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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited February 2014
    I personally like the Metalbeard set quite a bit. He's a fun model to build and display. I'm ho-hum on the rest of the theme including the Sea Cow. The Sea Cow is a set that my son would love to play with, but the design is too cluttered and fragile. I wish they would have made a smaller, less detailed, $100 version to coexist with the larger one.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    ^^ *play
  • VaderXVaderX Member Posts: 220
    It's funny how everyone acts like a rehash of 10179 would be a surprise. How many Star Wars sets are rehashed every year?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    VaderX said:

    It's funny how everyone acts like a rehash of 10179 would be a surprise. How many Star Wars sets are rehashed every year?

    Prior to 10240 many believed no UCS set would ever be rehashed. Now that it has been, it is only a matter of time.

    10030 is also badly due for a rehash. The original is great in many respects, other than how fragile it is and how sparse the details on the back are, but otherwise, it is great. A modern version would be nice.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Of course, before 10179 and 10030 get rehashed, how about a proper UCS TIE Fighter? :)
    Yellowcastle
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    edited February 2014
    ^ That would be awesome! But we still need a UCS AT-AT too!
  • khmellymelkhmellymel Member Posts: 1,313
    edited February 2014
    Bandit said:

    While I think the break in the helmet is hilarious, I have to say, I must have had (and still have) at least 60 classic space minifigs growing up from 1979-1987, and not ONE helmet ever broke like that (or broke at all).

    So was I just the most anal, careful 4-12 year old ever?

    Did anyone else actually have a cracked helmet like that?

    Not all of mine, but certainly one or two.
  • vaspvasp Member Posts: 73
    21050 now on amazon
  • briziobrizio Member Posts: 31
    vasp said:

    21050 now on amazon

    Sold by Amazon or in marketplace only?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Pitfall69 said:

    hendrikdejager said:

    What are you guys expecting on The Lego Movie sets? I've seen that the second one is coming in 2017, by the time that releases the sets from the first movie wil raise.

    Set 70810 is a really beautiful set but is quite exspensive to make a 50% profit on. Need to buy this one on sale.

    I'm not expecting much from the majority of the sets. The Sea Cow is the best best for investment purposes. I also like Benny's Spaceship to do well, but it might be a crapshoot with most of the other sets.
    Right. I think there's a lot of risk in these movie sets, including the Sea Cow and Benny's ship. A lot of people are excited for them, I just don't think it's a no-brainer. It all depends on what you can pick them up for, and how long you're willing to hold onto them. Three years is a long time.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    I don't see them doing all that well as a series. There is a lot of current buzz, but the film is hot right now. In a year's time, there will be less interest and the sets will probably still be available.
    cloaked7Bumblepants
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Sea cow will be ok when it's discontinued, I'm going on the piece count though being massive :)
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I really think the 2in1 sets will be the ones that will double the fastest. They are great to have for your city and its very unlikely that they will ever do a plumbing or ice cream truck again.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited February 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    hendrikdejager said:

    What are you guys expecting on The Lego Movie sets? I've seen that the second one is coming in 2017, by the time that releases the sets from the first movie wil raise.

    Set 70810 is a really beautiful set but is quite exspensive to make a 50% profit on. Need to buy this one on sale.

    I'm not expecting much from the majority of the sets. The Sea Cow is the best best for investment purposes. I also like Benny's Spaceship to do well, but it might be a crapshoot with most of the other sets.

    BTW, is Benny's helmet molded with a break in it?

    Id say the seacow was more of a crapshoot, yes its a pirateship but its a bit too quirky for most folks and is one of those sets you either love or hate.

    Bennys spaceship has that classic space look of the 1970's with a modern twist, whats not to like about that?

    Also its also one of those sets that even though its tied to a movie its still a solid set in its own right, by that i mean if the seacow wasnt tied to the lego movie and was an unlicensed set would you still buy it?

