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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    prevere said:

    I never understood the mint sauce with a rack of lamb...


    I think it originally came from a Shepherd who got so tired of eating Lamb that he thought adding some mint would add a different taste so that he could carry on eating.

    The rest is history
  • iso3200iso3200 97 miles from Brickset TowersMember Posts: 2,058
    I never understood cranberries with turkey (shudder). I like turkey. I like cranberries. But together? Really?
  • minicoopers11minicoopers11 USAMember Posts: 104
    iso3200 said:

    I never understood cranberries with turkey (shudder). I like turkey. I like cranberries. But together? Really?

    I love this combination. I love it so much, I apply it to Costco rotisserie chickens, since I don't eat turkey outside of Thanksgiving and Christmas. Chicken and cranberry sauce? Delicious!
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    iso3200 said:

    I never understood cranberries with turkey (shudder). I like turkey. I like cranberries. But together? Really?

    Well, you can't eat turkey by itself.

    What is cranberry sauce like in the UK? In the US, there are two kinds: the "real" kind, made from boiling cranberries with sugar and sometimes herbs (e.g. rosemary), which is usually more tart than sweet, and a jelly sold in cans (but still labeled as a sauce), which is usually more sweet than tart.

    My wife is a canner, so we eat apple, cranberry, and other sauces with meat all the time. Cranberry in particular is really good with pork.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited October 2014
    From reading through many of the posts it seems that some the Lego investors here on the board lived in a time when you could buy anything and everything Lego, and resell it on-line for a large profit after EOL. That doesn't work anymore,, they realize it now, but it resulted in these sellers losing some money. I'd be a little bit jaded too. However, at this point in time I'm 100% bullish on Lego investing and careful set selection.

    I'm still feeling like we're in very early innings. Everybody made fun of my mass media comment, when I stated that you'd see many 1st page google search news stories when Lego investing became bubblish. We don't see that now which means the average Joe on Main St. USA has not joined/ruined the party yet.

    When we get toppy you'll see news stories in the mainstream media outlets about rags to riches with Lego. Once that happens, I'll seriously consider making a change. Everyone should be asking themselves, if so many people are turning their houses into Lego stores, why no news. Here's the answer - we're in very early innings and there is no story (that they know about).

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited October 2014
    enotoga said:

    From reading through many of the posts it seems that some the Lego investors here on the board lived in a time when you could buy anything and everything Lego, and resell it on-line for a large profit after EOL. That doesn't work anymore,, they realize it now, but it resulted in these sellers losing some money. I'd be a little bit jaded too. However, at this point in time I'm 100% bullish on Lego investing and careful set selection.

    I'm still feeling like we're in very early innings. Everybody made fun of my mass media comment, when I stated that you'd see many 1st page google search news stories when Lego investing became bubblish. We don't see that now which means the average Joe on Main St. USA has not joined/ruined the party yet.

    When we get toppy you'll see news stories in the mainstream media outlets about rags to riches with Lego. Once that happens, I'll seriously consider making a change. Everyone should be asking themselves, if so many people are turning their houses into Lego stores, why no news. Here's the answer - we're in very early innings and there is no story (that they know about).

    Mortgage will be all paid off by Christmas thanks to Lego. My business model works for me just like apple sauce on Turkey, and cranberries as well but not mixed together. Turkey and apple sauce to the left of the tatties, turkey and cranberries to the right of the veg. Washed down with some home made 2013 damson gin.

    Whether it be sustainable in 10 years time? Who knows, but I have fingers in other pies to ensure I can still enjoy my turkey.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    Nice job Billy. That must be a great feeling with the mortgage. Having a second stream of income available in addition to a job is awesome. Ebay has provided that for me since 1998. My job provides the bulk of my income, and ebay provides a means of paying down debt more quickly and save/invest more. The second stream doesn't even have to be big - consistent action and discipline is the key.

    I often get mad at people who are financially undisciplined and perpetually complain about money. But then I remember that we need fincancially retarded people in our word. They serve a very important purpose.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited October 2014
    I agree. Financially irresponsible people do serve their purpose.
    FollowsClosely
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    enotoga said:

    Nice job Billy. That must be a great feeling with the mortgage. Having a second stream of income available in addition to a job is awesome. Ebay has provided that for me since 1998. My job provides the bulk of my income, and ebay provides a means of paying down debt more quickly and save/invest more. The second stream doesn't even have to be big - consistent action and discipline is the key.

    I often get mad at people who are financially undisciplined and perpetually complain about money. But then I remember that we need fincancially retarded people in our word. They serve a very important purpose.

