How do you know when to jump into selling?

Pitfall69 · June 2014

I think @TheLoneTensor was getting caught up in the "I sell used sets for more than new" dialog. If not; I will have to disagree with him. Every used Harry Potter set that I have sold has sold more than its original MSRP.

Obviously, a used set will almost never sell for more than a NISB version. I say "almost never" because I'm sure it has happened. People do crazy things sometimes.

You also have to factor in selling fees and shipping. You may sell a used set for more than it originally sold for retail, but what was your net after all the fees?

SuperTramp · June 2014

If i was Natebw i'd ignore nearly all this thread. probably the most complicated and confusing thread ive read on the internet.

Pitfall69 · June 2014

^Hahahaha. Forget about jumping into selling. We might have to talk him out of jumping off a building :)

TheLoneTensor · June 2014

@rocao‌, you're reaching all the way back to 2005, which since then, Lego has released about 5000 different things. The amount of Lego things that are on the "true" list are very low. If we were to pick out 500 things that are "true" since 2005, that would still be only 10% of what's been released, which reflects what I stated before when I wrote "most used sets will never sell more than they cost new, ever." I have yet to be dissuaded from that viewpoint.

You're focusing on trains here, and I get that because this started with the TLR train, but we blew past that with the blanket (and argued as being very incorrect) statement that old used stuff reliably retains its value compared to MSRP. Anyway, let's stick with trains for a minute. It's a solid segment for speculation with a good overall track record, but I think the TLR train will have a rough climb for a used set. It's sweet, but it's not accurate at all - half toy/half adult and all that. Also, you also state that the Toy Story train is "very close." Looking at ebay used sold listings, I'm seeing $50-60. That's a far cry from MSRP of $80. And to echo @CCC‌, even if it were to reach $84 in 5 more long years, 1.05x RRP is far different from a value that actually means anything.

Suffice to say if we're talking strictly about value and resale, many sets won't appreciate even as MISB, and far fewer will do so used. If it's used by children as a toy (I know, weird right?), then it firmly barges into "kiss your chance goodbye" land, and it instead becomes a beloved toy for a while before it gets assimilated into the plastic tubs with all the rest.

Pitfall69 · June 2014

@TheLoneTensor

Of course Lego train sets have a good track record ;)

mountebank · June 2014

"track record" made me think of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJfauJmup24

rocao · June 2014

TheLoneTensor said:
@rocao‌, you're reaching all the way back to 2005, which since then, Lego has released about 5000 different things. The amount of Lego things that are on the "true" list are very low. If we were to pick out 500 things that are "true" since 2005, that would still be only 10% of what's been released, which reflects what I stated before when I wrote "most used sets will never sell more than they cost new, ever." I have yet to be dissuaded from that viewpoint.

My point was that the likelihood is somewhere between what you and Norlego stated. Unless, by your latest count, you meant that 500 things are "a few collectible sets".

rocao · June 2014

Also, even if we assume your 10% figure is correct, it doesn't take much discernment to make that figure rise considerably.

For instance, if we correctly identify that shipping costs are going to limit how much smaller sets appreciate, we can avoid them altogether. So, for this exercise, let's decide to invest in only sets with MSRP above $30.

If we would have done that with 2008 sets (most retired in 2010), we are in year 4 of their retirement. How did they do?

http://brickset.com/sets/query-1674

Of the 72 sets, according to Brickpicker data:
~60 are selling used for more than their MSRP
~10 are selling for less than their MSRP
Death Star hasn't retired yet :P

And if we were shrewd enough to stay away from Bionicle, it's more like 5 of 72 sets aren't beating MSRP.

Pitfall69 · June 2014

mountebank said:
"track record" made me think of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJfauJmup24

Anyone that was born in the 2000's probably never had a record player :)

...or have no idea what this is.

TheLoneTensor · June 2014

We're just going to have to agree to disagree, because if you fence off specific subsets of data, and ignore factors like how used has a very big range of condition, then sure, you can polish up any pig and win a ribbon.

Norlego · June 2014

If you are buying to sell for fun like the OP is thinking of then you would consider buying "suitable" sets. You would dismiss small sets and "odd" themes. Then you will be left with not a massive amount of lego to choose from. With many big sets like the creator houses and trains you would not make a loss. Of course the lego and box needs to be in good nick.

rocao · June 2014

I'm not really ignoring factors as much as I'm trusting Brickpicker data to be accurate. Yes, the condition will vary, but just as there will be sets that show wear there will also be used sets that are pristine.

