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Lego typically EOLs (end-of-lifes) products in conjunction with their Black Friday sales. It is by far the best time to pick up the expensive sets. I do find it hard to believe that Lego would tell anyone on the phone what their obsolescence plan is. That would be a poor business practice in my mind...
i don't expect it to last the season.
Hard to tell, if it is selling well, why stop it?
It's always hard to tell of course, but I think it's as good a bet as any for next major/exclusive set to go.
If manufacturing and inventory management resources had to be allocated, it might make sense to suspend a "stale" set in favour of a new one taking its place, both for higher profit and to keep the market fresh.
Or perhaps I'm being wishful for the next modular! And no cheesy writing - "PETS" - on the next one, please.
I've built 10197, have GE and PS sitting in the closet, waiting for a rainy day, but I will say that the build differences and detail of the modular sets is much higher than the "kids" sets, for not that much more money, and a lot less per part.
Compare 10197 to 7208:
Ok, granted, completely different markets, but 10197 is 6.7 cents per part compared to 7208 being 12.1 cents per part. That is almost half the price. My kids have 7208 built, and they do play with it, and they think it is cool, and of course I didn't pay retail for it, but still, they could have done so much more with it. I would think the kids set sells much higher volumes than the adult set, so you'd think they would be able to include more at the same price.
Or perhaps the actual cost of production is minor, and they are just getting as much profit per set as they think the market will support, regardless of the "value" of each set.
I missed out on CC and I'm of course not going to spend $1K plus to get it, so it would be nice to have a second one to "end cap" the current build.
SW Hoth Cave
SSW Battle of Endor
SW Republican Dropship
SW Tantative IV
All Toy Story Sets
Winter Village Toy Shop
And my wildcard is: SW Deathstar (mainly because it might drive business to the other large SW set...the Super Star Destroyer.
Mainly like @Ravenhook says, it is a balance sheet, 1000 more per month works better than 500 per month
I am guessing LEGO has relatively limited resources to build x amount of sets per year and therefore wants to maximize their lines to make the most money with what they have.
What is viewed as a 'sought after' set LEGO sees an actual balance sheet on, and probably sees demand for the set go down after time and why keep making sets until only 50 people want them when you could be devoting time and resources on a new line that will make you double what you put into it.That and I think the other reason is to keep the lines 'fresh' as well.
As it stands it seems on the surface LEGO has made more of a given line, but normally once a line is done it is done. The Maersk stuff is an exception as the Maersk company is probably the main requester for the ships to be out there (great marketing tool) BUT I also notice Maersk is not asking for a redo of the 80's Minifig Maersk sets either, which are REALLY sought after!
I think Fire Brigade has lasted this long as well because, contrary to popular belief, I do not think it is a sought after set. It is a fire house, and many people do not want to spend 150 dollars on a fire house. As a result there have been more available.. What you are seeing for the most part, especially now, is speculation buying.
My guess is LEGO has a number of sets planned when they build and them build them and then that is it.. with maybe a couple of exceptions where the extended a line (SW does this, but again I think that is because of a more "Lucas Company wants it, AND they'll pay for a set line to continue' type of attitude)
...and maybe, after all, we have it wrong and LEGO does care about a secondary market, which can fuel the new purchases of LEGO, and therefore wants to have limited sets, you have to admin.. if you collect the Mods you feel the need to purchase every one.
Although the Pet Shop is a hard sell for me as it seems a bit tiny...
Since I have accrued a large amount of VIP points I am thinking about cashing in on a Pet shop now...
10193 Medieval Market Village
The Winter Toy Shoppe will be interesting.. twice now people have thought it gone only to arrive back in time for the holidays
But you are correct it is a bit old now.
But IMO the Wild card is really the SW Battle of Endor, after all they extended that set after it was discontinued so that may be around for another year still..
