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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I would suspect a lot of the people selling on ebay at very low margins ($1-2) are people that are just trying to exit the game and unload inventory.....
    FollowsCloselypharmjod
  • luckie_reubsluckie_reubs Member Posts: 299
    Well, if any of you guys want to unload a "Two Face Chase", I'll be happy to consider taking it off your hands.
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    I think the bigger concern should be over-saturation and market fatigue. People can only buy so many lego sets a year for so many years before running out of space. When LEGO stops expanding and opening new stores it will be a sign the party is over.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,246
    Not sure what other thread to ask this in but has anyone see the Parisian modular for sale *BY* amazon yet? Is this a normal "no yet able to sell" period for them?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2014
    I agree with your points except the economy. 2008-2010 was much worse than this.

    That said, TLG has done a fantastic job of alienating the AFOL.
    dougtsFollowsCloselyjuggles7pharmjodtamamahmjasorMatthew
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^ Another thought is that TLG has seen some of the exorbitant prices resellers are getting for EOL'd sets and now wants a piece of that action. If nothing else, they may erroneously believe they can get more for a large set; hence the lack of discounts. Pretty stupid way of doing business, but it's possible that some manager is thinking this way as a way to increase their revenue. I can think of a dozen reasons not to take this approach, but I've seen managers make stupider decisions over my career...
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Great points, and thank you @LegoFanTexas for the response. I remember hearing years ago, some number that represented how much AFOLs makeup of the overall LEGO revenue. It was a tiny percentage, and I have no way of knowing if it was true. To me, the success of the LEGO movie only underscores this - kids are rabid about LEGO and it is only growing. Just look at the task that the owners of the Star Wars IP have in "satisfying" adult fans. It's an impossible task, as fans are fickle, as are resellers who are partly judging "good decisions" as "decisions that grow my personal profit." This is NOT a dis to resellers. But it seems logical to me that it would be a biased viewpoint. EG:
    "What is good for me , the reseller, is good for the overall LEGO economy, because I am an essential cog in the machine, where value is created. For me."
    TheLoneTensor
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119

    Great points, and thank you @LegoFanTexas for the response. I remember hearing years ago, some number that represented how much AFOLs makeup of the overall LEGO revenue. It was a tiny percentage, and I have no way of knowing if it was true. To me, the success of the LEGO movie only underscores this - kids are rabid about LEGO and it is only growing. Just look at the task that the owners of the Star Wars IP have in "satisfying" adult fans. It's an impossible task, as fans are fickle, as are resellers who are partly judging "good decisions" as "decisions that grow my personal profit." This is NOT a dis to resellers. But it seems logical to me that it would be a biased viewpoint. EG:
    "What is good for me , the reseller, is good for the overall LEGO economy, because I am an essential cog in the machine, where value is created. For me."

    Hahahaha. 99% of the time, what is good for resellers is bad for LEGO as a whole.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2014
    ^ Hahahaha?

    I'm not sure you realize it, but you just made a flippant, unsubstantiated and arguably wrong comment.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    edited May 2014


    I concur.
    TheLoneTensorBrickarmorpharmjodMilne44jasor
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Oops! Apologies if my last comment was offensive or rubbed anyone the wrong way. That was not my intention, at all. I'll gladly delete it if that makes everyone else feel better. (seriously)

    I suppose where I was coming from is that my entire life, I have been close to reselling communities of various sorts. And I'm familiar with the ebb and flow of it; of the individual resellers' reliance on larger marketplaces (ebay and amazon); and the complaints that come along with that. That there can be a euphoria when markets are good, and blame when markets are bad. Also, with what pulls people into the market to become resellers, and what often pushes people out.

    Is it JUST my experience observing this for several decades? Yep.
    Sorry if I offended, the moderator can feel free to remove the comment if it wasn't in the spirit of the forum
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    @brickupdate the comments that @TheLoneTensor and I made were not towards your post.
    TheLoneTensorbrickupdate
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119

    ^ Hahahaha?

    I'm not sure you realize it, but you just made a flippant, unsubstantiated and arguably wrong comment.

    You're taking things too seriously.


    @brickupdate‌ This thread is hopelessly off-topic most of the time. A bit more noise can't hurt.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    So is there anything going on with May the 4th besides 15% off and minifig.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    ^What 15% off?
    TheLoneTensor
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    Weren't a bunch of the Star Wars sets on sale?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    ^Hahahaha. I'm sorry, but that was good. I was having a ho-hum night; that laugh helped out a lot
    Bumblepants
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2014
    flyingpig said:

    ^ Hahahaha?

