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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Ah, yep. That's the one. My mind is a little... stretchy now.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    Can I ass you a question? Where are they 30% off?
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    Amazon US.

    And thanks, @Brickarmor -- I'm a fan of getting a set for about the same price as what it costs to buy one of its included minifigs.
    Pitfall69
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    @pitfall69 Yes, Amazon, butt also at Target.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    edited February 2014
    Well, I butt er put some money ass ide, so I can buy a few.
    margot
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    #76004 looked much better when Venom was exclusive. The Juniors release may hold it back some. I have a few.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    A few things:

    What are your thoughts about the new Arctic Theme? Does anyone think this will drum up interest in the old Arctic sets?

    I'm thinking about unloading my UCS Millennium Falcon. Has it reached its peak or is the sky still the limit?

    Do people really think The Lego Movie has people coming out if their Dark Ages to buy Lego sets?
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,044
    edited February 2014
    Pitfall69 said:

    A few things:

    What are your thoughts about the new Arctic Theme? Does anyone think this will drum up interest in the old Arctic sets?

    I'm thinking about unloading my UCS Millennium Falcon. Has it reached its peak or is the sky still the limit?

    Do people really think The Lego Movie has people coming out if their Dark Ages to buy Lego sets?

    Not really and Probably Yes and Yes. So trade me your UCS Falcon for my old Arctic sets. I even have a few extra green and blue Arctic minifigs I will throw in to sweeten the deal!
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselyy2josh
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    Pitfall69 said:


    What are your thoughts about the new Arctic Theme? Does anyone think this will drum up interest in the old Arctic sets?

    I think it's a cool theme that unfortunately due to it being 'City' is kind of juniorized. I may pick up the Base Camp when it goes on sale and modify it a bit.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    The new Polar Bear is a must.
    VaderX
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,479
    I think the Arctic sets are nice, but I will wait to see if they go on discount (I'm guessing they will). Is TRU or anyone going to have an exclusive set for this line?
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    edited February 2014
    ^^ Not ass much of a must ass the new dewback! ;o)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    ^Well, of course the Dewback :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    edited February 2014

    ^^ Not ass much of a must ass the new dewback! ;o)

    "Back door, huh? Good idea!"
    rancorbait
  • vaspvasp USAMember Posts: 73
    wm has a few technic sets at about 20% off
    •LEGO Technic Rock Crawler Building Set $159.99
    •LEGO Technic Mobile Crane MK II Building Set $173.58
    •LEGO Technic Service Truck Building Set $98.56
  • JawascrumpJawascrump Member Posts: 112
    Apologies that this isn't yoga related (!) but, what is the concencous of opinion on #70503? I managed to score 3 for £13.99. Wondering if I should grab some more as it's 44% off and maybe will EOL soonish?
    Fwiw I have zero interest in Ninjago, but I've seen great growth on sets like the Ice Dragon and Lightening Dragon...
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,147
    edited February 2014
    I doubt it will go up like the other dragons. I think the current amazon deal means quite a number are being stored up.

    They had over 500 at that price earlier, 84 still left. I'm willing to bet most of those bought today are for resale.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 901
    2521 Went 2.5 years ago and it sells just over retail now..
  • RomanticWarriorRomanticWarrior United StatesMember Posts: 248
    Honey!! Where are my yoga pants??
    margotRainstorm26
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    edited February 2014
    #70503 has consistently been about $25 or below since last summer, minus when Amazon was out of stock around the holidays. I don't think it will do poorly after it goes away, but I tend to agree that there are a lot of them tucked away for resale already.

    EDIT: After seeing the current UK price, I would not hesitate to pick up a few at that steep of a discount.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,147
    CCC said:


    They had over 500 at that price earlier, 84 still left. I'm willing to bet most of those bought today are for resale.

    Now 85 left. Who cancelled? :-)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2014
    Is the Ninjago theme still a viable aftermarket opportunity? My kids are still into SW and SH, but their interest in Ninjago has waned over the past year. Just curious...
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,887
    I personally am not buying it, but that is out of a lack of interest that I have in the theme. I still have a stack of epic dragon battles that I can't move at $99 with free shipping.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    pharmjod said:

    I still have a stack of epic dragon battles that I can't move at $99 with free shipping.