    I was one of those people that was financially undisciplined although I never complained about it as it was my own doing and I'm a risk taker, Banks refused a business loan and just laughed at me when I said my primary income would be through selling lego.

    My response was that it wasn't as laughable as offering 7 x my annual wage when I first asked about a mortgage in 2000. So I whacked £20,000 of lego on my credit cards, ended up negotiating interest which was as low as the banks base rate as I said I would go bankrupt if they didn't play it my way, so it ended up being cheaper than a bank loan! . I wouldn't go as far as saying I was 'financially retarded' though. Credit cards all paid off and cut up now. Looking back on it now it was the banks that were financially incompetent.










  • david325david325 Member Posts: 138
    You paid off your mortgage but were below the VAT 20% threshold. Small mortgage then?!
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Financially undisciplined people in the US = the 99%. That means most people I know including my mother. Sometimes I get annoyed too when I hear irresponsible people complain about everything while they blow all their money on frivolous crap. However, when I see my roommate selling his stuff for money, getting services shut off because he didn't pay, and basically never having anything worthwhile because he's been cheap and irresponsible his whole life, I can't say I'm disappointed in myself. If people do not want to learn the real value of hard work and responsibility then oh well, life does need its idiots.

    As for Lego reselling, I don't do it just for the money. It wouldn't be worth it to me if I was selling barbie dolls, but I would like to tone it down some. Selling off the losers is the bad part. Avoid that in you should be good. I don't know about loading up on 100s of the same set though. One bad pick could mean a lot of work.
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    My plan is to have the LEGO investments pay off the kids university/college tuition. After that, maybe go on a nice trip :)
    Time is the key. For me I have a total of $200 invested, but an inventory over 50k that has built up over about 8 years. Still have about 6 years till the tuition bills start to come in and figure if I do nothing more until then, it should still go up another 100%. Most of what I sell is nisb but started out buying bulk lots and then selling complete sets (thank goodness for Bricklink!)
    Not sure what the hourly rate of return would be but I figure the time is less than what a lot spend watching baseball/football/basketball in a given year. I would rather go for a bike ride :)
    Play well!
    FollowsClosely
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Dougout said:

    Sometimes I get annoyed too when I hear irresponsible people complain about everything while they blow all their money on frivolous crap.

    Don't insult the Margaritaville home margarita maker; the US economy needs it. :)

    I approach LEGO as a nice-to-have upside. If my inventory appreciates in value and I can make some money, great. If the aftermarket tanks and nobody wants LEGO, I'll have some great sets to play with even if their cash value is $0.
    Shib
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Pitfall69 said:

    Get out of Debt Video

    @Pitfall - I tried to give you two thumbs up, but it took both of them away. So the purpose of this post is to tell you two thumbs up!! :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    Pitfall69 said:

    Get out of Debt Video

    @Pitfall - I tried to give you two thumbs up, but it took both of them away. So the purpose of this post is to tell you two thumbs up!! :-)
    I don't know anyone that has not made a financially irresponsible purchase, but I know plenty of people that have. This SNL video was great and the message still holds true today.

  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I like to consider myself pretty good with my finances but I've made plenty of irresponsible purchase namely post eol Cafe Corner, Green Grocer, Market Street and brick linking a 5000+ piece UCS Falcon. Funny how they are all Lego related :) I think everyone here is having a very bad influence on me.
    FollowsClosely
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited October 2014
    It's interesting how people here are deriding the financial responsibility of others, when we buy Lego toys (to use, not for resale). From what I've read, many here don't sell their favorite sets (often the most profitable, even used). So from a financial responsibility perspective, many people would consider that a waste of money. There are, after all, many free or near-free things people can do to entertain and enjoy themselves.

    I'm also surprised that some people are touting Lego as a viable investment vehicle, as an alternative to traditional investments. Are these people serious? Let's say you have $50k-$100k or more to invest each year. Even $20k. Are you really going to invest that in Lego? Selling that much each year is a part time job (or worse)! Not to mention all of the record keeping you need to do for tax purposes, since ebay will issue you a 1099 form for sales over $20k. I'm assuming Amazon also issues a 1099. Unless your full time job is selling toys and/or or you have a fully-staffed toy-selling business, Lego is probably not a realistic investment vehicle on any large scale if you have a full-time job. It's simply too much work, and possibly more risky than traditional investments.

