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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    The Sopwith Camel was all about war, and the VW van was all about peace. There's something poetic in there.
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselyStormKittyYodaliciouscloaked7HarryPotterLoverjasor
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 765
    edited April 2014
    ^^ A wise purchase!
    Ariela
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    Just noticed that #10241 Maersk Triple-E is out of stock in US with an expected ship date of 6 July! I do not recall ever seeing a ship date more than 2 months away.

    I have also noticed that instead of "Sold Out", they are using "Temporarily out of stock" for sets like #10221 and #21050.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,108
    LEGO changes their own rules from time to time. Sometimes they put 'temporarily out of stock' sometimes they use 'on back order, will ship on XXXX date', Sometimes they use 'sold out'. In my experience, there really is no method as to when they need to make more. Other than if it says 'retired product' in which case it is likely gone for good (and even then it could come back, either as another set number or something else)
    Which reminds me, has anyone seen #60031 actually in store (at least in the US)? I have not seen this set. I see that according to the inventory that people own it but I have not seen it in the states.
  • BalloonistBalloonist Member Posts: 56
    10241 came back into stock on uk site yesterday
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439


    Which reminds me, has anyone seen #60031 actually in store (at least in the US)? I have not seen this set. I see that according to the inventory that people own it but I have not seen it in the states.

    Apparently it was only available in Scandinavia.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Because TLG has killed just about any chance to pick up Exclusive sets at a reduced price, one has to scheme accordingly based on the opportunities that do arise.

    I used the double VIP points deal to pick up non-Star Wars sets that I thought could be gone before the next VIP points deal in the October timeframe. Two sets came to mind...the Maersk Triple-E #10241 and the Metalbeard's SeaCow #70810. I realize both have been only out a short time, but the previous Maersk ship was gone in only 6 months. Personally, I'm not that impressed with the Triple-E, but I do like ships. The SeaCow is a big question for me since the movie hype is dying down, but the set does look like a fun build and I don't want to pay double RRP to get it if it's discontinued before October.

    Another Exclusive set on my list is the Parisian Restaurant, but I expect it will be around for at least a couple more years so I didn't pull the trigger. I may consider it during the October double VIP points sale, or just wait until BF to see what I can get it for then.

    Personally, this is the only way I can see to grab the larger sets...especially when 10% sales tax it tacked on top of the RRP.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    10%??
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yep...good ole Tennessee.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    Only 10%? Man, you Americans have it easy.
  • luckie_reubsluckie_reubs Member Posts: 299
    Gavin83 said:

    Only 10%? Man, you Americans have it easy.

    We get taxed at every other opportunity, though. At one point, we were still paying a tax set up to pay for the Spanish American War. We also have to pay our income taxes, and there are taxes on just about anything else you can image. Yet income inequality is still incredibly high, and there's no real healthcare for everyone. So, yeah, we've got it easy.
    DougoutTXLegoguy
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited April 2014
    ^I guess there are benefits to living in any country including the UK. For example, it's much easy to sack/fire/layoff/etc. a person in the USA than it is in the UK. Here, the manager can just wake up in a bad mood and terminate someone's employment. I've seen it happen. In the UK and other European countries, it's not that easy. I've worked for a French company for many years and when they need to reduce the workforce they focus on employees in the USA since it's so easy to do (compared to firing the French or other European employees). I've seen this happen too. It's much easier for an employed person to pay taxes (of any rate) than an unemployed person.

    But yes...I agree. Taxes in Europe are high.
    madforLEGOlego007TXLegoguy
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    ^ I've got an American Ops Director who has been here 3 years. He's just getting used to it!!
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,011
    I'm in the UK working for a UK site of a French company. Despite being far more efficient and cost effective than all of our French sites, we're getting made redundant and the site is closing. With a redundancy package of 2.5 years wages i'm not complaining though. The hierarchy is completely crooked and i've gone as high as I can in that company considering i'm not a Golf playing Mason. Lots of money for Lego when I leave and looking to get into the employment of a lot more transparent company.
    DougoutFarmer_John
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I'm glad I'm not the only one that realizes how much America pushes corporate interests at the expense of the people.
    madforLEGOlego007KanohiTXLegoguyMommaLa
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    America is one giant corporation. If you're in the top 10% then great. If you're in the bottom 10% there's a safety net as long as you can handle poor living conditions. If you're the other 80% then well you're basically screwed.
    madforLEGOKanohiDougoutTXLegoguyFarmer_Johnjasor
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,108
    edited April 2014
    Yeah, pretty bad here in the US. We have an economic message of 'sell your mother to make an extra buck' mantra in our markets here. But when we have all of our politicians in bed with the corporations, and NAFTA, these things happen.
    I used to work for a French company and I can confirm what is said above.. These companies are deathly afraid to lay off workers in France as the minute they hear of any such action they immediately strike.. If we tried that in the US it would be 'fine', you are fired and we will get to bring in one of 100 like you'.
    Also forgot the Supreme court here is laughable as well and have corp interests in mind more than the rights of Americans when they say ridiculous things like Money =free speech
    KanohiDougoutTXLegoguy
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^Yup, nailed it, bad market mantra, unions aren't as strong as they once were, and you can't fight corporations when they are viewed as people too but given more rights.
    TXLegoguy
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    This is why my wife and I self employed. I can't fire myself, but I can't give myself a raise either :)
    Dougout
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    mathew said:

