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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    I reckon 20,000 $600 UCS MFs would sell out within a week, all LEGO would have to do is suggest its a limited release.

    Yes they would because I know someone that would buy 10% of that allocation, as long as its definately a limited release ;-)

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    What, realistically, are the chances of Lego re-releasing either the set unmodified, or bringing out a similarly-scaled model, or, do I dare to imagine, a larger interior-detailed model? I'm assuming that in any of these scenarios the market would crash overnight, so I wonder whether to sell it while it has no competitors or display it for a year or two and sell it down the track.

    Odds of an umodified version are zero. I have heard of the $699 MF "playset" and the only reason I give this any credibility is the decision to extend 10188 until Jan 2016 when this new MF playset would take over. That makes sense to me. A playset would not harm the value of 10179 at all (if anything the price would rise). I would assume there will be new vehicles for the new SW movies to get UCS treatment.

    You must also consider the new business relationship with Disney. I am sure Dinsey tells TLG what direction they want to go in and has to give the ok on the sets. It would make sense to give the most iconic ship playset treatment and the less iconic ships UCS treatment.
  • theLEGOmantheLEGOman UKMember Posts: 1,520

    All in the same set or are those separate ideas? Since most of these hypothetical sets would never be opened the random inserts would never see the light of day. Or are you suggesting that those would prompt the opening of the sets?

    All in the same set, a numbered plaque for next to the model, a numbered part for inside it and a 1 in 8 chance for an awesome limited edition figure.

    It needs to be high piece count thus high cost to justify its largest release yet status. Large number of minifigs as well, maybe double the death star 2.
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    A large MF 'playset' I fear would probably be engineered for playing (imagine that), as opposed to being an attempt to replicate the craft's interior accurately. I live in hope that one day Lego's just going to say "screw it, we're doing a no-compromises, 10,000 piece full interior/exterior minifig scale UCS Falcon, limited edition to 20,000 individually numbered pieces at $1000 each". I don't know anything about the commercial viability of such an enterprise, but they'd sell out in 3 seconds because every man and his dog would empty their life savings and create five [email protected] accounts to buy as many as they could get their hands on. Let's not forget that the Volkswagen Group lost millions of dollars on every Bugatti Veyron sold, but it burnished the brand and became an icon almost overnight.
    Odindusk
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,889
    edited August 2014

    I reckon 20,000 $600 UCS MFs would sell out within a week, all LEGO would have to do is suggest its a limited release.

    Yep, it's all about TLG letting us know that it is "limited", which will cause the mass buy-up by resellers. Take away the notion of limited though and they would probably languish on the shelves for quite a while when only real consumers buying it for themselves set the buying pace.

    Look at how 41999 prices have softened. A limited edition set of limited desirability beyond its rarity. A year down the line you place that set next to the 4x4 crawler and ask someone to pay three times as much and they start scratching their heads.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    I live in hope that one day Lego's just going to say "screw it, we're doing a no-compromises, 10,000 piece full interior/exterior minifig scale UCS Falcon, limited edition to 20,000 individually numbered pieces at $1000 each".

    I doubt Disney would give the OK for that but you can always hope.

  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,154
    a limited UCS Falcon is only a good idea if you are one of the few who manage to get one. Everyone else would be livid. Much more so than the outrage of missing out on limited Technic or Research Institutes or Lloyd spinners.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,886
    Remember the Technic Star Wars figs? How about Technic Star Wars vehicles. That would be fantastic.
    juggles7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401

    All in the same set or are those separate ideas? Since most of these hypothetical sets would never be opened the random inserts would never see the light of day. Or are you suggesting that those would prompt the opening of the sets?

    All in the same set, a numbered plaque for next to the model, a numbered part for inside it and a 1 in 8 chance for an awesome limited edition figure.

    It needs to be high piece count thus high cost to justify its largest release yet status. Large number of minifigs as well, maybe double the death star 2.
    Didn't anyone tell you not to mix prescription medications and alcohol?

