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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I have to confess I am a little disappointed in the 2014 AT-AT and the Star Destroyer, but I guess they'll hit better price points than UCS would. Love the ghostbusters, but not sure how much long term value. It will be interesting to see lego in the future, as they have introduced more licenses in the last few years, than the previous 20. Will be curious to see if collectors will be looking backward for older items, or with the onslaught of yearly licenses will just keep buying the latest and greatest. Exciting times for lego enthusiasts though!

    Any idea why Simpsons wasn't done to minifig scale?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited February 2014
    jcb193 said:

    Any idea why Simpsons wasn't done to minifig scale?

    it's already $200 as is. Minifig scale would have blown the price out of the water for little to no appreciable difference that would matter to the majority of potential buyers. No reason to sacrifice so many sales to achieve that end. let's face it, the % of LEGO buyers who care about actual scale, realism, etc. is very low. for those that do, we just have to accept it and make MOCs to achieve the goal.

    Official designs, even Exclusives, are always about representing the essence of a set with an economical use of pieces. Piece count bloat to achieve realistic spacing or scale is adding cost without adding any perceived value to the bulk of buyers.

    LEGO model designs are never really about true realism. They are meant to be representative.

    JeffHTheLoneTensorYellowcastle
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I meant, why they didn't do simpson characters in the normal size for lego continuity. have they ever done minfigs of this size before? House could have been smaller. just curious why they would go with a totally different size scale.
    Bandit
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    the heads are the only thing different. iI'm assuming that was done in order to capture the iconic cartoon look of the characters they wouldn't look right with normal minifig heads
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    @basta understood very well :) parting out set and be able to sell properly that's a lot of work :). i only do that for smaller sets i.e. battlepacks LOL :D. which does not require lot of work :P LOL ..
    Basta said:

    Makes two of us. @Basta any left :) ? U r downunder right ? So ur 70% off equates to us msrp :D

    pharmjod said:

    I would have loved to find some Colby City Showdowns at 50% off. 70% off and I would have been plum giddy :) I also would love to know where on can get current exclusives for 27% as I"d buy a Sea Cow in a heart beat at $183ish.

    Yes, so taking exchange rates into account it was 50% off the US RRP.

    Half of the sets I acquired are actually for the parts to build a MOC, I have already sold some of the Minifigures at a price that once all the figs are sold will return my cost of those sets including postage and fees.

    The other half will be sold as sealed sets later on, as I don't think I really need 10000 pieces for a larger Colby City Bank & Sheriffs office, plus parting out sets and selling the minifigures takes a lot of work :)
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    @dorinsdad,

    sent you pm :)

    mathew said:

    I expect the seacow is on the no discount list so it is a no go for me.

    So you're saying that you can't make a phone call and get an "easy" 30% discount? ; )
    I can get them for 27% off. Would not touch it with a 10 foot pole unless I could wrangle 50-60% off tho...too many other great exclusives set to retire 2014 and 2015 that will crush the Seacow in the aftermarket.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,687
    edited February 2014
    jcb193 said:

    I meant, why they didn't do simpson characters in the normal size for lego continuity. have they ever done minfigs of this size before? House could have been smaller. just curious why they would go with a totally different size scale.

    dougts said:

    the heads are the only thing different. iI'm assuming that was done in order to capture the iconic cartoon look of the characters they wouldn't look right with normal minifig heads

    To add to the above, the bodies are regular minifig size, and the heads are larger as in the cartoon. If they had kept the regular minifig head sizes and gone to smaller bodies, they wouldn't be compatible with other minifig parts and they would be difficult to play with. Any larger, and they wouldn't be compatible with all the utensils and rest of the system parts. For me, they are fine as they are.
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 502
    ^Yes, just look at the horrible SpongeBob "Squidward" non-molded head. It's just plain wierd looking...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2014
    Out of curiosity, which sets that have been EOL'd after 2008 provide the highest percentage return based on the original RRP? I know that #10179, #10185, #10184, #10196, etc...are some easy picks. Are there smaller sets that have done exceptionally well based on their percentage return above RRP?
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    ^ The Agents Volcano Base did quite well I thought.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    #852293 Castle Giant Chess
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited February 2014
    #6866 in recent times comes to my mind.
    RRP was $19.99 [ brickset says EOL on 02 Dec 13 ] its lowest price in amazon is $64.93. after commission and shipping one would net about $48.00 }
    that's about 28.01 profit { assuming that Cost price was RRP. it was available for a long time for 16.16 :) }

    so over 140% return :) at RRP. { if you annualized it .. dyamn that's a lot :P but again its only 28.01 :P } not bad for a 19.99$ set .. won't you agree?

