Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

edgarallanpoe1422 · October 2014

Do you still get double VIP on sets ordered within but delivered outside the double VIP promotional window?

FatMatt · October 2014

^Yes, you will get double VIP as long as it was purchased during the promotion. If they don't show up, call in and they will fix it.

littlepuppi · October 2014

It looks like a lot of sets could vanish soon!

pharmjod · October 2014

@doriansdad‌ thanks!

Farmer_John · October 2014

Pitfall69 said:
It is interesting. I don't think the Town Hall has sold as well as the other modulars.

Funny...I had the same thought. I remember the hoopla when the TH was released, but it died down pretty quickly.

On a related note, I think the TH was the last set I purchased as an exclusive that was discounted. Sigh!

Okay, I'm back now from nostalgic land...

Farmer_John · October 2014

Shpadoinkle said:
This is a real bummer. I was waiting to order two things with double VIP this year: The Batman Tumbler for me and the TH for my wife. I was on a business trip for the last four days and had no chance to order anything.

You'll probably be able to get your gift if you're within range of a Lego store since the Tumbler appears to be an in-store exclusive. Your wife's gift may be another matter. Might I suggest bluenile's website?

BrickDancer · October 2014

^Blue Nile is nice! Great quality trinkets at decent prices. My go to source for the past 2 V-Days and the Missy was very happy with the pieces.

FollowsClosely · October 2014

Interesting, shop.lego.com in the us is down to 2 modulars in stock.

graphite · October 2014

^ 2x VIP will do that.

kooz · October 2014

Any guess on when Arkham Asylum goes EOL?

madforLEGO · October 2014

binaryeye said:

Pitfall69 said:
I wonder if the Town Hall is just sold out because of the Double VIP promotion.
When I checked the site earlier this morning (about 2.5 hours ago), it was out of stock with an expected ship date. That it's now simply sold out must mean something.

GE is also 'sold out' again
Only when Town Hall is gone gone from the site or listed as 'retired product' will I believe it is gone. My guess is it is due to stock shortages and not gone yet. Considering GE went from available to back order to sold out to back order to sold out to back order to sold out and now available again, only to also be sold out again with a smattering of 'call for product availability' , I need more than it went to sold out to say it is gone for good

kooz said:
Any guess on when Arkham Asylum goes EOL?

Could be this Winter. I cannot imagine it is wildly popular for that price point either. and has been out for about 2 year now if I am not mistaken

Farmer_John · October 2014

FollowsClosely said:
Interesting, shop.lego.com in the us is down to 2 modulars in stock.

Wow! I'm glad I grabbed a Parisian Restaurant yesterday...it may be the next one gone at this rate.

So maybe I'm behind the times, but are they releasing another modular this year? Seems like they are starting to thin out a bit.

madforLEGO · October 2014

What is a bit surprising is that the #10223 Joust set is still around.

dougts · October 2014

my new theory on "sold out" vs "backordered, expected ship..." is this:

"Backordered w/ ship date" - current inventory is sold out, but there is more product somewhere in the supply chain from "scheduled into a factory production slot" to "en route to warehouse"

"Sold Out" - current inventory is sold out, and there is currently nothing anywhere in the supply chain. the item may eventually be scheduled for another factory production slot, or it may not. additionally/alternatively, more may become available through returns/cancellation and or uncovering or previously lost/misplaced stock.

I have nothing to back this up, it's just a theory

nkx1 · October 2014

^So "sold out" could mean pretty much anything lol.

I hope Town Hall isn't permanently sold out (however unlikely). I think Town Hall might be one of those sets that people look back and say, "wow, that's actually a pretty cool set. Bummer I missed it. Now I'll have to pay $400 on ebay!"

Farmer_John · October 2014

^A sellout of the TH would definitely be a surprise. I would expect the price to rise pretty rapidly if that's truly the case...

luckie_reubs · October 2014

kooz said:
Any guess on when Arkham Asylum goes EOL?

I feel like I'm really gambling by NOT picking that one up yet, but that's a lot of money for that set, even for that many minifigs. I don't expect to be able to display it, and I know my boy would just disassemble it immediately and put it in his part box (good on him; that's what Lego is for!).

I want that set a lot, but at $160 I just can't pull the trigger.

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

I built TH awhile ago... it was one of the most boring builds in awhile...

