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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    The decision process at LEGO makes absolutely no sense to me sometimes. Keeping 5 modulars out at anyone time yet not capitalizing on what is one of the most popular of all holidays in the developed world and keeping 3 or 4 winter village sets out at a time makes me wonder who decides what and why. I would like to think there is some rationale but who knows. It seems like having an assortment of Christmas / Holiday themed sets out each year would be a boon.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    pharmjod said:

    The decision process at LEGO makes absolutely no sense to me sometimes. Keeping 5 modulars out at anyone time yet not capitalizing on what is one of the most popular of all holidays in the developed world and keeping 3 or 4 winter village sets out at a time makes me wonder who decides what and why. I would like to think there is some rationale but who knows. It seems like having an assortment of Christmas / Holiday themed sets out each year would be a boon.

    It probably has to do with the seasonal nature. Modulars can be left out all year. If they kept all the holiday sets they'd be storing them and bringing them back each year.
    FollowsClosely
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I think it has been mentioned here before, but haven't they made claims to their ability to gear up production with relatively short notice. It seems it would be no great feat to do a run of sets each year. One would think the LEGO Group has to be getting better at predicting demand based on previous trends and producing accordingly, especially with a series like the Winter Village. Of course, it is entirely possible that they have an this the decision they have made on how to handle it. Retiring them when they don't have to seems to me like they are missing opportunity though.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I think their prediction models need work. Seems like they have an awful lot of WVMs left.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Fair enough :)
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,676
    One big difference is that the WVC was 20% in Jan 2013 then 30% off a few weeks later, WVM is still at full price, I am sure they will be all gone by now if they were priced at $70.
    FollowsCloselymadforLEGO
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2014
    prevere said:

    I think their prediction models need work. Seems like they have an awful lot of WVMs left.

    If only there was some retail method or technique that Lego could employ to move merchandise that's overproduced, warming the shelves, out of season, etc.
    FollowsCloselymadforLEGOsidersdddougtsnkx1Rainstorm26pharmjodpreverewagnerml2
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    The WV sets really only sell in the few months leading up to Christmas; hence, the 30% off sales after Christmas. It makes no sense for TLG to waste shelf space with them for nine months out of the year since they would have to provide discounts to move them during those months. The key for TLG is adequately forecasting those three months that they do sell to avoid discounting in the months that they don't. Based on what happened with the Advent Calendars (all three selling out early), I think TLG is now generally opting to under-produce Christmas seasonal sets.
    madforLEGO
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    edited March 2014

    prevere said:

    I think their prediction models need work. Seems like they have an awful lot of WVMs left.

    If only there was some retail method or technique that Lego could employ to move merchandise that's overproduced, warming the shelves, out of season, etc.
    75% discount.


  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    @ 75% it seems like even the dud chima sells
    I think 50% is the key ..... Remember even the dreaded b-wing got cleared :D lol

    prevere said:

    I think their prediction models need work. Seems like they have an awful lot of WVMs left.

    If only there was some retail method or technique that Lego could employ to move merchandise that's overproduced, warming the shelves, out of season, etc.
    75% discount.


  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    How is the B-Wing doing these days. I saw some people selling these here and there. I figure the best bet is for US sellers to sell their stock overseas.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    Amazon has listing @ $250 inclusive of shipping. After shipping and fees seller is netting about 190$. That's almost 90% yoy roi not bad. Assuming that it was bought @ that 50% off sale :D
    Pitfall69 said:

    How is the B-Wing doing these days. I saw some people selling these here and there. I figure the best bet is for US sellers to sell their stock overseas.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    edited March 2014

    Amazon has listing @ $250 inclusive of shipping. After shipping and fees seller is netting about 190$. That's almost 90% yoy roi not bad. Assuming that it was bought @ that 50% off sale :D

    Pitfall69 said:

    How is the B-Wing doing these days. I saw some people selling these here and there. I figure the best bet is for US sellers to sell their stock overseas.

    That's what I'm figuring. What's the ceiling on this set? It was obvious that it didn't sell well.

