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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    #10221 May very well hit $900-$1000 this Christmas. If it does, bully for those that have them. It was simply too expensive of an upfront purchase for me (never caught them on sale) and the box is just too massive for me to want to 1)store it and 2) ship it. I have smaller fish to fry :)
    Farmer_JohnmadforLEGO
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    mathew said:

    There are a lot of sets that I regret not having purchased, but the SSD #10221 isn't one of them.

    I regret not purchasing it when it was on sale at Target for $287 or something like that...

    SSD gets a lot of flack on this forum but I think it's going to hit $900-1000 this Christmas on the aftermarket. Kind of strange looking back how all of the "resellers" on this forum were poo-pooing it last year.
    $254 if I recall... :)

    I have had a lot of that set pass through my hands, but all are sold now on the quick-flip principle.

    Should I have kept one to build? Meh, it is big, but the detail of the model itself is lacking. I'd have preferred a $499 model with a finished bottom vs. a $399 model that was 75% finished. :)
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    The Grand Emporium is showing as "sold out" at [email protected] United States.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,129
    GE is officially sold out. What a long time comin!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^It appears that we are starting to get into the thick of EOL season...

    There are a lot of sets that appear to be on the cusp. Based on the free mini-VW Camper giveaway with its big brother, I think #10220 will be gone soon. The Sopwith Camel #10226 is now gone. The Grand Emporium is gone #10211. The Haunted House #10228 is gone. We'll probably see at least one Winter Village themed set go away...perhaps #10235. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tower Bridge #10214 goes. How about the Simpsons house #71006 - both licensed and probably not selling very well based on the Simpsons CMFs still on the shelves at our local Target store?

    And these are just a smattering of the larger sets...

  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    Still 'Available Now' at [email protected] AU. A couple of months ago it was listed as 'Sold Out'.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I would think the Simpsons House wouldn't be going away anytime soon.

    Opinions vary on the Camper Van, but I think its days are numbered. Amazon has been unable to fill my order for one of those that I made on the 11th (8 days ago) and they've still not been able to send a delivery estimate. Possible they may not be getting any more.

    I wouldn't expect the Tower Bridge to last much longer, either. At 5.5 cents per piece, it seems the manufacturer would try to get more for their raw materials and their production costs by bringing that high value/low profit item to a close. These are the same folks trying to get 15 cents per piece in some (overpriced) sets. (And, yes, I've heard/read all the arguments about how price per piece isn't much of a way to measure value).

    I don't understand why everyone thinks #10235, the Winter Market Village, won't last through the holidays. We've had 2 or even 3 Christmas sets available at the same time before, (Cottage, Post Office, Bakery) so there's no reason I can see that they shouldn't offer it right along with the new Santa's Workshop set. This will only be the second Christmas that #10235 is available, but people seem to think it could go at any time. The demand seems strong, with it selling out quickly. Anything could happen, but I see no reason that Lego would stop production on that set so early.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    mathew said:

    There are a lot of sets that I regret not having purchased, but the SSD #10221 isn't one of them.

    I regret not purchasing it when it was on sale at Target for $287 or something
    $228 plus tax

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,865
    edited September 2014

    GE is officially sold out. What a long time comin!

    Yeah, well it was 'Sold out' off and on for the past month. Lets see it stay that way for a while before I believe it is 'gone' gone.
    Also I think winter Village market is done this season as well.
  • pingonedownpingonedown Member Posts: 5
    BTTF Delorean set 21103 has popped back up with an Oct 4 ship date for US [email protected]
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...the BTTF Delorian set #21103 just became available again from Amazon for $27 and change as well...
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 651
    I ordered a GE a few weeks ago, when it was on backorder. Anyone have any idea how LEGO handles back orders in this case? When do you think I can expect my order?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    ^Yeah...the BTTF Delorian set #21103 just became available again from Amazon for $27 and change as well...

    It did, for 5 min... :)
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251

    ^It appears that we are starting to get into the thick of EOL season...

    There are a lot of sets that appear to be on the cusp. Based on the free mini-VW Camper giveaway with its big brother, I think #10220 will be gone soon. The Sopwith Camel #10226 is now gone. The Grand Emporium is gone #10211. The Haunted House #10228 is gone. We'll probably see at least one Winter Village themed set go away...perhaps #10235. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tower Bridge #10214 goes. How about the Simpsons house #71006 - both licensed and probably not selling very well based on the Simpsons CMFs still on the shelves at our local Target store?

    And these are just a smattering of the larger sets...

