as you expect they would. Plus, the vampire's face doesn't glow. Boo.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    edited October 2014
    It seems to me that Lego is purposely feeding the Brickpicker crowd by doing limited supply releases like the Research Institute and that 4x4 Technic vehicle (which I had zero interest in) last year. If they really cared about the average consumer then they wouldn't bother with limited releases in the first place.
    jack_bricks
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096

    TLG used to be more predictable about when a set was going to be EOL'd, allowing most to pick up a copy or two of what they wanted before it was gone.

    With very few exceptions, Lego does a pretty good job of letting people pick up a copy or two of every single set before it is gone. The only funny part is that for some strange reason, it's only the concept of EOL that finally kicks people into gear. It's really hard to feel compassion about say...someone not being able to pick up a Haunted House right now.

    You've been gone for awhile. Two words: Research Institute.

  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,936
    mathew said:

    It seems to me that Lego is purposely feeding the Brickpicker crowd by doing limited supply releases like the Research Institute and that 4x4 Technic vehicle (which I had zero interest in) last year. If they really cared about the average consumer then they wouldn't bother with limited releases in the first place.

    Agreed. They seem on one hand to be trying to cut off resellers, and then on the other hand they are pulling this limited stuff, which is impacted your standard consumer.

    Honestly, this is my fear if Doctor Who becomes an Ideas set. I have multiple kids here that will be completely disappointed if it comes out and Lego pulls another "Research Institute".

    Even if they do not and play to stock supply, there is still going to be an impact on the next Ideas set because of how they mangled, I mean handled, the last release.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,208
    mathew said:

    It seems to me that Lego is purposely feeding the Brickpicker crowd by doing limited supply releases like the Research Institute and that 4x4 Technic vehicle (which I had zero interest in) last year. If they really cared about the average consumer then they wouldn't bother with limited releases in the first place.

    Agreed.
    Limited releases would be OK, IF LEGO actually enforced the limit 1/1 per person to be ONE per person.
    The problem is that their site is woefully outdated, or ignored, in this regard (as other sites do not seem to have an issue with limiting purchases or catching and punishing those who try to circumvent it), plus each store decides what is their limit per person apparently. For Example, for RI I heard limit 1 at the store near me, but someone saying a store in the UK was limit 5. Then you do have those that legitimately would like multiple copies due to wanting one for each kid they have (and their kid is not named 'eBay') which could negate any demand for a hard limit in LEGO's eyes (I'm guessing here).
    I think it all depends on how strict LEGO really wants to be here. But if they fail to make such changes and rely on the good nature of people to control themselves, then you may as well stop limited releases as there will be those that will try to horde as many as they can knowing it is a limited set. While 41999 is not earning the 1000's Im sure some people hoped for, it is still well over retail to get your hands on one and has been that way about, what the 2/3 days after it was released and 'sold out' ( I forget how long it took now). Even with the release of the sets at stores, it still is well over retail.

    Just imagine how fast The Zombies set would have been gone had people known it was limited to about 6 months production. Then again I'm not sure it would have gotten up to near 200 per set now had speculators known and if LEGO did not have a hard number they would have stopped at for producing these.
    Angel_C
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 201
    edited October 2014
    tamamahm said:

    mathew said:

    It seems to me that Lego is purposely feeding the Brickpicker crowd by doing limited supply releases like the Research Institute and that 4x4 Technic vehicle (which I had zero interest in) last year. If they really cared about the average consumer then they wouldn't bother with limited releases in the first place.

    Honestly, this is my fear if Doctor Who becomes an Ideas set. I have multiple kids here that will be completely disappointed if it comes out and Lego pulls another "Research Institute".

    If anyone wants this set bad enough, they'll be ready at midnight when it's launched and buy one then. If someone misses out, they'll pay their convenience fee in the aftermarket.
    TheLoneTensor
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    exciter1 said:

    tamamahm said:

    mathew said:

    It seems to me that Lego is purposely feeding the Brickpicker crowd by doing limited supply releases like the Research Institute and that 4x4 Technic vehicle (which I had zero interest in) last year. If they really cared about the average consumer then they wouldn't bother with limited releases in the first place.

