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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    piratemania7 said:

    I think when it says: "Retired Product" it's safe to say the lid has been sealed shut, the final nail in the coffin has been hammered, so on and so forth.

    ^ This... times two...

    Sold out, out of stock, backordered... all more or less mean the same thing and are open to points of view...

    There isn't much gray area in "retired product". It means what it says... :)

    (or it should, nothing stops TLG from making more anyway!)
    TXLegoguy
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    Speaking of which, GE is back as in stock at [email protected] US, with no back order. Hopefully this does not mean it is around for another year.
    My guess is it is still gone, but apparently the resellers have had their fill.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    ^Maybe TLG created a special position that is responsible for tormenting resellers. If so, they deserve a raise.
    LegoFanTexasObserverprevere
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,331
    ^ did I not mention my new job?
    LegoFanTexasLobotprevereSirKevbagsLostInTranslation
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    @cheshirecat - I figured it was you...
  • DraugDraug Member Posts: 34
    GE also back in stock in Canada. It's the Haunted House I want back, not the GE!!!
    TXLegoguyjuggles7chuckpRainstorm26
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    HH is done. A few reseller orders got cancelled yestreday by [email protected] USA so it was briefly available. This is the last run for GE in the USA which has been very heavily stocked by resellers already. You will want to give 10211 a good 5 years to appreciate to anything worthwile. It is even more stocked than FB.

    HH is a different story, heavily understocked, short run of 2 years and sand green - a gift for resellers who did get stock....it will gravitate to $450 very quickly.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    The Haunted House was a little over priced at RRP. It should have been $150-160 originally. But none of that matters now as it will appreciate well due to it's short run.
  • TXLegoguyTXLegoguy Member Posts: 125
    iluvmyelement said:

    My order for HH was cancelled this morning. :-( It had been backordered since the first week of September.

    My order for the HH was just cancelled too. I ordered in the beginning of Sept also. Sounds like the TLG is not doing a good job with that.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    I just received a shipping notice for the Haunted House I ordered in early September. Dunno how they are determining who gets one. I'll have to look back and see when I specifically placed the order.
    Farmer_John
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Got my 2. Another who got his. And another who was canceled.

    I think they do it like the Wheel of Fish.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KezvwARhBIc
    Bumblepantsred5lordzarakgraphitericecake
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,624
    ^love that movie!
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 88
    Is the grand emporium really that overstocked by resellers?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,329
    ^ No. It will do just fine.
  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    I submit that it is impossible to overstock a modular.. the appetite post EOL will be insatiable.
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    The exact same thing was said about Fire Brigade....everyone who wanted one has one, resellers have buildings full of them, it's been out too long. I don't buy anymore for investment purposes but Fire Brigade seems to be selling for close to $300 on ebay. Looks like it's doing fine to me. I'm sure Grand Emporium will benefit the same. It might not climb as quickly because it isn't a popular fire station but it's still a nice addition in the modular line (which also lends itself to multiple copies).
    FollowsClosely
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Chang405 said:

    Is the grand emporium really that overstocked by resellers?

    I would have thought the Fire Brigade was overstocked, and it appears to be doing fine. I'm sure there will be strong demand for the GE post-EOL too.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited September 2014
    madforLEGO said:

    Sold out typically means gone. LEGO does not really seem to care about how their website performs or looks as it appears to be the same as it was 10 years ago.

    Ten years ago: http://web.archive.org/web/20041022065242/http://shop.lego.com/leaf.asp?cn=4&d=5&t=3

    Today: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Star-Wars-ByTheme

    Functionality-wise, they've introduced the ability to filter, sort, and preview; a rating system; VIP point and promotion system; inventory count with backorder fulfillment. The change to a modern look is obvious.

    Now, if you were talking about Bricklink, you'd be spot on: http://web.archive.org/web/20031009214154/http://www.bricklink.com/
    jadeireneLegoKipMathBuilder
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited September 2014
    For investors here, does anyone look back and think they should have heavily invested in a very few select sets over the past few years and forgone most or all other sets you might have invested in? Perhaps a dumb question...

    I'm just a hobby-level reseller, but I was just thinking back to when I first started investing (end of 2011). Instead of investing $10k or so in a very wide spectrum of themes/sets, I should have just gone with my gut instinct and bought $10k in one or two sets, one being #4195 QAR. PotC is such a universally-desirable theme, and the ship is great-looking. This would have made things so much simpler (for instance, the time needed to list the sets), and would have netted a significantly higher profit (for me). If I waited until now to start selling, #4195 can be pretty easily sold for $350 or so. After fees/shipping, that's an easy $180+ profit per sale, assuming the sets were purchased at $100 each (which was very easily done).

