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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited October 2014
    mathew said:

    The Haunted House is a seasonal set. I doubt it was that great of a seller aside from the past few months when supply was drained. It will do well because it is popular with AFOL. But Green Grocer is largely considered one of the best, if not best modular ever produced. It also is part of a continuing theme unlike Monster Fighters.

    As I said I'm not into the minifigures nor the concept of a "haunted house" per se, but the house itself is very original and easily modifiable. My guess is that there are a lot more Green Grocer sets circulating out there than there are Haunted House sets. Time will tell...
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102

    [...]
    #10224
    [...]
    Don't forget #10211 or #10228 or #21110 or #10223 or #10221,although I suspect you have these already ;-)

    What a tangle of exclusive numbers. Only the IS #10212 could it make yet more a jumble :D

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    stevemack said:

    stevemack said:

    Off to buy some #10224 :) Thank god for working 5 mins away from a lego store!

    Don't forget #10211 or #10228 or #21110 or #10223 or #10221,although I suspect you have these already ;-)

    Lol... As with football stickers when I was a kid....

    Got Got Got Need Got :)

    :-) Good ole' days. Back when I was 9 I used to fund my 1986 panini football sticker collection by picking up coins from the school playground, making and selling sandwiches at school (cheaper than school dinners and it worked!) and an almighty paper round. Kids have it easy nowadays:-).... they get pocket money and the parents end up doing the paper round for them.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 906
    ^ Lol, 1986, I was only 2 then... My earliest panini sticker book is the premier league 1993 I think! Still have it somewhere!
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    What a year of big sets vanishing from [email protected]!! If yet the DS #10188 could be in 2014...
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    I think TH will do great EOL, as not many saw this coming, so will not be hoarded like GE
  • TarDomoTarDomo FinlandMember Posts: 515
    Cat ornament is already sold out so the other Christmas ornaments may be in danger to be sold out from Lego shop.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^That's crazy!!! How will I ever decorate my tree this year?
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,766
    Like everybody else with young kids. Toilet paper rolls and pompoms.
    indigobox
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    Cat ornament is available US [email protected]

  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    edited October 2014
    Generally speaking we can say three modular buildings vanished at the same time ( #10211 #10224 and #10228 ) in U.S. and europe/australia. So it will be very interesting to see how they will perform one each to another from now.
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    TarDomo said:

    Cat ornament is already sold out so the other Christmas ornaments may be in danger to be sold out from Lego shop.

    margot said:

    Cat ornament is available US [email protected]

    How about that? ;)

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Well, Santa's Workshop #10245 is now showing "out of stock, will ship in 30 days" at USA [email protected] It's unlikely to be gone this early, but if it is then the price is going to go through the roof. Perhaps TLG is getting back at everyone who grumbled about it. :-)
  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    #10224 TH came across amazon just now and I was able to order one. This has been sold out for several weeks.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,706
    bp10030 said:

    What a year of big sets vanishing from [email protected]!! If yet the DS #10188 could be in 2014...

    Someone here who has been pretty knowledgeable as to what stays and goes say that the DS is sticking around for another year.

    #10224 TH came across amazon just now and I was able to order one. This has been sold out for several weeks.

    Returned by customer to Amazon? Id check the box to ensure the set is there and not a bunch of garbage in the box.

    TH is uncertain as to if it is really gone for good or rampant speculation has made them unavailable. I just think back to either late last year or two years ago when GE was 'sold out' for about 3-4 weeks, and I think even disappeared from the site then was readily available again.

    Well, Santa's Workshop #10245 is now showing "out of stock, will ship in 30 days" at USA [email protected] It's unlikely to be gone this early, but if it is then the price is going to go through the roof. Perhaps TLG is getting back at everyone who grumbled about it. :-)

    I just think this speaks more to speculators getting piles during double points (and it seems it only takes a hint of it being gone and speculators start buying more and more) and more likely also the impression that with all the lines of LEGO being produced that stocks are likely going to continue running out and being on back order often.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Some good news: Ebay just relented a little with their mandatory holiday extended returns. Instead of the "stick" method where Top Rated sellers MUST provide extended returns, they've now gone with the "carrot" of a 5% discount on final value fees.
    dougtscloaked7BuriedinBricks
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    I just think this speaks more to speculators getting piles during double points (and it seems it only takes a hint of it being gone and speculators start buying more and more) and more likely also the impression that with all the lines of LEGO being produced that stocks are likely going to continue running out and being on back order often.