Pet Shop, by comparison, was tons better... I still haven't built PC or PR because of TH, it was the last one I built...

I do have PC and PR sitting in the closet, I'll probably build them around Christmas time, once the busy shipping season is over.

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

Farmer_John said:
^A sellout of the TH would definitely be a surprise. I would expect the price to rise pretty rapidly if that's truly the case...

Yep... I don't have any put aside, I'm expecting it around for another year or two... FB and DS really burned me on that... :)

doriansdad · October 2014

If you don't think TLG will be making anymore of these for the USA it is back instock on [email protected] for 10/18/14 shipping.

Personally I think there will be at least a few more production runs over the next 2 years but if you must have them now here is your chance.

doriansdad · October 2014

Just a heads up to the folks who sell on ebay and also use the GSP for their sets. You may have noticed (or not) sets listed after 9/24 are no longer eligible to be shipped using the GSP. You can choose the GSP option when you list but when you go to the published auction it will state you only ship to the USA unless you also have alternative shipping chosen in which case you can ship directly overseas on your own outside of the GSP.

I called this morning thinking this was the usual ebay glitch but the Utah rep stated LEGO requested that new sets not be sold through the GSP on the USA site claiming it is a copyright violation to do so.

Now there are ways to get around it so you can get the listing to show with GSP as an option (listing in the wrong category etc) but you risk getting permanently banned by ebay so I would not attempt it unless you know how to get around the ebay/paypal bans.

Just be careful shipping on your own outside of GSP on ebay as now if your buyer claims SNAD you as the seller have to pay return shipping back to the USA along with any customs fees/import taxes. If you don't pay then ebay will refund the buyer and let them keep the item. They will then take that money out of your paypal or send you to collections if the funds are not available. Weigh the risks and adjust prices accordingly to absorb those losses.

cloaked7 · October 2014

^ Showing my ignorance. :-) What is 'GSP'? Imagine that. I just now got an email (shown below) from eBay about GSP. :-) It's Global Shipping Program.
= = = = = = =
Last week we sent an email reminder about your GSP-eligible listings. It still looks like you have a number of listings that would be a great fit for the Global Shipping Program but are not currently enabled for international sales. This means you're missing out on millions of potential buyers.

This is your final reminder that in October, we will automatically enable all of your GSP-eligible listings. This will help make it easier for buyers in up to 64 countries to purchase your items.

International sale, US shipping

With the Global Shipping Program, you simply ship to a US shipping center where international shipping and customs clearance are handled for you.

No action is needed to take advantage of this global selling opportunity; simply leave your settings as they are now. Eligible items are identified automatically, free of charge. However if you would like your GSP-eligible items to be excluded from the Program simply click here by October 3, 2014.

doriansdad · October 2014

Sorry should have stated it is for the Global Shipping Program.

ColoradoBricks · October 2014

I have listed sets last night with GSP and "No alternative international shipping" without problem.
However that might explain why a frequent buyer of my store from Malaysia is telling me that he can't bid on my auctions anymore "Seller does not provide shipping to your country"...

BrickDancer · October 2014

Wow Lego is going extreme now and blocking off the outside avenues for sellers/buyers. They are being so heavy handed that I don't know what to think about them anymore. I'm becoming quite jaded with the company as of late.

doriansdad · October 2014

Colorado take a look at your listing and you will see it says ship to USA only (look at the options under the shipping tab). I am guessing quite a few sellers who are enrolled in GSP and sell in the lego sets category are assuming their items can be purchased overseas thru GSP. Not any longer :(

Pitfall69 · October 2014

Define "new"? Is this just sets that are currently in production or new in sealed box Lego? What if you sell just Minifigures or sets without the Minifigures from sets that are currently in production?

I can understand why Lego is doing this, but why punish the casual seller on Ebay?

ColoradoBricks · October 2014

@doriansdad, yes... I set the category on small set to "Building Toys->Other" and it looks good now.. is that really the wrong category .. (not as bad a all the China fake listed under LEGO)

LegoFanTexas · October 2014

BrickDancer said:
Wow Lego is going extreme now and blocking off the outside avenues for sellers/buyers. They are being so heavy handed that I don't know what to think about them anymore. I'm becoming quite jaded with the company as of late.

Yep, what a great way to get too big for ones britches...

