Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

vasp · October 2014

[email protected] usa has town hall b/o for 18th oct (limit 2) . Same applies to PS (limit 5).

btw, amazon is out of town hall. Did not last long

TechnicNick · October 2014

LegoFanTexas said:

gmpirate said:
Funny how our priorities and practicalities change as we get older. I always thought I would want something like a Ferrari but it's so impractical with kids and I really get annoyed with maintenance and cost of ownership. I actually found the E63 to be the perfect compromise. But even that just sits in the garage most of the time while I drive my truck. My wife likes to remind me of that every so often too.
The other day, my wife and I were leaving the mall from some shopping and someone passed us driving a yellow Lamborghini Gallardo. He wasn't being crazy, but he did put the hammer down leaving the stop light and that 550hp V10 engine just makes a noise that is all unique... And for some reason, I don't mind that he does it, because in that car, you're SUPPOSED TO DO IT. :)

Nothing worse than someone who owns a 550hp super car and never really puts the pedal down. Go run it and make it live... safely of course, he never got very fast before letting it off.

Love to see (and hear!) a car like that. It's a car everyone can enjoy, whether they can afford it or not.

I was surprised to see at the Lego stall at the STEAM show a single #10229 WV cottage - I thought that had gone ages ago.

madforLEGO · October 2014

vasp said:
[email protected] usa has town hall b/o for 18th oct (limit 2) . Same applies to PS (limit 5).

btw, amazon is out of town hall. Did not last long

Yeah the speculators are buying out Amazon because of free shipping and no sales tax (for most states). I just cannot justify buying more of these. At least this early ( I still do not think they are done, despite perceived lack of interest and price point) Same with PS, though I'm guessing PS is next in line to go next year. I would rather have a bunch of those than a bunch of Town Halls in terms of parts

vasp · October 2014

May be TH is not going now. But we are just 2 months away from the crazy rush and with stock at this situation, returns are going to be fairly decent. May be not 100-200%+ appreciation. I'd say good short term returns. I wouldn't say lack of interest. At a $300 price point about 10 sold in a day

herekittykitty · October 2014

Town Hall is sold out again on S&H USA. Darn it, hopefully it comes back again.

Really kicking myself now for not buying it back when it was included in those crazy amazon/walmart sales.

SuperTramp · October 2014

SSD is available to order again @ [email protected](europe), expected ship date 27 Nov.

SuperTramp · October 2014

lol, now sold out.

prevere · October 2014

vasp said:
Yes it is.

Town Hall on amazon. Limit 2

Isn't the limit of 2 on every set via Amazon these days?

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

.

prevere said:

vasp said:
Yes it is.

Town Hall on amazon. Limit 2
Isn't the limit of 2 on every set via Amazon these days?

yes, it is... used to be 5 on most, some had no limit, but now it is a hard 2 on everything.

you can order once per week, it resets in 7 days. gives everyone a chance to buy. :)

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

wagnerml2 said:
My 2014 Yukon Denali is all the midlife crisis I need!

That is what I drive, abit the XL version (GMC version of the Suburban for those who don't know).

I had an older one, recently got a nice new 2015 model for all the new technology in it. (Adaptive Cruise Control, Emergency Crash Braking, Cross traffic alert, lane departure warning, magnetic ride control, power fold flat third row seats, etc.)

I have 3 kids and haul stuff, and we often have their friends with us. Just yesterday we celebrated my son's 9th birthday, took 2 of his friends along with us bowling, along with the presents.

The fact that the truck easily fits 7 of us, plus all the stuff for a party, in comfort, is really nice.

Would a minivan do that? Sure... but not with as much style. :) Besides, I live in Texas and the air conditioned seats are almost a requirement here.

#FirstWorldProblems indeed... :)

At the end of the day, I bought it because of the safety features, the emergency crash braking only has to avoid a single accident with my kids in the truck to be worth every penny.