    While it may be true that you can net a better ROI on Lego than many equities (currently- who knows what the future holds), the reality is you do quite a bit of work to get that, and the scalability is just not there for most people.
    david325
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited October 2014
    The single most important tool in weath building is this - LIVE BELOW YOUR MEANS. There are a million ways to build wealth. Most people choose to accumulate assets of some kind - could be rare coins, real estate, stocks, or Lego sets.

    I know plenty of people who look rich, make 400k per year, have a negative net worth, and are 2 paychecks away from Bankruptcy. How much money you make is far less important than how much money you keep. The vast majority of people in the USA keep nothing.

    If all you keep at the end of each week is a "paid for" Pet Shop, my hat is off to you. Lego has proven to be an appreciating asset over time. It's a small part of my portfolio but I'm confidant that it will prove to be a powerful asset if handled carefully. And at the end of the day, it's one of the coolest exciting toys ever created. Loved by all.
    FollowsCloselyspicemind
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    Can we chill out on the reseller money chat.....

    #21103 is now sold out at europe [email protected], gone from call to check
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    stevemack said:

    Can we chill out on the reseller money chat.....

    #21103 is now sold out at europe [email protected], gone from call to check

    Still available for sale in Australia on TRU online if anyone wants one.

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    david325 said:

    You paid off your mortgage but were below the VAT 20% threshold. Small mortgage then?!

    Yes relatively small, was around £9,000 to pay off at the start of this financial year.
    #10224 expected date continues to be pushed back further now 11th Nov


  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    I cant see #10224 going personally, 2 lego stores ive been in have plenty, I think its just a rumour was started and everyone started buying!

    Guess ill pick a couple up lol
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    ^What's the point if it's not going nowhere?

    Wouldn't the GE be the obvious choice to stock up on?
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    ^ i was joking! Already loaded up on #10211 :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited October 2014
    stevemack said:

    Can we chill out on the reseller money chat.....

    #21103 is now sold out at europe [email protected], gone from call to check

    This thread is commonly referred to as the "Reseller" thread, so discussion about investing in Lego is generally accepted. Would you prefer we continue talking about Turkey and cranberries?

    So, I will continue...
    nkx1 said:

    It's interesting how people here are deriding the financial responsibility of others, when we buy Lego toys (to use, not for resale). From what I've read, many here don't sell their favorite sets (often the most profitable, even used). So from a financial responsibility perspective, many people would consider that a waste of money. There are, after all, many free or near-free things people can do to entertain and enjoy themselves.

    I'm also surprised that some people are touting Lego as a viable investment vehicle, as an alternative to traditional investments. Are these people serious? Let's say you have $50k-$100k or more to invest each year. Even $20k. Are you really going to invest that in Lego? Selling that much each year is a part time job (or worse)! Not to mention all of the record keeping you need to do for tax purposes, since ebay will issue you a 1099 form for sales over $20k. I'm assuming Amazon also issues a 1099. Unless your full time job is selling toys and/or or you have a fully-staffed toy-selling business, Lego is probably not a realistic investment vehicle on any large scale if you have a full-time job. It's simply too much work, and possibly more risky than traditional investments.

    While it may be true that you can net a better ROI on Lego than many equities (currently- who knows what the future holds), the reality is you do quite a bit of work to get that, and the scalability is just not there for most people.

    Obviously, there are several factors involved to investing in Lego. I don't feel that it is too much work selling Lego. I "waste" far more time on this forum than I do actually selling Lego. I would never quit my full-time job to sell Lego, unless selling Lego nets me more money. I only sell to supplement my income and nothing more. There are many people that are out of work in the US and I would have more respect for a person reselling Lego to support their family, than I person who just wants to collect a check from the government.

    Hindsight is always 20/20, but I wished I had more capital to invest in #4842 Hogwarts Castle. I bought as much as I could (even damaged boxes) and I would have bought more if I had the money to invest.

    FollowsCloselypharmjod
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    I'm gutted I got into it just as harry potter was discontinued! Only managed a bunch of DAs
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited October 2014
    stevemack said:

    I'm gutted I got into it just as harry potter was discontinued! Only managed a bunch of DAs

    My Hogwarts Castle to Diagon Alley ratio was 8:1 I wish that I hadn't bought any Diagon Alley's and just bought more Hogwarts Castle. I knew Hogwarts Castle was going to be an awesome investment, but I just ran out of capital :(

    I will tell you that I made most of my money from used Harry Potter sets and small damaged box sets. I would find crushed sealed boxes on clearance from time to time and made a killing selling those.