TLG would have killed for their current business 10 years ago, now that they have it, they don't think they need their die hard fans anymore...

This isn't new, many companies from long before TLG have been down this road. Humans suck at history. :)

----------------

Side note, this has nothing to do with supporting big resellers, I actually do understand the business reasons why TLG doesn't want them messing with supply levels.

The problem is the law of unintended consequences. These types of things tend to step on the fans as well as the resellers (such as [email protected] bans and limits).

Frankly I think the way Amazon handles it is perfect. You can buy 2 of any set, once per week, and then the limit resets. That gives everyone a chance to buy when a sale or deal happens, but doesn't limit you lifetime.

There is the soft touch approach, then there is the hammer and stick approach... They each have their uses, but the hammer and stick tend to have a wide area of effect...

doriansdad · October 2014

If it is a set then yes it is the wrong category. You will have to determine the risks on your own. Listing in "other" or "technic" will allow the item to be ordered through GSP. I got no information from the rep on when or if Kentucky will stop freighting the miscategorized sets overseas. Obviously you will get knocked down in "best match" when trying to sell a set in "other" or "technic" etc. If you don't know how to get around ebay/paypal perma bans I personally would not risk it as those bans are decided by bots and are irreversible.

Pitfall it is for any item listed in the lego "sets" category on ebay. GSP ships via freight and LEGO is stating it is a violation of trade law for other countries to import them. This only started last week so it is going to take some brave sellers to see what lines are drawn by the bots.

Pitfall69 · October 2014

^Wow. Just wow.

dougts · October 2014

wow. guess i shouldn't be surprised.

ColoradoBricks · October 2014

What is confusing me is why is it banned via GSP but allowed if shipped directly, law should apply to both...
It started a few days ago but now when creating a label, we are being asked if the package contains live poultry, will they ask if we ship LEGO next ? :)

binaryeye · October 2014

It seems LEGO's recent policy changes are an attempt to control third-party sales of current sets, specifically to support regional price differences. While this affects third-party sales of retired sets, I don't think that is their primary goal. It's no coincidence that the ban of discounts on exclusives apparently applies only to the US, where sets are cheap relative to other countries. I'm sure the loss of incentives for US credit cards is due to this, as well.

LegoFanTexas said:
This isn't new, many companies from long before TLG have been down this road. Humans suck at history. :)

Humans are very good at recording history. But we're also very good at thinking we're better than history.

doriansdad · October 2014

Backorders of HHs all just got filled on amazon. If you had any hanging on they are probably filled as well so be sure to check. They might have excess to sell so check their site periodically.

Pacific493 · October 2014

BrickDancer said:
Wow Lego is going extreme now and blocking off the outside avenues for sellers/buyers. They are being so heavy handed that I don't know what to think about them anymore. I'm becoming quite jaded with the company as of late.

This request by TLG may actually give greater insight into what has been driving their campaign against resellers over the last year. I know that there are some imbalances between what TLG charges in the U.S. and what it charges overseas, but I've never looked to see how great they are in nominal terms. If the spread between the cost here and the cost in other parts of the world was large enough, it would create cross-border retail arbitrage opportunities. Something like the GSP would greatly increase such opportunities by reducing the transaction cost of overseas sales and increasing the potential margin that could be realized by such a strategy. I had long assumed that TLG was targeting resellers to protect its supply chain, but hadn't thought that this was about attacking cross-border arbitrage. Maybe it's not or maybe this was obvious to others, but it's interesting to see TLG take an aggressive step like this.

dougts · October 2014

ColoradoBricks said:
What is confusing me is why is it banned via GSP but allowed if shipped directly, law should apply to both...
It started a few days ago but now when creating a label, we are being asked if the package contains live poultry, will they ask if we ship LEGO next ? :)

It's not being done based on law, it's being done by pressuring eBay to make a policy distinction

madforLEGO · October 2014

doriansdad said:
If it is a set then yes it is the wrong category. You will have to determine the risks on your own. Listing in "other" or "technic" will allow the item to be ordered through GSP. I got no information from the rep on when or if Kentucky will stop freighting the miscategorized sets overseas. Obviously you will get knocked down in "best match" when trying to sell a set in "other" or "technic" etc. If you don't know how to get around ebay/paypal perma bans I personally would not risk it as those bans are decided by bots and are irreversible.

