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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • CocoaGeekCocoaGeek Member Posts: 5

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-Wars-Millennium-Falcon/dp/B004P95ABG/

    Anyone who was concerned this was retired, Amazon has it back in stock at RRP.

    Probably be on sale again, but if you don't want to risk missing it, there you go. :)

    I was one of the person concerned with it being retired :) I'm glad I didn't rush to get it. I was looking at the amazon price chart yesterday and it's pretty crazy ... I'm not sure I understand why there is so much volatility.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    ...and it's not just Lego. Amazon previously sold an action figure, Breaking Bad Heisenberg Walter 6" Action Figure, for 17.99, then 19.99, and now it's 20.13. And, yes, I mean sold by and ships by Amazon. The manufacturer sells it for 18. LFT is right; this is new behavior for the company. Buyer beware. And nkx1 is right; if shoppers believe they're being overcharged, they'll go elsewhere. Unless perhaps they're invested in a prime membership and are hooked on tax-free, 2-day shipping. Then shoppers might willingly, knowingly, overpay. Amazon is testing the waters.

    Not only are we seeing markups at Amazon, but we're not seeing a lot of deep discounts, either. We might not see the likes of Olivias House, Unexpected Gathering, or Ultra Sonic Raider in the low 50s any more. Seems to me these are suddenly hard times for bargain hunters.
  • VaderXVaderX Member Posts: 220
    I sold my 10197 for 225 plus a hefty shipping charge... made way more than 25$ Oh course my copy did not cost 150$ plus tax. 80$ is a lot better than 25$ :), but hey who's counting right?

    41999 is slowly climbing back to 400$ it will be there this Christmas or sooner.

    Just my 2 cents
  • bitsathisbitsathis Member Posts: 140
    edited January 2014
    ^^ I just sold a 41999 on ebay UK this afternoon for £334.95 inc postage

    p.s. - Not to our friend Mark
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    I agree that 41999 will go back up in price. That is a set that is absolutely limited. They only made 20K for official sale.

    Could it be re-released? Yes, but it would have to get a different set number to differentiate from the limited edition.

    I still have a couple in my BrickLink store for $375ish. Just randomly found them sitting in a Lego store a week before Christmas...
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited January 2014
    bitsathis said:

    ^^ I just sold a 41999 on ebay UK this afternoon for £334.95 inc postage

    p.s. - Not to our friend Mark

    I messaged Mark a few weeks ago as I wanted to clear our the last of my 41999's but he was getting them for equivalent to below £300 from overseas sellers. Can't complain though as I did some significant business with the lad. At one point he would have snapped yours hands off @ £334.95. Im just going to wait until they hit the £500-£600 mark now before shifting my last batch.

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited January 2014
    I think 41999 has hit its peak already, i guess it'll probably fluctuate a little now and again but i very much doubt it hitting £600

    Yeah its limited, but its appeal is even more limited.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited January 2014

    I think 41999 has hit its peak already, i guess it'll probably fluctuate a little now and again but i very much doubt it hitting £600

    Yeah its limited, but its appeal is even more limited.

    I think #9398 is keeping it from rising further in price at this very moment in time, however #9398 will probably retire soon, and the #41999 will hit another level from a price point.

    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    #9398 should retire at the end of 2014.

    Yes, that will help this go up further, but so will the passage of time.

    Regardless of what happens, unless it spikes like crazy, the time to sell it has past, in terms of a good return. This was selling for $400 a week post launch, double RRP in 10 days is about the best rate of return you can imagine, and nothing it does two years from now can compete.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    #42030 is expected to be a large RC vehicle, if it is a truck it could keep the price of #9398 down. If the new set is a car then #8070 could suffer.
  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 945
    Has Winter Village Market definitely been EOL'd? Don't they usually last two years?
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    edited January 2014
    As of right now I don't think they have any left, so in a sense it is "sold out", but I would expect them to produce more for next year. It's also possible that TLG haven't yet made that decision - or even if they have it could be changed. Toy Shop and Bakery also both ran for three winters.

    If cottage is definitely gone then the price point for next year's set might have an impact. I am sure there was a theory that Post Office was EOLed to avoid having one cheap competitor against the £89 cottage and £79 village market. Not sure how these have all sold relative to early sets but might open the door for something at £59 or £69 price point.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    #9398 should retire at the end of 2014.

    Yes, that will help this go up further, but so will the passage of time.

    Regardless of what happens, unless it spikes like crazy, the time to sell it has past, in terms of a good return. This was selling for $400 a week post launch, double RRP in 10 days is about the best rate of return you can imagine, and nothing it does two years from now can compete.

    I flipped 41 of the ~41999's for £300 a pop less than 2 week post selling out, so that kind of return was a no brainer then. I will end up keeping 2 mint ones for the next 3-4 years to see what they go up to.

  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 627
    ^ 41?? and I thought I was lucky to get my single copy!
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    edited January 2014
    Oke guys, all jokes aside on this one.