    Plus we all know how popular 1970's space sets are.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I am not expecting anything from The Movie line either...give it another month or two and retailers will be discounting it like it was lone ranger. I expect the seacow is on the no discount list so it is a no go for me.
    VaderX
  • vaspvasp Member Posts: 73
    brizio said:

    vasp said:

    21050 now on amazon



    Sold by Amazon or in marketplace only?
    by amazon

  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    I'm not sold on the Sea Cow either. One for personal collection, yes, but beyond that I'm skeptical. It's a hefty tag and high risk for a quirky, awkward, potentially forgettable model. I might feel differently if the sails weren't Technic panels.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Legofanscott said:

    Bennys spaceship has that classic space look of the 1970's with a modern twist, whats not to like about that?

    Also its also one of those sets that even though its tied to a movie its still a solid set in its own right, by that i mean if the seacow wasnt tied to the lego movie and was an unlicensed set would you still buy it?

    Plus we all know how popular 1970's space sets are.

    The only thing I don't like about Benny's ship is that it's basically a warship. Now when I was a kid, I made everything a warship, with unnecessary lasers and missiles everywhere, because that's fun, of course. But looking back now, the thing I liked most about classic space was that it was all about exploration and discovery.
    Yellowcastlebinaryeye
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    ^ If I know anything about kids (especially boys) its that they love to destroy things! I used to make Lego guns with 2x4 bricks, heck I'd even chew my sandwich into the shape of a gun!
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    edited February 2014
    I think we may see some discounts on the Lego movie sets, but comparing it I the Lone Ranger is laughable. It is a boxoffice critical and popular success. Kids didn't care about TLR and neither did most adults. I think it will be a while before we see massive discounts on TLM sets, if ever. Metalbeard is one I think will do ok just because it is so fun.
    margot
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited February 2014
    ^The Lego Movie is obviously more successful than TLR movie. However, I'm skeptical that automatically translates into sales of the movie sets. It's possible people see the movie and want Lego sets, but not necessarily the movie sets. I guess we'll find out soon enough, based on discounting (or lack thereof) of the movie sets.
    dougts
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Of course, before 10179 and 10030 get rehashed, how about a proper UCS TIE Fighter? :)

    The Tie Fighter is such a boring design. Aside from size what possibly could a UCS Tie Fighter offer over the current one?
    TheLoneTensor said:

    Legofanscott said:

    Bennys spaceship has that classic space look of the 1970's with a modern twist, whats not to like about that?

    Also its also one of those sets that even though its tied to a movie its still a solid set in its own right, by that i mean if the seacow wasnt tied to the lego movie and was an unlicensed set would you still buy it?

    Plus we all know how popular 1970's space sets are.

    The only thing I don't like about Benny's ship is that it's basically a warship. Now when I was a kid, I made everything a warship, with unnecessary lasers and missiles everywhere, because that's fun, of course. But looking back now, the thing I liked most about classic space was that it was all about exploration and discovery.
    Yeah, that's why I appreciate the Classic Space sets. To be honest aside from the nostalgic nods I'm not that enamored with Benny's Spaceship. I may pick it up at a 30% discount (and I have the money) but it's not a must have set.

    I actually think the 2014 Summer Star Wars wave is the one to invest in. The Cantina, Star Destroyer and AT-AT being the ones I would put money on. That Jedi Scout Fighter is a great ship. Despite it not being canon I think it might do well based on the minifigs.
    dougts
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    I don't see the movie sets, beyond perhaps Sea Cow and Spaceship, as having much if any long term potential. In a few years, they will be the same as any other LEGO one and done theme.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited February 2014
    dougts said:

    I don't see the movie sets, beyond perhaps Sea Cow and Spaceship, as having much if any long term potential. In a few years, they will be the same as any other LEGO one and done theme.