Pitfall it is for any item listed in the lego "sets" category on ebay. GSP ships via freight and LEGO is stating it is a violation of trade law for other countries to import them. This only started last week so it is going to take some brave sellers to see what lines are drawn by the bots.

That also explains a bit why I see only 'sets' being a category instead of sets -town or sets -train on eBay anymore.

dougts · October 2014

doriansdad said:
GSP ships via freight and LEGO is stating it is a violation of trade law for other countries to import them. This only started last week so it is going to take some brave sellers to see what lines are drawn by the bots.

so is their position that because these GSP shipments are all being bundled into one much bigger freight delivery, that somehow that bumps up the package to the trade/import category, or are they saying that even a single set shipped from point A to point B would be a violation?

cheshirecat · October 2014

@dougts isn't the issue that ebay effectively ship them in bulk therefore allowing it as a large multinational to become a legal target, where as individual sellers aren't worth going after. Sure it's about lego looking after its intrenational sales, but the GSP made it much easier to do so. EBay will be forced to show that it has taken all reasonable steps to close any loopholes too, so expect those to close quickly.

From legos point of view it makes complete sense and if it's occurring alongside lego helping from their side (haven't recent AUS prices been a bit fairer, ignoring any recent currency fluctuations) then it seems fair enough. Presumably the GSP was more used by bigger resellers than the hobbiest?

Farmer_John · October 2014

As we all know, TLG killed discounts on their exclusive sets last year. Now my Chase CC no longer provides additional points for purchasing Lego sets from [email protected] I wonder if fingerprinting and DNA samples are next?

I hate to believe it, but the comment above about TLG getting too big for their britches has credence. Yes...I understand that they can do what they want...whatever. But can anyone think of another retailer that does these sorts of things (aside from Apple, who is also too big for their britches)? I mean, we're talking toys here...

BrickDancer · October 2014

Thought about that all day and all I could come up with is Apple, Walmart, ebay and Ferrari.

prevere · October 2014

All the TRU coupons Ive seen lately now exclude Lego. This fall, maybe since August, it seems like there's been a new level of countermeasures launched against the secondary market.

pharmjod · October 2014

It is probably basic economics for TRU. To them LEGO probably sells itself well enough with out discounts, hence the ability to exclude it. We will see how well that holds in a years time with no more discounts. May be a great move on their part, may not.

BrickDancer · October 2014

Same for Barnes, recently they added 'Excludes Lego' to all their coupons. I do wonder if that is seller or manufacturer inspired?

flyingpig · October 2014

Lego cashback is alive and... well not quite 5% but still better than nothing.

cloaked7 · October 2014

LEGO 'cashback'. You mean LEGO VIP? Would really be sad (and not just from the money aspect) if that went away. I don't think it will, but with LEGO squeezing every penny out of every dollar, who knows?

Time will tell, but I think the no discount policies, etc. will hurt LEGO. I don't see it being permanent. That business tactic just doesn't go over well with retailers or customers.

vasp · October 2014

TRU usa has T1 in stock. Looks like Plenty

Farmer_John · October 2014

BrickDancer said:
Thought about that all day and all I could come up with is Apple, Walmart, ebay and Ferrari.

My CC does provide cashback on Wal-Mart, I don't consider eBay as a retailer, I already mentioned Apple, and who can afford a Ferrari (even with cashback). Perhaps college and professional sports teams. In fact, Lego is starting act alot like a sports team and their approach to merchandising; fifty dollars for a cheap jersey, etc...

Farmer_John · October 2014

cloaked7 said:
Time will tell, but I think the no discount policies, etc. will hurt LEGO. I don't see it being permanent. That business tactic just doesn't go over well with retailers or customers.

The retailers are driven by the customers, so if customers start to balk then the retailers will just pull Lego's product off the shelf. Just my opinion, but I think CMFs wll be dead soon at $4 plus tax for 5 parts. The discounts on exclusives are gone, so that has to hurt sales of the high priced sets. So that leaves the middle price range, and as long as Amazon, Wal-Mart, Target, etc. can discount those they will continue to sell.

It's really sad, but I only saw one customer in the Lego store during my last visit. Maybe the B&M stores are consider by Lego to be loss-leaders, but that sounds like an expensive approach to selling Lego sets.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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