    Not surprising, considering Amazon has had that set at $80-$90 since early January.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited February 2014
    Has CN started airing the new season of Ninjago yet ?
    My son saw the new Mechdragon on display at LEGO store and he was not really impressed by it.
  • joch29joch29 Member Posts: 15
    ^2 new episodes aired early this month
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,887
    Not surprising, considering Amazon has had that set at $80-$90 since early January.
    Yeah I know. I have thought about lowering the price just to move them and take a little loss. I just don't see the set rising much above RRP and that will only be after it is long gone from all retail outlets. One of my misfires for sure. I had no idea the set would linger as long as it has.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^If that set had retired any time last year it might have still done fairly well. Looks pretty bleak as it is. #9446 looked like a "sure thing" too and it's still not even close to 2x RRP. Honestly both are really cool sets on their own merits: a four-headed dragon and a dragon ship are pretty unique. Of course we have no idea what the reception of the new season will be like, but I don't expect much.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited February 2014
    ^Just like many people have mentioned previously, there is still room for profit, even if EOL sets don't perform as anticipated. For instance, I bought all of my #9446 sets for about $65 (a somewhat modest discount) and sold them all for $140ish. So I still made a profit of at least $35 each after fees/shipping. What is worth my time? I think so. $35 for about 20 minutes of very easy work isn't half bad.
    pharmjod
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,246
    ^ I only bought 2 #9446 but got them at ~$37 and sold within few months for $100. Could have held out for more but I was happy. 154% profit after fees.
  • bricktuarybricktuary EuropeMember Posts: 470
    Having only just cracked mine open tonight, I can see #79111 doing very well. Trains are always popular and it's a good play set too with a good set of minifigs.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,479
    The key to 79111 doing well is the fact it is a true LEGO scale train (unlike the ghost train) with track. Will it go for crazy money? Consider TRU still has them for 119 (or whatever their ridiculous price is now) and many many people bought these are 60 or lower I would say that they may not go up as much as people think. Will they do well relative to what the may have cost people of they got them for 40-50% off? Sure, but if you are talking these hitting 200 I will say that while anything is possible, I think it is unlikely the more I think about it
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,147
    The Ghost Train was fairly unique in not being a real train. Most trains do run on track without modification. #79111 will have a problem rising if lego release another steam train, like a sister train to EN. Especially if it takes power functions as part of the design (whether included in the set or not).
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited February 2014

    The key to 79111 doing well is the fact it is a true LEGO scale train (unlike the ghost train) with track. Will it go for crazy money? Consider TRU still has them for 119 (or whatever their ridiculous price is now) and many many people bought these are 60 or lower I would say that they may not go up as much as people think. Will they do well relative to what the may have cost people of they got them for 40-50% off? Sure, but if you are talking these hitting 200 I will say that while anything is possible, I think it is unlikely the more I think about it

    I think $200 is a reasonable plateau, given that it's a full train playset with track - heck, price out the driver wheels, trucks and couplers alone and there's good value in this set simply for those parts. It has the not-easy-to-motorize aspect going against it, but offsetting that is the fact that it's a really nice looking (and as many have pointed out, not-toy-looking) western train, which makes it 100% unique (the Toy Story train doesn't exist in this dojo). Plus, it has an adorable version of one of the most violently destructive projectile weapons ever created by man. What's not to love?

    As for competition, I don't see Lego revisiting the old west for trains again so soon. If they did a steamer next - and they should, since they already did the sexy European EN, I would think a big black American locomotive from the 30's or 40's would be next on the block.

    And poor, poor Ghost Train. I still don't see what they were thinking making the carriages like they did. I get the flapping thing might have been more difficult on PF tracks, but to not make it compatible with your own system Lego, for shame.
    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    edited February 2014
    I am still comfortable with my $150 bet on #79111 by Christmas bet. It just needs to go, and go soon.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I think #79111 will hit $150...maybe by Christmas. It is probably one of the more diverse train sets that has been offered. It has several minifigures (with weapons), uses regular tracks, can be modified to include power functions, has a decent color scheme, came at a reasonable price point, wasn't available all that long, and...hey, it's a train. Additionally, it's perfect for some pretty neat MOCs including a BTTF 3 mock up.

