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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value
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Comments
brickset.com/sets/9493-1/X-wing-Starfighter
When do you think this 2012 set will retire, and what are your thoughts on the value of this X-wing Star Wars set? Apparently the Jek Porkins minifig is exclusive to it. Ooh and with regard to the value of it when in MISB condition (as you find the article on the shelves in stores).
And a second question, for those who buy and sell international, is the resellers market in Europe much different from the one in the UsA? (I am from the Netherlands)
I will say, based on experience, SW is a bad investment unless the set is something unique and or expensive (and usually only if both conditions are met), otherwise figure 2 things with SW:
-Every Tom Dick and Harry will have piles of sets 20 high in their closets of any and every SW set hoping to make their millions, and then you have those who stock a couple away to sell later, which adds up to a lot available after they are gone from LEGO. Check out 9516 as an example.
-LEGO constantly redo's sets, and most of the earlier versions of the sets then lose their aftermarket value or unless gotten on a godd sale (which does not really happen as much as it used to), at at near what they sold new for. See #6212 on eBay as an example.
Selling overseas to me is a headache. It was less of one with eBay had its global shipping program (GSP) (which also had a decent protection system built in for seller and buyer), but now LEGO has issued their next decree that those (at least in the US) cannot use GSP with new LEGO sets purchases. Now I will not sell any new sets overseas. Used sets, which I have a majority off, I will likely still over though.
Who says you can't afford a Ferrari? This one is $50K and would be a ton of fun... It is my son's favorite color to boot! :)
Hmm... :)
This one is even nicer at $47K, a 1995 F355 Spider... looks nice, but it would need to be checked out by a proper mechanic first of course :)
I always thought it was quite a good set, but the greebling needed a greater variety of elements to add some interest to it. However, it's big and OT, so I'd guess that it will be doing quite well in a couple of years (unless they re-issue the ISD).
Thanks for providing an answer, even though as you say, am likely to get a different answer on these questions from every and each individual you would ask.
Earlier today I spent some time, actually quite a lot of time, reading past pages on this thread, and I came across what you just mentioned as well, the GSP (global shipping programm). I think it was @doriansdad who mentioned it. And how TLG might have a hand in forcing ebay to go along with that, if I got the gist of it correct. Which paradoxically would result in restricting sales to international buyers, due to preventing auctions to be shown in other countries, as Lego items on sale through ebay search-engine 'optimization' filters what items listed for sale will be shown depending on your location, which in conjunction with GSP should prevent parallel-import/export, as a measure to counter people taking advantage of regional price difference. Which btw I think totally sucks! If this is indeed true, even though I hardly ever buy stuff on Ebay, and when I do, it is usually from sellers within the EU, because import taxes can make a big difference and bump up the price significantly. But nonetheless, if I was to sell the odd set via Ebay, and it so happens that someone from a country far away from on some other continent wants to buy it from me, I don't appreciate some company preventing the seller and buyer from doing the deal, and shipping it off to the new owner. How totalitarian! The dude is not amused.
Anyway with regard to that X-wing set, it will be on special offer at a particular shop in The Netherlands for under €40. So I thought why not scoop up one or two extra, open up Ebay or Bricklink account and sell the extra copies now or when it EOLs at or a little under retail price and end up with the one set I want to buy for my self for free or almost for free. That way I am happy, and perhaps some other people too, since that X-wing at [email protected] in NL is €74,99. However in both Belgium and Germany at [email protected] that set is €5 cheaper, yet somehow all the ebay ads that pop-up here on Brickset from mostly German seller sell (though 'offer' it is more appropriate) it for in between €70 and €80, and that does not include shipment/postal fees.
@Farmer_John
to my knowledge a set is and will always be 'new', as opposed to 'second hand' as long as it is in MISB (mint in sealed box) even if the box is not entirely pristine due to some shelf-wear, resulting in some scratches, or a sticker such as a price-tag, regardless of whether or not a particular set has gone EOL, meaning TLG has stopped producing and selling it themselves. With regard to MISB, I suppose some people won't consider a set to be in mint condition when the box is scratched, has price-tags on it, or worse, some clumsy employee at the counter, after asking if it is a present, and when you want it gift-wrapped, does not only remove the price-tag but along with it tears a piece of the glossy finished print on the exterior off the box as well. Maybe I should apply a different term other then MISB, however as long as the set is still in its original packaging, the bricks packaged in their air tight plastic bags, and the instructions hopefully in good order as well, without the seals on the box broken, the box being trampled, or holes in the box, or water damage etc.; the set is 'new' in my book. On German Ebay sites they usually state OVP, which means 'originalverpakkung' (in original packaging).
ps.
To the resellers here, is Ebay still the preferred venue for selling your surplus sets, or do you also sell via other sites? And how about bricklink? I have not bought anything via Bricklink for quite some time, only bought some extra minifigs and other bricks there a couple of times, but saw some sellers also have new sets on offer there.
I'm sure sellers will test eBay by cracking the box open, and leaving the plastic part bags sealed, to say it is 'used' but I'm guessing that will raise other issues, or still count as new. Yeah, if you get them for an insane price then it may be worth it. Remember that eBay and BL take percentages, when you sell via eBay/paypal you are giving them about 15-20% of the price (at least in the US), BL is 3% I think but paypal will also take about 3%(if in US) , but less of a market in relation to eBay.
That being said, buying such a car is not the same as owning it, and it can get expensive from what I've read...