  • IstokgIstokg MichiganMember Posts: 2,270
    OK... I've been reading without commenting up til now... but when I hear things like "investing in LEGO to pay for kids college tuition"... alarm bells go off... I am reminded of the 1990s Beanie Babies frenzy... and the excessive exuberance that some folks felt over them.

    Plan for college fund with LEGO? Check this story out first....
    http://www.businessinsider.com/family-spends-100000-on-beanie-babies-2013-7?op=1

    I look at the LEGO craze of the last decade in a very different way than many of you newbies (I say that because I've been at it for 54 years)...

    But the good times with LEGO.... will they last for ever? Or will there be another Sports Card bubble waiting to burst in the future as there was late in the 20th century....
    http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2010/03/the_great_baseball_card_bubble.html

    Smart investors seem to go against the general herd mentality... and where there's a herd... there usually trouble on the horizon. From that previous link I saw this quote...

    "Baseball cards first became seen as promising investments, setting the stage for a decade of speculation and overproduction."

    And when I think of overproduction... I think of the Collectible Minifigs (CMFs)... the LEGO factory in China is probably working 3 shifts to satisfy the "collectors frenzy" in North America, Europe and Asia. In 20 years time the amount of these available on the secondary market will still be staggering... as all you mint box collectors will likely be disappointed with your investments...

    Oh well there's always those Princess Diana Beanie Babies...

    Some lucky seller is selling a "rare" pair for $652,000....
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/2-Princess-Diana-Beanie-Babies-Authenticated-Super-Rare-The-Ghost-Version-/251533925380?pt=Beanbag_Plush_US&hash=item3a90971c04

    ... oh wait... that was just the highest of the 1,343 Beanie Babies on Ebay right now... others such as this one for a $1.99 "Buy It Now" price... get no takers at the opening 75 cent bid (only 1 day left in auction for this bargain!!!)
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Princess-Diana-Beanie-Baby-with-Clear-case-/121461465375?pt=Beanbag_Plush_US&hash=item1c47aae11f

    I am of the opinion that more and more investors are entering the LEGO market (there are even Facebook pages on LEGO investing)... where ever hobbyists encounter investors... there is likely trouble on the horizon when the folks who are in it not for the hobby, but for the investment... the investment herds will then go elsewhere on to a new subject for investor frenzy... thus leaving hobbyists disgruntled and angry. While I'm not saying that there may be a LEGO bubble waiting to burst... I am saying that caution should be the order of the day. For every wildly successful 10179 Millennium Falcon... or 10185 Green Grocer... there are hundreds of sets that are not quite as successful.

    So before you go investing into your children's future in LEGO... think it over very very carefully...

    ShibBrickarmorspicemindjuggles7Rainstorm26
  • david325david325 Member Posts: 138
    I couldn't agree more. Very well said @Istokg‌
  • david325david325 Member Posts: 138
    Ready for the but but but but buts....
    FollowsClosely
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    edited October 2014
    From one of those ridiculous Diana Beanie Babies listings:

    "***Own Two of the Rarest Princess's Ever Produced***" [in comic sans]

    Fuck me, you're asking $652,000 for something and you can't even pluralize 'Princess' correctly or use a font other than comic sans?
    FollowsClosely
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    All good points. I remember holding a baseball card in my hands back in 1989 during the craze. I thought to myself - this is not going to end well, largely due to the fact that any monkey with a printing press can counterfeit these things. The intrinsic value of beanie babies and baseball cards don't compare in any way to Lego.

    That said, a good understanding of bubble dynamics is a valuable tool. IMO we are well below the radar with Lego investing at this time.

    WE DON"T FEAR a bubble in Lego. We pray for a bubble as it would present a gold-mine exit opportunity.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,677

    Istokg said:

    ... alarm bells go off... I am reminded of the 1990s Beanie Babies frenzy... and the excessive exuberance that some folks felt over them.

    "Baseball cards first became seen as promising investments, setting the stage for a decade of speculation and overproduction."

    What is the intrinsic value of a beanie baby? You cannot open a beanie baby up and sell off the stuffing inside and the outer fabric for much money.

    The basic lego bricks will be worth something, unless the entire hobby collapses and nobody wants lego at all.
    Istokg said:



    And when I think of overproduction... I think of the Collectible Minifigs (CMFs)... the LEGO factory in China is probably working 3 shifts to satisfy the "collectors frenzy" in North America, Europe and Asia. In 20 years time the amount of these available on the secondary market will still be staggering... as all you mint box collectors will likely be disappointed with your investments...

