RedBaron: Request Valuation on Grand Carousel

RedBaron · January 2014

I have an opportunity to trade for a new, but open box Grand Carousel #10196. The owner wants 5 sets in return:

#10188
#4195
#10231
#10197
#10214

He has valued the set at $1,300.00. All the bags are sealed, and based on the pictures and his description, all pieces, power functions, and instructions are included. The only issue is the box is open, with a slight ding on one corner.

The DS and TB are no problem since they are still available. What I can't decide is the upside potential for the other three. I don't think QAR is a big issue since it is not an exclusive, but SE and FB might make the deal not worth it.

I would appreciate any thoughts about the value of this trade.

Thanks.

dougts · January 2014

well, it's $200 below the lowest bricklink new price, so that seems reasonable. But it's also $300 over the lowest used price. do you plan on opening and building it, or trying to hold it and sell later?

if the former, I'd suggest just looking into a used one that is complete. If it's the latter, the open box is a pretty big hit on value so I would probably pass.

bobabricks · April 2014

@dougts Are the prices the other way around because never have I seen a used set more expensive than a new set.

lfty888 · June 2014

Yes.... pretty frickin' expensive and he wants to swap for those 5 sets??? naahhh... pls pass... :)

jack_bricks · June 2014

way too much for what I would trade for or buy it - prices are just going bonkers at the moment.

FollowsClosely · June 2014

Don't trade all that. There are some great sets that you are trading low on. If you really want to build/own the GC, then buy a used one and hold it a while. you can always sell later.

msanders · June 2014

I wouldn't trade. Honestly, you can buy the pieces separately for much less than this price. Granted the sound brick, stickers and canopy will be hard to source but in any case the reviews aren't exactly glowing for the set (falls apart, doesn't turn etc etc). In my opinion the sets that they want for trade are far better than this one set!

scrumper · June 2014

I suspect that @RedBaron‌ would have reached a decision sometime in February. :o)

FollowsClosely · June 2014

Oh, point valid:)

RedBaron · June 2014

Yes, the decision was made in February. I appreciate everyone's comments. Just in case anybody is wondering, I did make the deal, but night exactly as above. I changed out #10197 for #10228. Many of you will say that is just as bad, but let me tell why I went through with the trade:

1. Three of the sets I traded are still available.
2. It allowed me to acquire the set without using cash.
3. I remember standing in front of the Carousel at the Lego store in 2009
thinking I would never be able to own it, and then kicking myself for not getting it.
4. I think (hope) I can sell it for the value I traded if I decide not to build it myself.

This will probably turn out to be not such a great deal, but I can live with that for now.

rocao · June 2014

It's a little unclear to me if your motivation was as a collector, reseller, or some combination of the two.

I don't think your end of the deal was bad at all. The market valuation of $1300 was fair for #10196, and that was the value of your combined sets, using MSRP for the ones still in production. If you were able to acquire the sets below MSRP, your side of the trade was that much better.

Since April, the Grand Carousel has appreciated more than #10231 and #4195 combined, so your side has only improved. When all the sets do retire, it's very likely the scale will start to tip towards the other side, but that could be at least a couple years from now.

If your primary interest is as a collector, the fact that it's much easier to re-acquire the group of sets than it is #10196 points to your decision being wise.

RedBaron: Request Valuation on Grand Carousel

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