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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    The key difference (for now, anyways) is that demand for LEGO continues to rise with the increase in horded sets, and you can look at LEGO's general sales figures to see consumption has only increased in the last decade.

    It's been mentioned before, but the sheer amount of new sets per year (many of which are rehashes in City and Star Wars) is a bigger hurdle for the sustainability of the aftermarket than the increase in resellers and stocks of retired sets.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    Pitfall69 said:

    Sports cards are mainly to collect. Even as a youth, I kept my cards in great condition. I'm 42 years old. Lego is mainly to build and play with. It is a toy first and foremost. There are a lot of collectors of NIB Lego sets, but the sets that are torn open and played with far surpasses the amount adult collectors are storing away.


    This...
    Baseball cards are made to look pretty and sit in a binder, pure and simple.
    Toys, other the other hand, are played with. You will have kids today that will relive their youth of yesterday, which is another reason why toys from 80's go for so much now. This will not change. Are there those that stack boxes? Sure, but as stated many MANY times in the past that is a drop in the bucket compared to the number of people that buy and open the sets.
    I think FB is a good example of how the market still has demand even though FB was out forever (in terms of normal timelines) and was on sale many years of its run, and everyone saying "why would i buy a FB when I can get another mod?', etc etc.
    But Yet FB is around 250 right now, about 4 months after its run was over.
    EN was on sale for 75 dollars at LEGO (and about 89.99 everywhere else) so they could get rid of remaining stock and jumped to about 200 after it was gone and it is sitting at about 300 right now.
    Maersk train is stubborn but still well over its RRP when it was out.
    The other point is the Baseball market killed itself with more choices and all the 'limited' and 'hard to find' chase cards.. Again for something that cannot be 'played with'. Baseball cards of the 40s, 50s, and 60's are rare because kids PLAYED with them (put them in spokes, traded them, parents threw them out, etc. And in the 80's there werre plenty of guys with large bankrolls that wanted to relive their youth.
    The 90's made it int an investment for all same with Comics.. again meant to be read and really the market follows the BB card path above.
    It seems like LEGO is getting close to this occasionally, but again it is a TOY, and many of the sets are not exactly conductive to hording away (size of Boxes for larger sets like Mods especially) so there is always a demand. Whether it is someone who wants that EOL set for their kids 10th B day, or they are out of their dark ages and want to relive their youth, or just have the income to catch up on Mods for example.
    The caveat to this is if LEGO ever decides to start doing widespread re-releases all EOL sets, then you would see issue. However, that does not appear much likley to occur.. With SW it likely will because they only have so many sets to put out there. But for other retired sets not SW. Unlikely IMO
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    There may be a lot of new buyers coming in, but as they grow to learn how EOLing works they buy more at retail and less from resellers. Give them 3 years to buy instead of 2 and prices decrease significantly. Things don't look very sustainable for the aftermarket. With the amount of time and money it takes to make any kind of good returns, it makes more sense to invest in the stock market. To do otherwise you seriously have to love Lego.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    madforLEGO said:


    This...
    Baseball cards are made to look pretty and sit in a binder, pure and simple.
    Toys, other the other hand, are played with.

    There are a lot of MISB Lego collectors who never intend to open their sets to play with.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited March 2014
    ^^Yes, it took me loads of time to buy, sell and pack 3 sets last week for a profit of $280 :p

    Oh, and I REALLY love Lego :)
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 1,156
    edited March 2014
    I've lived through and recovered from my wounds of the sports card industry bubble. The difference is that the majority of retired sets hold their value and demand; unlike the majority of retired - and projected - sport stars fade away and are replaced by a someone else.

    A specific set is unique, unlike playing a sport is not.
    Pitfall69dougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited March 2014
    My daughter has Wolverine Chopper Showdown in pieces all over the floor. I have no idea where the instructions are and the box is thrown away. The fact that I can gather up the pieces and sell it for more than what I paid for it shows why you can't compare Lego with Sports cards and most collectibles.
    dougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited March 2014
    "Our actions are the results of our intentions and our intelligence."
    mathew said:

    madforLEGO said:


    This...
    Baseball cards are made to look pretty and sit in a binder, pure and simple.
    Toys, other the other hand, are played with.

