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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    ^ The most expensive being #9516 I believe, only 72 more pieces than #9526 but $30 more. Did anyone actually buy that set at RRP?
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259

    ^ The most expensive being #9516 I believe, only 72 more pieces than #9526 but $30 more. Did anyone actually buy that set at RRP?

    I'd hope not

    RRP is $200 AUD here. I paid $110 for mine, but it is widely available for $160.
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    So I've finished sorting out a craigslist lot and have three agents sets: #8637, #8968, #8631
    Which option do you think will garner the higher income? Sell now before the new agents sets are mass marketed or wait until the new sets are out and kids want the old ones as well?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I don't think your market for the old agents sets are kids... I think that goes to adults, kids usually are happy enough with current stuff, those are old enough, I doubt most kids even know they existed.
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,700
    .......and with the new Agents sets on the horizon, they are likely to spark the interest of some AFOLs and get them searching for the old. I'd sit tight and sell a short while after the new ones have been released.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    I would list them now on the high end and wait. If they do not go in 3 months start dropping the price.
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    Listing now and waiting works for me. As for the 9V white passenger train...I feel the nudge to get that out the door before the PF one hits.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    ^There's always a market for 9V trains no matter what PF train is out. I run both 9V and PF.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    ^ Yup, there are three things that are always guaranteed to do well in the aftermarket.

    Modulars, Star Wars UCS sets, and PF compatible trains :o)
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    ^Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter #10215 says otherwise ;)
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,700
    ^ No different to #10026 for yearssssssss after EOL. ;o)
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited March 2014
    We just rained on @rancorbait s parade. How dare we :-)

    ...and @FollowsClosely is not following close enough apparently ;)
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    Pitfall69 said:

    We just rained on @rancorbait s parade. How dare we :-)

    You don't wanna go there @Pitfall69! ;o)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Where did I go? Wait, nowhere, because I'm still here.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    ^ "I'll bet you 10 dollars that you're not here" ;o)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    ^"I'll buy that for a dollar."
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950

    ^ Yup, there are three things that are always guaranteed to do well in the aftermarket.

    Modulars, Star Wars UCS sets, and PF compatible trains :o)

    Two out of three ain't bad.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    ^Thanks, now I'm craving some of my wife's meatloaf.
    y2joshprevere
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Eh. Purchase price and turnover rate is all that matters.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,692
    flyingpig said:

    Eh. Purchase price and turnover rate is all that matters.

    Sale price also matters.

    I can buy lego at 50% off RRP and have an incredibly fast turnover rate at 60% off RRP. It wouldn't make me a good business man though.

  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    First series lord of the rings and hobbit, what do you guys think? I can buy some 79002, 79003, 79004, 79010, 9473.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    Depends on the price. If its >30% I would go in on all of them.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    I see first wave LOTR/Hobbit performing as POTC has done....not too shabby.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,326

    First series lord of the rings and hobbit, what do you guys think? I can buy some 79002, 79003, 79004, 79010, 9473.

    I would focus any buying of LoTr and Hobbit sets that are good for army building IMO. Unless you can get any of them for >30% Like @FollowsClosely says above and some sets (like the wargs or Weathertop) I would only touch at 40-50% off. Barrel escapes I would only touch at about 40-50% off as they were on sale A LOT by TRU and usually at a price that ranged from 17.50-25.50 per set and apparently TRU had A LOT to sell as well as they were widely available at that price range for about 1 week and I do not believe they ever really sold out of the stock.
    prevere said:

    I see first wave LOTR/Hobbit performing as POTC has done....not too shabby.

    IF you got those sets on sale, otherwise the only sets to rise for PoTC were the 2 ships.
    If you got the other sets on sale they are not doing badly, but from what I saw last I checked the PoTC sets were pretty much around retail still.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    ^Good point. I was factoring in at least 25% off. And of course, the ships are the focal point.
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    edited March 2014
    Thank you guys for the information.

    Decided to buy myself only couple of 79003's @ $65. It's a beautiful set that i think will do wel. He has 79013 quite cheap but i dunno what to think about that set. Also picked up his last two 79111, think that one is a no-brainer at $90.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813
    Well, 3 x #10197 sold in March for £205 including shipping. Will it be 3 x RRP come Christmas or is that a bit too optimistic?

    Who stuck with it and who 'cut their losses' ?

  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 195
    edited March 2014
    In the US there are still plenty available at around $250 (about 150 pounds) so I think 3x rrp by Christmas is unlikely.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    edited March 2014
    ^ ouch. I predicted $275USD by Christmas 2014 and I was laughed at... I will be unloading 1/2 my stock this year.