    Someone mentioned the EN above, but #79111 and the EN just seem like two different markets to me.
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    ^Different markets and different time periods.
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    edited February 2014
    Quote going around:
    So, this is just a rumor at this point, I have no way of verifying it, however
    someone very reliable from Denmark emailed me that there is going to be a re-release
    of the UCS Millennium Falcon either at the end of 2014 or early 2015.

    He wasn't sure if it was going to be exactly the same as the previous release
    (I think that's unlikely, but you never know with LEGO) or a new design,
    but it was going to be an UCS set similar to this: http://www.bricklink.com/catalogItem.asp?S=10179-1
    If this is true, i call it the end of our business model.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I have no doubt that UCS Falcon will get redone at some point. Will it be that soon? Maybe, but I'd expect it to be closer to 10 years. Maybe even a 10 year anniversary event. 4 years is really quick for something like that, it only went out in May of 2010.
    FollowsCloselypharmjod
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,147
    ^ Not really. Even if you have eight year gaps between similar models, then people will want them in the meantime so there is still an opportunity for reselling. And there is no guarantee that every UCS set will be remade.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    edited February 2014
    The USC falcon will new redone, I agree. The release will not be linked to an anniversary of a lego set. It will be tied to a movie release or anniversary of a movie release. I do need to sell the few I have left. Anyone want a well cared for used USC falcon for 2k shipped?
  • bricktuarybricktuary EuropeMember Posts: 470
    I'm sure it will be redone. I'm not so sure what the impact will be on the original's price.

    Not a perfect analogy but people still collect the Beatles original vinyl pressings despite CDs coming out.

    It could lead to an increase in interest.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    Quote going around:

    So, this is just a rumor at this point, I have no way of verifying it, however

    Chasing rainbows again are we?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096

    Not a perfect analogy but people still collect the Beatles original vinyl pressings despite CDs coming out.

    As a former audiophile I can safely say that vinyl, especially well pressed and taken care of can sound much better than a CD. I used to own Sgt. Pepper on vinyl and there is no comparison to the CD. It's like technicolor vs. b&w.

  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    edited February 2014
    ^^ Indeed, apparently there is a pot of gold at the end ;o)

    The likelihood of the falcon being re-released is quite high in my opinion, being such an iconic vehicle, I'm surprised they didn't release a new one instead of the X-wing last year. I don't know why they would wait 10 years to release a new one, there is obviously high demand for one, and I can't see how sales would vary from now to 6 years later, unless of course the price was that much higher.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    I have a good feeling that the new films will feature the falcon. My guess is that we'll see a 2015 release.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    They've reprinted the 1952 topps Mickey Mantle on many occasions. Only the original holds its value. It's the rarity and authenticity of the object that matters to the collector. The original #10179 will always hold its value. It was Lego's version of the '52 Mantle
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I highly doubt they will re-release the 10179.

    I find it quite likely that they will release a large scale MF at some point, but completely redesigned. (think 7191 and 10240)
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    I would love to see 10179 rereleased as an exact copy, it would cheer me up no end, But also suspect that whilst a new UCS MF is likely at somepoint soonish it probably won't be a rerelease and probably will be smaller.

    With the system MF surely due to go soon having a UCS falcon to take its place might make sense. Perhaps it replaces the death star.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,044
    mathew said:

    I have a good feeling that the new films will feature the falcon. My guess is that we'll see a 2015 release.

    Spoiler Alert Yeah there was a recent photo published by Lucasfilm of the Ep7 guys gathered around a table with several pre-production type photos on the wall behind them including one with the Falcon barely visible. Almost certain to be in the film.

    I am betting on a large new Lego Falcon that will not be packaged as 'UCS' but will be similar enough in size to spawn 3-5 pages of heated forum debate as to whether or not it is truly 'UCS'.

    FollowsCloselyRomanticWarriorLegoboy
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