    Of course, there are other themes/sets that have probably done better, such as Harry Potter, etc. But in my mind, these sets weren't as obvious a win as the QAR (or even Black Pearl), given the fan base and appearance of the PotC sets.

    I'm thinking the "all your eggs in one basket" might be my approach going forward: only investing (heavily) in one or two very select sets every couple of years that I think are an obvious win. HH comes to mind, although I've missed out on it because I procrastinated. The next one might be Palace Cinema.

    Contrary to typical investing, I think the "all your eggs in one basket" approach could be a winning strategy for Lego, if one is extraordinarily discerning in set selection.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    Although you correctly describe that approach as putting "all your eggs in one basket" you only mention the downside as missing out on even better performers. Though it's the other side of the same coin, the real danger here is the greater risk of ruin: if your single pick turns out to be a terrible one, just as a catastrophic event might happen to your single basket.

    For instance, #10193 Medieval Market Village possesses a lot of characteristics similar to past strong performers and many people were certain it would do well. It still may, But presently -- a year and a half into retirement -- you'd be netting $30 or less per set.
    LegoFanTexasPitfall69dougtsprevereTechnicNickMathBuilder
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Sadly I think there are now too many people doing the reseller thing and hence it's going to take a lot lot longer to get returns on certain/many items!
    pharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^This is certainly true. As @rocao‌ mentioned, the Medieval Market Village isn't doing was was expected in the aftermarket. An apparent flop. You would have been wiser to invest in the final Hogwarts Castle rather than Diagon Alley. The returns on Hogwarts Castle are massive.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^This is certainly true. As @rocao‌ mentioned, the Medieval Market Village isn't doing was was expected in the aftermarket. An apparent flop. You would have been wiser to invest in the final Hogwarts Castle rather than Diagon Alley. The returns on Hogwarts Castle are massive.

    From my point of view in the UK I flipped all my MMV for 2 x RRP, so its been a success, anything 2 x RRP is good enough for me, so above this is obviously a bonus. Hogwarts Castle is off the charts yes, so is not the norm. It's interesting how the US and UK/European market differ., so many factors to consider.
    Pitfall69
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Great points rocao. Although I did buy a few #10193 (I think I only have one left), it certainly would have never been my all-in set. It's a castle-type theme (which seem to underperform versus many other themes), and it just doesn't have that "it" factor, at least to me. Nonetheless, I certainly do see your point.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    ^I see it as two different levels of resellers. There are those that do it as a business and rely on the revenue to sustain their existence (at least to some degree). Then there are others that pick up an additional few sets here and there as they are on sale to support their hobby or just make a little extra cash. I am definitely not the former and to this point in time am not much of the latter either. However, I really do enjoy hearing the perspectives, anecdotes, and wisdom of those that do take it more seriously because it provides me with insight into what/which sets I want to purchase multiple copies of. It also gives me valuable information on how to sell those sets when I do sell. If I am only going to pick up an extra set or two to eventually resell, I want those sets to count!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I don't know exactly why MMV isn't doing well in the US, but my guess is it because of the lack of a current castle theme.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    ^I agree...Even my wife who isn't a huge LEGO buff really likes the MMV. It had a lot of pieces at a great price point. I also think it's a great fit with the LOTR and Hobbit sets. So many positives...I guess time will tell.
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    I thought we all did do what you're suggesting. Loaded up on #10188...learnt a hard lesson never to do it [email protected] Big difference between investor and reseller. I can take or leave most sets now.. I just drip them in when the price is right and if the price is too good to be true then I'll put the effort in chasing them. £45 #10229 are an example of this. That's my reseller head on but I also have my investor head with some sets where I will buy less and hold longer. There is too many people working for nothing in this game now.
    There is a lot of people sat on a lot of sets that will never return a profit. Good luck to them. I'm not one of them. The worst set I'm sat on is #79111 but I only have 6 of them.
    I've had over 60 #4842 through my hands. I doubled my money immediately but that was actually the first Christmas they were out. I wasn't in a position to hold them. They came in and got shipped out within 48 hours.
    The game has changed. It's a brave man who puts all his eggs in one basket in any walk of life. The retailers have changed the game too such as team gb figures available last week at cost. I thibk it was last year #10216 was available fron a Uk supplier..think they had 900 of them. There's still winners of course but more people are backing them so they're a shorter price. Do I wish I still had my Taj Mahals and Cafe Corners? Sure I do!!!! But I cant turn the clock back so Im just happy that Ive still got my Emerald Nights and Green Grocers....that and the fact I piled in on Fire Brigades right to the end and beyond!!!
  • juggles7juggles7 Member Posts: 451
    edited September 2014
    nkx1 said:

    Contrary to typical investing, I think the "all your eggs in one basket" approach could be a winning strategy for Lego, if one is extraordinarily discerning in set selection.

