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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,481
    Pitfall69 said:

    I thought the consensus here was that the current X-Wing wasn't as good as the original?

    This is the reseller thread, so the best one is the one that will increase most in price if you bought one today. Quality of build is nothing :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/6775/rumours-about-star-wars-ucs-models/p1

    Just have a read. People's views and opinions can change over time, but from reading these comments; the consensus was that rehashing UCS sets was not welcome.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    The B-Wing didn't sell well (at least here in the US) and was being sold at 50% off before EOL. What what I've heard is that the current X-Wing isn't doing well either.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    ^ Which tells me that LEGO is going to lean more and more towards large playsets (10188, Ewok Village, Sandcrawler), and more and more away from the display models. Slave 1 was in the pipeline already obviously, but if it and the X-wing both lag in sales like the SSD and B-Wing before them, that could be the death knell
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,654

    Scary omission from the fall catalogue.

    What is?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I think they should include a degree of playability with all sets. I mean if you want a scale model that sits on a shelf then there are better and probably cheaper options than Lego.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    Probably. All I know is that I have shelves and shelves full of LEGO display models, but I would never even consider owning other types of models. No interest at all. It's not the precise accuracy or price of the model I'm interested in, it's the art of using the LEGO palette to create a representation of something.

    To me, it will be a very sad day when the bulk of the LEGO "adult" offerings tend toward the Ewok Village or the Fairground Mixer style and away from "models". The apex of the LEGO AFOL offerings was the 2007-2010 timeframe, and we've already been in a slow backward slide since. I would hate to see that pattern accelerate. I realize it's about sales and profitability, and if LEGO continues in that direction then it's likely because it is what makes financial sense for them. But it doesn't make it any less lamentable to me personally.
    BrickDancerLegoboy
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110

    Scary omission from the fall catalogue.

    What is?
    yeah, the cryptic posts are a bit nauseating really. Why bother to post at all? I got my fall catalogue just now and noticed the absence of 10211, 10220, 10225, 10228 and 10226. Not sure what's "scary" about any of those - none would be shocking to see go.

    I suppose it's a pun in reference to the 10228 haunted house?

    Pitfall69MathBuildernkx1
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 451
    I don't have a spring catalog. Is the Horizon Express in it? It's #10223
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 451
    Oops, sorry. I mean it is #10233, Horizon Express
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    I don't think it was, no
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @legofantexas - I meant to use the Mantle reference as only the touchstone part of the metaphor. The '52 Mantle was the poster child for the baseball card boom of the late 80s. Everyone saw it as the holy grail.
    Pitfall69LegoFanTexas
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    dougts said:


    yeah, the cryptic posts are a bit nauseating really. Why bother to post at all? I got my fall catalogue just now and noticed the absence of 10211, 10220, 10225, 10228 and 10226. Not sure what's "scary" about any of those - none would be shocking to see go.

    I suppose it's a pun in reference to the 10228 haunted house?

    image
    dougtsPitfall69Brickarmor
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I thought it was obvious that it was #10228 he was talking about, am I the only one?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    wagnerml2 said:

    @legofantexas - I meant to use the Mantle reference as only the touchstone part of the metaphor. The '52 Mantle was the poster child for the baseball card boom of the late 80s. Everyone saw it as the holy grail.

    Ahh, fair enough...

    Question... do you think most sealed box UCS Falcons being sold today in the $3K price range are being kept sealed? Or are they being opened and built?

    That might be one key fact worth knowing (even if we can't really know the numbers).

    Now what that might mean either way, is yet another question! :)
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110

    I thought it was obvious that it was #10228 he was talking about, am I the only one?

    i guess I was just slow on the uptake. Only after typing my entire message did I finally "get it", hence my last line

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    edited September 2014


    Question... do you think most sealed box UCS Falcons being sold today in the $3K price range are being kept sealed? Or are they being opened and built?