    I'll buy some #10228 in a month once it reappears on [email protected] They'll all be gone by the end of the year though except #71006, it's got at least a year left in it yet, maybe longer.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,942
    I love my SSD. Given the choice between a UCS ISD and the SSD at the same price, I would take the ISD every time though. Until there is a new UCS ISD I do think that the SSD will be missed and it will be a decent investment because of it. I really do hope that it's not the last truly huge UCS SW OT set that TLG make.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    I would like to see #10228 pop back up on SAH. I would love to get some more. Won't be surprised if it doesn't, pleasantly so if it does.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    ^Yeah...the BTTF Delorian set #21103 just became available again from Amazon for $27 and change as well...

    It did, for 5 min... :)
    What???

    How come I can never stumble upon a set that I actually want that way? Whenever I'm looking for the deal it isn't there. Whenever I'm just checking a set I already have and don't want I can get the deal. My Lego sale spidey-sense is virtually non-existent!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,865

    I ordered a GE a few weeks ago, when it was on backorder. Anyone have any idea how LEGO handles back orders in this case? When do you think I can expect my order?

    Depends on when the ship date is.
    If the ship date has past and you received no shipping notification:
    You can likely expect an answer from LEGO akin to:
    'Oops, we ran out before we could fulfill your order, we are sorry, but we have no more left.'
    At least that was what I have received in the past. That is why it is important to contact LEGO and ensure they know you have one waiting on back order.

    If the expended ship date has not past yet:
    You could get it still, but I would suggest contacting LEGO CS.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited September 2014
    Gavin83 said:

    They'll all be gone by the end of the year though except #71006, it's got at least a year left in it yet, maybe longer.

    While I don't doubt that #71006 Simpson House will still be for sale a year out, I just can't believe that it's making money for TLG (if the shear number of available Simpson CMFs in our area is any indicator). In fact, there are better selling sets (the UCS Tumbler comes to mind) that are much more profitable to hold in inventory and on shelves. To me, the Simpson house is deadweight at this point...
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    I have stated before, but the Simpsons House intrigues me because it is a fully realized house with rooms and play features that also happens to be gender neutral. I'm not a big PC person at all, but I like the idea of having a house that a boy or girl could feel equally at home playing with. Discard the simpsons figures and you have a great little LEGO play house. Not sure how that will translate to long term investment but for me it is a winner. I have one for myself. I will likely buy more over the next year or two as resources allow.
    Pitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Looks like the #853195 Brick Calendar is on the way out...fyi. Some of the smaller sets/themes I expect to go soon are:

    The three Superman sets - #76002, #76003, #76009, #6862
    Batman sets - #6860, #76000, #76001
    Marvel sets - #76008, #76005, #76006, #76007
    Kingdom sets - #10223
    Creator sets - #10233, #10241
    Technic sets - #9398, #42000, #42008
    LotR and Hobbit sets - #79003, #79005, #79006, #79007, #79008
    SW sets - #7965, #75005
    Chima sets - I don't really care enough to consider them...

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,865
    edited September 2014
    I dunno, If LEGO does do another Simpsons CMF line then the house will likely be out for another year (or at least they will produce them for another half year and try to live off of the remaining stocks until end of year)
    The house is large, and pretty defined, but just could not bring myself to buy one.
    Id be a bit shocked if HE is going out this year. I guess it has been out for some time. I think the reason why I did not pay much attention to it is because of the no discount policy on them in the US. I tend not to buy if I cannot get something on sale from LEGO or a retailer. That and it really hold no 'wonder' for me the way EN and MT did.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    #10226 Sopwith Camel listed as "Sold Out" at [email protected]
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    SSD, GE, HH, SC, WVM for 2014. The rest are still in production. The list for the non-exclusives is floating around on brickpicker if it was not posted here already but no surprises.
    mathew said:

    It would be kind of stupid for Lego to EOL a Haunted House six weeks before Halloween.

    TLG goes by end production dates now not end shelf dates. It is purely up to demand if a set lasts through the end of the year now. HH ended production in June and the stocks levels were not enough to last to Halloween in USA and Canada. It may be orderable again briefly if returns/declined credit cards/cancelling of reseller orders is greater than expected but they do oversell production runs with this in mind so it will be purely up to chance. If you do have them on backorder then don't go crazy with that account during double VIP as if it gets banned then they will cancel the backorder of the HH as well. If you don't care about the HH then go crazy and stock up on that cute xmas promo set.

  • GreenArrow57GreenArrow57 GBMember Posts: 71
    I was told that HH is 'expected back in October' by [email protected] - we'll see!
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited September 2014

    I was told that HH is 'expected back in October' by [email protected] - we'll see!

    Sorry I was referring to the N. America market. Europe has completely different supply. HH is still available at [email protected] everywhere besides N. America (as are GE, SSD and SC).

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    Where's #10225 in the retirement plans? Is that around for another year?
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 956

    SSD, GE, HH, SC, WVM for 2014.

    Only one season? That would surprise me.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ Last season and this. How's that only one season?
    Pitfall69madforLEGO
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    SSD, GE, HH, SC, WVM for 2014.