    I wasn't disappointed with my investments in S1 zombies (all three of them!), S3 elves or S6 romans. I sold off the roman torso and legs for twice what I paid for the complete minifigs, leaving me with the silver helmets and shields to go with my S10 roman body parts.

    While there may be large volumes of CMF on the market, investing in specific ones can pay dividends.
    Istokg said:


    I am of the opinion that more and more investors are entering the LEGO market (there are even Facebook pages on LEGO investing)... where ever hobbyists encounter investors... there is likely trouble on the horizon when the folks who are in it not for the hobby, but for the investment... the investment herds will then go elsewhere on to a new subject for investor frenzy... thus leaving hobbyists disgruntled and angry. While I'm not saying that there may be a LEGO bubble waiting to burst... I am saying that caution should be the order of the day. For every wildly successful 10179 Millennium Falcon... or 10185 Green Grocer... there are hundreds of sets that are not quite as successful.

    So before you go investing into your children's future in LEGO... think it over very very carefully...

    I agree, although when investors decide to dump and run, there can be bargains to be had. I also agree to be careful in what you invest in. Don't invest in everything, but know what you are investing in.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,912
    We have been down the Beanie Babies/Trading Cards/Lego comparison road at least a half dozen times over the last few years I have actively followed this site. I think there is some merit to the argument, particularly the over-saturation brought up by @Istokg. Star Wars is a good example, years back you could count on most sets within that theme getting decent returns. Now with every ship remade into its 3rd, 4th, or even 5th version you would be lucky to get RRP. At some point, there will be so many Modulars available, a lot of folks might lose the gotta have 'em all mentality causing a drop in demand.

    That said, Lego bricks have intrinsic value whereas cardboard pictures (and to a lesser extent, styrofoam pellets in animal bags) do not have that much value in and of themselves. Lego will always have some value. Just maybe not the wild increases in value we have seen in the past.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,677

    Just maybe not the wild increases in value we have seen in the past.

    We haven't seen wild increases in value on every set in the past, only on certain sets. So the situation is not really much different now as to in the past, apart from the number of people betting on which sets will increase in value. More people wanting to sell the same thing will obviously decrease the resale value - although that is somewhat contrasted by sets like Fire Brigade, where a decent profit can be made despite some people saying that everyone has them stashed away for resale.

    I'm mid-40s and I reckon people have speculated on buying new toys for investment for the most part of my life.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ I agree about SW LEGOS. That is obviously the case now and will probably be so from now on. And, I think you're right about the modulars too. At some point (not sure what it is) there are too many and a person won't have to have all of them. Or, they pick up 2-3 current ones for the price of trying to get just 1 retired set.

    Other than the storage costs, etc. I won't lose money on any of the LEGO sets I have. Worst case, I think I would be able to sell most of them near RRP. So, even if the market bottoms out it will never truly hit rock bottom to the point that I lose lots of money.
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,677
    The thing with SW, they may have remade ships in the past but what if they don't in the future? With the new SW coming, they may well concentrate on that instead of going back to the OT. Imagine if they don't make another X-wing (or some other ship not in the new SW) for 10 or 15 years. People will be kicking themselves for not realising that was one of the sets to stock up on.
    FollowsClosely
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    I think the world has woken up to LEGO as much more than a toy company for kids. I'm citing partnerships with Disney, movies, tv shows, adult-focus sets, video games, online games as some of the reasons for the intensified interest in the company.

    The result of this culture of LEGO is that newborns today will soon get there hands on DUPLO and start the process of becoming a buyer. There aren't many children these days craving beanie babies or sportscards.

    Consider this the new normal, but it's not a bubble.
    pharmjod
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    How much are your current good times because of Legos major production capacity issues? What happens when Lego bring online a new factory or two? Sure that shouldn't directly impact the longer term investors but there's been a lot of running around after tumblers, exo suits, RIs and 41999s recently.
    FollowsCloselyjuggles7
  • DadsAFOLDadsAFOL USAMember Posts: 617
    Gary's post made me think of something interesting. The active reseller market is currently only capitalizing on "modern" Lego sets - stuff from the last 10 years or so. You can get $1200+ for a Cafe Corner right now, but step farther back in time and most Legoland sets - Town, Castle, Space, Western, etc. don't go anywhere close to a 10x multiple return. I'm not saying that pre-2000 sets are worthless - just that if you had poured your college fund into #6390 Main Street or #6970 Beta I Command Base in 1980, your kids would have gone to community college.