    First, what does a burning Anakin have to do with the Millennium Falcon? Second, I didn't think the Death Star 2 had any minifigures ;) Third, why would Lego put that many minifigures into one set? There aren't that many characters outside Han, Chewbacca, Leia, Luke, Ben and Lando that are associated with the Millennium Falcon are there?

  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    They took pre orders for some of the stock the first time around right, any reason they couldn't do the same for the rerelease?
    monkeyhanger
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342



    There aren't that many characters outside Han, Chewbacca, Leia, Luke, Ben and Lando that are associated with the Millennium Falcon are there?



    A Nien Nunb in chrome would be good !

    juggles7
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,889

    They took pre orders for some of the stock the first time around right, any reason they couldn't do the same for the rerelease?

    They could also ensure (with enough takers) that people have to resort to getting their nana to buy one to end up with more than one (for resale). Pre-orders, VIP only, one per household, 5% deposit down. Would make for far more even distribution. Even so, I bet there'd be plenty willing to sell their one and only set if people who missed out were offering silly money for one.

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    prevere said:

    Remember the Technic Star Wars figs? How about Technic Star Wars vehicles. That would be fantastic.

    Like this.
    https://ideas.lego.com/projects/20213

    The joystick works and it doesn't fall apart as you swish it around.
    prevereRonyar
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,889
    ^ The scaling and accuracy on that with just rudimentary technic parts (ignoring the novel mechanical aspects) is amazing.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,886
    ^^Love it.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    10,000 parts, 800$ 700£, 4,000 limited number release with certificate and small display with model details and sets limited number as well as a printed piece for inside model with number on, 500 randomly inserted figures dark chrome, chrome, gold or led lit part translucent figure eg burning Anakin from the end of ep3.

    If it comes with a working hyperdrive, then I'm in...
    Pitfall69
  • theLEGOmantheLEGOman UKMember Posts: 1,520
    Pitfall69 said:

    All in the same set or are those separate ideas? Since most of these hypothetical sets would never be opened the random inserts would never see the light of day. Or are you suggesting that those would prompt the opening of the sets?

    All in the same set, a numbered plaque for next to the model, a numbered part for inside it and a 1 in 8 chance for an awesome limited edition figure.

    It needs to be high piece count thus high cost to justify its largest release yet status. Large number of minifigs as well, maybe double the death star 2.
    Didn't anyone tell you not to mix prescription medications and alcohol?

    First, what does a burning Anakin have to do with the Millennium Falcon? Second, I didn't think the Death Star 2 had any minifigures ;) Third, why would Lego put that many minifigures into one set? There aren't that many characters outside Han, Chewbacca, Leia, Luke, Ben and Lando that are associated with the Millennium Falcon are there?

    Where did I say it needs to be a Millennium Falcon?

    When I wrote Death Star 2 I was referring to the 2nd Death Star LEGO made, the 10188 rather than the first one they made, known as the Death Star II.

    A burning Anakin that glows is to show the level expected of a giveaway figure put into sets of this price, it could be a Han Solo figure inside a translucent carbonite enclosure for example.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    ^Because we are ALL talking about a re release of another UCS Millennium Falcon; that's why.
    Bumblepants
  • theLEGOmantheLEGOman UKMember Posts: 1,520
    I'm not talking of only the MF, a 10,000 piece 3 foot long cloud city playset with 40 + figs would be a nice set.
    Pitfall69Johnnyfinlandia
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406

    Odds of an umodified version are zero. I have heard of the $699 MF "playset" and the only reason I give this any credibility is the decision to extend 10188 until Jan 2016 when this new MF playset would take over. That makes sense to me. A playset would not harm the value of 10179 at all (if anything the price would rise). I would assume there will be new vehicles for the new SW movies to get UCS treatment.

    You must also consider the new business relationship with Disney. I am sure Dinsey tells TLG what direction they want to go in and has to give the ok on the sets. It would make sense to give the most iconic ship playset treatment and the less iconic ships UCS treatment.