    America is one giant corporation. If you're in the top 10% then great. If you're in the bottom 10% there's a safety net as long as you can handle poor living conditions. If you're the other 80% then well you're basically screwed.

    These "poor" living conditions are better than how most people in the world live. There are millions who would give anything just for a taste of that poor living conditions.
    pharmjod
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^^^^^^^^^^^ @LEGOFANTEXAS THEY'RE SINGING YOUR SONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Take off your Easter Bunny costume and get in here and pound out some dadgum line breaks!

    Or leave the costume on, whatever.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I refuse to take the blame for this latest tangent.
    brickupdateBumblepants
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,829
    I actually lost count of how many ^s there were. That's got to be the longest ever.
    Yellowcastle
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,829
    Ahhhh, it falls back to Gavin.
    Pitfall69Dougout
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited April 2014
    Ships seem to do rather well in the aftermarket. Pirate ships and the like do exceptionally well. With that said, I don't see the Sea Cow getting much wind in its sails. The Maersk Ship will probably do well, but I don't know if it will do as well as the Maersk Container Ships before it.

    Even though the Simpsons House is an obvious choice for resale, I still think it will do well in the aftermarket. The build was great and you could easily customize the house any way you'd like. What I am saying is, that it doesn't have to be The Simpsons House :) I'm buying several just for MOC's.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    mathew said:

    America is one giant corporation. If you're in the top 10% then great. If you're in the bottom 10% there's a safety net as long as you can handle poor living conditions. If you're the other 80% then well you're basically screwed.

    These "poor" living conditions are better than how most people in the world live. There are millions who would give anything just for a taste of that poor living conditions.
    Better than most? There are plenty of places in America that resemble worn torn Iraq: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-2-men-seriously-wounded-in-south-side-shooting-20140420,0,3822278.story
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited April 2014
    @LegoFanTexas is probably taking a break. I hope he returns soon. I need him to take some attention away from me :)

    Edit: ...but @Mathew is still around ;)
    KanohiFollowsClosely
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,036
    That's one thing I've noticed in the 8 years since I began pursuing this hobby online, that people seem to drift into the hobby and then drift right back out again. Life changes and financial struggles are consistently at fault but theres also this malaise that seems to set in for many of us. Either the chase gets old or we start to calculate how much money we've been spending on frivolity in conjunction with time spent away from doing the more important things in Life. And for our resellers, the saturation of new sellers and the loss of exclusive discounts probably nailed some coffins too. For some, this begins their next dark ages. I can only speak for myself but any wavering on my part have been short lived as LEGO has kept itself close to my heart with the modulars and CMF. Of course, we're apparently now getting the first non-modular building and CMF are both rising in price and straying in nature. :o)
    Farmer_JohnpharmjodPepperdougtsTXLegoguyemmtwosixjasor
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Thats definately true. I have drifted in and out of reselling this last 6 years. I bought my first sets in over 6 months yesterday when previously i was buying by the week previously. Its all down to the exclusive pricing policy and the increase in the cost of licensed themes which have been average at best.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Why does everyone seem to think that the lack of discounts on exclusives has driven resellers from the market?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    That's one thing I've noticed in the 8 years since I began pursuing this hobby online, that people seem to drift into the hobby and then drift right back out again. Life changes and financial struggles are consistently at fault but theres also this malaise that seems to set in for many of us. Either the chase gets old or we start to calculate how much money we've been spending on frivolity in conjunction with time spent away from doing the more important things in Life. And for our resellers, the saturation of new sellers and the loss of exclusive discounts probably nailed some coffins too. For some, this begins their next dark ages. I can only speak for myself but any wavering on my part have been short lived as LEGO has kept itself close to my heart with the modulars and CMF. Of course, we're apparently now getting the first non-modular building and CMF are both rising in price and straying in nature. :o)

    Couldn't agree more with everything said...and I sense some degree of "dark ages" is being imposed upon me by TLG as well (due to their policy changes with Exclusive sets).