    They'll hold more value than say Alien Conquest or Pharoah's Quest. I mean they are affiliated with "THE" Lego Movie and not Prince of Persia.
    A lot of resellers are hot on The Lone Ranger and I just don't see it performing that well long term. All Lego has to do is release another steam locomotive and the Constitution Train is another Toy Story train.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    I just saw Sea Cow in the flesh today for the first time. WAAAAAYYYYY over priced (I know "piece count"), but $250 is a hefty price for that.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    doriansdad said:

    I expect the seacow is on the no discount list so it is a no go for me.

    So you're saying that you can't make a phone call and get an "easy" 30% discount? ; )
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2014
    rancorbait said:

    I used to make Lego guns with 2x4 bricks, heck I'd even chew my sandwich into the shape of a gun!

    Sadly, that would not go over well in the school cafeteria today. Even a P&J gun is perceived by some to be a bad thing.

  • rancorbaitrancorbait Member Posts: 1,842
    I know, its ridiculous! As is the whole firearms issue. Guns aren't bad, the people that use them for murder are.
  • bricktuarybricktuary Member Posts: 987
    I see the BTTF Cuusoo sets are still available. Anyone have any idea how many might be around? Many more than the 10,000 original run I'd assume.
    But it's days must be limited, right?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    cloaked7 said:

    rancorbait said:

    I used to make Lego guns with 2x4 bricks, heck I'd even chew my sandwich into the shape of a gun!

    Sadly, that would not go over well in the school cafeteria today. Even a P&J gun is perceived by some to be a bad thing.

    Was that a Meet the Robinson's reference? If so, rock on (what an underrated movie).
    mathew said:

    They'll hold more value than say Alien Conquest or Pharoah's Quest. I mean they are affiliated with "THE" Lego Movie and not Prince of Persia.

    And by "they will" that you mean "there's a chance they might."
    mathew said:

    A lot of resellers are hot on The Lone Ranger and I just don't see it performing that well long term. All Lego has to do is release another steam locomotive and the Constitution Train is another Toy Story train.

    Again, I greatly appreciate any and all competition that doesn't get on the Constitution Train...train.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    Farmer_John said:

    I would fully expect the difference between #10179 and any future exclusive release will be that #10179 was discounted at some point; a future exclusive release won't be...

    Well unless a new UCS MF was RRP at 2K or higher, I think the price will come down on the original.
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Bandit said:

    So was I just the most anal, careful 4-12 year old ever?

    Yes.
    Bandit said:

    Did anyone else actually have a cracked helmet like that?

    Yes, as in, all of them... I remember that break very well, they all broke like that, but I guess I was a kid who just played with his toys and never thought about their value. :)
    Mine did not all have cracks in the helmet, but most were missing their gold icon. But I have bought LEGO lots where space was included and the figures look like they just came out of the box. Perfect helmets and gold icons still.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited February 2014
    mathew said:

    doriansdad said:

    I expect the seacow is on the no discount list so it is a no go for me.

    So you're saying that you can't make a phone call and get an "easy" 30% discount? ; )
    I can get them for 27% off. Would not touch it with a 10 foot pole unless I could wrangle 50-60% off tho...too many other great exclusives set to retire 2014 and 2015 that will crush the Seacow in the aftermarket.

  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    mathew said:

    dougts said:

    I don't see the movie sets, beyond perhaps Sea Cow and Spaceship, as having much if any long term potential. In a few years, they will be the same as any other LEGO one and done theme.

    They'll hold more value than say Alien Conquest or Pharoah's Quest. I mean they are affiliated with "THE" Lego Movie and not Prince of Persia.
    A lot of resellers are hot on The Lone Ranger and I just don't see it performing that well long term. All Lego has to do is release another steam locomotive and the Constitution Train is another Toy Story train.
    The problem though is how many sets have they made and how popular will it be in 3-4 years. Now is not the time to stock up, unless you find them at serious discount.
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 217
    What exclusives do you believe will be retiring this year? I had a good Christmas and have the majority of the current sets I'm interested in so I'm thinking about buying a couple to sell to help offset the price of some retired sets I'd like.
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    mathew said:

    dougts said:

    I don't see the movie sets, beyond perhaps Sea Cow and Spaceship, as having much if any long term potential. In a few years, they will be the same as any other LEGO one and done theme.