I share with you this video, those of you who have kids, I'm sure you understand... (Clean video, safe for work)

Dad · October 2014

^ Dad's Sixth Sense?? It didn't look like he had any sense not noticing that car reversing out. Jesus.. I don't think I'd get in a car with him ever again!!

nkx1 · October 2014

^Haha, nice. You'd think one of them would have noticed that. It seems to me that if he put more effort into watching his kid, most of those incidents would have never occurred!

That emergency crash braking feature seems nice nonetheless.

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

Well yea, that is a good point... he saves his kid from everything, then spaces out in the car! :)

But of course then we couldn't see the wonderful Auto Emergency Braking at work. :)

My son just turned 9, rest assured he'll never drive a car without it. I was 16 once, lord they should never have let me drive then, I was a menace. :)

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

BTW, my youngest son is 4, it is totally possible that by the time he is driving, we'll have auto-drive cars and it may or may not be beside the point.

After all, I never learned to drive a stick, there will come a time when people just don't bother to learn to drive. I think it will come sooner than most expect.

When I was a kid, air conditioning, power windows, automatic transmissions, etc. were all optional on cars. Now, not only are THOSE standard, but we have standard anti-lock brakes, air bags, and a hundred other things in cars... Reverse cameras are now going to be required in all cars, I think next year or the year after...

-----------

So, anyone want to make a prediction on when we'll see the first mass-produced self-driving car? Will it be Google, or someone else?

prevere · October 2014

LegoFanTexas said:
BTW, my youngest son is 4, it is totally possible that by the time he is driving, we'll have auto-drive cars and it may or may not be beside the point.

Good. Now, I'll be able to sort while commuting to work.

theLEGOman · October 2014

Did you see the video of Volvo's early attempt at auto braking?

monkeyhanger · October 2014

LegoFanTexas said:

So, anyone want to make a prediction on when we'll see the first mass-produced self-driving car? Will it be Google, or someone else?

I think they could be doing it right now if they really wanted. My dad opted for the same car as I currently have (VW Golf GTD), but he went with the DSG auto (I hate autos, dual clutch with flappy paddles or otherwise). On mine, the adaptive cruise has a radar in the front to maintain a safe distance from the car in front (if there is one) and will speed back up following a slowdown (up to your set speed limit). If the car in front slams on the brakes, the manual will give a short sharp bang on the brakes to prompt you to brake properly, if it thinks a crash is likely if you don't intervene. It won't brake fully as it could stall the car when the revs fall with braking stuck in a gear. With the DSG the car can be brought right down to a standstill automatically through the gears and take off again back up to speed. Lane assist is an option on the range - if you could tie in that tech with the satnav and traffic light status recognition to put in a destination, it doesn't seem much of a stretch of the imagination for the car to be able to drive you there.

Of course auto driving cars will only really be successful if we're all at it, us humans car be so unpredictable to even the smartest piece of tech.

Gavin83 · October 2014

LegoFanTexas said:
So, anyone want to make a prediction on when we'll see the first mass-produced self-driving car? Will it be Google, or someone

Probably not long. However saying that the person in the car will still need to have a licence, can't be drunk, etc so I'd imagine it'll be a long time (if ever) before a non driver is allowed to be in charge of a car.

piratemania7 · October 2014

I'm most interested in seeing if and when TH becomes available again. I was a bit surprised it went right to Sold Out as ubiquitously as it did.

Sorry to detract from everyone's talk about cars and mid-life crises...

vasp · October 2014

ToO is gone from all avenues except for [email protected], usa

lulwut · October 2014

Hard to believe we're no longer seeing the cutthroat price slashing seen two years ago on big sets: $120 Town Halls, $280 Death Stars, $260 SSDs. WoW!

Everyone bought cars? I sold a large portion of my 'collection' and diverted it toward something fast and reckless.

matticus_bricks · October 2014

I went to my local Lego store today hoping to find some near-EOL exclusives, but they did not have Town Hall or Haunted House. I asked the employee working there and she said that both sets are sold out and retiring. This is expected for HH, but I'm really hoping the TH sticks around for a little while. Anyway, I ended up getting a Pet Shop, as this one seems to be at risk of retirement soon too.

nkx1 · October 2014

piratemania7 said:
I'm most interested in seeing if and when TH becomes available again. I was a bit surprised it went right to Sold Out as ubiquitously as it did.