    I'm not sure you realize it, but you just made a flippant, unsubstantiated and arguably wrong comment.

    You're taking things too seriously.
    Perhaps, but honestly, I think maybe you're taking things too lightly. There has been some very-recent openness with regards to some long-standing people around here with regards to changes in their life that are basically being forced upon them due to some moves by Lego. Nobody wants this to happen to them; they love the hobby and it made them some bucks, and they provided a service to folks as a result. Now it's really a pain in the ass, and what this means is that consumers down the road will have to pay extraordinary prices for sets they missed out on. Think it's expensive to pick up an Emerald Night for $250? If Lego had started their discount embargo a couple years prior, you'd likely see a $500 price tag on it today.

    For you to come in to what is the only true reseller thread and a) laugh and b) oversimplify, implying that there isn't anything good for Lego that comes from the reseller market (there certainly is), is a bit off-putting.

    I'm sorry that I feel the way I do. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but it's really true that I do, indeed take that kind of thing seriously.
    madforLEGOVaderX
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    On the "Discontinuing Sets" topic, a few Star Wars sets sold out...yawn. Sorry...aside from some of the larger SW sets, I've completely lost interest in that theme. Too many remakes and "clone wars" sets.
    Pitfall69LegoFanTexasFollowsCloselycloaked7Rennyjasor
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,479
    edited May 2014
    jcb193 said:

    I would suspect a lot of the people selling on ebay at very low margins ($1-2) are people that are just trying to exit the game and unload inventory.....

    I think some do it on purpose to try to undermine resellers. Some I think just do not understand the fees eBay imposes (and other sites). They think that if they sell something for 5 dollars over what they paid for it, then that is what they get.

    I see double standards by LEGO too. Like you can only get an Iron Patriot by buying the LEGO Marvel game via Walmart, but some guy mysteriously having like 50 of them on eBay (and by all accounts, not selling any of the games).
    Same with other such 'exclusive' figures where it is supposed to be one per household and yet there are people out there with 30-50 of them. I doubt they are really buying THAT much to get 30-50 of them if the stores they are going to adhere to what the rules are supposed to be. If so, you would think LEGO would crack down on it. I'm sure you will see people out there with 50 Darth Revans (if they are not out there already).
    You cannot compete against guys that have access to the backdoor of a LEGO factory, or access to loopholes.

    I think Darth Revan is the first time I have seen LEGO actually 'restrict' a minifigure give away (though only to SW purchases over 75 dollars), and even then NO consistency with enforcement as I have seen people make comments that they got a Revan with a little bit of SW LEGO and the rest regular LEGO at a store, or got two figures because they spent 150.. Be consistent LEGO!

    As for the exclusive sales ban, I have heard it was done to stop overseas buyers from buying cheaper here instead of in their countries. Hence punish the market where it occurs. I dunno if that is true or not but smacks cutting off ones nose to spite their face. It seems LEGO is doing that a lot lately. If this really is the case, how about making sets cheaper overseas and not punishing the US for being able to have sales or allow other retailers to put sets on sale? I guess LEGO thinks that people will magically start over-paying for their LEGO in other countries again, instead of just stopping their buying of those sets altogether. Again that is if this is the reason for only the US (apparently) to have these restrictions
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    edited May 2014
    I am waiting to see if any online buyers got more than one Revan per household. My purchase hasn't shipped yet, but I'm wondering if people have made multiple purchases hoping to get more than 1 Revan. I will not circumvent purchase limits just to get more Revans and the "sale" doesn't make me want to make another purchase to see if I get another Revan.
    LeGeneGo
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,852
    ^ I bought a Sandcrawler online on the 28th and got my Revan. It was always shown in the basket right through the ordering and paying process. If I log back into [email protected] now to make a qualifying purchase, Revan is not added to the basket. Doubt if anyone can get multiples online. Reliant on stores bending the rules in a gesture of goodwill for a large purchase or series of purchases is probably the only way to get more than one.TLG have nothing else out I want right now.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    edited May 2014
    Think it's expensive to pick up an Emerald Night for $250? If Lego had started their discount embargo a couple years prior, you'd likely see a $500 price tag on it today.

    ^^^^^
    Which begs the question, if casual resellers leave, and discounts are gone, does that lead to another renaissance of lego (insane prices for sets that people didn't stock up on) (Parisian café, Town Hall, Ewok Village, etc), or is the multitude of sets and rehashes enough to keep people from scooping up older sets in the future.