    I'm not a hard core reseller, but I dabble in it. The safety net for me is the intrinsic value of the parts. If I can't get an ROI I want on a set for resale, I can always part it out and cash out that way. So I agree with the sentiments of caution - if you are going to invest, do it wisely. Personally, I think any resellers that aren't Lego hobbyists are doomed to fail. If you don't understand the motivation of builders and collectors, you won't have insight as to which sets will appreciate. Lego produces 400+ products a year, and maybe 5% of those will appreciate enough in a couple years to make reselling Lego a better choice than investing in stocks.
    preveredougtsFollowsCloselylego007thenospharmjod
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922

    How much are your current good times because of Legos major production capacity issues? What happens when Lego bring online a new factory or two? Sure that shouldn't directly impact the longer term investors but there's been a lot of running around after tumblers, exo suits, RIs and 41999s recently.

    I agree. The quick-flipping market has really taken off lately. But that will vanish if they could just keep things in stock. Lego does what, 70% of their business in the 12 weeks leading up to Xmas?
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,977
    prevere said:

    How much are your current good times because of Legos major production capacity issues? What happens when Lego bring online a new factory or two? Sure that shouldn't directly impact the longer term investors but there's been a lot of running around after tumblers, exo suits, RIs and 41999s recently.

    I agree. The quick-flipping market has really taken off lately. But that will vanish if they could just keep things in stock. Lego does what, 70% of their business in the 12 weeks leading up to Xmas?
    Those numbers would not surprise me. Even if it was only 50% of their business, it explains why they have to use manufacturing capacity they have to try to pump out the sets they 'think' they will sell during that time frame.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    The 70% came from the MegaFactories tv epsiode about Lego, and that was done about 3-4 years ago.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,420
    DadsAFOL said:

    Personally, I think any resellers that aren't Lego hobbyists are doomed to fail.

    There is more truth in this than anything else. Let's be fair, worst case scenario, you can't sell a set so you part it out, if it doesn't sell then you still have Lego to add to any MOCs etc. Obviously there are those that might be interested in Lego but not enjoy MOCing, so if they are stuck with dozens of the same set it's going to stick in the craw, but if they have an interest in Lego I'm sure they are more prepared to wait it out than those that aren't.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,677
    DadsAFOL said:

    I'm not saying that pre-2000 sets are worthless - just that if you had poured your college fund into #6390 Main Street or #6970 Beta I Command Base in 1980, your kids would have gone to community college.

    I guess it depends how many you had held, and how many people wanted them.

    None sold on BL for #6390, suggesting current listing prices are too high, or not wanted.

    £500 for new #6970 (1 sale), £90 used (a few sales). Being able to get £500 for that set is not bad at all, being able to get £25K for 50 of them is probably going to be much harder.

    I think part of the reason people don't want the older stuff is that it is not that great compared to new. Sure, there is the nostalgia factor, but for me I'd normally pick a new set over the old.

    Will people in the future want today's sets? Who knows. However, a clued up reseller doesn't purchase then leave sets in the cupboard for 20 years. He lets them rise in price then sells when the price increases (not necessarily the price) starts to fall below an acceptable level.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited October 2014
    Shib said:

    DadsAFOL said:

    Personally, I think any resellers that aren't Lego hobbyists are doomed to fail.

    Obviously there are those that might be interested in Lego but not enjoy MOCing, so if they are stuck with dozens of the same set it's going to stick in the craw, but if they have an interest in Lego I'm sure they are more prepared to wait it out than those that aren't.
    That's me exactly. I enjoy Lego but don't really do MOCing. I sell sets here and there to supplement the cost of buying Lego and to try to make an "easy" buck when possible. However, I never plan to have much more than $10k in inventory (if that). That's the amount I'm comfortable losing on this gamble if things go south. I'm sure everyone will have higher and lower risk thresholds.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,677
    DadsAFOL said:

    Personally, I think any resellers that aren't Lego hobbyists are doomed to fail. If you don't understand the motivation of builders and collectors, you won't have insight as to which sets will appreciate.

    I'm surprised to see how many BL sellers are not really lego builders/collectors, especially among the bigger ones. Someone can study the market to work out which ones will appreciate, even if they have no interest in what's in the box.
    FollowsClosely
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    stevemack said:

    I cant see #10224 going personally, 2 lego stores ive been in have plenty, I think its just a rumour was started and everyone started buying!

    Guess ill pick a couple up lol

    Just a rumour? It's been "sold out" at Shop at Home since October 4th in the US and Canada.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    ^ And what does sold out mean? Doesn't mean retired that's for sure!
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