Yeah, TH certainly disappeared pretty quickly. In general, many of the larger (presumably slower-selling) sets, including many modulars, appear to have sold out at many retailers; notably, TRU. I'm totally guessing, but it's probably a production issue, and most of these will be back. With the large number of sets Lego is producing now, it might be hard to fit in production runs of any one set when it sells out unexpectedly. Although, to have so many large sets sell out like that, maybe Lego needs to up their sales forecasting game.

Btw, nice Ninja. That looks so fun. I'd probably kill myself within a week on one of those, so I'm probably better off with a sports car.

madforLEGO · October 2014

lulwut said:
Hard to believe we're no longer seeing the cutthroat price slashing seen two years ago on big sets: $120 Town Halls, $280 Death Stars, $260 SSDs. WoW!

In the US, there are no more discounts on DS, TH, or other 'exclusive' sets. So if you want one you are likely paying retail for em. The best you can likely do is get them with 2x VIP points when LEGO is running one of those promotions to get something back.
Plus pretty sure TH is still at the store by me, though that was on Saturday, not sure if they are still hanging around.

Also interestingly enough, the #31012 Family house is back to Sold out again.. Wonder if this is only due to low stocks of the set though as I think it has not been out that long.

monkeyhanger · October 2014

I haven't been on a motorbike since I was 14 and our gang of mates were taking turns on on of the lad's scrambler. It was my go when the Forestry commission turned up and I ended up shooting off into the woods at Kielder (didn't get caught). Yes, I was a little b'stard when I was a kid! ;)

vasp · October 2014

madforLEGO said:

lulwut said:
Hard to believe we're no longer seeing the cutthroat price slashing seen two years ago on big sets: $120 Town Halls, $280 Death Stars, $260 SSDs. WoW!

In the US, there are no more discounts on DS, TH, or other 'exclusive' sets. So if you want one you are likely paying retail for em. The best you can likely do is get them with 2x VIP points when LEGO is running one of those promotions to get something back.
Plus pretty sure TH is still at the store by me, though that was on Saturday, not sure if they are still hanging around.

Also interestingly enough, the #31012 Family house is back to Sold out again.. Wonder if this is only due to low stocks of the set though as I think it has not been out that long.

#31012 is done. The only place available currently is tru. Not sure how long it will last there.

#3185 is done at tru also. May be sporadic stock in store. That's it.

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

lulwut said:
Hard to believe we're no longer seeing the cutthroat price slashing seen two years ago on big sets: $120 Town Halls, $280 Death Stars, $260 SSDs. WoW!

Everyone bought cars? I sold a large portion of my 'collection' and diverted it toward something fast and reckless.

Very nice bike... :)

Not a rider myself, but that one sure looks sweet! :)

cheshirecat · October 2014

Its a true mid life crisis if its got just two wheels.

rocao · October 2014

As a reminder, we have an 'Off Topic' category for discussions that don't pertain to LEGO, i.e. 'Predictions on what cars we would buy if we were in a mid-life crisis and their total cost of ownership'

Farmer_John · October 2014

^Or perhaps "Predictions of Sets We Would Buy If We Were in a Mid-Life Crisis." The UCS MF #10179 is at the top of my list...

monkeyhanger · October 2014

Don't mention the reselling of cars when you fancy a change. :)

FollowsClosely · October 2014

HH back at Amazon!

Edit: never mind

xeeeej · October 2014

doriansdad said:
I won't be posting on this site for a while due to the scabs over at brickpicker sharing all the info which I want to be for this community only.

I find this hilariously ironic, coming from the person who hinted at but never shared things like 27% off exclusives and $140 Tower Bridges.

Whatever will we do without your fount of knowledge!? :(

cloaked7 · October 2014

^ Maybe there are LEGO Insider Trading laws? Wouldn't want to get busted. One might end up in the LEGO Police Station in the same cell as a sledgehammer welding female minifig!

