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I predict the price will be lower in 6 months.
It may be similar or higher come Christmas, but at some point, all the "I just missed it" people will be gone, the only buyers left are those coming out of their dark ages and those who wanted one but couldn't afford it, but that latter group, if they couldn't afford it at RRP, how do they afford it at 2x RRP?
PR just came out, one of the best modulars done. Another one will be along shortly.
Only the release of a Police HQ or Police Precinct will draw back interest I think. While the FB is a good one and it will always have fans, LEGO has swamped the market with great big sets.
I really do wonder about the future of modulars for resale, because not only do you have to have people coming out of their dark ages with money to spend, but those are now filtered by having enough space to display all those big buildings. They will be picking and choosing their favorites only, not necessarily all of them to complete the collection.
Honestly, I think the FB has some serious staying power, simply because kids (of all ages) love Fire Stations. I think if the FB is put side by side with most any other modular, it'll be the one chosen over the "store" or "a couple houses" or the "city hall." And also, you mention the inevitable Police Precinct. I think that will actually strengthen the FB, because their very natures compliment each other nicely.
Also taking into account it JUST sold out about 1 month ago, and has been out for as long as it has been (5 years),not bad at all.... Also the fact many thought it would stay under 200 for the rest of the year.
Like others though I'm guessing much of this is panic buying and also resellers buying even at 200-250 to hope they can flip them for another 50-100 in a few months.
If this set had some decent current parity with the US then it would have been easier. They’re buying these for £125 each ($200), so the UK reseller is already at a £55 disadvantage.
IMO this set is 10 years too late – the Simpsons is nowhere near as popular as it used to be.
It is somewhat cool to be into what was once mostly the domain of kids, we have a lot of cashed up 30 something's who love video games, comics, transformers, Big Bang theory etc. who would have grown up watching the Simpsons, they are really going to be into this set.
I have a number of friends who traditionally aren't into Lego keen to get this and just about every other AFOL in there 30's I have spoken too tell the same story.
I think it's going to be a hit, the big question is will TLG be ready. I have no doubt that if it sells out in a few days and doesn't come back in stock quickly we could see some crazy eBay prices.
And it's working.
$50 or $60 packages do sometimes get through uncharged if your lucky by the cheapest shipping option.
Priority mail is far more strict, even just a tiny amount over and your package gets charged.
As far as we're aware, it isn't in short supply, and no-one is buying those that are out there right now on ebay.com/.co.uk (lots of watchers though - probably rival sellers).
£180 down and £250 with postage, ebay and paypal take their 13% combined, and you are left with £32. Chances are that over the next few days, some more people will get in, undercut and put them up for as little as £230 delivered (£15 for your troubles). I suppose you've got £9 in VIP points coming your way.
£19.23 profit there if you assume the postage costs are inclusive of paypal fees.
Sorry, I can't get excited over making $120 or so on a resale. Percentage wise, that would be great on fire brigade. But this is a hobby for me. I make money elsewhere. And, well, if I could sell a fire brigades and turn a profit of $50,000.....my level of enthusiasm would increase significantly. But most of these reseller discussions concern dollar amounts that are really small potatoes in the larger scheme of things.
Besides, making $120 on a fire brigade might be a good percentage gain, if the time you spent buying, listing, packaging for shipment has no value to you.
Most people here paid tax on the $120. A few don't, but most don't have reseller tax permits.
The $240 isn't net, there is 13% in eBay/PayPal fees, then about $15 in shipping to take off that.
It is still profitable, but not nearly by as much as it would seem. In addition, those bought for $120 were bought a year or more ago, not last month. From a return point of view, the copies bought last month for $150 have a far better rate of return on them than the $120 year-old copies.
You have to make the listing, find the box, pack it, drop it off or have it picked up. None of it is a big deal, but it is easy to ignore all that is involved.
Oh, and you had to put the $120 into the set back in 2012 and store it for a year.
Again, if you're just doing 5 of them and putting them in your closet and doing it in your spare time to fund your hobby, that's fine. But don't say it is a total of 10 minutes per set, from start to finish.
So $600 invested 15 months ago, plus your time, to make $300 profit? Not bad actually, depending of course on what you make in your regular job. That $300 buys you SOH or EV, or a pair of modulars.
Of course, if you add up the time to keep track of the LEGO resale market... :)
I can't argue against the rest of your post though :)
*Lord Business laugh*