    There are a lot of MISB Lego collectors who never intend to open their sets to play with.

    pharmjod
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    edited March 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    I can gather up the pieces and sell it for more than what I paid for it

    Go ahead, do it. I dare you! "introduce a little anarchy"

    ;o)
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    Lego hasn't reached full collector status (If there is such a thing), I believe that the majority of retired sets sold today get opened and built, that's a big difference.

    Where as old sealed Starwars Action Figures, Baseball cards etc are now days a collector item with the majority being kept in the same condition that they were received in.
    Pitfall69
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Pitfall69 said:

    My daughter has Wolverine Chopper Showdown in pieces all over the floor. I have no idea where the instructions are and the box is thrown away. The fact that I can gather up the pieces and sell it for more than what I paid for it shows why you can't compare Lego with Sports cards and most collectibles.

    Just gather up Deadpool. She'll never notice :)
    JeffHcloaked7FollowsClosely
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty Member Posts: 545
    I can't believe the price of the chopper showdown. I guess I wasn't the only one that "Meant" to pick up a couple of these.
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselynerick906
  • TheBrickLaddTheBrickLadd Member Posts: 844
    What does everyone think about #70401 currently on offer here in the UK for £8 so thought about grabbing a few.

    I know it's a little set but do castle themes resell quite well?

    I'm new to reselling so any advice is greatly appreciated.

  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    ^I'd be grabbing 10 at that price but I can't find them in Morrisons. Everything but!!
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    edited March 2014
    I don't see #70401 doing that well for reselling. The selection of parts is ok but not great. Three ok minifigs and a horse. But I don't see people paying £16 for it. Thus profit is likely to be low. The figures are not very sought after, and can be had for £1.20-£1.50.

    As a set to expand a castle it is reasonable but not great due to the minimal size. It is a small army expansion pack, but the other one at £4 is better for that.

    At £8 I'd buy a few for personal use, but not for resale.
  • TheBrickLaddTheBrickLadd Member Posts: 844
    Dad said:

    ^I'd be grabbing 10 at that price but I can't find them in Morrisons. Everything but!!

    CCC said:

    I don't see #70401 doing that well for reselling. The selection of parts is ok but not great. Three ok minifigs and a horse. But I don't see people paying £16 for it. Thus profit is likely to be low. The figures are not very sought after, and can be had for £1.20-£1.50.

    As a set to expand a castle it is reasonable but not great due to the minimal size. It is a small army expansion pack, but the other one at £4 is better for that.

    At £8 I'd buy a few for personal use, but not for resale.

    2 completely different opinions, thanks both. Im still unsure i may just grab a couple and part one out and see how it goes.

    I did manage to get all the #75002 the other day as at £9 for star wars I thought that was too good to leave on the shelf. Other items my store had included...

    #70002 £8.85
    #70001 £6.35

    Any thoughts on these?

    @ccc or @dad?
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    Wouldn't touch them with a bargepole. And the differing opinions depend on what you're going to do with them. I would have sold all mine within a month at £13, no shipping hassle, no fees.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    I wouldn't bother with the Chima sets. If you part them out, £1.50 - £2.00 for the minifigs and a whole load of parts that don't sell very well.

    BL prices for olive parts look good, but bear in mind there are loads of these cheap sets and you have to go way under six month average to sell them.
  • TheBrickLaddTheBrickLadd Member Posts: 844
    Just got back and they had re-stocked the star wars set so bought a few more, left the Chima sets though and didnt both with castle.

    I may sit on the star wars for a bit. We shall see.
  • Pate5346Pate5346 Member Posts: 889
    @CCC & @Dad‌
    Do you think that #75002 would do good in longer run If you have bought it for £8 - £9?
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    Chima is DOA in my opinion. I picked up a few #70006 at 60% off and can't get 75% RRP.
    Pitfall69
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    ^ and ^^ Never touched a Chima set, not one. #75002 I can go and pick up now for £8.85 but won't touch that either. #6857 @ £30 and #10197 @ £70 are more my type of thing.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^^Yes, it took me loads of time to buy, sell and pack 3 sets last week for a profit of $280 :p

    Oh, and I REALLY love Lego :)

    3 sets is pretty good for a $280 profit, however, I wouldn't expect most newcomers to be able to do that. I've been getting 50%-75% profit fairly easy after a year or two, but I don't really consider it as great investing. 200-300% profit after a year or two would be ideal, and with the ability to do it to the scale you want is what is appealing about real investing.