    Agreed. They seem on one hand to be trying to cut off resellers, and then on the other hand they are pulling this limited stuff, which is impacted your standard consumer.

    Honestly, this is my fear if Doctor Who becomes an Ideas set. I have multiple kids here that will be completely disappointed if it comes out and Lego pulls another "Research Institute".

    Even if they do not and play to stock supply, there is still going to be an impact on the next Ideas set because of how they mangled, I mean handled, the last release.

    If anyone wants this set bad enough, they'll be ready at midnight when it's launched and buy one then. If someone misses out, they'll pay their convenience fee in the aftermarket.
    Be ready at midnight, huh? Maybe if you don't have a life.
    Angel_C
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    Pitfall69 said:

    If I want a set for my personal use; I will purchase immediately, discounted or not.

    For me, it depends on the type of set. I'm comfortable waiting at least six months for a discount on any wide-release set. Recent history suggests this type of set is never discontinued earlier than that. I'm less likely to worry about discounts on sets cheaper than $20 because the discounts aren't particularly significant. But for wide-release sets in the $30 to $120 range, I feel buying at RRP is like throwing money away.
    Angel_C
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,088
    exciter1 said:

    tamamahm said:

    mathew said:

    It seems to me that Lego is purposely feeding the Brickpicker crowd by doing limited supply releases like the Research Institute and that 4x4 Technic vehicle (which I had zero interest in) last year. If they really cared about the average consumer then they wouldn't bother with limited releases in the first place.

    Honestly, this is my fear if Doctor Who becomes an Ideas set. I have multiple kids here that will be completely disappointed if it comes out and Lego pulls another "Research Institute".

    If anyone wants this set bad enough, they'll be ready at midnight when it's launched and buy one then. If someone misses out, they'll pay their convenience fee in the aftermarket.
    If Doctor Who gets through the review I really can't see it being an exclusive set, especially in the UK. It'll almost certainly be more like BTTF or GB, widely available at other retailers meaning potential for discounts.
    Even if they do sell out fast I would not expect it to be single run on initial phase. Remember that the Exo-suit demand really is AFOL fuelled, I can see why TLG struggled with predicting demand. The RI got a lot of news coverage and didn't sell as fast, but seems to be having stock still trickling into stores. The next Ideas set is massively unlikely to have a prexmas store date so it all seems moot.
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 201
    edited October 2014
    mathew said:

    Be ready at midnight, huh? Maybe if you don't have a life.

    ...and that's wherein lies the convenience fee.



    TheLoneTensorPitfall69dougtspharmjod
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    mathew said:

    TLG used to be more predictable about when a set was going to be EOL'd, allowing most to pick up a copy or two of what they wanted before it was gone.

    With very few exceptions, Lego does a pretty good job of letting people pick up a copy or two of every single set before it is gone. The only funny part is that for some strange reason, it's only the concept of EOL that finally kicks people into gear. It's really hard to feel compassion about say...someone not being able to pick up a Haunted House right now.

    You've been gone for awhile. Two words: Research Institute.

    Four words: With very few exceptions

    ShibdougtspharmjodMathBuilderhewman
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,590
    edited October 2014
    mathew said:

    exciter1 said:

    tamamahm said:

    mathew said:

    It seems to me that Lego is purposely feeding the Brickpicker crowd by doing limited supply releases like the Research Institute and that 4x4 Technic vehicle (which I had zero interest in) last year. If they really cared about the average consumer then they wouldn't bother with limited releases in the first place.

    Agreed. They seem on one hand to be trying to cut off resellers, and then on the other hand they are pulling this limited stuff, which is impacted your standard consumer.

    Honestly, this is my fear if Doctor Who becomes an Ideas set. I have multiple kids here that will be completely disappointed if it comes out and Lego pulls another "Research Institute".

    Even if they do not and play to stock supply, there is still going to be an impact on the next Ideas set because of how they mangled, I mean handled, the last release.

    If anyone wants this set bad enough, they'll be ready at midnight when it's launched and buy one then. If someone misses out, they'll pay their convenience fee in the aftermarket.
    Be ready at midnight, huh? Maybe if you don't have a life.
    AND if their website is working. Usually 30 seconds into a midnight launch of a sale or promo or hot item becoming available, it crashes.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,936
    exciter1 said:


    mathew said:


    Be ready at midnight, huh? Maybe if you don't have a life.