    I resell plenty of lego, but not a lot of older sets. Does anybody suspect who buys these? Who buys a series 1 Harry Potter castle, when there are better ones available? Completists? People that don't know better? Or investors? Once you get past all the major iconic investor sets (Taj Mahal, Falcon, Carousel, Trains), is the average old set doing well?

  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,246
    I made 4 online orders and Revan was added to all 4, but I've only received emails for 2 of the 4 so far and my first order with the #9515 is one of the ones I have not received and email for.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,479
    So did Revan show up in your emails for your orders?
    I guess it really will not matter until you get the shipping notifications to see if you are really getting more than one Revan. I do not think that just because it appears in the cart you are guaranteed to get one.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,479
    jcb193 said:

    Think it's expensive to pick up an Emerald Night for $250? If Lego had started their discount embargo a couple years prior, you'd likely see a $500 price tag on it today.

    ^^^^^
    Which begs the question, if casual resellers leave, and discounts are gone, does that lead to another renaissance of lego (insane prices for sets that people didn't stock up on) (Parisian café, Town Hall, Ewok Village, etc), or is the multitude of sets and rehashes enough to keep people from scooping up older sets in the future.

    I resell plenty of lego, but not a lot of older sets. Does anybody suspect who buys these? Who buys a series 1 Harry Potter castle, when there are better ones available? Completists? People that don't know better? Or investors? Once you get past all the major iconic investor sets (Taj Mahal, Falcon, Carousel, Trains), is the average old set doing well?


    Maybe that is what LEGO ultimately wants. That is to say if you miss out that is on you. You should have always been a fan of LEGO and bought the set, apparently even if you cannot afford it, were not born yet or too young to buy it yourself, and should have never stopped buying LEGO for a time.

    (I think again the exclusive ban is due to other reasons where LEGO is basically punishing the US market. I also say you bite the biggest hand that feeds you will regret it, but that is another rant altogether.)

    In the end there will ALWAYS be people that will want the old sets as long as they are exclusives or set people want of course (like trains/mods/ Death Stars/ etc). And with Demand and lesser supply comes greater prices.
    What this policy does is just make it easier for people to stash a couple away and turn around and make possible mad money on it relatively quickly. So there will be a brief delay in prices as you will likely have people move them to move them, but I think you are looking at higher prices in a quicker time frame. The question is will you be able to meet eBay requirements to sell on their precious site by then?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391

    So did Revan show up in your emails for your orders?
    I guess it really will not matter until you get the shipping notifications to see if you are really getting more than one Revan. I do not think that just because it appears in the cart you are guaranteed to get one.

    Last year, both my Hans showed up in cart and shipping notification emails, but I didn't receive any. I had to call customer service and they shipped two out right away.

    Now, I may have just found a loophole in the system because how does TLG know if I received the Hans or not? I guess they just took my word for it.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 866
    I suspect that most who buy older sets are not buying older versions when a new version is available. For example, no way would I track down an old Mos Eisley set with the new one coming out. And had the new Sail Barge or ISD been announced before I had picked up the older versions, I likely would have waited for the new versions (even though I think the older Sail Barge is aesthetically more attractive). For me, the fun is in the build and the minifigs, and it enjoy that experience just a little bit more with a new set.

    There are exceptions, to be sure. For example, I think I'm happier with the motorized AT-AT, even though a new one is on its way. But there would have to be a functional difference like that for me to go backwards.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    edited May 2014
    Why do people buy old cars when newer cars are so much more technologically advanced?

    You say that nobody is buying older sets because the new ones are "better". While this may be true, I'm always selling older Star Wars sets and minifigures. I also sell a lot of older Classic System sets. If nobody is buying older sets, who are these strange people giving me money for mine?
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,852
    madforLego: It may not be a case of TLG punishing US customers, more that they're treating them like the rest of us.

    The only advantage of being in the UK/EU from a TLG point of view seems to be release schedules. We're quite often a few weeks ahead of the US for new stuff (didn't the DS troopers battle pack take an age to get through to the US?).
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 866
    I said "most." Of course some people out there will collect older sets because they are completionists or collectors. Also, there is a difference between tracking down a beloved classic car and buying a beat up old Civic for two or three times the price of a brand new one.
    Pitfall69
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119

    flyingpig said:

    ^ Hahahaha?