A new Stingray Corvette would be easier and cheaper to actually own and maintain (in that, it wouldn't really have any MX costs, unlike a 1995 Ferrari), and frankly easier to live with, but it just screams "midlife crisis". Maybe I'm ok with that, but since my wife and I are... well, at that age... it does scream it. :)
I never had a fun car when I was in my 20s, went right to a truck when I was 19 and never looked back. The irony is that my current truck has far more power and would beat most sports cars from my 20s in a 0-60 race, but it just isn't the same thing. :)
For some fun reading...
http://www.edmunds.com/kia/sedona/2007/comparison-test.html
Edmunds bought a 1984 Ferrari 308 GTSi (the car from Magnum, P.I.) and put it into their test fleet to see what owning such a car might involve. They also raced it against a Kia Sedona minivan. Nuts, but fun...
I hope for you if you ever decide to buy a car such as that yellow convertible, you're not wearing a toupee.
Also, unless you inherited your wealth or are a successful football player or DJ earning millions of Euro's each year etc., chances are you can often only afford a car such as a Ferrari when you are a mid-lifer (40+) or beyond that. I hardly ever see young people driving such cars.
I think this is a really beautiful car; for real as well as its recreation in Lego:
https://ideas.lego.com/projects/77779
And if I had the money, or will ever obtain the ample sum needed for such expenditure in the future, to maintain such a classic C3, C2 or a 1960 C1 corvette, or an old Ferrari or some other classic, I could care less if people would think: 'ooh look at him, total midlife crisis!' But then again I am not (yet) a mid-lifer.
Thanks again for the info, I had a look around on Bricklink, and Ebay, and came to the conclusion that unless you can stack up a set such as the haunted house, you might have a tough time unloading that X-wing set I mentioned for a fair price (both good for me selling them and interesting for anyone wanting to buy one), and I am not really convinced it is worth all the hustle, although part of me thinks maybe I should just give it a go, open up some seller account to see what will happen with one or two extra sets, even if it means I will only make just a couple of Euro on that extra set (obviously I have not yet made up mind). There is just one more thing, if you want to sell Lego, chances are you won't sell anything if you have just one set on offer. Plus potential customers will also be looking for positive feedback stats.
Do you sell primarily through Ebay or also via BL?
I tend to favour bricklink over Ebay, yet the latter draws much more traffic, visitors, and buyers. I wonder which venue is more profitable? Bricklink seems more of an in-crowd Lego enthusiast place, every time I bought some parts/elements there I only had good experiences.
I don't think a lot of Lego enthusiasts even know about BL, and are nervous about purchasing from them if they did. It took me awhile to "get into BL," but now I purchase more from them than from eBay.
Regarding the Ferrari vs Corvette thing a few posts up: For me, it'd be a new or late model Corvette (most likely a '10 to '13 Grand Sport), no question. Exponentially cheaper and less frequent maintenance than any Ferrari, faster than many Ferrari's, plus great gas mileage for a sports car. I had an '04 with the Z51 package until about two years ago (sold due to baby), and I miss it. As soon as our little guy is old enough to ride with a small (or no) car seat about five years down the road, I will probably be buying a new one (if I can wait that long).
We are mid-lifers now, and I could afford it... but of course I now have the same problem I did in my 20s when I wanted a Mustang... "It isn't practical". :) I also have 3 kids, so I have a million and one things to spend money on them for.
At the end of the day, it is #FirstWorldProblems so I guess I'll go back and play with LEGO some more. :)
It's going to be a cheap year next year I think, the next set I buy (apart from the holiday sets) will be Slave I UCS. Thanks to the lacklustre early 2015 wave, I don't think TLG will be getting much of my money for the forseeable.
You don't need to be a famous superstar to own a Ferrari. The yellow one that @LegoFanTexas posted is less than my current BMW.
The other downsize to the E63 is it doesn't scream for attention. Lets be honest, if I buy such a car, one of the reasons is that when I go pickup the kids from school, I become the coolest dad there. And that just doesn't happen in a E63, but it does happen in a new Stingray Corvette (or Ferrari).
The other day, my wife and I were leaving the mall from some shopping and someone passed us driving a yellow Lamborghini Gallardo. He wasn't being crazy, but he did put the hammer down leaving the stop light and that 550hp V10 engine just makes a noise that is all unique... And for some reason, I don't mind that he does it, because in that car, you're SUPPOSED TO DO IT. :)
Nothing worse than someone who owns a 550hp super car and never really puts the pedal down. Go run it and make it live... safely of course, he never got very fast before letting it off.
Anyway rock on, send PMs or whatever as I still love to read the boards. I am sure we will all be downing squishees in 2015 together ;)
The C7 Z06 is a beast of a car. 0-60 in 2.95 seconds (hard top model, auto). I'd love one down the road, but my significant other might frown upon a $80k-$100k Corvette purchase. I'll probably have to settle for a used C6 GS at less than half that price, but might opt for a C7 with Z51. I'd like a C6 Z06, but want an auto since it will likely be my daily driver. That pretty much leaves the GS. If you can swing it with no difficulty, the C7 Z06 looks awesome! Cool, see you back in about a week!
[email protected] has a limit of 2.
both target and wm show in stock.
Has the limit on this always been 2 at [email protected] Looks like it hasn't really sold very well
Town Hall on amazon. Limit 2
If my guess is correct I'll take another guess that LEGO didn't make many. Was it popular? I don't know. That may be somewhat moot if the supply was always limited and may cause to shoot up in price when retired. Personally I only got 1 set, none for resell. I prefer more generic sets that have a wider range of buyers. Ones that appeal to all ages, etc. regardless of the buyer's interest in super heroes, sci-fi, fantasy, etc.
btw, amazon is out of town hall. Did not last long
I was surprised to see at the Lego stall at the STEAM show a single #10229 WV cottage - I thought that had gone ages ago.