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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited February 2014
    I know someone is crunching numbers and will present us with a list soon. I've been doing taxes and 1099's for my businesses and all I see is numbers. My head hurts.

    #9465 The Zombies set comes to mind as a top performer. I'm sure there were people that got their hands on more of these than #41999 and was able to make some good money.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    edited February 2014
    nkx1 said:

    I'm still waiting for TRU to sell out of #4207 (City Garage) to see how it will perform. [email protected] has been sold out of this for a month or so, but TRU still has them in stock. I'm not overly optimistic on it's aftermarket performance, since it's been on sale at TRU for $112 for a while and it's still not gone. Demand might be pretty low for this set.

    #4207 was always overpriced IMO and I think that is another thing keeping it around (That is when TRU is not having at 139.99 or 129.99).
    If TRU puts these down to 99 then I'm guessing they will be finally gone, but I do not see this occurring any time soon.
    Just like last year TRU is the lone retailer for some LEGO sets long out of stock at other stores due to their outrageous prices.

    Now that I think about it maybe TRU is not gouging... maybe they are just getting a huge head start on aftermarket pricing their LEGO before it EOLs.
    Pitfall69Thanos75nkx1Yellowcastle
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    #4207 is one of the rare sets which is only marginally cheaper in the US than elsewhere. European RRP is 100 EUR (if I remember correctly) and over here it was available lots of times for 70 EUR. I think at 70 EUR it will turn out to be a good (but not exceptional) investment for me also taking into account what other options I have but if I were in the US I'd choose something else. In the US it seems to be overpriced compared to other sets.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    If I had to choose between #4207 City Garage or #60026 Town Square, I would choose Town Square as a better investment.
    FollowsClosely
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    edited February 2014
    I agree with you about #60026 probably being better, but since #4207 is actually sold out / retired and #60026 should be around for a while longer I can see where #4207 might be a decent investment if you got them cheap enough. I picked up just a few when TRU had the sale back in december. Ended up getting them for roughly 30% off of actulal MSRP (not the TRU tax price) and got some free small sets to boot for the deal. I don't look for them to be a big winner, but hopefully will be able to swing 30% or better gain when it is finally gone from TRU as well. I was unable to get any of the town hall set on Black Friday which was a bummer. Couldn't get to a TRU that day.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    edited February 2014
    #4207 was exclusive to Kmart in Australia. Although it had a RRP of $150 Kmart set the regular price at $129, which seems to be a common practice with these larger city sets over here.

    When this first came out it was on sale for some time at $99, currently sold out on [email protected] with a clearance price of $75, but I think it sold out while at 30% off though.

  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    does anyone know if Amazon will price match their own site if the item is now sold by a third party that charges shipping?
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    Any thoughts on #60021 Cargo Heliplane? You can get it at Amazon for $33 right now, or at Walmart for $25 if you are lucky enough to find it on sale. I normally don't buy City sets, but was wondering if this was unique enough to be worth buying and holding?
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    City sets have to be really unique IMHO to invest in, even with a discount. Cargo heli is close. I remember that last passenger plane a few years ago did well. I keep getting people asking me for one.
    Pitfall69dougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^The one with the limo? Yes, but that went unexpected like The Zombies did. Also, was that a Walmart exclusive?
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    ^ No, he's talking about #7893.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,331
    @Ronyar, I would not buy at that price.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited February 2014
    I think the Cargo Heliplane might do ok, but as with most smaller sets, I sort of doubt it's going to do anything spectacular. Obviously there are always exceptions, such as Zombies. I think the Cargo Terminal #60022 would be a much better gamble. Big planes seem to have done quite well historically, especially the previous cargo plane.

    Maybe if you sell in volume, the Heliplane might be worth it; otherwise, you can probably do less work and make more with the Cargo Terminal (ie selling one Cargo Terminal might net the same amount of money as selling two Heliplanes).

    I'm guessing these wont retire until at least Xmas 2014 or so, but I could be wrong.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I think #60021 at $25 or less is a reasonably safe bet. Not likely a huge gainer, but it is pretty unique and not likely to be repeated.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited February 2014
    Still think Museum Heist and the mini Hospital are potential sleepers. MH is very unique. Both have been on sale forever, because of ridiculous rrp prices.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    LegoFanTexas said:

    If I had known then what I know now, I'd probably have kept it. I had 5 or 6 of those pass through my hands over the past 2 years, never could bring myself to open one.

    All of us benefit from hindsight. There was absolutely no doubt in my mind that Green Grocer, Taj Mahal, and Grand Carousel from that year were going to do well (and the precedent was there for everyone to see, so it wasn't some great intuition on my part). Yet for various reasons that seem completely silly now, I didn't buy more.

    BTW, it was just a coincidence that you were the seller in my example. I searched the marketplace to see if anyone had sold it 2 years into retirement.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    ^ Currently Walmart puts MH on sale at $49. It needs to be below 40 before I pull the trigger.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    Dad said:

    ^ No, he's talking about #7893.

