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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    @littlepuppi has a point. There seems to be no ceiling for the value that now-adult Star Wars fans will pay for collectibles. Since this generation is going to be earning more and more for awhile to come, the SSD will likely do well in the aftermarket - OVER TIME. And it's clearly a ship that LEGO wouldn't make again within the next 10 years.

    I say this, regardless of my personal belief that its just a box of gray bricks, and the feeling that we are in a "LEGO reseller bubble."
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    prevere said:

    Getting 2x rrp for many recent sets ($150 and up) is going to be tough when you're trying to flip in 12 months. IS and DA are perfect examples. Widely seen as can't miss, both are longer-term investments at this point. You make more money flipping smaller sets. But if you don't mind stashing away for 5 years, you'll get 2x rrp.

    I say this as a full participant in both the IS and DA countdowns.

    The risk with holding any Lego set for 5 years is that TLG releases another similar set. Then you get to hold it even longer. ;-)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    Dad said:

    ^Thing with the SSD is it's cost prohibitive to many people at rrp. I've never been as unsure about a set as I am this one, so I aren't diving in. If it does very well then it's the one that got away.

    My exact sentiments regarding the SSD! If I was a betting man, I would say that it will do well...maybe even extremely well. However, it's one set that never floated my boat as they say...kind of like a set of Darth Maul's bust.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    I think the alleged bubble is slowed though by retail's entry in selling over retail post retirement (especially TRU and Amazon). This is major factor why I buy less and less sealed sets to resell.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Agree, im a 5 year holder when I stash, thats how I roll.. If they go 2 or more x RRP quicker than that, I just dust them off sooner :D

    Harry Potter is probably where that has happened most recently... And fire Brigade.. Only bought 2 FB's though so keeping them much longer..
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited June 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^How is the Imperial Shuttle doing? I can't even get 2x RRP for it.

    SW used to be such a bankable theme.....until the influx of resellers changed the secondary market. If you bought it at a decent discount (sub $200) you should be getting double your money now. It will sell easily for $500 USD this xmas so no worries there. TLG limits and bans should help out some going forward with the exclusives.

    Plenty more SSD stock on the way to the USA. Just remember once you get to a high price point it becomes very difficult to move volume if you are a reseller. The sweet spot is where the $$$$ are in this game.

    FollowsClosely
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    So the SSD isn't retiring yet?
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^How is the Imperial Shuttle doing? I can't even get 2x RRP for it.

    No way can you get 2 x RRP for it. But I managed to get 2 x what I paid for most of them and that was straight cash, no fees. The sweet thing about the IS was that Amazon.com sent me a free one. Happy days!!

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,354
    Dad said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^How is the Imperial Shuttle doing? I can't even get 2x RRP for it.

    No way can you get 2 x RRP for it. But I managed to get 2 x what I paid for most of them and that was straight cash, no fees. The sweet thing about the IS was that Amazon.com sent me a free one. Happy days!!

    Hahahaha. Yeah, that's pretty good :) My question was rhetorical of course. I managed to get mine on sale as well, but still can't really shift any for more than $415. I don't see the SSD going for $800-1,000.

    FollowsClosely
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813
    ^ It was legitimate too!! I had a slightly damaged one and with the online chat they said send it back but I had to pay postage and they would then reimburse me. Once I explained how much it was they just said ' forget it, keep that one and we'll send another out' I did pay customs charges on it which I wasn't supposed to but I wasn't going to start moaning about that. I'm pretty fair sometimes! Absolute maximum of 5 SSD's for me.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup they have great C/S. But, I'm beginning to see why they have yet to turn a profit. :-)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    edited June 2014
    I think I was one of the last couple of people to get an IS before it sold out at Amazon (during the infamous IS countdown here in this thread). Unfortunately it arrived with some box cutter damage, so I contacted Amazon and they knocked off 10%. I would have preferred 27%, but these days you take Lego discounts where you can get them.
    FollowsCloselydougtshoyatablesTheLoneTensorMathBuilderrichl
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,354
    ^I too bought one during the countdown. I didn't care if I got it on sale or not because it was going to be my personal copy.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    It may not go for 2x rrp yet, but it's worth it. Such an awesome dispaly.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,354
    prevere said:

    It may not go for 2x rrp yet, but it's worth it. Such an awesome dispaly.