    Out of curiosity, which sets that have been EOL'd after 2008 provide the highest percentage return based on the original RRP? I know that #10179, #10185, #10184, #10196, etc...are some easy picks. Are there smaller sets that have done exceptionally well based on their percentage return above RRP?

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    this upsets me. I passed so many times on stocking up on those #6866. Stupid stupid
    Pitfall69starwarfan77YellowcastleBumblepants
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I'm actually surprised on how well Fire Brigade is doing. I saw one sold for $274 and Free Shipping. I mean, it isn't great, but if you got them for $111, that's not a bad return on a set that has been doomed to go anywhere shortly after EOL.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    Out of curiosity, which sets that have been EOL'd after 2008 provide the highest percentage return based on the original RRP? I know that #10179, #10185, #10184, #10196, etc...are some easy picks. Are there smaller sets that have done exceptionally well based on their percentage return above RRP?

    I asked for a list a week or so ago. Good luck ;)

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited February 2014
    Series 1 Zombie. $1.99 to $35. Or the whole series 1 for that matter. 16 figs for $1.99 each, turning $32 into a eye-popping $250.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited February 2014
    @doughts probably that's why it rose so fast and it was available for so long at that price (i.e. 16.16). simply because lot did not notice :P and don't get upset i am sure you have lot of winners in pallets :D

    @Pitfall69‌ #10197 it was 111$ almost a year ago. I think from annualized return perspective people who bought @ MSRP 149$ just before retirement probably more... no? @ msrp one would make about $37.67 where as @ 111$ its 75.67$ :D
    i still think #6866 won :D
    dougts said:

    this upsets me. I passed so many times on stocking up on those #6866. Stupid stupid

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2014

    #6866 in recent times comes to my mind.
    RRP was $19.99 [ brickset says EOL on 02 Dec 13 ] its lowest price in amazon is $64.93. after commission and shipping one would net about $48.00 }
    that's about 28.01 profit { assuming that Cost price was RRP. it was available for a long time for 16.16 :) }

    so over 140% return :) at RRP. { if you annualized it .. dyamn that's a lot :P but again its only 28.01 :P } not bad for a 19.99$ set .. won't you agree?

    Whoa! I was unaware both that #6866 was EOL'd and that it had risen so high! Dang! Glad I grabbed a couple...

    I would love to have purchased #852293 when I had a chance.

    As for the Series 1 Zombie, I was able to get one at the low, low price of about $10.00 back when the Series 1 were released but not widely available. Only got one though. That was back in the day when Series CMFs were only $1.99 in the USA; now TRU asks $3.99 (2X) plus tax...
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    @Farmer_John crap ... i should have asked for your inventory first LOL :D

    #6866 in recent times comes to my mind.
    RRP was $19.99 [ brickset says EOL on 02 Dec 13 ] its lowest price in amazon is $64.93. after commission and shipping one would net about $48.00 }
    that's about 28.01 profit { assuming that Cost price was RRP. it was available for a long time for 16.16 :) }

    so over 140% return :) at RRP. { if you annualized it .. dyamn that's a lot :P but again its only 28.01 :P } not bad for a 19.99$ set .. won't you agree?

    Whoa! I was unaware both that #6866 was EOL'd and that it had risen so high! Dang! Glad I grabbed a couple...

    I would love to have purchased #852293 when I had a chance.

    As for the Series 1 Zombie, I was able to get one at the low, low price of about $10.00 back when the Series 1 were released but not widely available. Only got one though. That was back in the day when Series CMFs were only $1.99 in the USA; now TRU asks $3.99 (2X) plus tax...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    I asked for a list a week or so ago. Good luck ;)

    You know it almost seems like it might be relatively easy for BS to include an algorithm that compares existing BIN offers with the original RRP. @Huw - can you get right on it? ;-)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,687
    It's brickset not brickpicker.
    Kanohi
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    CCC said:

    It's brickset not brickpicker.

    I'm not sure what your point is...can you elaborate?

    There is overlap between BP and BS (e.g., both provide a list of discounts at Amazon). Why wouldn't BS want to take hits away from another website? Personally, my hits on BS would increase if it provided simple reseller tools such as an easy way to compare current vs. RRP prices. In fact, I can think of dozens of types of useful queries related to the value (or potential value) of my collection.

    The alternative is me spending a bunch of time analyzing prices every time I'm curious about a particular set OR posting a question about it on BS that gets only a few responses. But maybe that's just me...
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    dougts said:

    this upsets me. I passed so many times on stocking up on those #6866. Stupid stupid

    I know where to get some. At Canadian RRP... ;o)

  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    Do I have that thread killing effect too? :oP
    Thanos75
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    @rancorbait‌ does that include free shipping :D

    dougts said:

    this upsets me. I passed so many times on stocking up on those #6866. Stupid stupid

    I know where to get some. At Canadian RRP... ;o)

  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    ^ Probably not... ;o)
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 502
    I think part of the answer to the question is whether you got sets on clearance or paid RRP.