    I actually think he may be referring to #3181. These were widely available at Target on clearance for $20 each. I'm netting a profit of $55 each at the moment. My plan is to finish selling half my inventory, and then sell the other half if/when it either A) reaches $100 or B) LEGO releases an updated passenger plane.

    Regarding #60021, I was standing in front of a dozen or so at Walmart yesterday for the $25 mentioned. I didn't buy any. As a set it just strikes me as too niche to do well enough to be worth investing in heavily. I personally wasn't interested in it as part fodder, either, and that is saying a lot.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    edited February 2014
    ^ I was wondering what happened when I typed #60021 it no longer referenced the product page, instead it becomes a search page. Is that something I did wrong or setting wise?
  • vaspvasp Member Posts: 73
    JeffH said:

    ^ I was wondering what happened when I typed #60021 it no longer referenced the product page, instead it becomes a search page. Is that something I did wrong or setting wise?

    You have to do it on the home page now
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    vasp said:

    JeffH said:

    ^ I was wondering what happened when I typed #60021 it no longer referenced the product page, instead it becomes a search page. Is that something I did wrong or setting wise?

    You have to do it on the home page now
    You meant click the topic there? It looks the same to me...
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    rocao said:

    Dad said:

    ^ No, he's talking about #7893.

    I actually think he may be referring to #3181. These were widely available at Target on clearance for $20 each. I'm netting a profit of $55 each at the moment. My plan is to finish selling half my inventory, and then sell the other half if/when it either A) reaches $100 or B) LEGO releases an updated passenger plane.
    I think it was the #3181 model.
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275
    JeffH said:


    You meant click the topic there? It looks the same to me...

    The search at the top of the forum is now a forum search and not a brickset search. You have to go to the home page (brickset.com) and use the search there to search for sets. The old forum format used to have both, where the forum search was below the title bar at the top of the column of stuff on the right. It is no longer formated that way.

  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I picked up 4 of the #60021 sets and one was for me to keep. That's as deep as I go on that set.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    graphite said:

    JeffH said:


    You meant click the topic there? It looks the same to me...

    The search at the top of the forum is now a forum search and not a brickset search. You have to go to the home page (brickset.com) and use the search there to search for sets. The old forum format used to have both, where the forum search was below the title bar at the top of the column of stuff on the right. It is no longer formated that way.

    Ah, thanks for the explanation. I guess just have to use the html link option to type then, which is what I did the last few days to edit the post. The old method is a lot easier though...
  • CheekaCheeka Member Posts: 236
    JeffH said:


    Ah, thanks for the explanation. I guess just have to use the html link option to type then, which is what I did the last few days to edit the post. The old method is a lot easier though...

    Unless I've misunderstood what you were asking, I think you can still use # before a set number to link within a post - it doesn't work when you're viewing in preview mode (it takes you to the forum search), but it does work when it's actually been posted to the board. That's what just happened to me anyway.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    Cheeka said:

    Unless I've misunderstood what you were asking, I think you can still use # before a set number to link within a post - it doesn't work when you're viewing in preview mode (it takes you to the forum search), but it does work when it's actually been posted to the board. That's what just happened to me anyway.

    For me, it still does the forum search even after posting. But if the page is refreshed, it works correctly. I just Cmd-R every time I make a post with a set number link.
  • legoprodslegoprods Member Posts: 445
    edited February 2014
    For me it has always done a forum search. Well, some times there is some magic that makes it a set link, but generally it's a forum search.

    I wonder if those wizards that know how to link sets would say their secret.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    #6074

    Where does that take you? All I did was type pound-six-zero-seven-four.
  • CheekaCheeka Member Posts: 236
    @binaryeye Works a treat for me - straight to the Black Falcon's Fortress set page.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,331
    On my mobile it searches the forum.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^Same here. On my phone, it searches the forum. On my home computers, it works correctly and directs me to the identified set.
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    Let me try #10196
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    binaryeye said:

    Cheeka said:

    Unless I've misunderstood what you were asking, I think you can still use # before a set number to link within a post - it doesn't work when you're viewing in preview mode (it takes you to the forum search), but it does work when it's actually been posted to the board. That's what just happened to me anyway.

    For me, it still does the forum search even after posting. But if the page is refreshed, it works correctly. I just Cmd-R every time I make a post with a set number link.
    Thanks! This solve the the problem. Lately every time I posted the hash mark and found my link went to the forum search but everybody else posts looked fine. I thought I did something wrong. A refresh will points to the right place in my browser. I supposed others viewing probably was correct in the first place.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited February 2014

    Have you seen the new LEGO City Train Station? I think this will stunt #7937 's growth in the aftermarket. I actually like the new one better.
  • jediami65jediami65 Member Posts: 474
    Newbie to these discussions other than a question here and there, I agree with @nkx1 to me #60022 looks great, with 3 smaller utility vehicles, figures, tower and other pieces, not crazy about the .15c per piece @ RRP.
    dane
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    any projections as to which of THE LEGO MOVIE sets will be the hot ones... maybe stock up on a few now while they seem to be 20% off, I kind of like the 70808, get the main characters, vehicles and a couple bad guys.
    Thoughts?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    edited February 2014
    Pitfall69 said:


    Have you seen the new LEGO City Train Station? I think this will stunt #7937 's growth in the aftermarket. I actually like the new one better.