    I don't know...there are other sets I would stockpile before #10245 Santa's Workshop... #10237 Tower of Orthanc being one of them.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,706

    I just think this speaks more to speculators getting piles during double points (and it seems it only takes a hint of it being gone and speculators start buying more and more) and more likely also the impression that with all the lines of LEGO being produced that stocks are likely going to continue running out and being on back order often.

    I don't know...there are other sets I would stockpile before #10245 Santa's Workshop... #10237 Tower of Orthanc being one of them.
    Again I would say that more likely is the running out of stock because of demands on other lines.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    If Town Hall is indeed in it's death throes it will completely change the way a lot of people purchase for investment. I still have no idea but am leaning towards it actually being done out of order for any number of reasons. Will be fun to sit back and watch.
    FollowsClosely
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited October 2014
    Everything is really screwy lately with out of stock fluctuations, especially on new sets. None like we've seen before. Not sure what to make of it.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    I know it is a different site, but I'm not gonna lie, the discussion around TH possibly retiring out of order is highly entertaining over at that LEGO "Investing" site. What I have learned the most with that bunch though is buying power. HOLY CRAP! It is no joke how quickly the pack of wolves devours any deal or stock appearance of a suspected EOL set. Good luck to anyone here getting a HH or TH or GE or anything for that matter when the BP crowd is on the hunt.

    It seems they are pretty convinced that TH is going early and are doubling down on it with conviction. I am at my limit on that set though. Money and space eventually become a factor.
    FollowsClosely
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020

    One man's pack of wolves is another man's pile of lemmings.

    This sums up 434 pages of this topic thread! Though I'm not complaining, I LOVE this thread, and all of the insights, guesses, strategies all of you share. Thanks!
    juggles7
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    I'll be honest, I've seen better insight as to "predictions on discontinuing sets and their secondary market value" in that other thread than I have here in a long time, lemmings or not. I do still enjoy some of the commentary here as I like various personalities on this forum. However, as far as useful information goes regarding sales, deals and ACTUAL discourse on predictions this thread has stagnated for a long time.
    FollowsCloselyevileddie1313
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    ^because its the "any and all things reseller" thread.

    Seriously, though, it is hard to keep on top of multiple threads on multiple sites for deals. I suspect many people agree and therefore the "deals" tend to be compiled in one location. Brickset's specific topics are a great source for general sales. Just not the "hot" sales.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    pharmjod said:

    I'll be honest, I've seen better insight as to "predictions on discontinuing sets and their secondary market value" in that other thread than I have here in a long time, lemmings or not. I do still enjoy some of the commentary here as I like various personalities on this forum. However, as far as useful information goes regarding sales, deals and ACTUAL discourse on predictions this thread has stagnated for a long time.

    goshe7 said:

    ^because its the "any and all things reseller" thread.

    Seriously, though, it is hard to keep on top of multiple threads on multiple sites for deals. I suspect many people agree and therefore the "deals" tend to be compiled in one location. Brickset's specific topics are a great source for general sales. Just not the "hot" sales.

    The forum over "there" seems hard to follow for me and they do talk about a lot of the same things we do. Don't "get it twisted", there are some heavy hitters over here and may actually be some of the same people over "there", but with different names.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    I'm more just commenting that I haven't seen any really exciting sale information or stock status info on here in a while. Namely because those guys typically destroy them before it has a chance to get here. Both sites have useful constant sale information and for that I am appreciative.

    Also, the general attitude here about things such as Town Hall possibly going early have been more of a "meh" I doubt it sort of thing. I don't really have a huge vested interest either way, but to me the argument that it is going sooner rather than later is more compelling. None of that sort of stuff seems to be discussed as intently here as it used to be. Just an observation.
    joel4motion
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    I'll agree with the above 100%.

    The community's on the two sites are completely different though. I'll use the other site to my advantage when necessary as I feel that there are more people in the know. You've got resellers on there writing scripts for stock alerts, buying sets in bulk (50+) and clearing out all available stock when they get a chance. Nothing wrong with that, good luck to them but it's a much nicer place here.