    Three possibilities as I see it:
    1) someone buying in hopes to resell at an appreciable increase later
    2) a collector who just wants to say "I have a sealed 10179 in my collection", but who really doesn't care if it appreciates or not
    3) someone who really wants to open and build the set and has enough spare money to spend to do so.

    I would have to think the majority of current sales fall into either (2) or (3), right? I mean, for investment purposes, there are probably a ton of better ways to invest $3000, even just in the LEGO world alone. So then the question becomes, is it more (2)s or more (3)s? My guess would be (2). At least if you keep it sealed, you know you can likely at least get most of your money back, so there is some psychological aspect involved there in justifying the expenditure.

  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,986
    binaryeye said:

    ^ I propose gentlefig.

    LOL!

    I thought it was obvious that it was #10228 he was talking about, am I the only one?


    Yes, it should have been obvious, but another here that was slow on the uptake after a long day.
    It was really quite funny once it was spelled out. :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^I was wondering what all the confusion was? The obvious pun and the fact that @doriansdad was talking about the Haunted House was on its way out soon.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    edited September 2014
    I don't remember for sure, but has #10223 Joust been in a catalog in a while? I only ask because I'm not sure inclusion or exclusion in a catalog is a good indicator of status. Research institute is in the new catalog as is Exo Suit...
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,146
    I don't recall the Joust being in one in a while, but that could also be because I have not been looking closely for it. The obvious answer is that TLG can't put EVERYTHING in a catalog otherwise it would be pretty bulky. The same can probably be said for most companies with a plethora of products. It is in and of itself a full time job for many I am sure deciding what goes in and what does not for any given catalog - again, this can probably be said for most largerish companies.

    As for the joust specifically, it has been out a while now - what two or three years? It is currently backordered and shipping I believe mid September - if it is something you want even the slightest I would go for it.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I've always been wishy-washy on connecting EOL to the catalog. When other retailers don't restock (CLUE), and the set has a lengthy backstock date (CLUE) are some of the things I predicate on.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Just curious as to what exactly gets banned when one is banned from [email protected]: IP address, credit card, shipping address, VIP account, all the above? If anyone has an answer.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,146
    FatMatt said:

    Just curious as to what exactly gets banned when one is banned from [email protected]: IP address, credit card, shipping address, VIP account, all the above? If anyone has an answer.

    Haha why do you ask?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Simply curious:)
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,146
    FatMatt said:

    Simply curious:)

    In all honesty I think a group of Danish vikings come to your home and pillage your LEGO - to be forever banished from the ABS Kingdom.

    Some refute this but I beg to differ.
    Dougout
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    Given the limited amount of space in the catalog I do not think there is any definitive information you can glean from it by the inclusion or omission of specific sets.

    I received the summer catalog, which featured the SSD prominently, and yet the very next day in the LEGO store was told in no uncertain terms that it was sold out and would not be returning.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    FatMatt said:

    Just curious as to what exactly gets banned when one is banned from [email protected]: IP address, credit card, shipping address, VIP account, all the above? If anyone has an answer.

    All of the above. Phone numbers and email addresses as well so any accounts linked by any or all of that info is banned as well. Similar to paypal/ebay/amazon ban. I have heard they will also be enforcing the bans at their brand stores beginning next year so stay tuned.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited September 2014
    Just want to add it is simply not worth the time in working around the ban if you need volume. Walmart and Target are your best bets...at least until TLG starts requiring them to enforce limits lol. This company is the real deal...,,I have heard they now treat their retailers like crap as well....it will either payoff or backfire horribly. I would not be surprised to see them join Vero on ebay before too long.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^I don't see this as a bad thing overall. This would definitely get rid of most of these Chinese knockoffs that are all over EBay and the people selling them. Although, I would imagine that if you currently use official Lego pictures to sell your sets; Lego may have EBay remove your listing.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I kind of suspected that. Thanks for the reply.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited September 2014

    FatMatt said:

    Just curious as to what exactly gets banned when one is banned from [email protected]: IP address, credit card, shipping address, VIP account, all the above? If anyone has an answer.