    This would be pretty much the same situation as it is with the current DS playset and the older UCS version. It would be interesting to see if that happens.
  • NickF22NickF22 United KingdomMember Posts: 424
    I love the way this has turned into "predictions on discontinuing sets before they are even announced" :)
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    ^welcome to the anything goes thread. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    Most people are aware that this is the "reseller" and "anything goes" thread. Unless you live in "Hungrystan" ;)

    Enter at your own risk.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540

    What, realistically, are the chances of Lego re-releasing either the set unmodified, or bringing out a similarly-scaled model, or, do I dare to imagine, a larger interior-detailed model? I'm assuming that in any of these scenarios the market would crash overnight, so I wonder whether to sell it while it has no competitors or display it for a year or two and sell it down the track.

    Odds of an umodified version are zero. I have heard of the $699 MF "playset" and the only reason I give this any credibility is the decision to extend 10188 until Jan 2016 when this new MF playset would take over. That makes sense to me. A playset would not harm the value of 10179 at all (if anything the price would rise). I would assume there will be new vehicles for the new SW movies to get UCS treatment.

    You must also consider the new business relationship with Disney. I am sure Dinsey tells TLG what direction they want to go in and has to give the ok on the sets. It would make sense to give the most iconic ship playset treatment and the less iconic ships UCS treatment.
    Never tell me the odds
    wagnerml2DanGP
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I think that Lego fully realizes that some larger release of the MF is a no-brainer to coincide with the release of Ep VII. It would make more sense that it would be a playset as the movie would/should generate some momentum among younger movie goers. Either way, whether it is a large playset of some version of a UCS, I don't see the original ever being touched from a value standpoint. There are only so many of those out there and when they change hands, they tend to do so at climbing rates. That set is out "'52 Mickey Mantle" to draw a baseball card analogy. It is the set that really started the huge uptick in reselling.
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    Looks like amazon found a whole pallet of LEGO Creator Expert 10235 Winter Village Market
    instock. limit 2 if anyone needs em
    madforLEGO
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Amazon selling them?
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^^WVM is still around. Now if it were the Cottage that would be interesting.
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540
    edited August 2014

    Amazon selling them?

    Yep. I got one a couple of week ago from Amazon (Amazon was selling them); now they have them, either still or again. not sure
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Amazon US.

    Won't ship to the UK :(
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,727
    ^ Not for £43.64.
    Pitfall69SuperTramp
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540
    vasp said:

    Looks like amazon found a whole pallet of LEGO Creator Expert 10235 Winter Village Market
    instock. limit 2 if anyone needs em

    That was quick. It is gone.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337



    That was quick. It is gone.

    Well when you have a whole host of resellers who are banned from [email protected] and only one other place has it available online then it is not going to last long once the alerts go off.

    I will get a small amount of this set from [email protected] I need one for my own collection and we all know everyone wants those dark blue arches for Market Street and Cafe Corner. I think I will hold out for double VIP but if it goes before then no big loss....this set is certainly the dog of the entire theme. Hopefully Santas Workshop will boost some interest but I am not going to kid myself it will deliver 10229 returns. This set is certainly the worst pick out of this years retiring exclusives along with Sopwith.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,886
    I wonder if we could see WVM at 30% off in the Stores once Santa comes out?
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,097
    prevere said:

    I wonder if we could see WVM at 30% off in the Stores once Santa comes out?

    doubtful 30% at least at LEGO stores; the set will still sell at retail and it is an Exclusive/Hard to Find set anyway.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited August 2014
    No discount on WVM in the USA per policy. It will sell out at RRP regardless. Not many are left. Personally I would buy half a share in 10228 over this set....for reselling purposes anyway. If you need WVM for your winter collection then buy it now at [email protected] b4 they are sold out.
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540

    No discount on WVM in the USA per policy. It will sell out at RRP regardless. Not many are left. Personally I would buy half a share in 10228 over this set....for reselling purposes anyway. If you need WVM for your winter collection then buy it now at [email protected] b4 they are sold out.