    The ship itself is very elegant. I have seen it on display and it is pretty awesome.

  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    Punctually with appearing of the new city trains the #7939 yellow Cargo Train is listed with "Call to check product availability" at [email protected] US
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    edited June 2014
    ^^Yep...we built the copy that came with the box cutter damage. In fact, I like this set more than any other UCS that I've build (note: I haven't built the MF). My son got the B-Wing during the May the 4th sale last year, but even he agrees that the IS is so much better. I'm confident the IS will appreciate very well over the next couple of years.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    Demand for that one is eternal, supply is not.
    FollowsClosely
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    Just saw the theme mentioned elsewhere, but what is the consensus on the Dino themed sets? Anyone have any experience or thoughts on this particular theme?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,495
    edited June 2014
    Between 1.0 and 1.5 rrp until better Dinos come along. Based on experience selling six small to medium sets. They took a while to shift as there don't seem to be that many buyers for them.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,029
    I've always thought the Dino's themselves might be fun to include in a MOC but the pieces in and of themselves, albeit the sets as a whole, never had a lot of appeal for me.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    ^ and ^^ Both your comments make complete sense to me. I grabbed a few different Dino sets because a) they were on sale, and b) they were a bit different from the usual Lego sets. Dino strikes me as the type of theme that is interesting, but completely overlooked. I guess it may take some movie company releasing another Jurassic Park type movie to drive any interest...and then TLG will just release another round of dinosaur sets.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,871
    I bought pretty much all of the Dino sets I could find at 50% off from WalMart the day after Christmas a couple of years ago. The #5887 in particular did fabulous at that price as did the #5886. I haven't tried selling any of the others, but I'm not too worried about it. I more than made up what I spent on those two sets alone. Everything else is just gravy. The two large sets though were no brainers for me... every kids likes T-Rex.
    FollowsClosely
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096

    I guess it may take some movie company releasing another Jurassic Park type movie to drive any interest...and then TLG will just release another round of dinosaur sets.

    Well it looks like the sets are doing just fine. Dino HQ is going for over 2x RRP currently. I never found them on clearance though.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    ^I just checked and I have one Dino HQ that I purchased from a Lego store for 10% off and a couple of the smaller Dino Ambush Attack sets that I got for probably $8 each from Amazon. The piece count isn't great for the Dino HQ, but there are some interesting figures including the T-Rex. Who knows, I may end up just holding on to them or trading them off for something I want more.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I honestly thought the triceratops set would appreciate more. It's the only set with one in it, and who doesn't love a triceratops?
    Bumblepantsbrickupdatepharmjod
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    mathew said:

    I guess it may take some movie company releasing another Jurassic Park type movie to drive any interest...and then TLG will just release another round of dinosaur sets.

    Well it looks like the sets are doing just fine. Dino HQ is going for over 2x RRP currently. I never found them on clearance though.
    2x? How about 3.5x on Amazon now. Dino HQ has been a monster gainer, even moreso than the last HP Hogwarts castle, given its later EOL, lower MSRP, and the fact that is was much easier to obtain for 50% off than the castle. Is there a $100+ set that has appreciated more in just 1.5 years from EOL in recent years? Dino HQ is in rare company...
    Pitfall69pharmjod
  • DraugDraug CanadaMember Posts: 34
    edited June 2014
    So the #10221 Super Destroyer has gone up 20% on BrickLink in the past week or so. Its about 20% higher than the $500 CDN rrp now.

