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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,804
    You're not wrong. Another scan next week! :-\
    Pitfall69
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 957
    There's a discussion on EB about Town Hall expected to be the next modular to retire. The source is a brand store manager, so usual pinch of salt required, but what do people think? I've been slowly catching up with the modulars in order of release, so PS is next on my list.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    TH is the one I keep avoiding, primarily for the cost. I missed the last sale maybe a year+ ago when it was $150 or even cheaper on Amazon.
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    Likewise^
    I'm sure it's worth the extra money over the other modulars but I haven't pushed the button on it yet. I did have enough VIP points for one but dropped them on a Simpsons house last month. I'll have to get one though can't even see them being less than RRP now other than AFOL days or double VIP.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Double VIP points from April 1-15...

    I still need to get the Parisian Restaurant, but figure since it just came out that I should have plenty of opportunities (maybe even triple VIP points if they ever do that again). With TLG no longer allowing discounts on exclusives, my list of wanted sets is growing. There's no doubt that I'll probably end up skipping several of them.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    I doubt TH is the next to go. I see GE going long before TH
    I see the order unchanging: GE, then PS, then TH, then PC.

    I guess it is always possible that TH is going as it is more than the others but I would be surprised if it did.
    I guess one of the people on here that have knowledge about what is available next year can shed light on if this one is not available.

    I would take anything the store managers say with a LARGE grain of salt personally. They are the same people that were sure FB was gone about 2 years ago.
    FollowsClosely
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    The next in line should be the GE. It was released 6 months after FB so by the time it disappears from the retail, it will surpass FB as the longest modular on the shelf. If GE is not the next one to go, I do not know what people is thinking.
  • sschmotzsschmotz Member Posts: 25
    I wish we could see sales information for the module sets. I'm sure the FB sold well since it was around so long, and the GE and PS have good appeal, but I wonder about the TH. I personally won't buy it because I don't like it. It's large size makes it stick out like a sore thumb compared to the other buildings and it just doesn't seem to fit in.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    edited March 2014
    Having now done this for a few years, I can say that the store managers seem to have about as much information as we do, maybe a bit less in some areas, more in others.

    What they do know more about is what is coming out in the next 3-6 months. As for retirement, until it is removed from their shelving plan, they have no need to know.

    I have found the information received from the stores to be less accurate than other sources, I have stopped asking.
    FollowsCloselyAmbroise
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,309
    sschmotz said:

    I wish we could see sales information for the module sets. I'm sure the FB sold well since it was around so long, and the GE and PS have good appeal, but I wonder about the TH. I personally won't buy it because I don't like it. It's large size makes it stick out like a sore thumb compared to the other buildings and it just doesn't seem to fit in.

    Town halls are normally big and grand in real life too.
    Pitfall69madforLEGOpharmjodFollowsCloselyexciter1
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933

    Having now done this for a few years, I can say that the store managers seem to have about as much information as we do, maybe a bit less in some areas, more in others.

    What they do know more about is what is coming out in the next 3-6 months. As for retirement, until it is removed from their shelving plan, they have no need to know.

    I have found the information received from the stores to be less accurate than other sources, I have stopped asking.

    That is because most of these employees get their info from folks like us depending on what we hear. :-)
    I find that most times I surprise the employees when I say I have heard about this set or that set and have seen it already, like the new cargo train.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    ^Exactly. I don't find that being "large" and "grand" a reason to not buy the Town Hall. They are supposed to be that way because they are government buildings.
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    ^ I actually don't think it's big enough for a town/city hall :). If/when I ever get around to building mine, I plan on doubling-it up.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    edited March 2014
    ^ It may not be accurately sized, but its supposed to fit in with the modulars, while it still looks town hall-ish.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    Poochy said:

    ^ I actually don't think it's big enough for a town/city hall :). If/when I ever get around to building mine, I plan on doubling-it up.

    ^ It may not be accurately sized, but its supposed to fit in with the modulars, while it still looks town hall-ish.

    It does need to be wider, but that would make it $270+ People are already complaining that it is too expensive as it is. I think they did what they could within the parameters given.
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    ^ Yes, to be fair, the doubling-up plan is only because I got mine for $120 during that "epic WM once in a lifetime Lego" sale. I would not even be thinking of doing that at MSRP.
    Pitfall69pharmjod
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited March 2014
    Grand Emporium has been out for 4 years now, I would fully expect that one to go next. I wouldn't rule out 2 going within a short period of each other, but I would still assume if that happened that the second one would be Pet Shop and not Town Hall. 5 modulars out at one time for nearly 5 years a piece is oversaturation.
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    I heard from a store manager that the new UCS Sandcrawler will EOL on May 6, 2014
    KanohiFollowsCloselyLegoFanTexaspharmjodOdinduskLegoManiacc
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622

    I heard from a store manager that the new UCS Sandcrawler will EOL on May 6, 2014

    Is it limited to 20,000?