    Coincidentally, I was just looking through my Series 1 CMFs yesterday and remembered that those were only $1.99 each here in the USA. The Simpsons CMFs are 2X ($3.99) the price of the original CMFs. While the licensing agreement with 20th Century Fox attributes to some of the increase, I have to say that pricing of the CMFs is getting completely out of hand. And in a crummy economy too.

    Additionally, the loss of discounts has made me MUCH more picky in the sets I do purchase. And if there is a free polybag to be had for purchasing a certain dollar level (such as the Revan polybag on May the 4th weekend), I am more likely to grab it on eBay or bricklink instead of getting it through TLG by purchasing other products.

    pharmjodcloaked7FollowsCloselydougtsjasor
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,653


    Coincidentally, I was just looking through my Series 1 CMFs yesterday and remembered that those were only $1.99 each here in the USA. The Simpsons CMFs are 2X ($3.99) the price of the original CMFs. While the licensing agreement with 20th Century Fox attributes to some of the increase, I have to say that pricing of the CMFs is getting completely out of hand. And in a crummy economy too.

    If that is the case, then they won't sell very well. There will be loads sitting unsold on store shelves, and they will need to be discounted to shift them.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,011
    My enthusiasm is abated by a lack of room, I can see myself starting to get very choosy or rotating my displays. Exclusive giveaways like Revan don't help make my mind up to buy without discount either. Most of my buys cost me nowt but my time, as a modest amount of reselling pays for most of my sets.

    I can see myself buying a lot less.
    cloaked7Farmer_John
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Lack of Room
    Lack of Money
    Lack of Discounts
    can cause a

    Lack of Interest.
    dougtsFollowsCloselyCircleK
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    cloaked7 said:

    Lack of Room
    Lack of Money
    Lack of Discounts
    can cause a

    Lack of Interest.

    Newer themes like Legend of Chima are not only uninteresting, they weird me out! Star Wars is repetitive and getting boring fast (except perhaps some of the large sets). On the positive side, I do like the Modulars, ships, and trains, and will probably suck it up to purchase them...but only during double VIP point events. I now only pick up the CMFs on a "fig-by-fig" basis as there are only a few in each series that interest me.

    Ironically, I'm getting back to where I was when I was first introduced to Lego in my youth...MOCing with the bricks I do have. And all the newer parts make it that much more entertaining.
    Kanohi
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    mathew said:

    mathew said:

    America is one giant corporation. If you're in the top 10% then great. If you're in the bottom 10% there's a safety net as long as you can handle poor living conditions. If you're the other 80% then well you're basically screwed.

    These "poor" living conditions are better than how most people in the world live. There are millions who would give anything just for a taste of that poor living conditions.
    Better than most? There are plenty of places in America that resemble worn torn Iraq: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-2-men-seriously-wounded-in-south-side-shooting-20140420,0,3822278.story
    Wait, what are those structures behind the police lines ? Those are housing structures WITH ELECTRICITY aren't they ? Must be hard living in those, I mean some people could only live in tents:
    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/central-african-republic-tipping-point/

    Shall we continue with the one off examples ?
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,011
    ^^ MOcing or bricklinking a set really does help prolong the build, but most of us (myself included) make a larger than system set when we MOC, which does the lack of room no good at all.

    Maybe the repetition does sting a bit. Apart from the UCS' that i've missed out on, nearly every other set in OT SW has been done more than once or is about to be redone (ISD/AT-AT etc) in the time since my dark ages. I'm tempted to go UCS only, but I like my minifigs too much.

    The best standard build I have had lately is when I strayed from OT SW to get a #10220 VW camper van. Room isn't an issue for that set, the missus is happy to have it on the bookshelf at the back of the living room.
    Pitfall69
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888

    mathew said:

    mathew said:

    America is one giant corporation. If you're in the top 10% then great. If you're in the bottom 10% there's a safety net as long as you can handle poor living conditions. If you're the other 80% then well you're basically screwed.

    These "poor" living conditions are better than how most people in the world live. There are millions who would give anything just for a taste of that poor living conditions.
    Better than most? There are plenty of places in America that resemble worn torn Iraq: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-2-men-seriously-wounded-in-south-side-shooting-20140420,0,3822278.story
    Wait, what are those structures behind the police lines ? Those are housing structures WITH ELECTRICITY aren't they ? Must be hard living in those, I mean some people could only live in tents:
    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/central-african-republic-tipping-point/

    Shall we continue with the one off examples ?
    So because half the world lives in poverty we should let our once prosperous cities like Chicago and Detroit become like 3rd world countries? I understand your upset, but I don't see your point. If the inequality continues to run rampant here without any intervention, what do you think will happen to everyone else in tents?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Sit around campfires and eat beans and pass gas? Seriously, do we need to continue this conversation?