    I just sold my last 10179 on ebay. It was our personal one, that set will be missed. Now bring on a bigger and better one Lego!
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    If Lego does release a new Falcon I am going to stock up, till my bank account is completely empty!
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    As far as great return goes, I had a very good return on #4529 Iron man figure (Hero Factory like) from 2012. Walmart near me had these on sale at $7 and I bought about 20. I've sold them low as $33 and most recently for $70 with free shipping. I do have other Super Hero figures but they are not as popular as Iron man.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,140
    ^That must have been a tough decision.

    I've been toying with the idea of selling my 10179 as well (built and on display) but then I'm not quite sure what I would do with the acrylic display case I bought for it. That thing is impossible to ship (for me anyway).
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Love that Iron Man #4529. For me, it was gone in retail before the lightbulb in my head realized that fig in that format is perfect.

    I don't have a 10179, but I don't think I could sell it. I wouldn't be willing to sell any of my cherished sets. This is what keeps the aftermarket value relatively high in my opinion. No matter the increase in price, collectors hold these sets close to their heart.
    FollowsCloselyBrickDancer
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374

    ^ ouch. I predicted $275USD by Christmas 2014 and I was laughed at... I will be unloading 1/2 my stock this year.

    I just sold my last 10179 on ebay. It was our personal one, that set will be missed. Now bring on a bigger and better one Lego!

    If Lego does release a new Falcon I am going to stock up, till my bank account is completely empty!

    What's life without dreams ;)

    FollowsClosely
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,700
    @FollowsClosely‌, I do hope there's another on its way for you.

    If I could keep only one set it would be my #10179. It would be the last to go.
    Pitfall69cloaked7Brick_Obsession
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I'm really surprised to see #7879 Hoth Base doing well. 50% increase on a Star Wars set shortly after retirement. Really wish I grabbed more than one of those.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^ ouch. I predicted $275USD by Christmas 2014 and I was laughed at... I will be unloading 1/2 my stock this year.

    I just sold my last 10179 on ebay. It was our personal one, that set will be missed. Now bring on a bigger and better one Lego!

    If Lego does release a new Falcon I am going to stock up, till my bank account is completely empty!

    What's life without dreams ;)

    Better sleep.
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 485
    ^ no- that's life without children!
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    Dougout said:

    I'm really surprised to see #7879 Hoth Base doing well. 50% increase on a Star Wars set shortly after retirement. Really wish I grabbed more than one of those.

    It's a Toysrus exclusive so the number of copy is less to begin with. Similarly #8129 is doing well once it wss finally out of the shelf and it was constantly on sale during its life cycle. It probably get some hit with the new iteration #75054 but the mini figure selection is poor in the new one so maybe the impact is low.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I managed to get a #10197 last week for $199.99AUD shipped, from a US seller on Fishpond, I hope it actually turns up.

    Our retail was $299.99 AUD, these have been selling for $320+ Plus shipping on the secondary market.

    #7879 is still sitting on the shelf at TRU locally for $189.99 not going any where.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,812
    #7879 is still available in UK TRU, but it always had a ridiculous price - it cost £92 or $90 RRP -that is one seriously messed up exchange rate.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,334
    ^best it was ever available from UK TRU was £46 and even then I didn't go too heavy.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,812
    ^ I always thought the base itself looked a bit crap.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    It's a decent base with a good mix of minifigures and perfect as a play set. we all loved it - for what that's worth. Think we got ours for £56.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,812
    I was thinking as more of a display piece it looked poor, but then again if it is a fun play set then TLG achieved its goal.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,334
    Bacta Luke, Han, Leia and R-3PO are exclusives and a lot of people love Hoth. I'll be offering it in a Hoth pack this Xmas with #7749 #8083 #8084 # #8089
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,812
    It's a set I've never been too fussed on. I have a fair bit of Hoth stuff, and I've never seen it half price to be tempted, mainly for the exclusive minifigures.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    How much will the new Sandcrawler devalue the old one?
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,874
    Likely a lot, since I for one think the new one is a vast improvement. Of course, not being a diehard collector I've never understood why anyone would pay a premium for an earlier version of a set that in most cases is inferior to a newer version. Granted, this doesn't always apply as some rehashes aren't an improvement. The Sandcrawler however is I think. I could see it dropping to at or below the RRP of the new set.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,700
    There is no doubt I'll get this new one. Do I prefer it over the old? As a display model, no way. As a playset, yes, of course.

    With the new one retailing £250 here in the UK, I can't see the old one dropping below that price for a MISB. Uh uh! Not with them being so few and far between.
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