    :D
    LegoFanTexas
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,009
    Dougout said:

    ...5 modulars out at one time for nearly 5 years a piece is oversaturation.

    I agree with the first half of your post, but 5 is the new normal for now. When you get the modular bug, you want more. More, more and more is not much when there are only three. Hence the high after market prices. More, more, more, more and more is much better for Lego, especially their bottom line.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,309
    I don't see why having five concurrent modulars at once is over-saturation. Adults just getting into Lego tend to overspend when they find something they like. When you get into modulars, having five models out at the same time means you get choice for your first purchase and also an opportunity to build a decent display on direct purchases for those that get the modulars bug.

    Compare that with what would happen if there was only two out. Buy them, build them, have to wait 2-4 years until you have a shelf full.

    Five is about right in my view.
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    5 may be the right number. But that doesn't mean each should be out almost 5 years. They need to increase the release schedule if they want 5 out at once.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,309
    For resellers, collectors or Lego themselves? Five out at once gives a good choice to get your display going, and another new one every year keeps it going. If they did two per year, it may put people off collecting them all due to finance / space.

    It might also lead to a lowering of quality of build or too much repetition.
    binaryeye
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    As I was building #75043 I noticed the part count on the box, 717. Same as #9516, but #75043 is $75 CAD and #9516 is $150, how did LEGO manage that?!
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    ^ #9516 weighs 3.88 Ibs and has a lot of special molds for the new characters, 2/3 of the minifigures in the set needs new molds.

    #75043 weighs about half with 1.98 Ibs and no new molds needed and most of the minifigures are droids so it costs way less.
    RomanticWarrior
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,309

    As I was building #75043 I noticed the part count on the box, 717. Same as #9516, but #75043 is $75 CAD and #9516 is $150, how did LEGO manage that?!

    160 or so technic pins or similar 1c parts. Part count isn't everything.
    BuriedinBricks
  • mcvitiemcvitie Sheffield, EnglandMember Posts: 291
    how much are you guys expecting #10229 to fetch this Christmas?

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    edited March 2014

    I heard from a store manager that the new UCS Sandcrawler will EOL on May 6, 2014

    Is it limited to 20,000?

    :D
    20,000 Sandcrawlers will have a numbered license plate. The rest will have the vanity title, SHDYDLR.
    pharmjodexciter1
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I agree with the comments above stating the GE will be the next modular to go. If discontinuing sets was based on sales, the FB would still be available...
    FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    k
    mcvitie said:

    how much are you guys expecting #10229 to fetch this Christmas?

    Guess about $160-200 USD , especially before Christmas.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    JeffH said:

    ^ #9516 weighs 3.88 Ibs and has a lot of special molds for the new characters, 2/3 of the minifigures in the set needs new molds.

    #75043 weighs about half with 1.98 Ibs and no new molds needed and most of the minifigures are droids so it costs way less.

    Actually, Chief Tarfful's head and body piece is a new mold.

    My point was not that #9516 was overpriced because you can get another set with the same piece count for half as much money, I just found kind of funny that they have two sets with the same piece count but one is double the cost of the other.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^ I agree...even with special molds, double cost for the same piece count is a little steep.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,309
    ^ It is if you ignore what those pieces are. Not all bricks are created equal, especially technic pins.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    ^ #9516 has a lot of tiny pieces of it's own.
    Brickamore
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,355
    ^ all good points but i think price by piece only works if you go by the value of each individual piece and frankly I couldn't be bothered to sit and look at the inventory list for both, if anyone else wants to then feel free. Just looking at pictures of the two I'd imagine Jabba's palace to cost more, but it's hard to separate out how much of that is because of knowing what the prices are already and the amount of mini figures that are in each making a sway on decision.

    Having said that I own neither of these and would only buy Jabba's palace at 40-50% off, the other set i think I'd only be buying for Chief Tarfful so it'd have to be a big knock down on price. (incidentally I'm not knocking the design of #75043 I'm just more interested in the original trilogy than the prequel trilogy)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,309

    ^ #9516 has a lot of tiny pieces of it's own.

    It does, but some small parts can be valuable (more than 1c / 1p).
    Shib said:

    ^ all good points but i think price by piece only works if you go by the value of each individual piece and frankly I couldn't be bothered to sit and look at the inventory list for both, if anyone else wants to then feel free.

    This is where tools like the part out value on bricklink can be useful (at least once a set is out, inventoried and the new parts have sold a decent number of times).
    FollowsClosely
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2014
    It's not a matter of looking at the entire inventory, but instead just having an overall understanding of the set, itself.