    All of the above. Phone numbers and email addresses as well so any accounts linked by any or all of that info is banned as well. Similar to paypal/ebay/amazon ban. I have heard they will also be enforcing the bans at their brand stores beginning next year so stay tuned.

    So I need to pull a Zartan when going to the store now?
  • RomanticWarriorRomanticWarrior United StatesMember Posts: 248
    So soon we will see posters hanging behind the registers at LBR that say "Do not sell to this man" and LFT picture on it?
    dougtspreverePitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Lego's Most Wanted.
    doriansdaddougtsCircleKRainstorm26MathBuilderChristineVVRomanticWarrior
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,825
    edited September 2014
    You joke. It more or less exists already. Some just don't know it. ;o)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^I think this is why it takes forever to process orders online. A few years ago, it didn't take this long. I'm sure they review every order somehow.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    So should I stop talking to the store manager and employees there? Only half-kidding. I have great conversations with them about what's happening in the Lego universe that's not company-derived. Because it is a universe that goes beyond the company itself.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I think this is why it takes forever to process orders online. A few years ago, it didn't take this long. I'm sure they review every order somehow.

    they do a manual review of every order. I mentioned this in another thread recently, but that is what they told me directly. And I agree - a couple of years ago it didn't happen like it is now.

    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    dougts said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I think this is why it takes forever to process orders online. A few years ago, it didn't take this long. I'm sure they review every order somehow.

    they do a manual review of every order. I mentioned this in another thread recently, but that is what they told me directly. And I agree - a couple of years ago it didn't happen like it is now.

    Ahhh, I didn't see your comment, but I kinda figured that is what they were doing. It is annoying if you ask me. I didn't even get an email saying my item was being shipped. I'm sure this is part of the problem.

  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    LFT documented his experiences with getting banned on this thread. I think that was around Jan of 2013.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    dougts said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I think this is why it takes forever to process orders online. A few years ago, it didn't take this long. I'm sure they review every order somehow.

    they do a manual review of every order. I mentioned this in another thread recently, but that is what they told me directly. And I agree - a couple of years ago it didn't happen like it is now.

    I think that they were lying to you. Given the volume of orders that [email protected] must receive, conducting a manual review of every order to try and identify resellers would be an unbelievably and monumentally stupid expenditure of resources. If they told you that they do an automated review to identify suspect purchasers and then conduct a manual review of the customers that get red-flagged, that I would buy. If [email protected] were doing a manual review of every order, their management has much bigger problems than resellers.

    canon03pharmjodMathBuilderLegoFanTexasCCC
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    edited September 2014
    I never said they were doing it to look for resellers. What I can tell you is that I spoke for fifteen minutes with the rep and then their supervisor specifically about this manual review process and it was confirmed to me repeatedly that they do in fact manually review every order

    The logistics are insane, but it certainly explains the long delays that every order now seems to experience
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    dougts said:

    I never said they were doing it to look for resellers. What I can tell you is that I spoke for fifteen minutes with the rep and then their supervisor specifically about this manual review process and it was confirmed to me repeatedly that they do in fact manually review every order

    The logistics are insane, but it certainly explains the long delays that every order now seems to experience

    Do they do it as quality control during the packing process?

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    edited September 2014
    their answer as to "why" was some customer service mumbo jumbo that was clearly a complete line of horse manure. But it probably passed muster with most of the people who ask, so that's good enough for them I suppose. Something along the lines of wanting to make sure that each order was accurate, payment information was correct, and that it was going to be delivered to the correct address. You know, the kind of stuff that any online ordering system with a darn already all does for you...

    I suspect that the real reasons are more to overcome shortcomings and double checks that have not (yet?) been developed directly into the system. Cross referencing other orders/other accounts for similar addresses and payment methods to ensure the limits on both free and paid items comes to mine. While I'm quite certain then have after-the-fact data mining tools in place to look for these kinds of things, I'm guessing their order management system cannot currently handle weeding them out while processing real-time orders. Given the fairly obvious holes in their current system we have all been discussing for years now, that really shouldn't come as a surprise.