    How about the Captain America Cycle set? I snagged a boatload for $6 from Walmart; sold all before Christmas this past year for $25 each (and probably could've held out for more). Also got the airport w/ the red plane for $69; sold for about $250. Probably the best in terms of quick return were STIG keychains; $2 a pop purchased in bulk; sold my last 5 for $35 each.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850

    I think part of the answer to the question is whether you got sets on clearance or paid RRP.

    I don't have any, but I know where I can get some at RRP.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    now that's a return many folds :D.... wish could happen with some grumpy $99 sets LOL :D ...
    prevere said:

    Series 1 Zombie. $1.99 to $35. Or the whole series 1 for that matter. 16 figs for $1.99 each, turning $32 into a eye-popping $250.

  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I actually have a copy of #6866 Picked it up from Fishpond.com cheap last year. Looks like the Wolverine figure is why it is so expensive, I suppose I should sell now before a new set with a Wolverine minifigure is released.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited February 2014
    is there another wolverine in the pipeline? even so, if there is substantial difference between them :D then the price will continue to rise :D
    Basta said:

    I actually have a copy of #6866 Picked it up from Fishpond.com cheap last year. Looks like the Wolverine figure is why it is so expensive, I suppose I should sell now before a new set with a Wolverine minifigure is released.

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Basta said:

    I actually have a copy of #6866 Picked it up from Fishpond.com cheap last year. Looks like the Wolverine figure is why it is so expensive, I suppose I should sell now before a new set with a Wolverine minifigure is released.

    I'm hanging on to mine until Christmas, at least. The Wolverine figure is expensive-ish (although sort of all over the place in terms of 'sold' price), but Deadpool looks to be the driving force behind the set, so I'm really not anticipating it taking a much of a hit (if any) when the new Wolverine shows up (even though I personally think the brown and yellow suit is much better).
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Price wise the last two to sell on eBay AU (in the last two weeks) were $99.99 + $15 Shipping, one before that $87. If I can get close to that I would be happy, don't think it would go much higher by Christmas.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I completely forgot that you're in Australia somehow. It's going for about $45 in the US right now, with Deadpool fetching ~$20 on his own.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Yeah, just before Christmas $50 seemed to be the price, I think RRP was $40 or $50. I got my one for about $22.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,687

    CCC said:

    It's brickset not brickpicker.

    I'm not sure what your point is...can you elaborate?

    There is overlap between BP and BS (e.g., both provide a list of discounts at Amazon). Why wouldn't BS want to take hits away from another website? Personally, my hits on BS would increase if it provided simple reseller tools such as an easy way to compare current vs. RRP prices. In fact, I can think of dozens of types of useful queries related to the value (or potential value) of my collection.

    The alternative is me spending a bunch of time analyzing prices every time I'm curious about a particular set OR posting a question about it on BS that gets only a few responses. But maybe that's just me...
    The primary purpose of this site is not reselling. For me, it would go against the ethos of the site. Sure many people here resell, but the focus is the sets not the profit trigger warnings.

    Plus as a tool it is not so useful. Items at BIN prices are not necessarily selling, and most resellers would not buy at RRP. As reseller tools such as this already exist on reseller focussed sites, why not use them there. A better tool would allow you to input your buying price and what current selling BIN prices are. And of course such a tool is only as good as the data it scalps. Someone would have to manually sort through the BIN data to find out if the item being sold is complete, new, damaged, cheap due to price being offset by postage, dropship scams, etc.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Basta said:

    I actually have a copy of #6866 Picked it up from Fishpond.com cheap last year. Looks like the Wolverine figure is why it is so expensive, I suppose I should sell now before a new set with a Wolverine minifigure is released.

    This is a part of the equation I see a lot of people missing, i.e. striking while the iron is hot. Not unlike if you're in a casino and "up" in your winnings, knowing when to walk away is how you will win. The longer you play, the more likely the house wins. The longer you hold onto a set, the more likely something will happen to it, or the market for it will adjust, or a comparable, traditional investment would have overtaken it.

    So this Wolverine thing. I was surprised at its ascent also, but there it is. So, do you hold onto it thinking it'll go higher, or do you dump and grab the good return? What if a new fig comes out (which is totally likely). If you take out the emotion or personal attachment, the smart money is on take the profits and run.