    I managed to get a couple of HH and a RI last week for bricksetters whilst in store... Less likely to happen on the "dark side" though they do promote themselves as an investing website (IMO they do a decent job in that respect)
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    I frequent the other site and find it useful, but it is filled with a lot of users who are just jumping into reselling and get all geeked up over every little nugget of news that pops up (e.g., TH retiring, HH availability, etc.). Most of the folks who frequent here seem to have been doing this much longer and, as a result, have a much different outlook. It is still surprising to me to see folks over there talk about how they're $10k-$20k deep in inventory and have no experience selling sets.
    juggles7
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,687
    edited October 2014
    pharmjod said:

    However, as far as useful information goes regarding sales, deals and ACTUAL discourse on predictions this thread has stagnated for a long time.

    Most of the deals are posted in the country specific shopping threads.
  • TarDomoTarDomo FinlandMember Posts: 515
    about the cat ornament: sold out in Europe, I forgot to check out the US avaibility
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    pharmjod said:

    I'm more just commenting that I haven't seen any really exciting sale information or stock status info on here in a while. Namely because those guys typically destroy them before it has a chance to get here. Both sites have useful constant sale information and for that I am appreciative.

    Also, the general attitude here about things such as Town Hall possibly going early have been more of a "meh" I doubt it sort of thing. I don't really have a huge vested interest either way, but to me the argument that it is going sooner rather than later is more compelling. None of that sort of stuff seems to be discussed as intently here as it used to be. Just an observation.

    A few thoughts...

    1. The "deals" are fewer and further between these days. A few years ago, amazing crazy deals could be had more often. Even last year, anyone else remember the crazy 50% off Amazon was doing on some sets (Jabba's Sail Barge, I'm looking at you!)?

    2. Regarding the attitude of "meh, I doubt it", many of us have been burned both ways to the point of not caring. Some sets go away without warning, others stay past their expiry date. Could Town Hall go first? Yes, of course. But since GE hasn't even gone yet, much less PS, it would be 2 modulars out of palace to go early. TLG can do whatever they want, but that is a bit much.

    3. Finally, many of us who used to post all the time grew tired of it due to all the anti-reseller bashing. I know that did it for me anyway. I used to post all kinds of deals and thoughts, I largely stopped due to the negative attitude and vitriol of some members here.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    pharmjod said:

    I'm more just commenting that I haven't seen any really exciting sale information or stock status info on here in a while. Namely because those guys typically destroy them before it has a chance to get here. Both sites have useful constant sale information and for that I am appreciative.

    Also, the general attitude here about things such as Town Hall possibly going early have been more of a "meh" I doubt it sort of thing. I don't really have a huge vested interest either way, but to me the argument that it is going sooner rather than later is more compelling. None of that sort of stuff seems to be discussed as intently here as it used to be. Just an observation.

    A few thoughts...

    1. The "deals" are fewer and further between these days. A few years ago, amazing crazy deals could be had more often. Even last year, anyone else remember the crazy 50% off Amazon was doing on some sets (Jabba's Sail Barge, I'm looking at you!)?

    2. Regarding the attitude of "meh, I doubt it", many of us have been burned both ways to the point of not caring. Some sets go away without warning, others stay past their expiry date. Could Town Hall go first? Yes, of course. But since GE hasn't even gone yet, much less PS, it would be 2 modulars out of palace to go early. TLG can do whatever they want, but that is a bit much.

    3. Finally, many of us who used to post all the time grew tired of it due to all the anti-reseller bashing. I know that did it for me anyway. I used to post all kinds of deals and thoughts, I largely stopped due to the negative attitude and vitriol of some members here.
    @‌LegoFanTexas Well from a UK point of view point and not USA point of view...

    Point 1 I've seen 40-45% off Jabbas Sail barge and quite a few other lego sets, but it's not as much focused on Amazon, so the likes of Asda, occasionally argos etc. Maybe Amazon arnt getting their usually stock allocation so don't feel the need to discount. Certain stocks seems to be still discounted heavily, but again only in certain shops, e.g the #70504 has been £13 for what seems forever in Asda onine (UK). You guys seem to have Target at the moment that heavily discount beyond our wildest dreams.

    Point 2. Looks like GE has gone here as well as TH, sold out online and getting hard to find the TH in stores. Will be interesting to see which one brings in the greater profit margins.