    It just seems a little smoother to invest 10K into a really good stock than buy 50 Imperial Shuttles, store them appropriately, wait a year, and them spend time selling them on various websites. It might not seem like much time is consumed to buy, sell and pack sets, but if you do enough it will take a lot of time.

    I'm not criticizing reselling, I still do it too, mostly because I still love Lego, but I am spending much more time looking at other opportunities to make money now.
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    wagnerml2 said:

    Chima is DOA in my opinion. I picked up a few #70006 at 60% off and can't get 75% RRP.

    Dead On Arrival?

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    I do not, nor ever have, liked Chima on the whole, but even I gotta admit that those spider figs (the ones with the attached body) are pretty impressive. I do think one will enter my Halloween display.

    Thus ends my caring about Chima.
    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    Pate5346 said:

    @CCC & @Dad‌
    Do you think that #75002 would do good in longer run If you have bought it for £8 - £9?

    Possibly, but I'm too old to know anything about Clone Wars. Yoda will sell well on his own one at a time, but would he sell a whole set. He will also be redone. I haven't a clue about the other bits of that set!

    In my fairly limited experience, for smaller sets it is the generic army builders that sell well as you can sell multiple sets to one person, so they get a break on the postage costs too. Uruk army, SW battle packs, etc. Compare the number of people that want ten Yodas to those that want ten stormtroopers.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Dougout said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^^Yes, it took me loads of time to buy, sell and pack 3 sets last week for a profit of $280 :p

    Oh, and I REALLY love Lego :)

    3 sets is pretty good for a $280 profit, however, I wouldn't expect most newcomers to be able to do that. I've been getting 50%-75% profit fairly easy after a year or two, but I don't really consider it as great investing. 200-300% profit after a year or two would be ideal, and with the ability to do it to the scale you want is what is appealing about real investing.

    It just seems a little smoother to invest 10K into a really good stock than buy 50 Imperial Shuttles, store them appropriately, wait a year, and them spend time selling them on various websites. It might not seem like much time is consumed to buy, sell and pack sets, but if you do enough it will take a lot of time.

    I'm not criticizing reselling, I still do it too, mostly because I still love Lego, but I am spending much more time looking at other opportunities to make money now.
    You are fine. I'm just being me ;)

    I sold (1) Imperial Shuttle and (2) Maersk Trains. Very little work for me.

    DougoutTheLoneTensor
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited March 2014
    There appears to be a general consensus that the words "Chima" and "aftermarket" do not go together. Aside from perhaps a rare set or two, I concur.

    Someone at TLG was using peyote when they came up with this theme...
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    My son likes watching the Chima cartoon but isn't terribly interested in the sets. I'm not sure if any of the sets will do well down the road.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I have personally purchased some of the Chima sets just for the set and parts. all have been 50% off or better with very few exceptions (the lion temple I think I got for 35-40% off). I really like the quirky minifigures and think several of the sets are interesting, but also don't see it as a big winner for investment.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    @mathbuilder - DOA = Dead on Arrival. Correct!
    Pitfall69MathBuilder
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited March 2014
    wagnerml2 said:

    @mathbuilder - DOA = Dead on Arrival. Correct!

    Hopefully Chima came with a DNR as well ;)

  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    Do not resuscitate.
    Two acronyms added to my vocabulary in one day. And just when I thought I was fully learned in the art of acronymizing everything LEGO related. Now I will go sell some recently EOLed FBs to earn money to BL some MOCs with a lot of SNOT and BURPs and LURPs to bring to the next AFOL convention or at least a LUG meeting. Hopefully, I won't get too many NPBs, else I'll have to leave them negative FB.
    Pitfall69SupersympakhmellymelLegoboyBuriedinBricks
  • roxioroxio Member Posts: 1,384
    @Pate5346 I think #75002 will do very well.
    4 figures, 3 currently exclusive.
    501st Legion trooper will be gold if not done again. Could sell as armies of the AT-RT with 501st.
    Yoda will always be in demand, though sales would be individual.
    Battle droid and Droideka = army sellers as well.
    If not parting out then once EOL I'll be expecting £30+
    ChompersPate5346
  • Pate5346Pate5346 Member Posts: 889
    edited March 2014
    Thanks @‌roxio
    I didn't look at it from the point of parting them out. Which would be a option too in the future.
    I've got about eight at the moment just wasn't sure if there is a point to get more.
    Maybe I should.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    MathBuilder said:

    Do not resuscitate.
    Two acronyms added to my vocabulary in one day. And just when I thought I was fully learned in the art of acronymizing everything LEGO related. Now I will go sell some recently EOLed FBs to earn money to BL some MOCs with a lot of SNOT and BURPs and LURPs to bring to the next AFOL convention or at least a LUG meeting. Hopefully, I won't get too many NPBs, else I'll have to leave them negative FB.