    I enjoy making MOC's more than building what comes in a Lego set. I think this aspect of the hobby is what keeps me from drifting into the Dark Age.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^Well yea you enjoy MOCing cause you've already built every exclusive available lol

    I'm the same way, except I'm just starting to get into MOCs. I've never done one, just planning a couple big ones. I need at least 10,000-20,000 bricks, and that's mostly big pieces. I've been keeping an eye on prices at bricklink and I need to talk to my Lego store manager about ordering some pieces.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I've definitely lost interest in the collecting part. I've gotten back into audio and currently find it more enjoyable. I still enjoy Lego because my oldest son loves to build. But the whole building a set by the instructions and then displaying it just doesn't do it for me anymore. That and it takes up too much space and I don't enjoy the organizing aspect.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Dougout said:

    mathew said:

    mathew said:

    America is one giant corporation. If you're in the top 10% then great. If you're in the bottom 10% there's a safety net as long as you can handle poor living conditions. If you're the other 80% then well you're basically screwed.

    These "poor" living conditions are better than how most people in the world live. There are millions who would give anything just for a taste of that poor living conditions.
    Better than most? There are plenty of places in America that resemble worn torn Iraq: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-2-men-seriously-wounded-in-south-side-shooting-20140420,0,3822278.story
    Wait, what are those structures behind the police lines ? Those are housing structures WITH ELECTRICITY aren't they ? Must be hard living in those, I mean some people could only live in tents:
    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/central-african-republic-tipping-point/

    Shall we continue with the one off examples ?
    So because half the world lives in poverty we should let our once prosperous cities like Chicago and Detroit become like 3rd world countries? I understand your upset, but I don't see your point. If the inequality continues to run rampant here without any intervention, what do you think will happen to everyone else in tents?
    Nope. I was just showing the absurdity of using US as the barometer for "poor" living conditions.
    pharmjodDougoutdougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Dougout said:

    ^Well yea you enjoy MOCing cause you've already built every exclusive available lol

    Well, not quite :) I'm not like @Legoboy and have the funds to buy every single Exclusive that comes out ;)



  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited April 2014

    Dougout said:

    mathew said:

    mathew said:

    America is one giant corporation. If you're in the top 10% then great. If you're in the bottom 10% there's a safety net as long as you can handle poor living conditions. If you're the other 80% then well you're basically screwed.

    These "poor" living conditions are better than how most people in the world live. There are millions who would give anything just for a taste of that poor living conditions.
    Better than most? There are plenty of places in America that resemble worn torn Iraq: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-2-men-seriously-wounded-in-south-side-shooting-20140420,0,3822278.story
    Wait, what are those structures behind the police lines ? Those are housing structures WITH ELECTRICITY aren't they ? Must be hard living in those, I mean some people could only live in tents:
    http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/central-african-republic-tipping-point/

    Shall we continue with the one off examples ?
    So because half the world lives in poverty we should let our once prosperous cities like Chicago and Detroit become like 3rd world countries? I understand your upset, but I don't see your point. If the inequality continues to run rampant here without any intervention, what do you think will happen to everyone else in tents?
    Nope. I was just showing the absurdity of using US as the barometer for "poor" living conditions.
    I'll have you know, I had to wait six minutes, SIX MINUTES to buy a discounted box of Easter Peeps at CVS this morning. I don't know if I can continue to live in the US with the quality of life at levels this low.
    FollowsCloselypharmjody2joshdragonhawkPitfall69cloaked7MasterBeefyjasor
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,829
    Don't bring me into it, I just have different priorities. I choose to send my kids to school without shoes on their feet.
    Pitfall69DougoutFollowsCloselyy2joshYodaliciousRomanticWarriorSirKevbagsMasterBeefyjasor
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    I don't think I needed to know that... :o)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,108
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^^That's funny. I was at CVS as well this morning. I just went to the store to buy condoms. The cashier asked me if I needed a bag? I told him that my wife isn't that ugly..

    You wife 'Isn't that ugly'?
    y2joshdragonhawkpharmjodJeffHwagnerml2
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Geez, I check out for two weeks and this place completely goes to hell in a handbasket.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    It's Spring Fever :)
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