    This and the #10197 FB are the only sets I've watched go EOL lately. Is the quick spike common? Does the price generally drop back down after a quick bubble? Or is $600 CDN the new floor price?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,245
    The FB is a Fire Station, and you have people buying in hopes of selling them for more later.
    I would not consider FB as the new norm for anything.
    I think when GE goes that is when you will see real numbers as to what effect a Mod being out for 5 years is.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,354

    The FB is a Fire Station, and you have people buying in hopes of selling them for more later.
    I would not consider FB as the new norm for anything.
    I think when GE goes that is when you will see real numbers as to what effect a Mod being out for 5 years is.

    Hey now. I said that a few days ago. Stop stealing my thunder :)

    There's always a quick spike when a set goes EOL. Unfortunately, people looking for a quick buck sell too early after the spike and that's when prices start to level out.

    rancorbait
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Can we please do with "who doesn't love a triceratops?" what happened with 27%?

    cc: @‌TheLoneTensor
    pharmjodbinaryeye
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    .
    Draug said:

    This and the #10197 FB are the only sets I've watched go EOL lately. Is the quick spike common? Does the price generally drop back down after a quick bubble? Or is $600 CDN the new floor price?

    If it is a set that appeals to the masses the price will not drop back down. Otherwise a quick spike followed by falling prices can certainly happen - remember the crawler? I know a a guy in the UK who sure does.

    FollowsClosely
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,938
    Bandit said:

    mathew said:

    I guess it may take some movie company releasing another Jurassic Park type movie to drive any interest...and then TLG will just release another round of dinosaur sets.

    Well it looks like the sets are doing just fine. Dino HQ is going for over 2x RRP currently. I never found them on clearance though.

    2x? How about 3.5x on Amazon now. Dino HQ has been a monster gainer, even moreso than the last HP Hogwarts castle, given its later EOL, lower MSRP, and the fact that is was much easier to obtain for 50% off than the castle. Is there a $100+ set that has appreciated more in just 1.5 years from EOL in recent years? Dino HQ is in rare company...

    Yowsers. That is one set I would not have fathomed would go up so much. I bought that at 50% and still have it in sealed in box.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    Dinosaurs are an very kid-centric theme that don't come around very often, which has to be good for post-EOL prices. And apparently any dinosaur set with a T-Rex can't go wrong.
    pharmjod
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    Apparently any dinosaur set with a T-Rex can't go wrong.

    If lovin' a T-Rex is wrong I don't wanna be right.

    Pitfall69LegoManiaccbrickupdateTheLoneTensorFarmer_JohnrichlGothamConstructionCo
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,284
    pharmjod said:

    The two large sets though were no brainers for me... every kids likes T-Rex.

    I thought the same. Dino Attack, the previous incarnation, appreciated nicely, particularly #7477 T-1 Typhoon vs. T-Rex. The price came down a bit when the 2012 Dino theme was released, but I still see them sell for 3-4x MSRP from time to time.

  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Just wondered about people's thoughts about Minecraft, I have only previously bought any of the Lego Idea's (CUUSOO) sets to build myself, and I don't play the game or have kids of the game playing age to advise me on how cool the sets are... I have 2 of the first Minecraft sets #21102 MISB and unsure whether to stock and save further or cut my losses now and swap or sell for something I would like more.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    bp10030 said:

    Punctually with appearing of the new city trains the #7939 yellow Cargo Train is listed with "Call to check product availability" at [email protected] US

    Now both train sets are listed as sold out. (#7938 and #7939)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,245
    edited June 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    The FB is a Fire Station, and you have people buying in hopes of selling them for more later.
    I would not consider FB as the new norm for anything.
    I think when GE goes that is when you will see real numbers as to what effect a Mod being out for 5 years is.

    Hey now. I said that a few days ago. Stop stealing my thunder :)

    There's always a quick spike when a set goes EOL. Unfortunately, people looking for a quick buck sell too early after the spike and that's when prices start to level out.