    ...and that's where in lies the convenience fee.



    Goodness, that is not about convenience.

    While the standard person that follows Lego forum will know these are out, and will be on at midnight, hoping that the system doesn't crash, or that they are not put on backorders that may or may not be fulfilled despite buying at midnight, that speaks nothing to the average consumer or the average parent that wants such a 'limited' set, whether Doctor Who or something else. By the time that the average consumer, Lego's main customer, is even aware of such a limited set it is too often well gone.
    What should they have done? Google daily to see if unknown items they are not aware, but might want, are about to be sold?


    Shib, that is what my hope is, that they will have multiple production runs, and that they plan larger runs, simply because it is an active license. (Now, I know I'm assuming Doctor Who when it is not a given, but I honestly can not imagine them not doing it.)


    The copies of '1' set are also difficult for families with multiple kids, which is why I presume that they often have higher limits. At the same time the inconsistent limits between locations makes things difficult.







  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,393
    Did RI really disappear just after midnight and no chance of getting one? It didn't in the UK. Same with the crawler - you had more than just a few minutes at midnight to get one.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,334
    The average consumer buys most of their Lego from Walmart, Toys R Us and Target. The above average consumer will also buy from Amazon and Ebay, but I think only a small percentage of people buy from the Lego website and Lego Brand Stores. The average consumer probably knew nothing of the RI and therefore were not the ones buying up all the sets.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    CCC said:

    Did RI really disappear just after midnight and no chance of getting one?

    No, I think I ordered one around 5 am. Possibly later.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 948
    edited October 2014
    Look what could be had on Amazon today!

    Along with TH, SC and GE.

    image
  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    TLG's master plan of getting us excited to buy unretired exclusives at retail with no discounts or freebies seems to be working. These have been popping up for the past couple hours on amazon.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 948
    LEGO Creator 10224 Town Hall @ Amazon, Go!
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    nkx1 said:

    goshe7 said:

    ...LEGO has done much better on their inventory management...

    It's almost as if Lego has done a 180 degree change with regard to sales forecasting/ inventory management. Instead of making enough product and having a little left over to discount (like they used to), they now seem to make too few sets and cannot meet demand (modulars, Tumbler, Tower of Orthanc, Imperial Star Destroyer, etc). It's hard to imagine that their current forecasting/ inventory management model is better than the old one.

    Of course, it could just be that Lego is simply more popular now than a few years ago and Lego is doing the best they can...
    I think you're right. Lego is not meeting demand 100% and they are more popular than ever.TLG seems calm about, they are still releasing many new sets while not many have yet fully retired.

    They may like that they are pushing their limits without doing too much harm like the Mincraft fiasco did. Not meeting the demand for afols is okay in their eyes. The growth model for any company should be to increase demand as much as you can without too many supply overages or shortages. I do believe they prefer the brief shortages of exclusives over the periods where they discounted heavily around the holidays to move stock.

    If they were really falling behind I think they would have to retire a bunch of sets around the same time and stop releasing new sets as frequently as they have in the past.

    I have also heard that shortages of the TH and Tumbler have been reseller driven, which is very concerning.
  • drlmiles1drlmiles1 UKMember Posts: 176
    binaryeye said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    If I want a set for my personal use; I will purchase immediately, discounted or not.

    For me, it depends on the type of set. I'm comfortable waiting at least six months for a discount on any wide-release set. Recent history suggests this type of set is never discontinued earlier than that. I'm less likely to worry about discounts on sets cheaper than $20 because the discounts aren't particularly significant. But for wide-release sets in the $30 to $120 range, I feel buying at RRP is like throwing money away.
    Actually, the 3 Guardians of the Galaxy sets were discounted (25% if I recall) when they first came out on Amazon, around the time that the movie came out. I thought "that's a good price" and decided I'd wait for them to come down a smidgeon more. Two days after I discovered the deal, they went up to full retail on Amazon. I still can't get my head round why Amazon did this, given that they were applying a significant discount at a time when they were most likely to get people to pay full retail. And the three sets are still not trackable on CamelCamelCamel
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