Brickarmor · October 2014

Town Hall with ship date of 10/20 on [email protected] US.

stevemack · October 2014

#10221 Call to check availability on UK [email protected], just managed to order 2 over the phone for delivery next week (weird as the website was giving dates in december last week when it was in stock on the website), they also informed me that it's still in production until the end of the year but beyond that they aren't sure if it will be available after new year!

CCC · October 2014

cheshirecat said:
Its a true mid life crisis if its got just two wheels.

One of my mates owns seven bicycles, I think he is going through the same thing. But in a more British / Yorkshire way.

atxlee · October 2014

Brickarmor said:
Town Hall with ship date of 10/20 on [email protected] US.

Just ordered 1 set for my personal collection. Got a scare from its abrupt OOS/retirement situation!

LeonC · October 2014

CCC said:

cheshirecat said:
Its a true mid life crisis if its got just two wheels.
One of my mates owns seven bicycles, I think he is going through the same thing. But in a more British / Yorkshire way.

Something like this?

madforLEGO · October 2014

vasp said:

madforLEGO said:

lulwut said:
Hard to believe we're no longer seeing the cutthroat price slashing seen two years ago on big sets: $120 Town Halls, $280 Death Stars, $260 SSDs. WoW!

In the US, there are no more discounts on DS, TH, or other 'exclusive' sets. So if you want one you are likely paying retail for em. The best you can likely do is get them with 2x VIP points when LEGO is running one of those promotions to get something back.
Plus pretty sure TH is still at the store by me, though that was on Saturday, not sure if they are still hanging around.

Also interestingly enough, the #31012 Family house is back to Sold out again.. Wonder if this is only due to low stocks of the set though as I think it has not been out that long.
#31012 is done. The only place available currently is tru. Not sure how long it will last there.

#3185 is done at tru also. May be sporadic stock in store. That's it.

Where is the source for #31012 is 'done'? Because it is a bit of a surprise if this is the case, the set has only been out for about 1 year.

vasp · October 2014

Been on sold out status for a while at [email protected] usa

TXLegoguy · October 2014

The 5771 Hillside House was only available about a year and a half. So it's possible the 31012 is on its way out.

TXLegoguy · October 2014

Sorry posted twice

SuperTramp · October 2014

...

stevemack said:
#10221 Call to check availability on UK [email protected], just managed to order 2 over the phone for delivery next week (weird as the website was giving dates in december last week when it was in stock on the website), they also informed me that it's still in production until the end of the year but beyond that they aren't sure if it will be available after new year!

Strange, after you posted it changed to December and now it's sold out again.

CCC · October 2014

LeonC said:

CCC said:

cheshirecat said:
Its a true mid life crisis if its got just two wheels.
One of my mates owns seven bicycles, I think he is going through the same thing. But in a more British / Yorkshire way.
Something like this?

Only worth probably 100x that each. He has over £10K worth of bikes. I'd say I'm shocked, but he is probably on a bike forum right now saying his mate has over £10K worth of lego. :-)

SuperTramp · October 2014

Are they collectors items like the old school bmx's' or does he actually use them?

madforLEGO · October 2014

vasp said:
Been on sold out status for a while at [email protected] usa

GE was sold out for about 30 days and then came back about a year ago and even this year I think it was sold out for about as long as well.
So while it is entirely possible, I'm not so sure it is EOL.

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

rocao said:
As a reminder, we have an 'Off Topic' category for discussions that don't pertain to LEGO, i.e. 'Predictions on what cars we would buy if we were in a mid-life crisis and their total cost of ownership'

Boo! I'll bet you're loads of fun at parties too. :)

madforLEGO · October 2014

LegoFanTexas said:

rocao said:
As a reminder, we have an 'Off Topic' category for discussions that don't pertain to LEGO, i.e. 'Predictions on what cars we would buy if we were in a mid-life crisis and their total cost of ownership'
Boo! I'll bet you're loads of fun at parties too. :)

It was a reminder, not a decree.
Never mind that while a cute little distraction it was getting a bit annoying.

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

madforLEGO said:
It was a reminder, not a decree.
Never mind that while a cute little distraction it was getting a bit annoying.

:) My reply was meant to be light hearted... I got the message... :)

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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