    Example 1: Any Technic set = lots of pins, tiny bushings, etc. Absolutely critical to the model sure, but still tiny pieces, so it's easy for these to have higher-than-normal piece counts.

    Example 2: Winter Cottage #10199. Look at the pictures and you see the tile floor is (roughly) 11x7, so 77 pieces. That right there tells you that about $8 of a "10 cent ppp" is the kitchen floor alone. For the record, I think that set is still a great value ppp even considering all the little pieces.

    Example 3: Jabba's Palace. It's been discussed here already, but the unique minifigs (and Jabba) drive the ppp way down here. It's the same with the Rancor Pit. You are getting premium pieces/figs which will obviously drive down the ppp.

    So no, you don't have to scan the entire inventory of a set, but instead just glean what you can from the photos, or the very nature of a set, as with Technic, to determine if you think it's a good value.
    VaderX
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,355

    It's not a matter of looking at the entire inventory, but instead just having an overall understanding of the set, itself.

    So no, you don't have to scan the entire inventory of a set, but instead just glean what you can from the photos, or the very nature of a set, as with Technic, to determine if you think it's a good value.

    For the record I was pretty much agreeing with you in so much as saying that PPP is meaningless without context. And let's face it at the end of the day each set is only worth as much as each individual is willing to pay for it and each person has different angles on why they'd buy a set.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734

    It's the same with the Rancor Pit. You are getting premium pieces/figs which will obviously drive down the ppp.

    Rancor Pit is an excellent example of why price per piece is a bad way to judge a set's value. There are very few small pieces in the set. Not a cheese slope to be found. And there are several relatively large parts in large quantities.

    On the surface, ~16 cents per piece seems really high. But that's only because price per piece is such an arbitrary metric.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    "A set is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it." That is an often used cliche within this forum.

    While it might be a general rule of thumb for some, it isn't necessarily the hard truth. I will try to reason with the BMW dealer next time by explaining that their vehicles are only worth what I am willing to pay, thus they should give me one at that price :)
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,355
    I only meant it more the other way round, it's worth as much as someone will pay, so the more you want it the more you are willing to pay.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,978
    ^ BMWs should be cheaper, they have a real problem with faulty indicators. :)

    I would always consider average piece size/finished article size or set weight as much as actual piece numbers. I will generally never buy system sets for anywhere near full price (1/3 off minimum) that all the retailers stock. As much as i'd like a meaningful discount on an exclusive UCS, sometimes i'll fold and buy it early rather than wait an eternity for one. I've only paid full RRP for 2 of my sets: Death Star and UCS R2.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited March 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    "A set is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it." That is an often used cliche within this forum.

    While it might be a general rule of thumb for some, it isn't necessarily the hard truth. I will try to reason with the BMW dealer next time by explaining that their vehicles are only worth what I am willing to pay, thus they should give me one at that price :)

    In your BMW scenario, maybe a lost customer here or there doesn't matter much. But if hundreds of thousands of customers consistently made the same demand as you, you can be pretty confident BMW would listen. That is, unless they don't care about being in business.

    Maybe a more accurate statement might be "something is only worth what people are willing to pay for it". Although it might be a cliché, it's also a very a true statement.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    ^ Even in the BMW scenario surely you don't go in and pay list price? Do people really do that? I thought that only happened when you were buying a model where at that moment in time supply couldn't meet with demand?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    Dad said:

    ^ Even in the BMW scenario surely you don't go in and pay list price? Do people really do that? I thought that only happened when you were buying a model where at that moment in time supply couldn't meet with demand?

    Yes and no. When we bought our Honda S2000 back in 2001, demand was so high, we paid sticker. When I special ordered my M5 I paid sticker for it, mostly because I had to special order it. My client paid OVER sticker for the Chevy Volt when it first came out. My other client had to be the first one at the county club to have his Audi R8 (The one in the first Iron Man) so he paid OVER sticker.

    I'm sorry I use cars all the time in my examples. I'm sort of a car enthusiast.

    I understand if enough people demand to pay less than MSRP for a BMW, they may have to lower prices, but I don't think that will happen. How many cars today are cheaper than they were 5 years ago? There will always be enough people that will pay MSRP and over to balance out the ones who will never pay MSRP.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    Ah... Now if your talking cars like that, things change a little. Special ordering M5's wasn't quite what I had in mind.
    Pitfall69khmellymel
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    edited March 2014
    ^I won't do it again, trust me. That payment was more than my mortgage :)

    We still have the S2000 though :) Nice little car.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    Back on topic? The Winter Villiage Cottage is sold out and Retiring Soon, but won't it be back for another run this Holiday Season?
  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    The Cottage is definitely gone for good.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    tom4086 said:

    The Cottage is definitely gone for good.

    Ok. I must have missed something along the way. Why doesn't Lego put Retired on their website then? Seems like they would.

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