    They'll hold more value than say Alien Conquest or Pharoah's Quest. I mean they are affiliated with "THE" Lego Movie and not Prince of Persia.
    I dunno. The sets themselves, out of the context of the movie, are really odd and not in and of themselves all that intriguing. Once interest in the movie fades in the next 6 to 12 months, is anyone going to be any more after these than they are random city sets, or PQ, or AC? I'm not seeing it. But time will tell.

  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    I am able to pick up a 10182 - Cafe Corner (Original Box / Instructions / Bricks) for €320 ($440). Is it worth the investment?
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    doriansdad said:

    mathew said:

    doriansdad said:

    I expect the seacow is on the no discount list so it is a no go for me.

    So you're saying that you can't make a phone call and get an "easy" 30% discount? ; )
    I can get them for 27% off. Would not touch it with a 10 foot pole unless I could wrangle 50-60% off tho...too many other great exclusives set to retire 2014 and 2015 that will crush the Seacow in the aftermarket.

    Please PM me and let me know how you get exclusives for 27% off. I'd love that deal.

    Pitfall69
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    hendrikdejager said:

    I am able to pick up a 10182 - Cafe Corner (Original Box / Instructions / Bricks) for €320 ($440). Is it worth the investment?

    An investment for what, to resell later? Only you can answer that question, because only you know what return you will consider to be worthy of your time.
  • bluedragonbluedragon Member Posts: 506
    There are a lot of exclusives I would buy tomorrow for 27% off. I would be happy with 20% on most of them. Can you share @doriansdad?
    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    hendrikdejager said:

    I am able to pick up a 10182 - Cafe Corner (Original Box / Instructions / Bricks) for €320 ($440). Is it worth the investment?

    Also depends on the condition - and make sure no parts have been substituted.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited February 2014
    ^Well, he said all original parts, but that is vague. $440 USD seems like a sweet deal considering they are going for more without a box/manuals and substituted pieces.

    @hendrikdejager It would have already been in my home. What are you waiting for???
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    nkx1 said:

    ^The Lego Movie is obviously more successful than TLR movie. However, I'm skeptical that automatically translates into sales of the movie sets. It's possible people see the movie and want Lego sets, but not necessarily the movie sets. I guess we'll find out soon enough, based on discounting (or lack thereof) of the movie sets.

    Of the Brand Stores I've spoken to over the past couple of weeks, they have all said something similar. They can moreorless tell what time the LEGO Movie showings are on at the cinema. Every couple of hours they'd have a stampede of kids with parents fighting over each other to grap the related sets. After they'd left, the staff raced against the clock to restock the shelves. It went all last week during the school holidays. They'd never experienced anything like it. This week it's back to the solitary parent wondering in for a nose in a TLR style.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    Although I agree that TLR sets will not do anything extraordinary (with the exception maybe being the Train). I do think that the theme will actually do better long term then many think, it is not going to be in the league of say the "Cars" or "Toy Story" sets IMO.

    As has been said before the price you pay for a set is what's important, I recently purchased a number of Colby City Showdown sets at 70% off, no real idea where this set will get too, but I'm sure I'll do fine.
    TheLoneTensor
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I would have loved to find some Colby City Showdowns at 50% off. 70% off and I would have been plum giddy :) I also would love to know where on can get current exclusives for 27% as I"d buy a Sea Cow in a heart beat at $183ish.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    Makes two of us. @Basta any left :) ? U r downunder right ? So ur 70% off equates to us msrp :D
    pharmjod said:

    I would have loved to find some Colby City Showdowns at 50% off. 70% off and I would have been plum giddy :) I also would love to know where on can get current exclusives for 27% as I"d buy a Sea Cow in a heart beat at $183ish.

