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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value
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Comments
TH is uncertain as to if it is really gone for good or rampant speculation has made them unavailable. I just think back to either late last year or two years ago when GE was 'sold out' for about 3-4 weeks, and I think even disappeared from the site then was readily available again. I just think this speaks more to speculators getting piles during double points (and it seems it only takes a hint of it being gone and speculators start buying more and more) and more likely also the impression that with all the lines of LEGO being produced that stocks are likely going to continue running out and being on back order often.
It seems they are pretty convinced that TH is going early and are doubling down on it with conviction. I am at my limit on that set though. Money and space eventually become a factor.
Seriously, though, it is hard to keep on top of multiple threads on multiple sites for deals. I suspect many people agree and therefore the "deals" tend to be compiled in one location. Brickset's specific topics are a great source for general sales. Just not the "hot" sales.
Also, the general attitude here about things such as Town Hall possibly going early have been more of a "meh" I doubt it sort of thing. I don't really have a huge vested interest either way, but to me the argument that it is going sooner rather than later is more compelling. None of that sort of stuff seems to be discussed as intently here as it used to be. Just an observation.
The community's on the two sites are completely different though. I'll use the other site to my advantage when necessary as I feel that there are more people in the know. You've got resellers on there writing scripts for stock alerts, buying sets in bulk (50+) and clearing out all available stock when they get a chance. Nothing wrong with that, good luck to them but it's a much nicer place here.
I managed to get a couple of HH and a RI last week for bricksetters whilst in store... Less likely to happen on the "dark side" though they do promote themselves as an investing website (IMO they do a decent job in that respect)
1. The "deals" are fewer and further between these days. A few years ago, amazing crazy deals could be had more often. Even last year, anyone else remember the crazy 50% off Amazon was doing on some sets (Jabba's Sail Barge, I'm looking at you!)?
2. Regarding the attitude of "meh, I doubt it", many of us have been burned both ways to the point of not caring. Some sets go away without warning, others stay past their expiry date. Could Town Hall go first? Yes, of course. But since GE hasn't even gone yet, much less PS, it would be 2 modulars out of palace to go early. TLG can do whatever they want, but that is a bit much.
3. Finally, many of us who used to post all the time grew tired of it due to all the anti-reseller bashing. I know that did it for me anyway. I used to post all kinds of deals and thoughts, I largely stopped due to the negative attitude and vitriol of some members here.
1. The "deals" are fewer and further between these days. A few years ago, amazing crazy deals could be had more often. Even last year, anyone else remember the crazy 50% off Amazon was doing on some sets (Jabba's Sail Barge, I'm looking at you!)?
2. Regarding the attitude of "meh, I doubt it", many of us have been burned both ways to the point of not caring. Some sets go away without warning, others stay past their expiry date. Could Town Hall go first? Yes, of course. But since GE hasn't even gone yet, much less PS, it would be 2 modulars out of palace to go early. TLG can do whatever they want, but that is a bit much.
3. Finally, many of us who used to post all the time grew tired of it due to all the anti-reseller bashing. I know that did it for me anyway. I used to post all kinds of deals and thoughts, I largely stopped due to the negative attitude and vitriol of some members here.
Point 1 I've seen 40-45% off Jabbas Sail barge and quite a few other lego sets, but it's not as much focused on Amazon, so the likes of Asda, occasionally argos etc. Maybe Amazon arnt getting their usually stock allocation so don't feel the need to discount. Certain stocks seems to be still discounted heavily, but again only in certain shops, e.g the #70504 has been £13 for what seems forever in Asda onine (UK). You guys seem to have Target at the moment that heavily discount beyond our wildest dreams.
Point 2. Looks like GE has gone here as well as TH, sold out online and getting hard to find the TH in stores. Will be interesting to see which one brings in the greater profit margins.
Point 3. I've never had a lot of anti-reselling bashing, even when I'd bought 60+ #10212's maybe its calmed down a bit, unless USA are bigger moaners than the UK and just say it how it is ;-) But I've always appreciated your comments, especially in what you believe will be EOL, very enthusiastic and its probably contributed to me spending 10's of thousands on Lego ;-), so thanks :-)
Is that a hidden message? Does it mean Palace Cinema will soon be EoL? Should I view this guy as an oracle? I must get one of those scripts the other guys are talking about.
I love that there are members that try to alert folks here to sales that pop up and I hope that does not stop (and I try to do the same, and expect a lot of forum traffic on Cyber monday this year).
But I find it in extremely poor taste to get on and boast, 'I circumvent the limits to horde as much as I can',' I bought 20 of this or that'. Or the latest 27% fiasco where people talk about it, but refuse to explain how they arrive at that. Then seemingly talk down to those asking about it to gain knowledge to make LEGO cheaper for themselves (who may be needing such tips because their purse strings are a bit tighter than the guy exploiting the angle for their 50 sets).
There is no need for it at all, it is simple boasting, plain and simple IMO, especially when you get on to make remarks about way to get a deal, then withhold more info about that (why say anything at all then?!). It should not impress anyone to hear someone boasting how much they have bought, or horded either. I think people fail to ask themselves: "Do people really need to know I have 20 Research institutes or 40 Fire Brigades or whatever other set I have bought a gajillion of? If so, why?"
Now I'm not saying the non-sellers are all saints here, some get downright nasty when the topic comes up. I have been one of those in the past and have tried to temper my zeal when those topics come up (though my comments above may dispute that).
But at the end of the day people choose what they post in this forum. If you go out of your way to say 'I bought 30 of them because I will be selling them later', then maybe you should rethink that. Is that REALLY needed info to the community? Do you tell all of your neighbors and such this in real life? Maybe some do and have no issue doing it and that is why they are shocked to see the reactions here.
Making a stock alert application well hell I did that for tesco, john lewis and asda two years ago (although for sharing deals with bricksetters rather than hoarding stock)
Most good stuff in the US isn't discounted so surely its really only hype and looking at stock levels for possible EOL.
All that said, we should be glad of and celebrate our difference to the other place as they're meant to cater to very different audiences.
In store, Target's best deals are generally 20% to 25% off RRP.
I enjoy many of the personalities on here which is why I still visit this forum and post more regularly than I would elsewhere.
Kmart had RI.
I believe the discussions and temperament on this thread have evolved over time primarily due to the changes made by TLG to their business philosophy. TLG used to be more predictable about when a set was going to be EOL'd, allowing most to pick up a copy or two of what they wanted before it was gone. I even remember people actually congratulating each other on getting good deals. But now there seems to be fewer and fewer good deals to be found, so jealously seems to have picked up a notch or two. Add to that the massive increase in resellers competing for the same piece of pie and there’s now a backstory of the "haves and the have nots."
I do enjoy the spirited discussions on this thread, but at the end of the day it’s important to remember that we are only talking about plastic toys…not food, clothing and shelter.