    I'm not sure you realize it, but you just made a flippant, unsubstantiated and arguably wrong comment.

    You're taking things too seriously.
    Perhaps, but honestly, I think maybe you're taking things too lightly. There has been some very-recent openness with regards to some long-standing people around here with regards to changes in their life that are basically being forced upon them due to some moves by Lego. Nobody wants this to happen to them; they love the hobby and it made them some bucks, and they provided a service to folks as a result. Now it's really a pain in the ass, and what this means is that consumers down the road will have to pay extraordinary prices for sets they missed out on. Think it's expensive to pick up an Emerald Night for $250? If Lego had started their discount embargo a couple years prior, you'd likely see a $500 price tag on it today.

    For you to come in to what is the only true reseller thread and a) laugh and b) oversimplify, implying that there isn't anything good for Lego that comes from the reseller market (there certainly is), is a bit off-putting.

    I'm sorry that I feel the way I do. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but it's really true that I do, indeed take that kind of thing seriously.
    Okay, I'll bite.

    Why are low aftermarket prices for retired sets good for TLG? I assume this is the service you say resellers provide. I posit that high prices would encourage more sales of things that are in stock.

    TLG seems to have clearly decided resellers are not good for their business and followed through with reseller bans and eliminating online-only distributors. Why would they want to do this?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    graphite said:

    I made 4 online orders and Revan was added to all 4, but I've only received emails for 2 of the 4 so far and my first order with the #9515 is one of the ones I have not received and email for.

    I hope you get your #9515 set. It would reduce my Lego May the 4th sale cynicism a few notches...
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2014
    flyingpig said:

    Okay, I'll bite. Why are low aftermarket prices for retired sets good for TLG?

    You'll bite what? I wasn't baiting you.

    In any event. it's been discussed in this thread a few times. Suffice to say:

    1) people exit dark ages
    2) people then have money
    3) people buy sets they missed to catch up, or that they couldn't afford before
    4) people get hooked
    5) people buy the new sets

    The key step there is 3, because that's all about the passion, with budding afols reliving what they felt as a kid with the freedom to finally be able to buy the things they always wanted to as a kid (and not have it look weird, given that afols are socially acceptable). I hypothesize that if 3 didn't happen, then neither would 4 or 5. The Death Star may look sweet to Bob the proto-afol, but if Bob didn't have some other "Rosebud*" set to prime the pump, Bob probably would just simply pass.

    Ergo, when 4 and 5 eventually do happen, it's good for Lego.

    * Citizen Kane, look it up.
    madforLEGOBuriedinBricksZathrasRainstorm26jasor
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,246

    I hope you get your #9515 set. It would reduce my Lego May the 4th sale cynicism a few notches...

    My order status shows shipped for all 4 of my orders. Only 3 (not the 9515 one) sent shipped emails, and I still only got 2 order confirmation emails. Technology is great, when you keep up with it at least.

  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    So you theorize that resellers provide a way for proto-afols to get things they missed back in their childhood and therefore get back into LEGO. And further that if buying the sets from their childhood, NIB, was too expensive, they wouldn't buy the new sets instead (or buy used).

    Under this theory, how long is the typical dark age? 5+ years? 10+ years? Would resellers be expected to carry stock for that long? Do they? Is this your reselling strategy?

    Testing this theory, take a look at ebay/amazon/brickpicker and compare the sales volume for sets that retired 5+ years ago to sets that retired 1-2 years ago. Unless I'm missing something there is a whole lot more LEGO (and money) changing hands on recent sets...
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    One positive is that used Exclusive sets will hold their value. For example the UCS Sandcrawler is terribly overpriced but one can conceivably buy it, build it and then sell it down the road without much or any loss. Actually the exclusion hurts the average collector who holds onto sets the most.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    jcb193 said:

    Think it's expensive to pick up an Emerald Night for $250? If Lego had started their discount embargo a couple years prior, you'd likely see a $500 price tag on it today.

    This doesn't make a darn bit of sense. If Lego had banned discounts on exclusives before EN went EOL, it would mean that most resellers would have been buying them for between $10 and $25 more than they paid just prior to EOL. Do you really think that small of a price differential would have prevented so many sales that the price would be double what it is now? It might have cut some casual resellers out, but it wouldn't have dissuaded the ones who put away EN in huge numbers. I didn't stock up heavily on EN, but I would have bought just as many at $100 as I did at $90.