    Everything medical I learned from watching ER.
    DanGP
  • timinchicagotiminchicago Member Posts: 239
    Jabba's Palace #9516 is now "Call to Check" at US [email protected] with a "Sale Price" of $95.18. This has the feeling of finality to it.
    FollowsClosely
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    ^ As well as all the resellers here ;o)
    FollowsClosely
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    edited March 2014
    RomanticWarrior said:

    ^and there was much rejoicing among the Austrian Turkish Cultural Committee.

    yay.

    Although now they will probably be insulted about how much they have to pay if they want one, and how lego is racist for not keeping it in production.
    timinchicagoJeffHLegoFanTexaspharmjodJawascrump
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Over the past year, I've been wondering about the aftermarket value of SW sets. Sure...some of the larger sets (e.g., Imperial Shuttle) will do well, but the smaller sets just seem to be repetitive. Maybe the next wave of movies will breath some life back into this theme, but from a resellers standpoint it just seems that one can do better with other themes...at least with the smaller sets.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    LEGO.com also has the #4429 Helicopter Rescue (hospital-like set) back in stock and on sale for $29.98, but on back order oddly enough
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks Member Posts: 1,367
    My feelings on most Star Wars sets comes down to four questions:
    -How big of a discount can I get it for?
    -Is it an exclusive or iconic vehicle?
    -Does it have any unique figures of iconic characters?
    -Has it been done before and will it likely be done again?

    Even sets that hit all four of those notes are not a guaranteed buy for me, but these are the benchmarks I feel must be met before I even considering stocking up on something.
    pharmjodroxioprevere
  • roxioroxio Member Posts: 1,384
    edited March 2014
    Farmer_John said:

    Over the past year, I've been wondering about the aftermarket value of SW sets. Sure...some of the larger sets (e.g., Imperial Shuttle) will do well, but the smaller sets just seem to be repetitive. Maybe the next wave of movies will breath some life back into this theme, but from a resellers standpoint it just seems that one can do better with other themes...at least with the smaller sets.

    Agree, a lot of duds, key is buying the right sets at right price. I'm in heavy on #9490 at £5, #9496 at £12, #9488 £4.50, will start selling these xmas 2014. The first two should be helped by the new Cantina and Sandcrawler sets as well.

    A few year's I bought any SW set at 30% off, now I'm a lot more careful.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited March 2014
    It used to be that the aftermarket was primarily driven by a single theme: Star Wars. With all the SW remakes and other themed sets TLG now has available, the SW theme has taken a dive. Success in the aftermarket appears to becoming more set (not theme) specific, and the winners are usually the result of an unexpected sellout. All that said, it's harder to predict a winner.

    I thought that #9526 was one SW set that would do pretty well, and almost purchased a couple back in December. The high RRP for this set caused me to hesitate, and it ended up being a good decision to wait. Those who purchased them at or near RRP will certainly not do as well as they could have after yesterday's TLG sale. I think resellers were backing up the truck last night based on how lethargic my my computer was acting while I was trying to place my order. Heck...I assumed (based on the mini-sale back in December) that this set was gone until I saw them show back up on TLG's website for 50% off last night.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    ^ Could be all the return from Toysrus ;)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    ^ #9526 was (at RRP) one of the most expensive sets (for what you get) that I've ever seen. Add the TRU premium on top and you have a virtual non-seller...
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    ^ The most expensive being #9516 I believe, only 72 more pieces than #9526 but $30 more. Did anyone actually buy that set at RRP?
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    rancorbait said:

    ^ The most expensive being #9516 I believe, only 72 more pieces than #9526 but $30 more. Did anyone actually buy that set at RRP?

    I'd hope not

    RRP is $200 AUD here. I paid $110 for mine, but it is widely available for $160.
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    So I've finished sorting out a craigslist lot and have three agents sets: #8637, #8968, #8631
    Which option do you think will garner the higher income? Sell now before the new agents sets are mass marketed or wait until the new sets are out and kids want the old ones as well?
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