    Only one season? That would surprise me.
    The first couple WV-themed sets were three seasons. Now it's down to two seasons. I wouldn't wait too long to get the WVM in case they sell out early this season and are gone for good.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I just ordered a Winter Village Market today just to play it safe. It seems this theme's sets are trending towards only being available for 2 seasons.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Just wondered people's thoughts on... #7965 picked 3 of these up in the 3 for 2 in Argos last year... Looking back it doesn't seem like one of my wisest decisions... Tempted to part this out as I am worried that it's not going to reach RRP even in the spike when discontinued due to so many being hoarded post the USC model's success.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 869
    Until another Falcon comes out, I'd actually guess it will do well. It is an iconic ship, has all of the key characters, and you are starting out at a reasonable basis.

    Also, even if a new one comes out it may be with the Episode VII characters. And given how the most recent wave of rereleases has been smaller and generally subpar, you might find people wiling to spend more for your classic Falcons.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 956
    Dad said:

    ^ Last season and this. How's that only one season?

    My bad, I misinterpreted the post as the set having disappeared already. Not sure why.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    It did, for 5 min... :)

    Just checked...the Delorean is back in stock at Lego [email protected]
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    The Back to the Future Lego set is available again on Amazon $34.99.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515

    I ordered a GE a few weeks ago, when it was on backorder. Anyone have any idea how LEGO handles back orders in this case? When do you think I can expect my order?

    I ordered one on Aug 9. Just received notification today that it shipped.

  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    Renny said:

    The Back to the Future Lego set is available again on Amazon $34.99.

    They should have a couple of 100 in stock

  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 651
    goshe7 said:

    I ordered a GE a few weeks ago, when it was on backorder. Anyone have any idea how LEGO handles back orders in this case? When do you think I can expect my order?

    I ordered one on Aug 9. Just received notification today that it shipped.

    Lucky! I actually ordered one in July, but I cancelled it and re-ordered it on September 11th so I could get the Classic Spaceman set. Looks like it's back up on [email protected], with an expected ship date of October 2nd.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341

    goshe7 said:

    I ordered a GE a few weeks ago, when it was on backorder. Anyone have any idea how LEGO handles back orders in this case? When do you think I can expect my order?

    I ordered one on Aug 9. Just received notification today that it shipped.

    Lucky! I actually ordered one in July, but I cancelled it and re-ordered it on September 11th so I could get the Classic Spaceman set. Looks like it's back up on [email protected], with an expected ship date of October 2nd.
    just curious why you didn't pick from amazon @ 27.99 all those months and paid whole retail+tax @ [email protected]? there are other sets that could have got you the spaceman no?
    VaderX
  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    ^ I believe he was talking about the GE. I did the same cancel/re-order and was concerned it was NEVER going to ship. I also consider myself lucky!
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    [email protected] is cutting off the cashback with its big partners (shop discover etc). It was always nice to score the 5% (10% during double cashback) but no more. No idea if they plan to bring it back but I doubt it at this point.
  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    ^that is a shame, hopefully the October - December 5% promotion will still apply to [email protected] capped at $1,500 in purchases at online retailers for shopdiscover.

    Walmart, Kmart and Target all still participate in the standard 5% at least.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    LEGO is no longer a partner with shop discover so there will be no more cashback of any kind from them. The links have already been deleted.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^I guess Lego doesn't want to share their margin with those companies that distribute their product for them. It's the ole "cutting off your nose despite your face" ploy...
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited September 2014
    Or even to spite your face.

    They probably read the 27% comments and realised it wasn't bringing in new business just giving people discounts. Will be interesting to see if their European cash backs are still in place. Huw mentioned some problems last week too.
    Daddougtshewman
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    LEGO is no longer a partner with shop discover so there will be no more cashback of any kind from them. The links have already been deleted.

    You're right. I must have just got in under the wire. I put in a LEGO order on 9/18 and used ShopDiscover. Too bad, LEGO had been one of the retailers for years. Next thing you know they'll nix free shipping!

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Cash back sites are nice, but lets be honest... is 3% going to get you to buy something you otherwise weren't going to?

    Well, sure, for some people, it might... but I suspect a lot of it was just giving away money to existing customers.
    TXLegoguydougtsMathBuilderstarwarfan77
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Well if they were smart they would set up a few more warehouses within zone 5 of all areas on the mainland and move to Priority Mail to cut their shipping costs by 50% and offer 2-3 day shipping. That move to dimensional pricing in Jan by Fedex is going to hurt them bigtime.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,942
    ^ Wish I could get an extra 3% off a car, but yes, in the grand scheme of things, on an individual basis, cashback is peanuts. You need to leave it alone to accumulate if using a cashback website.
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