    Well if we want to get all technical about it I was one of the very few a year ago saying FB would likely rise when it is gone because it is a Modular Fire station, and I recall many saying it would not do anything once it is gone due to the volumes of it out there. Now 6 months and 250-300 dollars later I think we know the answer. Now will it go beyond this number around Christmas and be more like 300-350 once those hording masses of these start trying to unload them? Who knows.

    Just wondered about people's thoughts about Minecraft, I have only previously bought any of the Lego Idea's (CUUSOO) sets to build myself, and I don't play the game or have kids of the game playing age to advise me on how cool the sets are... I have 2 of the first Minecraft sets #21102 MISB and unsure whether to stock and save further or cut my losses now and swap or sell for something I would like more.

    My opinion is that Minecraft profit taking is done. Unless stocks happen to run out again around Christmas and drive the prices up, but I do not see that re-occurring. I think LEGO learned from that mistake. Plus I do ont see these ending production anytime soon esepcially if LEGO has an agreement to make minfig scale sets for Minecraft.
    bp10030 said:

    bp10030 said:

    Punctually with appearing of the new city trains the #7939 yellow Cargo Train is listed with "Call to check product availability" at [email protected] US

    Now both train sets are listed as sold out. (#7938 and #7939)
    Yeah, noticed this is the case at most stores online as well, though Walmart still appears to have the yellow cargo trains in stock for $174.99 USD

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    cloaked7 said:

    If lovin' a T-Rex is wrong I don't wanna be right.

    Substitute in "Lego" for "a T-Rex" and both me and Barbara Mandrell agree with you...at least that's what she told me the other day when we were talking about Lego.
    cloaked7
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949

    ...
    Well if we want to get all technical about it I was one of the very few a year ago saying FB would likely rise when it is gone because it is a Modular Fire station, and I recall many saying it would not do anything once it is gone due to the volumes of it out there. Now 6 months and 250-300 dollars later I think we know the answer. Now will it go beyond this number around Christmas and be more like 300-350 once those hording masses of these start trying to unload them? Who knows.
    ...

    @madforLEGO,
    Yes I as well. "It is a fire station" I kept preaching. I have already sold a bunch of them for double what I paid. I will be unloading all but a dozen of them this Christmas. The FB was a no risk investment for me.
    I also like the GE (not as much as FB), it is a safe bet for sure.
    Farmer_JohnMilne44madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,245
    So, it appears that #10228 is now missing from Amazon and TRU. Still At LEGO, Walmart, and Target though. Wonder if this will make it to the end of the year?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    It will be back at Amazon once they figure out they can't ship it in a plastic bag to their customers lol.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,085
    I just sold a used #10188 for $450.00 to someone in the USA. I went looking for it and found that it's gone from all major retailers. Lego.com (US) says "Out of stock, will ship in 30 days" but no definite date. Is this the beginning of the end of an 8 year run?
    FollowsClosely
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    ^ 6 year?
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,284
    edited June 2014
    ^^ You sold a used set for higher than MSRP? Congratulations, I hear that is as elusive as a unicorn sighting or 27% off exclusives.
    dougtsFollowsCloselyStormKitty
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    ecmo47 said:

    I just sold a used #10188 for $450.00 to someone in the USA. I went looking for it and found that it's gone from all major retailers. Lego.com (US) says "Out of stock, will ship in 30 days" but no definite date. Is this the beginning of the end of an 8 year run?

    You totally ripped off that poor schmuck. Does he not live near a Lego Store? Does he not understand that he can still order it from [email protected]?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    rocao said:

    ^^ You sold a used set for higher than MSRP? Congratulations, I hear that is as elusive as a unicorn sighting or 27% off exclusives.

    Well we did see 43% off Tower Bridge recently so 27% is no longer something to crow (or cry) about.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,354
    Truth.
    rocaoBumblepantsminicoopers11Rainstorm26StormKitty
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