    It's hard to be "discerning" given the flood of product. Don't forget TRU can come in and make the item an exclusive and Lego will continue to produce it for them, even after the item is officially retired. TRU all but ruined the aftermarket for #8038, Battle of Endor and are currently ruining the aftermarket for #6857, Batman Funhouse Escape. TRU was also carrying Monster Fighters for a while, but it didn't last long.

    Star Wars is a proven winner, but those sets are frequently reissued. When they are, the original usually (not always) takes a hit. Outside the Star Wars universe, most items can be hurt by the release of a new, similar item.

    These are 2 factors beyond your control that could play hell with your "all eggs in one basket" approach.
    Dadbrickupdatenkx1
  • juggles7juggles7 Member Posts: 451
    pcirone said:

    I submit that it is impossible to overstock a modular.. the appetite post EOL will be insatiable.

    Comments like that trouble me. Like a cab driver recommending a hot stock is usually a sign of a market top. Impossible to overstock a modular? Of course it's possible. If the number of sets stored by resellers (the supply) greatly exceeds the demand of buyers in the secondary market, prices will fall, can even fall below RRP. We might even see it with GE, if the manufacturer keeps cranking those out.

  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    Pitfall69 said:

    I don't know exactly why MMV isn't doing well in the US, but my guess is it because of the lack of a current castle theme.

    It was also out 4 years and I remember after 18 months everyone was saying this was the one to stock up on!!

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    A person can consider popularity, appeal, price per piece and many other factors in trying to determine if a set will be a great profit maker when reselling. Many of those factors are known when the set is current and can cause you to think it's easy to pick the winners. But, a couple of HUGE unknowns are how many will be made and for how long. And, how many are being bought for resell.

    I think everyone thought HH would be around for this Halloween, but I think it's caught most people by surprise by retiring now. That will probably bode well for people that have 20 in inventory. But, what if LEGO decided to keep the set current for 2-3 years? Or, even 5 more years, much like the Death Star? Those latter aspects are just too iffy for me to go whole hog into 1 or 2 sets.
    nkx1
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^"Monster Fighters" wasn't a big hit, but the Haunted House was and if I were TLG; I would think about putting out another Haunted House or Mansion.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Dad said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    I don't know exactly why MMV isn't doing well in the US, but my guess is it because of the lack of a current castle theme.

    It was also out 4 years and I remember after 18 months everyone was saying this was the one to stock up on!!

    I feel Mill Village Raid has probably been a better investment to this point. I love both sets and have my MMV proudly displayed in office.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Wow! Has the B-Wing #10227 gone up that much? I just noticed someone in another thread trying to sell one for $215. Last time I checked they were around $150...
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    ^ The cheapest on BL is $190 (US) + S&H and shipping is not cheap for that set, I sold one last month for $210 (ship inc).
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Speaking of the B-Wing #10227, I've always looked at that one like the General Grievous #10186. For the longest time, they had #10186 marked down to half-price on [email protected] Apparently they couldn't give it away. Now it's going for roughly $150 and slowly climbing. I expect the same sort of trajectory for the B-Wing...slow but steady rise. They're both SW UCS sets that were only available for slightly over a year per Brickset, and both ended at a 50% discount to their RRP at [email protected]
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Thanks for everyone's thoughts on my musings a few posts up!

    Just a little background on my little all eggs in one basket strategy:
    -I don't rely on selling Lego for a living
    -It's obviously a gamble, just like any high risk investing
    -If I invested, say, $10k into only one, two or three sets and I lost everything, it really wouldn't matter much. I'm not trying to brag and don't get me wrong, I have to work a fair amount to earn $10k. But losing $10k is probably not going to change my life at all. I guess what I'm trying to say is, I don't mind gambling a bit, and I'm willing to risk losing in order to win big as opposed to taking a more balanced approach and probably just earning a relatively meager profit (some big winners, many mediocre performers).

    Look for a bunch of Palace Cinemas and Tumbers to be flooding the market a few years down the road lol!
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    pcirone said:

    I submit that it is impossible to overstock a modular.. the appetite post EOL will be insatiable.