    Point 3. I've never had a lot of anti-reselling bashing, even when I'd bought 60+ #10212's maybe its calmed down a bit, unless USA are bigger moaners than the UK and just say it how it is ;-) But I've always appreciated your comments, especially in what you believe will be EOL, very enthusiastic and its probably contributed to me spending 10's of thousands on Lego ;-), so thanks :-)



  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    4. "Predictions" have changed into inarguable known facts. We are smarter now about some aspects (ways to check retailer inventory, production date codes) that give insight into EOL. Other aspects, like stock status on LEGO [email protected] pages worldwide, have become infallible truths for some against which any other opinions or interpretations are ruthlessly squashed.
    minicoopers11dougtsAngel_C
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237

    2. Regarding the attitude of "meh, I doubt it", many of us have been burned both ways to the point of not caring. Some sets go away without warning, others stay past their expiry date. Could Town Hall go first? Yes, of course. But since GE hasn't even gone yet, much less PS, it would be 2 modulars out of palace to go early.

    In the spirit of The Other Place:

    Is that a hidden message? Does it mean Palace Cinema will soon be EoL? Should I view this guy as an oracle? I must get one of those scripts the other guys are talking about.
    BrickaholicpharmjodBumblepantsBuriedinBricks
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,706
    Well all I can say is this is not brick picker. This is more of a community of fans than unabashed hyper capitalists looking for the next big score, and that is what some have tried to turn it into IMO.
    I love that there are members that try to alert folks here to sales that pop up and I hope that does not stop (and I try to do the same, and expect a lot of forum traffic on Cyber monday this year).

    But I find it in extremely poor taste to get on and boast, 'I circumvent the limits to horde as much as I can',' I bought 20 of this or that'. Or the latest 27% fiasco where people talk about it, but refuse to explain how they arrive at that. Then seemingly talk down to those asking about it to gain knowledge to make LEGO cheaper for themselves (who may be needing such tips because their purse strings are a bit tighter than the guy exploiting the angle for their 50 sets).

    There is no need for it at all, it is simple boasting, plain and simple IMO, especially when you get on to make remarks about way to get a deal, then withhold more info about that (why say anything at all then?!). It should not impress anyone to hear someone boasting how much they have bought, or horded either. I think people fail to ask themselves: "Do people really need to know I have 20 Research institutes or 40 Fire Brigades or whatever other set I have bought a gajillion of? If so, why?"

    Now I'm not saying the non-sellers are all saints here, some get downright nasty when the topic comes up. I have been one of those in the past and have tried to temper my zeal when those topics come up (though my comments above may dispute that).

    But at the end of the day people choose what they post in this forum. If you go out of your way to say 'I bought 30 of them because I will be selling them later', then maybe you should rethink that. Is that REALLY needed info to the community? Do you tell all of your neighbors and such this in real life? Maybe some do and have no issue doing it and that is why they are shocked to see the reactions here.
    ZathrascheshirecatsidersddRainstorm26Angel_CLegoKipstarwarfan77
  • edgarallanpoe14edgarallanpoe14 Member Posts: 18
    edited October 2014

    2. Regarding the attitude of "meh, I doubt it", many of us have been burned both ways to the point of not caring. Some sets go away without warning, others stay past their expiry date. Could Town Hall go first? Yes, of course. But since GE hasn't even gone yet, much less PS, it would be 2 modulars out of palace to go early.

    In the spirit of The Other Place:

    Is that a hidden message? Does it mean Palace Cinema will soon be EoL? Should I view this guy as an oracle? I must get one of those scripts the other guys are talking about.
    Oh man, don't say things like that... in three forum pages' time it'll be accepted fact that Palace Cinema is on the way out and the panic buying will *actually* force it out of stock. :P
  • edgarallanpoe14edgarallanpoe14 Member Posts: 18
    Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the Town Hall 'EOL' is actually the jockeys on That Other Place panic buying 5 each on their 10 separate [email protected] accounts, and TLG just decided that they'd stop taking orders for a while to let the production schedule catch up with demand. We've already started to see the 'Sold Out' designation become less reliable, perhaps partially on the back of unexpectedly strong panic-demand stretching the production schedule beyond what TLG is comfortable with for certain larger sets produced in relatively low quantities. You could very well see Town Hall come back into stock in the new year or sooner, though that said the alternative wouldn't surprise me either given it's not reputed as a strong seller.
    juggles7
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    TH will be back, I don't doubt it at all. That's personally why I'm not very excited about it.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    Regarding whether predictions are as good here or not I can't remember what Dorian's fad said a few months ago, might be worth a check. Beyond that noticing that something is OOS at lego or Amazon and then jumping on it as it pops back in stock or grabbing store stock is hardly rocket science and any more-than-hobby reseller should be on it already.