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I think the ceiling might be double RRP in a longer term time frame. More near term, $300 including shipping is probably a decent target. I think the reality is that no matter what the ultimate price, it's going to be a fairly slow mover. There will always be some late-comer UCS/SW collectors that will want to buy in, but I think it's a trickle and not a deluge.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,139
    If you show the IS and the B-wing side by side, there is no contest. Even though the IS was never engaged in combat, it is well shown in ROTJ, is minifig scaled and comes with minifigs, the B-wing was under exploited in the film and has absolutely no kudos. I do think that only the completionist is going to buy the B-wing at twice RRP, whereas people would drop that kind of money on the IS much more easily. I got mine in a wrecked box for £95 from TRU, and it was only just worth that for me. It's very much a "meh" product for me and if I had to cut down on shelf space it could well be one of the first sets i'd pack up.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,208

    @ 75% it seems like even the dud chima sells
    I think 50% is the key ..... Remember even the dreaded b-wing got cleared :D lol

    No, I don't remember that at all. But then, I am in Europe. :-)
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    ^ it was 50% in UK Lego stores too - just didn't take long to clear their stock out.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    Pitfall69 said:

    Amazon has listing @ $250 inclusive of shipping. After shipping and fees seller is netting about 190$. That's almost 90% yoy roi not bad. Assuming that it was bought @ that 50% off sale :D

    Pitfall69 said:

    How is the B-Wing doing these days. I saw some people selling these here and there. I figure the best bet is for US sellers to sell their stock overseas.

    That's what I'm figuring. What's the ceiling on this set? It was obvious that it didn't sell well.

    Maybe its just me, but I feel like LEGO has been slacking on some of their later UCS models, it seems like they just don't get the attention and focus that most of the older ones did. #10215 and #10227 come to mind first.
    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,162
    First of all I enjoyed the b-wing #10227, great set.

    It's not "just you", but it may be you. The love for the brick needs to be fed with bigger and better models to keep the passion alive. If you do not moc then eventually sets will no longer impress.
    TheLoneTensor
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850

    First of all I enjoyed the b-wing #10227, great set.

    It's not "just you", but it may be you. The love for the brick needs to be fed with bigger and better models to keep the passion alive. If you do not moc then eventually sets will no longer impress.

    I don't own #10227. I'm just basing my opinion on what I have heard and can see.

    I do MOC quite a lot actually, and I'm currently working on a redesigned #10030 on LDD. I'm not saying those models are crap, just that they seem less impressive to me than many of the earlier models.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    My son liked building the b-wing, and it looks great on the shelf. The problem is that it's very flimsy and falls apart every time it's picked up.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,162
    edited March 2014
    Lego is most likely under producing these [Martian Manhunter Polybags] on purpose. Short term it's good business. And +1 for resellers!

    Edited by Yellowcastle 3/12/14
    TheLoneTensor
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I'm a fan of the UCS B-Wing too. It matches up well with the Imperial Shuttle in size. I sold mine for a couple of reasons. First it takes up a lot of shelf space and looks best when it's angled a little outward from the wall. Second, I'm just not a big enough fan of the ship. It's a good model and I didn't have problems with parts falling off. I was even able to swoosh it around. The cockpit was not well designed however. It was next to impossible to open it without taking the whole section apart.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,162
    I modified the back of cockpit a bit using extra pieces from the set and I had no problem swooshing. It was a minor update, can't recall what it was.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Good. I'm planning on flipping mine. I wonder how high it will go?
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,434
    It's popular because of the resale value. Can't wait for the bubble to burst.
  • oldtodd33oldtodd33 Denver 4800 miles to BillundMember Posts: 2,623
    Apparently they only go for between 10 to 15 dollars hardly a high resale value, IMO.
    Pitfall69
  • lordzaraklordzarak OH, United StatesMember Posts: 329
    Not really high dollar wise, but potentially 20% back from a $75 order. Better than an extra 5% during Double VIP.
    FollowsCloselydougtspharmjod
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    edited March 2014
    mathew said:

    Good. I'm planning on flipping mine. I wonder how high it will go?

    Wrong thread...

    Not any more...YC
    Pitfall69
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    ^ True. But since when does any thread ever stay on topic ; )
    margotFollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • veign06veign06 USAMember Posts: 137
    edited March 2014
    oldtodd33 said:

    Apparently they only go for between 10 to 15 dollars hardly a high resale value, IMO.

    Yeah but thats now while theyre still available, or at least were available. If they are truly already out online the prices will start going up but I am sure some stores still have them.

    Im kinda hoping the stay low lol...i have 2, one to keep sealed and one to open but I havent opened either one yet, probably wont if the price went up very much.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    lordzarak said:

    Not really high dollar wise, but potentially 20% back from a $75 order. Better than an extra 5% during Double VIP.