    It may or may not, I'm sure there are those that would not mind the #7937 train station instead of the new one. It will drop demand though as most people will simply want a train station and not want to over pay for one, but after seeing many of the older ones slowly rise it is a marathon-er not a sprinter I think
    111ins said:

    any projections as to which of THE LEGO MOVIE sets will be the hot ones... maybe stock up on a few now while they seem to be 20% off, I kind of like the 70808, get the main characters, vehicles and a couple bad guys.
    Thoughts?

    I think stocking up on LEGO movie sets will be a waste of money. They will be out for at least 1 year and will likely be on sale often once the movie is out of the theaters, then you have to wonder if LEGO keeps them available after it is released on DVD BLu Ray.

    For parts though I see these being great.
    I would say if I was forced to pick 'good' sets i would say Sea Cow will definitely be one, plus any set where there can be a 'regular' vehicle built out of the set, but that is all just my opinion

  • jediami65jediami65 Member Posts: 474
    111ins said:

    any projections as to which of THE LEGO MOVIE sets will be the hot ones... maybe stock up on a few now while they seem to be 20% off, I kind of like the 70808, get the main characters, vehicles and a couple bad guys.
    Thoughts?

    I just bought one at the Lego store $25 after VIP points and $20 off $100 coupon and same as you I think this will be one of the hotter sets from the Movie I will probably buy a couple more tomorrow are TRU.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    I too passed on the Tilt Rotor Helicopter even at $25. I stared at it forever but just wasn't moved, even though I love the V22.

    I'm still pondering the Cargo Terminal at $69.99, also at Walmart.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I would say the plumbing truck. Its a Walmart exclusive and I dont see it very often.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I have my eye on the Ice Cream Machine. The vehicle itself is great. Every town needs an ice cream truck.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Yellowcastle said:

    I too passed on the Tilt Rotor Helicopter even at $25. I stared at it forever but just wasn't moved, even though I love the V22.

    I'm still pondering the Cargo Terminal at $69.99, also at Walmart.

    I'm on the same page...

    That being said, I wouldn't turn down a few of the Tilt Rotors for $25, that is a good price and it will do $50 comfortably once it retires. Or so I think. :)

    As for Cargo Terminal, for $70, I'd love to have a large pile of them, closer to EOL. The primary problem with that set is it may well be one of those that just sticks around and around and around.

    I see at least 2 years from launch to EOL, maybe a bit longer. The last big Airport set was around for awhile, but it has done well anyway.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    edited February 2014
    ^ I managed to grab the previoud green version FedEx plane at EOL but mostly out of worry my airport would be unable to process cargo otherwise forbidden on passenger planes. :o)

    I'm really frustrated now because this new set just seems so much more badass. I'll wait one more day and let Walmart decide my fate and my weight. ;o)
    Dougout
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,633
    Pitfall69 said:


    Have you seen the new LEGO City Train Station? I think this will stunt #7937 's growth in the aftermarket. I actually like the new one better.

    I think the new one will be much more popular, especially with the aftermarket crowd. It has more structure whereas the previous one is mostly stairs and platform.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited February 2014
    I really like the new one, but I think both are good. I also think #7937 is stronger than people give it credit for. It's the only one that has dual-sided platforms and a pedestrian bridge (which you can mod into a signal bridge in seconds). As for others, #7997 was spartan, but it was the trainiest looking train station as far as architecture goes.

    I will admit, however, that a larger, not-quite-modular size train station would be welcome, one with multiple tracks and more to do than just buy a ticket, pizza or pop. While I'm wishing, give me a roundhouse, remote switches and wider radius curves also.
    madforLEGO
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    edited February 2014
    TheLoneTensor said:

    As for others, #7997 was spartan, but it was the trainiest looking train station as far as architecture goes.

    No it wasn't. (In my opinion.) #4554 is still the king of train stations released by Lego. Given how much set design has advanced in the last 23 years this is a testament to two things:
    - How unbelievably outstanding #4554 was back then.
    - How mediocre the later stations have been. I think they ranged from poor ( #4556 and #4513 ) to quite good ( #7997 ) but nothing really spectacular.
    madforLEGO
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    Train station itself does look better than the previous one, but both new trains look very bland to me.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited February 2014
    ^ If it was in anything but bright yellow, I would agree. I know colors were not as varied back then, but it's still really, really bright. That, and I've always been a sucker for lots of columns and arches, as featured in #7997.

    #4554 is a great station nonetheless.
    Pitfall69
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    Pitfall69 said:

    I have my eye on the Ice Cream Machine. The vehicle itself is great. Every town needs an ice cream truck.

    This is the only TLM set I have purchased and I put it together as the ice cream truck. I'ts pretty cool. Unfortunately, in that build there area TON of left over pieces, and it certainly doesn't feel like a good value for the price.
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