    What do you guys think of an idea like this:
    Buy all Green Grocers below €1000 on Bricklink in order to get the monopoly on them? Buying all of them would cost about €65,500.00($89,500.00) and would have a sale value of about €93,000.00($127,000.00). The sale value would be excluding Bricklink fees, but those would be around €2.300($3100). Not to forget Tax. A 'move' like this could net about €25,000.00($34,000.00).

    I would like an honest response to this :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    If you could be sure that was all the supply, it might work. Except that you don't know that.

    You also don't know what the demand above that price really is, demand can be quite elastic with price, as price goes up, demand goes down.

    But what may really happen is that as you move the price up, you bring more copies out of closets and onto the market.

    There are much better ways to invest $90K with less risk and better returns.

    Just my 2 cents of course.
    tamamahmYellowcastle
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    UKtsumi said:

    ^ 41?? and I thought I was lucky to get my single copy!

    Covered a lot of miles to get that amount though, I did around 2000 miles just in my car

  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,030

    UKtsumi said:

    ^ 41?? and I thought I was lucky to get my single copy!

    Covered a lot of miles to get that amount though, I did around 2000 miles just in my car

    How else did you travel? Horse with saddlebags? Must be risky on such a delicate box ;-)

    margotLegoManiaccEKSamxeeeejLobotjasonord69ajasorYellowcastle
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    UKtsumi said:

    ^ 41?? and I thought I was lucky to get my single copy!

    Covered a lot of miles to get that amount though, I did around 2000 miles just in my car

    How else did you travel? Horse with saddlebags? Must be risky on such a delicate box ;-)

    lol ;-) Behave I still have polybags for you ;-)
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    I only managed to get 2 #41999 as I was out the country at the time but I sold mine a month after release for roughly £380 each. Considering the time holding them I considered that return too good to miss.

    I think they'll climb back up to around £400 but I can't see it going beyond that. It just didn't have enough exposure to be popular in the long term.

  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Managed to get 4, paid retail for 3 and won one on bidding for £315 around a month after release.

    Really am tempted to open and build one.
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,030
    @BillyBrown polys? This is either new information or some I've forgotten about. Can you drop me a pm to remind me please. I'm having starting conversation issues again.

    Now I'm going to spam this den of iniquity just the once. The closing date for entry into the reseller challenge is fast approaching. If you want in and the chance to be top boy (or girl) make sure you sign up by the 12th.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Wow 2000 miles?

    With the cost of fuel here in the uk, it must have cost you a bob or two :/

  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    I moved many many #41999s too. But I had them all sent to my house, my next door neighbours, my parents etc. Didn't cost me a penny in fuel. I have ten in the loft and only ever paid retail. Cost me a small fortune, but the return just a few days later was incredible. Definitely the set that made my 2013.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    41999 was great. Paid $190 each and sold all for $500+ to Lord British. Great that they were limited edition, not so great they were technic. Can you imagine if they made a limited edition modular? Now that would be something to hold onto rather than flip.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited January 2014
    Have any of you guys built the #41999? I thought it was a fantastic build and well worth the coin.
    FollowsCloselyLegoboyYellowcastleTXLegoguyrancorbait
  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    I believe Lord British reads this forum...
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,247
    ^^I intend to this summer. Got one from [email protected] and a second from TRU. Hope to sell one to deflect the cost of the first along with deflecting the eyerolls of my wife
    FollowsClosely
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited January 2014

    41999 was great. Paid $190 each and sold all for $500+ to Lord British. Great that they were limited edition, not so great they were technic. Can you imagine if they made a limited edition modular? Now that would be something to hold onto rather than flip.

    Another reason why selling them a few months ago was the best time.

    IMO most people that are buying them are resellers and speculators.

    Unlike most other sets, i don't really see it having any "long term" appeal, unlike the modulars or UCS sets and traditional sets.

    Its limited but of those 20,000 how many out there will still be sealed?

    Oh and how long will it be until a new, faster and better version comes along?


  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816

    UKtsumi said:

    ^ 41?? and I thought I was lucky to get my single copy!

    Covered a lot of miles to get that amount though, I did around 2000 miles just in my car

    How else did you travel? Horse with saddlebags? Must be risky on such a delicate box ;-)

    Magic carpet perhaps?

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited January 2014

    Wow 2000 miles?

    With the cost of fuel here in the uk, it must have cost you a bob or two :/

    Not as bad as it could have been, my diesel is not bad economy wise, but it was worth it in the end, the worse bit was parking up finding the stores, took me ages to find the Watford one, I seemed to go in circles and it was right in front of my eyes that main complex. Ended up sleeping in my car after that part of my journey.

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816

    Oke guys, all jokes aside on this one.