    Making a stock alert application well hell I did that for tesco, john lewis and asda two years ago (although for sharing deals with bricksetters rather than hoarding stock)

    Most good stuff in the US isn't discounted so surely its really only hype and looking at stock levels for possible EOL.

    All that said, we should be glad of and celebrate our difference to the other place as they're meant to cater to very different audiences.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734

    You guys seem to have Target at the moment that heavily discount beyond our wildest dreams.

    Really? Aside from clearance, the only thing I can think of that you might be referring to is #60002 for $6. While a good deal, it's not exactly a desirable set and seems to be an isolated case.

    In store, Target's best deals are generally 20% to 25% off RRP.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    It will be interesting to see how the lack of discounts affects the aftermarket from some of the recent/soon to be EOL'd sets.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    I'm not saying this site should be brickpicker. I think this forum is more entertaining when we actually speculate about retiring sets and how that may affect strategy. It just seems like we don't do that as much anymore.

    I enjoy many of the personalities on here which is why I still visit this forum and post more regularly than I would elsewhere.
    juggles7Ronyar
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    prevere said:

    It will be interesting to see how the lack of discounts affects the aftermarket from some of the recent/soon to be EOL'd sets.

    I think a lot of expectations will be quashed personally.








  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    binaryeye said:

    You guys seem to have Target at the moment that heavily discount beyond our wildest dreams.

    Really? Aside from clearance, the only thing I can think of that you might be referring to is #60002 for $6. While a good deal, it's not exactly a desirable set and seems to be an isolated case.

    In store, Target's best deals are generally 20% to 25% off RRP.
    I might be wrong then, but it was just my conclusion having read the Target thread. They also have/had supplies of RI.

  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341

    binaryeye said:

    You guys seem to have Target at the moment that heavily discount beyond our wildest dreams.

    Really? Aside from clearance, the only thing I can think of that you might be referring to is #60002 for $6. While a good deal, it's not exactly a desirable set and seems to be an isolated case.

    In store, Target's best deals are generally 20% to 25% off RRP.
    I might be wrong then, but it was just my conclusion having read the Target thread. They also have/had supplies of RI.

    target in US never had RI. then had Exo-suit.
    Kmart had RI.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    Gavin83 said:

    TH will be back, I don't doubt it at all. That's personally why I'm not very excited about it.

    You say that as though you have concrete information or that's how I interpret it, is that the case?

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654

    Well all I can say is this is not brick picker. This is more of a community of fans than unabashed hyper capitalists looking for the next big score, and that is what some have tried to turn it into IMO.
    I love that there are members that try to alert folks here to sales that pop up and I hope that does not stop (and I try to do the same, and expect a lot of forum traffic on Cyber monday this year).

    But I find it in extremely poor taste to get on and boast, 'I circumvent the limits to horde as much as I can',' I bought 20 of this or that'. Or the latest 27% fiasco where people talk about it, but refuse to explain how they arrive at that. Then seemingly talk down to those asking about it to gain knowledge to make LEGO cheaper for themselves (who may be needing such tips because their purse strings are a bit tighter than the guy exploiting the angle for their 50 sets).

    There is no need for it at all, it is simple boasting, plain and simple IMO, especially when you get on to make remarks about way to get a deal, then withhold more info about that (why say anything at all then?!). It should not impress anyone to hear someone boasting how much they have bought, or horded either. I think people fail to ask themselves: "Do people really need to know I have 20 Research institutes or 40 Fire Brigades or whatever other set I have bought a gajillion of? If so, why?"

    Now I'm not saying the non-sellers are all saints here, some get downright nasty when the topic comes up. I have been one of those in the past and have tried to temper my zeal when those topics come up (though my comments above may dispute that).

    But at the end of the day people choose what they post in this forum. If you go out of your way to say 'I bought 30 of them because I will be selling them later', then maybe you should rethink that. Is that REALLY needed info to the community? Do you tell all of your neighbors and such this in real life? Maybe some do and have no issue doing it and that is why they are shocked to see the reactions here.

    lol, case in point as to why a lot of good contributions are driven from this site.
    JamesJT
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