    This whole idea that no discounts on exclusives is some kind of game changer is preposterous. Profit on exclusives isn't made on the discount, it is made on the post-EOL appreciation. Anyone thinking there are fewer resellers putting away exclusives since the discount ban is deluding themselves. There just as many, if not more, resellers now as there were before the ban.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I think many of us are thinking that Lego is trying to put their hand in the aftermarket to keep prices high and give value to the brand I guess. I don't think they are trying to artificially create value, but rather they know there are plenty of resellers now that will have to compete much like eBay's customers are finding themselves having to compete more.

    I don't like being used as a scapegoat or at least blended in with people labeled as the cause for action. I don't like that the service many of us provide is neglected by TLG now. I know I'm not a bad person even if TLG says reselling is bad. It's the right of sale, and I honestly wouldn't be doing it if TLG provided a better service for getting retired sets. Maybe if they told me they were going to remake #10179 in 3 years when I e-mailed them oh so long ago instead of trying to sell me a #7965 I wouldn't have even bothered reselling a single set, but they proved to me what I should be doing that day.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    jcb193 said:

    Which begs the question, if casual resellers leave, and discounts are gone, does that lead to another renaissance of lego (insane prices for sets that people didn't stock up on) (Parisian café, Town Hall, Ewok Village, etc), or is the multitude of sets and rehashes enough to keep people from scooping up older sets in the future.

    PV, TH, and EV are unlikely to ever go up in price to the extent that CC, TM, and UCS Falcon did...

    There are more people in the game, sets are staying on the market longer, and LEGO appears to be producing more of them...

    This is one of the reasons I've left the business, the return on investment is no longer attractive, I would have to invest two to three times the money into inventory to get the same total dollar return each year. That much money is better used elsewhere.

    TLG made several business decisions, one of which was to try and edge out larger resellers. Another was to produce sets for longer periods of time to push out more inventory to the market and to keep aftermarket prices down a bit. Finally, they have produced so many different sets in the past 2 years, the reason to go back and buy the older sets is almost gone now.

    When I got back into LEGO, the "big sets" were fairly new and sets like UCS Falcon, TM, and GC had just retired. I missed a lot of big stuff by just a few months without knowing I had missed it, but most of it was the first or second run of "big stuff".

    Now we've had several runs of big stuff, TM came and went, before that we had ET, now we have TB, and finally SOH. At some point, the idea of collecting them all is just not reasonable, there is enough "good stuff" out there that few people will spend big buys buying up retired stuff.
    brickupdate
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Why do people buy old cars when newer cars are so much more technologically advanced?

    Nostalgia for the most part... but there is actually a market for older classics from the 70's and before...

    No one is running around paying premium prices for a 1993 used Honda Civic. :) Frankly, that is likely to be true in 20 years from now as well.

    We look at classic cars and think they were all classic, but actually most are not, most classic cars are scrap metal, junk that no one cares about. You can buy a lot of older cars, even in running condition, for next to nothing.

    Yes, a 1977 Corvette is going to be expensive in nice condition, but what about a 1977 Toyota Chaser?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Chaser#1st_Generation_.281977.E2.80.931980.29

    How about a 1977 Lincoln Versailles?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln_Versailles

    1977 Chrysler Sunbeam anyone?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysler_Sunbeam

    1977 Chrysler LeBaron?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysler_LeBaron#1977.E2.80.931981

    Yea, all scrap metal, no one cares... :)
    Pitfall69 said:

    You say that nobody is buying older sets because the new ones are "better". While this may be true, I'm always selling older Star Wars sets and minifigures. I also sell a lot of older Classic System sets. If nobody is buying older sets, who are these strange people giving me money for mine?

    In fairness, you can always find a buyer for just about anything, if you have limited supply.

    The total dollars being put into 1980s sets is likely quite small compared to the total dollars put into sets retired in the past 3 years. I have no numbers or facts to back that up, but I believe it.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    This whole idea that no discounts on exclusives is some kind of game changer is preposterous. Profit on exclusives isn't made on the discount, it is made on the post-EOL appreciation.

    Actually, I disagree...

    Profit is made on the difference between purchase price and the sale price after fees.

    I assure you that my Fire Brigades that were purchased for 25% off have made me far more profit than my copies purchased at full price. :)

    BTW, I just sold my last 3 copies of FB this week, I'm completely out of them now. Also empty of DS and SSD, sold my last SSD this week as well.