    The Architecture Studio is another prime and relatively unique example. It looked like this thing was out for a tiny bit with limited distribution, then gone. The price skyrocketed as a result. Now ta da! It's back, and gone are the days when you could have gotten up to $400 for it. Those days may return if it goes again quickly, who knows. At least as of today, people who waited on selling their Architecture Studios left upwards of $200 on the table.

    I feel this is indicative of what could happen if #10179 is rereleased/rebooted. I fully believe that the "first edition" will always command a higher price, but if another gets released, how much potential money did you lose (or rather, not gain) as a result of waiting to sell your copy?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    Much like global warming can trigger a cooling trend, reselling can turn someone into a dedicated collector. I think we've seen that on Brickset many times, and it's great to read about the transformation.
    Dougout
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,687
    edited February 2014
    Deadpool is the one holding the value, not Wolverine although Wolverine is up there. Wolverine is being redone, albeit in a different form. Magneto is still reasonably cheap.

    I just checked my past purchases of it - I bought six at £9.50 (why didn't I buy 10?). I parted five of them out for an instant flip, keeping all the parts for myself, selling the minifigs. That just about covered my costs and I got a load of dark red and black parts and a set for free. I've also still got 2x Deadpool and 1x Magneto left as I couldn't even shift these for £3.50 each 8-10 months ago. How those prices have risen. From an investment point of view I probably shouldn't have parted them out, but then I did want all the dark red and black parts and the minifigs were always going to cover my costs.
    mrseatle
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Good point about Deadpool. Funny you mention about the colors too, as I cracked open one of those for that same reason, the dark red (and you can always use more black). Something about the dark colors really does it for me.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,117
    Its talk like this that makes it really really hard to not be a reseller. I'm in the process of packing and moving my LEGO collection. Its hard to not look at the stackes of unopened boxes and totes filled with bricks and not put a price tag on things. I'm sure once I get my LEGO room set up and I actually have the room to build all things I have planned then the feeling will pass.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 961
    ^ or not :) I am building a Lego room now and I am most likely going to sell 1/3 of our sorted sets and 1/3 of our loose blocks. It's just too cluttered, too much to keep organized and neat.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    @Thanos75‌ now these kind of gains are very limited sets :D we haven't talked about doomed sets. i am sure there are tons more like that than these few successful ones...
    Thanos75 said:

    Its talk like this that makes it really really hard to not be a reseller. I'm in the process of packing and moving my LEGO collection. Its hard to not look at the stackes of unopened boxes and totes filled with bricks and not put a price tag on things. I'm sure once I get my LEGO room set up and I actually have the room to build all things I have planned then the feeling will pass.

  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    lets talk about potentials for
    #75000
    #75001
    #9488
    #9489
    #9493
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    #6866 was around $15 or less for what felt like forever last year. I parted out a million, only kept 8. My non-AFOL friend once pointed out to me the cultlike desirability of Deadpool when he accompanied me on a run. He knows pop cults, I know Lego. But I should have taken more heed.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    About a month ago I made brickset order to grab some parts to improve upon #79111 (I like black instead of gray on the train). Anyway, the guy I was purchasing from had a minimum order limit and on a whim I picked up a Deadpool MF to put me over the threshold. The only reason I grabbed him was because he was so inexpensive and I though he would add some color to my MF display case. Little did I know...

    I think I only purchased three of the #6866 sets because I like to focus my hard earned cash on sets that depreciate after they are retired.
    Kanohipharmjod
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,707
    edited February 2014
    I got my three #6866 sets when TRU had their sale SNAFU some time ago when these just came out. So I got them at a great price. Only got three thinking I would get more before EOL.. Oh well. Then again it is that thinking by many that is probably why they are climbing in price so dramatically.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    See, I had #6866 pegged as a good value quite a while back and picked several up when Amazon had them at ~25% off. I'm down to my last one and have been easily selling them at $50 shipped on ebay.

    I was pretty confident most of the $20 sets from the first wave would do well. However, #6867 is probably getting hurt by the fact that all of the figs were released in other sets. I think #6862 will do well, if it ever actually retires.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    #6866 was around $15 or less for what felt like forever last year. I parted out a million, only kept 8. My non-AFOL friend once pointed out to me the cultlike desirability of Deadpool when he accompanied me on a run. He knows pop cults, I know Lego. But I should have taken more heed.

    To this point, I actually hadn't purchased any #6866 for resale until we cleaned out a closet over the summer and I sold a bunch of old (loose) Marvel Legends action figures on eBay. I got around $20 for most of them, but Deadpool sold for nearly $130. That's about the time I decided #6866 might be worth stocking up on.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 961
    ^ Thanks for sharing this now :)
    y2joshkim43235
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