    I know that for the past year or so, EVERY order I place goes immediately to customer service and sits there anywhere from 24 to 72 hours. Prior to that, my orders never went to customer service. Given that they haven't banned me yet, I can only surmise that either I am on some sort of "watch list", and that not everyone is getting this same treatment, or that indeed what CS told me about all orders being reviewed is indeed true, as insane as it sounds. It certainly wouldn't be the first time that a major company like this through human labor at an operational problem, at least as a stopgap until technology can be deployed.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    The thing that amazes me the most is that they don't seem to be fixing the issues, not properly or in a timely manner anyway. For a company of that size, and with their relatively small\simple inventory, supply chain & logistics (Compared to the likes of Amazon Walmart etc.) I see no reason for them not to have done a major overhaul the site and checkout system.

    I can only guess that [email protected] is a low priority for them, which could be the case as I assume the majority of Lego sales are through the large department store etc.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    S&H I think is a priority for them as they make much higher percent margins on product they sell there. If it is not a huge priority, well, then that is a sign of other problems. I realize volume wise they do more through other retailers, but why would you not want to capitalize on better margins. The dream would be to not need Amazon, Walmart, TRU, Target et al. For a company where "only the best" is a motto, you would think that they would do just about whatever it took to have one of the best online shopping experiences of all retailers. I think @LegoFanTexas‌ even mentioned a while back that they could probably contract with Amazon to get the SAH site up to muster.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,274
    ^ Even if their site was amazon grade they'd never take the business from Amazon, WM and Target unless they dropped their "no reseller" attitude and just enforced limits like amazon can and let people buy what they want, when they want, within those limits and not police it the way they've started to do.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    graphite said:

    ^ Even if their site was amazon grade they'd never take the business from Amazon, WM and Target unless they dropped their "no reseller" attitude and just enforced limits like amazon can and let people buy what they want, when they want, within those limits and not police it the way they've started to do.

    ^ This...

    Amazon has moved to almost a very strict 2 set limit per week... Used to be most sets were 5, only the big sets were 2, now all (or almost all) are 2 per week...

    Fair enough, that is their right and I understand how Amazon wants to make sure they serve all their customers, no shame in that.

    So why not just put in a 2 per week limit at [email protected]? Let us buy what we want, but not too much of it, so that everyone is served?
    madforLEGOdougtsprevere
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    pharmjod said:

    S&H I think is a priority for them as they make much higher percent margins on product they sell there. If it is not a huge priority, well, then that is a sign of other problems. I realize volume wise they do more through other retailers, but why would you not want to capitalize on better margins. The dream would be to not need Amazon, Walmart, TRU, Target et al.

    Theoretically yes, but I think in practice Lego will always need the others as it gets the Lego brand out there and in people's faces. Something that selling from a single web site will never be able to do. The old saying "Out of sight out of mind" comes to mind.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,654

    graphite said:

    ^ Even if their site was amazon grade they'd never take the business from Amazon, WM and Target unless they dropped their "no reseller" attitude and just enforced limits like amazon can and let people buy what they want, when they want, within those limits and not police it the way they've started to do.

    ^ This...

    Amazon has moved to almost a very strict 2 set limit per week... Used to be most sets were 5, only the big sets were 2, now all (or almost all) are 2 per week...

    Fair enough, that is their right and I understand how Amazon wants to make sure they serve all their customers, no shame in that.

    So why not just put in a 2 per week limit at [email protected]? Let us buy what we want, but not too much of it, so that everyone is served?
    Exactly. I have no issue with LEGO doing this, but it seems they are being rather lazy when it comes to their site. And move to use promo codes when buying and do what yoyo.com and other sites do, when the code is used, that is it, and will be removed once used. This will stop, or slow down, those that make multiple purchases to get tons of promos.
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