At some point this discussion was whether or not the OP should build a set or leave it unopened for profit. The claim was that he could build it, and still eventually sell it as used for profit. I would expect the owner in that situation to keep the set in good shape. Additional claims have been added about purchasing used job lots in general. In that case, I am expecting the reseller to exercise some amount of judgement to not buy sets in horrible condition if the aim is to resell them. I think those are both fair expectations to ensure condition wouldn't submarine the Brickpicker data used for analysis here.

Slow day at work, and since you won't allow me to exclude sets like Tiny Turbo racers (even though common reselling sense would) I expanded the analysis to include all sets from 2008 with MSRP $1+. Here is the query: http://brickset.com/sets/query-1675

186 sets, and according to BrickPicker:
~163 sets are selling in used condition above MSRP
~22 sets are selling in used condition below MSRP
and a Death Star in a pear tree

I'm still not seeing the hopeless minefield of duds that you're asserting.

CCC · June 2014

How are the stats for 2010, the year of the infamous Construct-a-Zurg?

I wonder if 2008 was just too early in the number of resellers growth period, so used sets have done reasonably well if new ones were not hoarded as much as now. I don't know if the cut-off year(s) for large number of stocked sets can be pinpointed exactly, but I think the game has changed since 2008.

Pitfall69 · June 2014

@rocao‌

Have you figured out how much those sets are selling for in Hungrystan? ;)

LegoFanTexas · June 2014

bobabricks said:
If I was jumping in a Delorean and going backin time I would be going back to 2003 to get some Cloud Cities or maybe the 80's to get some sealed space stuff ;P

I don't know about the rest of you, but I'd go forward a week and find out the next set of winning PowerBall numbers.

Then I would just give away all my extra LEGO to FairyBricks. :)

FollowsClosely · June 2014

TheLoneTensor said:
...My contention is still this, I think most used sets will never sell more than they cost new, ever. I believe that even if you merely break the seal on anything, you won't be able to sell it for more than "new cost"/RRP/MSRP except for a few collectible sets...

@TheLoneTensor
I agree that a good majority of sets sold will never fetch more than MSRP once opened. Its a small number, say 15-20% of sets sold will fetch more than MSRP after three years. That is because the most popular sets sold are redone every few years. However, I can flip that number around and claim that only 15% of the new sets I invest in don't double what I paid in two years. After three years the used ones are double my paid price. Most winners are obvious to the AFOL.

P.S. I need to go hide my pile of #9467 Ghost Train.

TheLoneTensor · June 2014

Sorry @rocao‌ you're not convincing me, because I don't trust your sources. I also don't have the slightest bit of interest to invest in the time to convince you otherwise. Let's make a date to meet back here in three years and see how well a used, played with #79111 is doing on the open market, assuming all the parts can be found.

Jingle all the way.

rocao · June 2014

LOL. So, since I expanded my example in response to your accusation of cherry-picking data, your argument shifts to not trusting the source of the data?

The numbers I used were from Brickpicker. The value presented is an average, so yes, any given transaction will deviate a bit. But from my overall experience, the number is quite a good approximation. You're welcome to pull a set from the list and demonstrate how wildly inaccurate the data is, though.

Oh, right, you don't have the slightest bit of interest to invest the time to provide your own data, right?

Well, being my ever-accommodating self, I tried it for you. I skipped over the sets I thought that you might dismiss as one of the "few collectible sets" and settled upon 7734 Cargo Plane, which is just a plane in the ho-hum City line, and there's even been a newer Cargo plane introduced since to threaten its aftermarket value.

MSRP was $49.99
Brickpicker is showing a used value of $84.47
Bricklink has a historical average of $78.16
And here is a link to the raw data of eBay sold listings of used sets: http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sacat=0&_from=R40&LH_ItemCondition=4&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_nkw=lego+7734&_sop=16

There are 20 listings that are 100% with instructions. The cheapest one went for $53.01. The others all went for higher, with the highest one being $104.

By the way, for well over half the sets I checked, the amount of appreciation was very high (50%+), and should easily outstrip any margin of error in Brickpicker's algorithm. Moreover, for the sets that were not above MSRP the margin it fell short was much smaller (-20% or less).

rocao · June 2014

TheLoneTensor said:
Let's make a date to meet back here in three years and see how well a used, played with #79111 is doing on the open market, assuming all the parts can be found.