    You can try to watch Amazon US for the WVM, but I think they are done selling it (though I guess they had a last 'gasp' a few days ago)
    Agreed on buying one now from [email protected] before they are gone, as I doubt LEGO is making anymore of them.
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    edited August 2014
    walmart.com has SW advent calendar in stock
    got some

    about 1500 left
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Looks like the holiday promo set 1 will compliment santas workshop and will be available Oct 1. Should be a huge winner and a great time to also earn double VIP. 1 month to prep. This is going to be fun :)
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    No love for the advent calendar.
    Still showing 1498 in stock.

    Is this not going to be a hit or what? Opinions??

    My assumption was dart vader santa is going to be a hit.

    May be I'm wrong and should re-consider loading up.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,342
    ^ by now TLG should be getting production levels on the calendars about right. Would be wary of hedging on a shortage, most casual buyers will find them at retail fairly easily
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 866

    Looks like the holiday promo set 1 will compliment santas workshop and will be available Oct 1. Should be a huge winner and a great time to also earn double VIP. 1 month to prep. This is going to be fun :)

    Absolutely agree. I'm sure the second set in November will also be awesome. I'm thinking get the winter set in cot for promo 1 and save a UCS set for promo 2 and hopefully triple VIP on brick Friday.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...the promo holiday sets are some of my favorite sets. I always look forward to them. Not holding my breath on triple VIP points though...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540
    Yeah, hoping I can get into the pre BF event, only because I hate going to store on BF and not sure how much I want to do on [email protected] (plus the event may have the 3x VIP points-fingers crossed-) But there are a bunch of things I will likely buy with 2x VIP. Bunch of different things going on with LEGO in October, the Holiday set, the 2x VIP, CMF, etc. Should be interesting
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...I am planning to help TLG with their bottom-line in October. I've been saving up some bigger purchases for that month to get all the double VIP points I can garner. As a bonus, I'm hoping that my purchases push me over the line to get the special invitation for the pre-BF sale. We'll see, I guess...
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    If it is like last year, you're more likely to get a pre-BF invite by buying less, rather than more.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I reckon 20,000 $600 UCS MFs would sell out within a week, all LEGO would have to do is suggest its a limited release.

    Yes they would because I know someone that would buy 10% of that allocation, as long as its definately a limited release ;-)

    20,000 of them at $600 each is only 12 million dollars.

    Yea, I said "only"... to a company that is doing billions and billions in sales, that is a very niche product...

    That being said, at $1,000 each, it gets more interesting, if only due to the profit margins.

    Even at that price, I don't think they would last long.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    wagnerml2 said:

    Either way, whether it is a large playset of some version of a UCS, I don't see the original ever being touched from a value standpoint. There are only so many of those out there and when they change hands, they tend to do so at climbing rates. That set is out "'52 Mickey Mantle" to draw a baseball card analogy. It is the set that really started the huge uptick in reselling.

    The beauty of this is that many of us have completely different views, some will be right, some will be wrong...

    Or maybe we'll all be wrong! :)

    I don't agree that you can compare baseball cards to LEGO in that regard. A reissued UCS Falcon is just fine to most people, the number of people who care about having an "original" are very limited.

    A reprinted '52 Mickey Mantle card is fun, but worthless from a resale value. The original indeed has value. But neither card is all that "useful", while a LEGO set has intrinsic value just from the bricks, even if the set pictured on the box is never built.

    Those same bricks can make a thousand different things, which is what really sets it apart from baseball cards.

    Would I want a reissued UCS Falcon? No, I personally wouldn't, because I've built it already. What I'd be more interested in would be a freshly designed version with some interior space in it.

    Would such a thing affect the value of the original? If it is the same minifig scale, yes I do think it would hit the value hard.

    Look at 7191, the original UCS X-Wing. It took a big value hit once the new 10240 came out.
    woony2
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Scary omission from the fall catalogue.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    Look at 7191, the original UCS X-Wing. It took a big value hit once the new 10240 came out.

    Thanks for the reminder @LegoFanTexas...I need to grab a copy of #10240 when double VIP points hit in October.
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