    Yellowcastle
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    edited February 2014
    Legoboy said:

    nkx1 said:

    ^The Lego Movie is obviously more successful than TLR movie. However, I'm skeptical that automatically translates into sales of the movie sets. It's possible people see the movie and want Lego sets, but not necessarily the movie sets. I guess we'll find out soon enough, based on discounting (or lack thereof) of the movie sets.

    Of the Brand Stores I've spoken to over the past couple of weeks, they have all said something similar. They can moreorless tell what time the LEGO Movie showings are on at the cinema. Every couple of hours they'd have a stampede of kids with parents fighting over each other to grap the related sets. After they'd left, the staff raced against the clock to restock the shelves. It went all last week during the school holidays. They'd never experienced anything like it. This week it's back to the solitary parent wondering in for a nose in a TLR style.
    sure, no one denies it's a hot hot ticket right now. Check back in a year. The DVD/Blu Ray release will have long since come and gone. The movie will be out of most people's minds. Are people who didn't buy sets between last month and mid-year all of a sudden going to discover the movie and the sets and create some huge aftermarket demand? Color me skeptical.

    Immediate big sales on huge hit movie merchandise don't necessarily mean long term 2x to 3x RRP after retirement. most people move on to the "next big thing". Enduring franchises like SW and HP are by far the exception, not the rule. look at PotC. Big series. Huge success. merchandise sales are pretty much nil now. Heck, look at Cars. Cars merchandise has been a runaway hit for Disney since the movie came out, and continues to be. but even then we don't see much in the way of aftermarket demand for the LEGO sets.

  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    edited February 2014
    starwarfan77 said:

    Makes two of us. @Basta any left :) ? U r downunder right ? So ur 70% off equates to us msrp :D

    pharmjod said:

    I would have loved to find some Colby City Showdowns at 50% off. 70% off and I would have been plum giddy :) I also would love to know where on can get current exclusives for 27% as I"d buy a Sea Cow in a heart beat at $183ish.

    Yes, so taking exchange rates into account it was 50% off the US RRP.

    Half of the sets I acquired are actually for the parts to build a MOC, I have already sold some of the Minifigures at a price that once all the figs are sold will return my cost of those sets including postage and fees.

    The other half will be sold as sealed sets later on, as I don't think I really need 10000 pieces for a larger Colby City Bank & Sheriffs office, plus parting out sets and selling the minifigures takes a lot of work :)
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    I have to confess I am a little disappointed in the 2014 AT-AT and the Star Destroyer, but I guess they'll hit better price points than UCS would. Love the ghostbusters, but not sure how much long term value. It will be interesting to see lego in the future, as they have introduced more licenses in the last few years, than the previous 20. Will be curious to see if collectors will be looking backward for older items, or with the onslaught of yearly licenses will just keep buying the latest and greatest. Exciting times for lego enthusiasts though!

    Any idea why Simpsons wasn't done to minifig scale?
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    edited February 2014
    jcb193 said:

    Any idea why Simpsons wasn't done to minifig scale?

    it's already $200 as is. Minifig scale would have blown the price out of the water for little to no appreciable difference that would matter to the majority of potential buyers. No reason to sacrifice so many sales to achieve that end. let's face it, the % of LEGO buyers who care about actual scale, realism, etc. is very low. for those that do, we just have to accept it and make MOCs to achieve the goal.

    Official designs, even Exclusives, are always about representing the essence of a set with an economical use of pieces. Piece count bloat to achieve realistic spacing or scale is adding cost without adding any perceived value to the bulk of buyers.

    LEGO model designs are never really about true realism. They are meant to be representative.

    JeffHTheLoneTensorYellowcastle
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    I meant, why they didn't do simpson characters in the normal size for lego continuity. have they ever done minfigs of this size before? House could have been smaller. just curious why they would go with a totally different size scale.
    Bandit
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