    There were plenty of people who submitted that one couldn't go wrong investing in Pets.com and they were absolutely right until they weren't.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    nkx1 said:

    For investors here, does anyone look back and think they should have heavily invested in a very few select sets over the past few years and forgone most or all other sets you might have invested in?

    This has been my approach for a number of years now and it works for me. Each year I identify what is going to retire, what is going to bring the best returns, what is going to be easy to move in volume, and go to town. That usually narrows it down to 2-3 sets each year.

    I had my fair share of Home Ones when I first go into the lego game so I know what it is like to sit on a big pile of losers. Never again.

    nkx1
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^"Monster Fighters" wasn't a big hit, but the Haunted House was and if I were TLG; I would think about putting out another Haunted House or Mansion.

    HH was basically a Halloween set, while MF was not. I can not be the only one that likes both the Christmas theme and Halloween theme.

    What would be awesome would be Disney Haunted Mansion.

    I really wish they would do some large Disney Park sets for collectors.

    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    edited September 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^"Monster Fighters" wasn't a big hit, but the Haunted House was and if I were TLG; I would think about putting out another Haunted House or Mansion.

    Wasn't it a hit? I thought those sets sold quite well. The price point was a little high, especially Mad Scientist and his Monster.

    Sure, there were some sets left that were discounted when the product's shelf space time was up, but that seems to be true of all themes.
  • ShibShib Member Posts: 5,469
    edited September 2014
    CCC said:

    Sure, there were some sets left that were discounted when the product's shelf space time was up, but that seems to be true of all themes.

    I think people view the implications of sets being reduced completely wrong - to me it doesn't show the lack of success of a theme but it shows the poor stock control/oversight in required stock of the shops discounting them. The theme I see discounted most regularly is the City line, but no one ever considers that a flop. It's the very nature of it's success that causes shops to over order - this I think is also very much down to shops not being specialist toy shops etc so they have such a range of products to manage the stock of that more often mistakes are made in this way.
    madforLEGO
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    ^ Yes, I agree. I have purchased quite a few Friends sets ("for my daughter") and never once paid full RRP. (Especially) supermarkets need to clear their shelves to get new product on, and whatever is left gets discounted.
    Shib
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Pretty much anything thst Dis
    CCC said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^"Monster Fighters" wasn't a big hit, but the Haunted House was and if I were TLG; I would think about putting out another Haunted House or Mansion.

    Wasn't it a hit? I thought those sets sold quite well. The price point was a little high, especially Mad Scientist and his Monster.

    Sure, there were some sets left that were discounted when the product's shelf space time was up, but that seems to be true of all themes.
    I didn't say it was a flop. The theme was ok, but if it was that successful; wouldn't Lego try to come out with another wave?

  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    I'm glad they don't make more sets tbh as it makes these more valuable (eventually) if it's a limited theme!
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    ^ As they are planned a couple of years in advance, it is probably difficult to plan wave 2 based on no sales data. Maybe they will do a monsters theme again in a few years.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    The Walking Dead is one of the most popular TV Series in the US. Zombies in general, are the craze. I don't see how Lego doesn't capitalize on this? I know it was an exclusive, but The Zombies is an aftermarket superstar for a reason. The Series 1 Zombie is one of the most popular CMF's right there with the Series 2 Spartan.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    stevemack said:

    I'm glad they don't make more sets tbh as it makes these more valuable (eventually) if it's a limited theme!

    Not necessarily. If people enjoy a theme, like the Modulars, they may want to collect the entire theme.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    edited September 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    The Walking Dead is one of the most popular TV Series in the US. Zombies in general, are the craze. I don't see how Lego doesn't capitalize on this? I know it was an exclusive, but The Zombies is an aftermarket superstar for a reason. The Series 1 Zombie is one of the most popular CMF's right there with the Series 2 Spartan.

    Zombies are relatively adult content considering what zombies typically do to their victims.
    I'm guessing that is also why LEGO did not make a ton of 'The Zombies' sets.

    The Series 1 Zombie is also that expensive because it is a rare in a rare series of CMF, and was not added to BaF like the clown and the cheerleader were, also they have had other clowns in later series as well as other similar types in later series (Robot, caveman, Clowns, Cheerleaders, etc). Also LEGO did not make any more zombies until the MF and The Zombies set, but if you notice the Zombie from the Halloween Accessory set and the chauffeur tend to not do a lot because they were in easily accessible sets.
    I think MF is a line that will return, but later. I think LEGO wants to keep alternating their unique lines to keep interest up in other ideas.
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