I think the LEGO Death Star is done this year to be honest, the main thing driving sales for it are speculators right now... I know Target and Walmart have it now as well, but I think this is the 'final charge', if you will, of the LEGO Death Star.. Especially since Lego seems to be keen on 'Price slots' of sets (number of sets that are 150, 180, 400 dollars, etc)
I'm guessing they will have a few for an inevitable SW or LEGO Black Friday sale, but then they will probably be gone.
The only good news about if there are any Fire Brigades by BF then maybe those go on sale at LEGO.com as well....
Fire Brigade did that as well a few weeks ago, but is back in the list.
The Kings Castle is sold out there, who knows what that means?
It would be funny if someone at Lego is reading these forums, laughing their head off as we try and figure it all out.
^^--- I doubt it, I think it is more likely that LEGO's online team is just inadvertently listing things in stock out of stock.. Im guessing they must have multiple warehouses or something so one shows out of stock, then they find more in another warehouse or something....
The test, like @LegoFanTexas says, is does it stay out of stock... If it is out of stock for about 1-2 weeks then it is probably gone... also if the set has been out for a while then it is gone (or if there is talk of another castle set coming out)....
MMV at Amazon.com
Enjoy - it's a cracker !
Anyone think that set will go up, or will it just get replaced by another castle? I have one that I bought two months ago, intending to build, but it is in the back of my stack behind about 20 other sets, so if it ends up being $200 by next summer, I'd be hard pressed to open the box. :)
As a fan of Lego, I love this time of year!!!
Anyway, if being on sale for $73 on Amazon a couple weeks ago wasn't enough to convince me to grab it, I guess nothing will.
I guess the Series 5 Minifigs will be gone by the end of this year, and replaced with Series 6 early in 2012?
I am going to side here with Farmer John about MMV - why kill the golden goose?
7946 King's Castle
7948 Outpost Attack
7950 Knight's Showdown
It may be a good time to pickup any other Kingdom sets you might be interested in...
- Harry Potter theme (except 10217 that will still be available)
- City : 7634, 7641, 7639, 7630, 3179, 3180, 7207
- Star Wars: 8038, 8039. 8083, 8084, 8086, 8089. 8093. 8095. 8096
- Creator: 5893, 6743
- Technic: 8046, 8047, 8048, 8049, 8052, 8058
He has not mentionned anything about the big sets though
On another note, I was at Lego store Westfield a couple of weeks ago, and one of the staff member told me the 10197 will be discontinued...They did not have any on the shelf, and did not expect any shipment.
Several sets on his list have already been discontinued in the USA.
I wonder if my family really want Christmas presents this year, though...?
Though actually I've already got presents for all my sister's family, so would be a bit harsh on the rest of them!
I'm trying to outrun the discontinuations: MMV, check. Death Star, check. FB?? Well, hopefully I'll be able to grab one (with ALL bags present!) before they disappear. Fingers crossed anyway (off topic but I feel like there should be an emoticon for fingers crossed, anyone know of one??)
Seems like there's a lot of anxiety among forum posters about sets and availability ... is that typical for this time of year, or is this year unusual? I just joined a few months ago, so I don't know what previous holiday seasons were like.
Yes...Lego tends to end-of-life older sets this time of year to make way for the newer sets that come out at the beginning of the year. Because there are so many cool sets, a collector can't buy them all when they come out and sometimes has to wait. The goal is not to wait too long and watch them become even more expensive on the secondary market.
Note: I just went to the TRU USA site and it shows the 7946 set as gone.
Most LEGO sets tend to sell out around this time out year due to the Holidays...
Usually the Creator modular sets (Green Grocer, Fire Brigade, etc) usually sell out before Thanksgiving.. Cafe Corner did around Thanksgiving, then Green Grocer, now it appears the Fire Brigade is the next up to sell out before the holiday. So start sweating around this time next year for the Grand Emporium....
As for the Bank & Money Transfer and the Police Chase set, the one you'll probably still see is the Bank after x-mas. That is unless it goes on clearance.
Oh well... :)
(they can move that qty pretty quickly however, so it may still go out, this could be the last restock, or they could have 50,000 units, who knows...)