My 2nd post in this thread discussed #79111 specifically, and I said that due to the wide availability of the set at a discount, it wasn't a good target for aftermarket profit, so you're not even attacking a position that I'm defending.

I like bets though, so how about we go by your statement of 10% of used sets appreciating beyond MSRP, and kissing money goodbye with the other 90%?

I pick 10 sets that have just retired, and in three years time, if one (10%) or none are selling for more than MSRP in used condition, you win. If two or more are, I win. Let me know how much you'd like to wager and we can set up escrow. I'd recommend at least the cost of a milkshake if you want to make a date out of it.

rocao · June 2014

CCC said:
How are the stats for 2010, the year of the infamous Construct-a-Zurg?

I went with 2008 because most of the sets from that year retired in 2010, which has given it 3 seasons in the aftermarket. Most of the 2010 sets have only had 1 or 2 holiday seasons.

I just took a cursory glance at all sets from 2010 that are retired and are $100+ (I left off 7939 and 7938 since they just retired this month).

14 sets total:
11 sets selling used above MSRP
3 sets selling below MSRP

Those three are #8078 Portal of Atlantis, #8404 Public Transport , and #10215 Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter, which any reseller worth their salt or even just a casual follower of this forum should know were widely available for 35%-50% off, so it isn't a surprise that these don't measure up.

I welcome any one else doing a more in-depth analysis if they don't like mine.

Pitfall69 · June 2014

^It's Hoth Han all over again :)

Licenced sets generally sell more "used" than what their RRP was while still in production. A good portion of non licenced themes can sell for more than their RRP. The Constitution Train may very well sell for more than it was at full retail price, even though it was heavily discounted. How much more; we will see in 3 years :)

BrickDancer · June 2014

*Popcorn* It's a showdown at high noon.

tamamahm · June 2014

SuperTramp said:
If i was Natebw i'd ignore nearly all this thread. probably the most complicated and confusing thread ive read on the internet.

I think he is too busy playing with a cool new train to pay attention to this thread. ;-)

samiam391 · June 2014

Pitfall69 said:
^It's Hoth Han all over again :)

Licenced sets generally sell more "used" than what their RRP was while still in production. A good portion of non licenced themes can sell for more than their RRP. The Constitution Train may very well sell for more than it was at full retail price, even though it was heavily discounted. How much more; we will see in 3 years :)

Speaking of which, is the time up on that wager? I'm ready to collect my winnings.

Pitfall69 · June 2014

samiam391 said:

Pitfall69 said:
^It's Hoth Han all over again :)

Licenced sets generally sell more "used" than what their RRP was while still in production. A good portion of non licenced themes can sell for more than their RRP. The Constitution Train may very well sell for more than it was at full retail price, even though it was heavily discounted. How much more; we will see in 3 years :)

Speaking of which, is the time up on that wager? I'm ready to collect my winnings.

I think it is this December correct?

samiam391 · June 2014

Pitfall69 said:

samiam391 said:

Pitfall69 said:
^It's Hoth Han all over again :)

Licenced sets generally sell more "used" than what their RRP was while still in production. A good portion of non licenced themes can sell for more than their RRP. The Constitution Train may very well sell for more than it was at full retail price, even though it was heavily discounted. How much more; we will see in 3 years :)

Speaking of which, is the time up on that wager? I'm ready to collect my winnings.
I think it is this December correct?

I can wait...

http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=5000063-1

http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=5001621-1

:o)

Pitfall69 · June 2014

^Is it possible that Hoth Han sucks so bad that it might decline in value?

CCC · June 2014

Anyway, all the talk of beating RRP or not. Surely most resellers care about price paid and profit vs that rather than RRP. I have a few sets that I will be more than happy if they only make 75% RRP, since I paid only 10-15% RRP.

Natebw · June 2014

TheLoneTensor said:
Sorry @rocao‌ you're not convincing me, because I don't trust your sources. I also don't have the slightest bit of interest to invest in the time to convince you otherwise. Let's make a date to meet back here in three years and see how well a used, played with #79111 is doing on the open market, assuming all the parts can be found.

Jingle all the way.

Deal. :)

Bumblepants · June 2014

How do you know when to jump into selling?

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