    What do you guys think of an idea like this:
    Buy all Green Grocers below €1000 on Bricklink in order to get the monopoly on them? Buying all of them would cost about €65,500.00($89,500.00) and would have a sale value of about €93,000.00($127,000.00). The sale value would be excluding Bricklink fees, but those would be around €2.300($3100). Not to forget Tax. A 'move' like this could net about €25,000.00($34,000.00).

    I would like an honest response to this :)

    This can never be done. I used to be big into buying and selling die cast cars.
    60's and 70's. 5 years ago I saw 20 trade boxes totalling 120 cars turn up. That was a Husky James Bond Aston Martin. All mint, straight out of their trade boxes. That was a 40 year old model. All mint, as per the day they were made. The price dropped within a week from £175 to £60. The price still has not recovered fully although that may be due to market fluctuations.

    I am not going to discuss the next person in any detail but I know a guy who is big into his Hot Wheels and Corgi Rockets. He most definitely has the largest collection of Corgi Rockets on the planet. No doubt about it. ( These are die cast cars that were made to rival Hot Wheels )

    He has the contacts and knowledge though and a couple of years ago he purchased van loads of various Hot Wheels. Van loads. He bought them from a guy whose Uncle was paid to clear the Mattel Rosebud factory in the UK when it closed.

    The intention was that they were to be weighed in for scrap but that never happened. So long as he drip feeds them onto the market he literally has an income for the rest of his life and he still won't have time to sell them all.

    But that one person alone can change the whole market of Hot Wheels collecting overnight should he wish to do so. And that is 40 years later.

    Food for thought. That's all



    wagnerml2indigobox
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^^ And even so, While you might be able to buy everything off of bricklink, you will have no control over Ebay, etc.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,159
    Bl I would bet is a small portion of th gg market. Less than %15 I would venture a guess.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    I think we did the same but i only did a 500 mile trip to get 30 of them which ive kept, taking the misses always helps when i bribe her with new shoes :)

    Hardest store to find... Leeds!!!! The post code takes you to a junction of a dual carriageway no where near the shop! I lost 90 minutes on that one :(
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited January 2014
    stevemack said:

    I think we did the same but i only did a 500 mile trip to get 30 of them which ive kept, taking the misses always helps when i bribe her with new shoes :)

    Hardest store to find... Leeds!!!! The post code takes you to a junction of a dual carriageway no where near the shop! I lost 90 minutes on that one :(

    He,he Leeds was a nightmare, but not as bad as Watford. It was my least productive run as well as they only let me have the max of 2 and when I went back they wouldn't sell me anymore so they went by the book.

    It was onwards to Sheffield after that where it was more fruitful.

  • bricktuarybricktuary Krakozhia (temporarily stuck in London)Member Posts: 945
    Agree. But then this is the resellers forum.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @Legofanscott This thread is the 'safe-zone' for almost any topic or discussion, for better or worse. Kinda like Arkham Asylum for the brickset gallery of Rogues.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,245

    Agree. But then this is the resellers forum.

    Translation: Law don't go around here. Savvy?

    This thread is kinda like the old west...Legoredo. The marshals haven't yet abandoned it but nor do we call down the thunder every time someone wants to go heels.

    We're very cosmopolitan, like that.
    sidersddy2joshpharmjodJP3804
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Not quite sure why the reseller thread has become the anything goes thread.
    TXLegoguy
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited January 2014
    It was agreed by all parties following the devastating Doodad War I as a designated safe place for those inclined to speculate & predict on the monetary without fear of scrutiny. It then evolved to capture other off topics such as taxes, economics, video games, etc.
    YellowcastleBumblepantscardgenius
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    I like having a "wild west" thread in the forum. It makes visiting the site more exciting for me.
    pharmjod
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    The question is are resellers buying 41999's off resellers? or are resellers buying off scalpers? are scalpers buying off resellers or are scalpers buying off scalpers

    LOOOOOL

    :D

    TXLegoguy
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    The question is are resellers buying 41999's off resellers? or are resellers buying off scalpers? are scalpers buying off resellers or are scalpers buying off scalpers

    Back to the topic at hand, this is actually an insightful question, and one that we perhaps don't ask often enough.
    TXLegoguyjasor
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,445
    This thread should be a safe haven for people to talk about reselling and related topics without getting ridiculed or ganged up on.

    I don't mind going off topic from time to time. It breaks up the monotony.

    Has everyone missed me? I didn't think so ;)
    chrisdojojuggles7jasor
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    nkx1 said:

    I like having a "wild west" thread in the forum. It makes visiting the site more exciting for me.

    Anyone here remember General Mayhem from HardOCP?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HardOCP#General_Mayhem
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2014
    ^Yeah haven't seem you round these parts for a while, thought that you may have fallen into a pit!
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,445
    I reckon I'd mosey back in here after I heard this thread was like the Wild West.
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    Guys, what do you think of 853373 LEGO® Kingdoms Chess Set?
    FollowsCloselyBrickDancer
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Those chess sets fit such a niche crowd, I wouldn't touch it. If I knew they weren't doing another one, maybe 1 or 2.
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