    I'd be happy with that. I actually like the minifig. I'm not a Justice League fan or even much of a superhero fan. But I like my retro-space stuff and he fits in with that.
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    Buy them now, if they do not return you can expect to see the prices start to rise up. I got several off of Bricklink before the pricing goes North. I was going to order the Parisian tonight to secure one, guess I will just being going to my local Lego store now.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2014
    Now:
    mathew said:

    Good. I'm planning on flipping mine. I wonder how high it will go?

    Then:
    mathew said:

    This is exactly why I don't like resellers. It's like a bunch of Al's from Toy Story 2.

    JeffHPitfall69jadedancdougtsBumblepantsmressinwagnerml2lego007dneul
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    Doctor! Doctor! Is there a doctor in the house? Someone is suffering from footinmouthdisease :p
    Pitfall69carlqdneul
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    I would be grabbing one of these from the bay asap if you still need one (or phone a friend here). Ebay BIN prices have already jumped up a couple of bucks since this afternoon. I fully expect this fig to hit $30 bucks considering how fast [email protected] ran out.
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession in a "Brick" house - Calgary, AlbertaMember Posts: 656
    I grabbed 3 for $17.00 each earlier. I already saw the people that have copious amounts setting the prices north of $30.00 easily.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    I got one as a [email protected] freebie and paid $13 for another one on the bay. I hated paying that, but I need doubles of the JLA figs. One for me that I will love always & one for my kid to not appreciate at all.

    I'm sure this has been discussed here at one point or another, but I've always wondered this: How the hell do certain eBay sellers end up with 75+ of these promotional items? Internal theft?
    DougTemplar
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    ..."If you have multiple personalities please press 3,4,5, and 6"...

    Lol I think we have a severe case of Smeagol...

    "Sell them! Sell them both! No, not Martian. Martian is our friend!"...
    Brick_Obsession
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950

    I grabbed 3 for $17.00 each earlier. I already saw the people that have copious amounts setting the prices north of $30.00 easily.

    There are a bunch sitting on ebay right now at ~$15 shipped.
  • 12651265 The Great State of TexasMember Posts: 1,084
    I made three orders....each of them got canceled, but got three Martian Manhunters delivered. Scored!!
    FollowsCloselyRomanticWarriorpharmjodJohnnyfinlandia
  • GoldchainsGoldchains Member Posts: 795
    Phew, I'm glad I got one. Part of my order was on backorder, but enough shipped out to get it to me right away. It's a great figure, and I'm not surprised it sold out fast.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Is #71004 done? It's surprising if it is since the movie is doing so well. I asked our local store assistant manager about it and he said he didn't know. He did say they couldn't keep the Lego Movie sets on the shelves though.

    I am wondering how #71004 will fare if they are indeed gone for good...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    Once the stores by me were out, they never got anymore. Lego [email protected] is sold out and my buddy who runs a TRU hasn't gotten anymore in.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited March 2014
    CircleK said:


    I'm sure this has been discussed here at one point or another, but I've always wondered this: How the hell do certain eBay sellers end up with 75+ of these promotional items? Internal theft?

    Some amount of these sellers no doubt made 75 in store and online orders over a couple of weeks. Others in all likelihood have an in-store connection who is happy to supply them as part of a collaborative reseller effort in which they receive a share of the profits, or even simpler just do it for a bit of cash on the spot. I am 100% certain this type of activity occurs at many stores, both on the promo free items as well as on PAB stock and/or holiday boxes.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 987
    Just picked one up on eBay, €16 delivered. Thanks to folk on this thread for the heads up, I had assumed that it would be available for the whole month.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,208
    mathew said:

    ^ I've been corrupted.

    That's the brickset effect! :-)
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    I never paid any attention to #71004, picked up 5 boxes of 60 @ $116 each. Lets see how they work out.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,428
    edited March 2014
    I think that the figures did well on their own due to the popularity of the movie itself. I think much of the demand was generated by 'casual' fans that saw the movie and wanted a fig that they saw in the movie. I'm not sure if people are going to be running to eBay or anywhere to look for boxes, or even the figures, once they are gone from stores everywhere (out of sight, out of mind) and if they are going to want the figures enough to have to go pay 5+ dollars for a figure they could have gotten in the store for 2.99. Time will tell. They may see renewed demand when the next movie comes out or when it is released on Blu ray/DVD. LEGO would be kinda crazy to not release more at that time, but LEGO is LEGO.

    As for the sets, I forgot to ask the LEGO store by me about how fast they are moving, but when I was there on a Saturday they had plenty of the sets, except for #70803 Cloud cuckoo Palace. Apparently that set keeps flying off the shelves.
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