    It might well turn out that holding those for another 6 months might have made sense, time will tell.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332



    1) people exit dark ages
    2) people then have money
    3) people buy sets they missed to catch up, or that they couldn't afford before
    4) people get hooked
    5) people buy the new sets

    The key step there is 3, because that's all about the passion, with budding afols reliving what they felt as a kid with the freedom to finally be able to buy the things they always wanted to as a kid (and not have it look weird, given that afols are socially acceptable). I hypothesize that if 3 didn't happen, then neither would 4 or 5.

    A nice theory, but...How did we all get back into lego? There are very very few resellers holding lego from the mid 80s and 90s yet we all got to 4 and 5. I'm also guessing if you're holding stock from someone's childhood until they're earning plenty you're probably not reselling right. Also if you are holding it that long the loss of a 15% discount up front probably won't be too much of an issue.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,247
    I have to say I disagree with step 3 as well. I came out of dark ages and found there was so much good stuff on the market without going to EOL sets. After a about four years I have literally just bought my first of EOL sets, 3 that were all in the £15 region and the oldest of which was 2012.

    So for me the steps were

    1. Get given a SW advent calendar
    2. Buy a couple of CMFs and smaller sets
    3. Get hooked
    4. Go mad trying to get as many current CMFs/Minifigures from buying current sets as possible.
    5. Realise I was going a bit mad
    6. Focus collection on stuff that I really want but accepting that stuff that's missed is likely to beyond my price point on the aftermarket.

    The route for all collectors, budgets, biting points on prices is different for everyone. But I felt that building with any bricks was what bought back the childhood joy for me so I didn't need to go for childhood sets, and the only really significant sets I can really remember were an x-wing and a tie fighter which I'd much more likely buy newer versions (although I haven't felt the need to) than figure out exactly what sets they were and pay the inflated price. Some people would love to regain old sets like that but it's not for me.
    brickupdate
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,852

    Those things above are the biggest killers for resale. TLG have shown a willingness to redo sets that we all thought were one-offs. I wonder how many people have thought about dropping a pile of cash on a #10179 but are now putting it off because of those 2015 UCS MF redo rumours? If you only have to wait 2 years for the next republic gunship/AT-AT etc because you missed it, you might be less inclined to pay 3 x RRP for one in the meantime.

    Lego reincarnations are generally getting better too - who's going to pay daft money for the old one when the new one coming soon will be better?

    An instant 30% profit on current/very recently retired sets may be the way things go, when said sets can be got 1/2 price, but you've got to work a lot harder for the same money.

    brickupdate
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    Can't argue with pretty much everything @LFT said. As an outsider looking in the loss of exclusive discounts seems the least significant concern affecting resellers although it's indicative of lego generally making life harder. The increased variety of 'adult' sets and their increased time on the shelves seems a much bigger problem.

    Out of intetest would a rerelease of 10179 have a triple impact?

    1 Obviously what it would do to the 10179 prices.

    2 Create a long term suspicion that anything could be rereleased, removing investment potential and so lowering all top end prices.

    3 Temporarily dent almost all after market prices because everyone would be saving up / spending their budget on buying the new MF as a priority over everything else.
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    I remember fondly 7 years ago when I started collecting Lego....

    1. 1997, Bought a small SW set from Target (7667 Imperial Dropship).
    2. Bought more SW sets that were available.
    3. 1998, Ebay a couple of SW used retired sets. (For some reason I had to have Darth Maul).
    4. Discovered Brickset.
    5. 1999, Dug up my old Castle collection from the 80s.
    6. 2010, Bought Collectible Minifigures series 1.
    7. Discovered Bricklink.
    8. Bought and sold Collectible Minifigures series 1 from Bricklink to trade efficiently.
    9. Sold my old Castle Lego through Bricklink.
    10. Now, buy and sell Lego...

    For me, I was never interested in buying any of the sets from my childhood (i.e. Castle or Classic Space). The modern version were far more appealing. When I started collecting Lego SW in 1997, I decided I didn't want to collect the early pre-2005 sets because of the yellow skin.

    Now I'm going through my collection and selling off my SW pre-2010 because of all the rehashes and change in minifigure appearance (i.e. white pupils). Many of these used sets are worth less than retail. I remember a few years back, when you could at least get your money back...
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,340
    ^ how did you manage to buy a set in 1997 that was released in 2008 under the SW line that began in 1999 ;)
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,246
    ^ lol
  • vwong19vwong19 San DiegoMember Posts: 1,179
    I meant 2007... Off by a decade... ;)
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