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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 914
    gmpirate i'm extremely happy with my unimog quantity at its price! In the UK its a good regular seller, it's also a licensed mercedes set!
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    vitreolum said:

    mathew said:

    The problem I see with resellers on this forum (probably with other forums as well) is that you guys are very cliquish...

    Or maybe everyone is keeping their not so obvious choices for themselves...? :))

    Also, it's better to sell 10 trains in a month for 1.5x rrp than one architecture studio in 3 months for 3x rrp. The appeal of a set is a key point here. Something that sort of lacks in case of themes like architecture... they will surely do well in terms of return but that doesn't mean they will sell easy as well.
    I have to say that I have never sold anything as fast as I sold my architecture studios. You wouldn't have to wait 3 months, more like half a day, but you are correct there is not one strategy that is the best and works for all.

    I try to diversify and do a bit of both; some long term holds, a few quick flips, and most that fall in-between somewhere. I also am not picky about a certain theme. I would prefer to spread out my investments, because realistically everyone is going to make a bad investment now and again. I might not hit as many home runs, but at least I'll still be able to play the game.
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    edited December 2013
    Argh. I got an email saying my TRU order I placed on the 11th was just picked up. However I am now on vacation 5000 miles away from the store in question and have been for a week. Anyone with advice on dealing with this?
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    ^Call your credit card company first to dispute the charge so that put a stop from them to pay Toysrus. Then resolve it later with evidence your credit card charge away to prove it.
  • MommaLaMommaLa Member Posts: 21
    I actually have experience with TRU doing this, the items weren't actually picked up when I called my local store, I was able to get my items later the same day.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,805
    edited December 2013
    Nevermind so it was a store pickup then?
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Yep, store pickup. I won't be able to pickup at that store for another week and was expected the order to be canceled automatically like they usually do.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    stevemack said:

    gmpirate i'm extremely happy with my unimog quantity at its price! In the UK its a good regular seller, it's also a licensed mercedes set!

    That's the key, the UK and US markets behave very differently. You don't need them to do anything special. If they go up 33% on rrp in 12 months your doubling your money after fees. Can anyone recall a flagship technic set that hasn't done this?

  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    So.... Any peculation on the post Christmas clearance? I'm looking forward to LR and already have a target Walmart scoped out. I passed on the sleazy hiding. Might get #79002 or #79003. Those are due for a final clearance.

    Not sure what to too expect from SH or SW. I'm more interested in SH, but have hit most of the ones I'm interested in on earlier summer clearance.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    I expect TLR, GS and maybe castle to be on clearance. If you can find them. I went to a Walmart today to get some groceries and the LEGO aisle had nothing I expect to be on clearance. If the other walmarts around me are like that, it won't be worth even going out.
  • BalloonistBalloonist Member Posts: 54
    Lego sale currently live if you change your settings to New Zealand. Gives a heads up to what to expect at midnight.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    Jabba's Palace seems to be the only one of interest for me. Short life span, a little controversy, tons of great minifigs. Just a pain to ship.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    goshe7 said:

    So.... Any peculation on the post Christmas clearance? I'm looking forward to LR and already have a target Walmart scoped out. I passed on the sleazy hiding. Might get #79002 or #79003. Those are due for a final clearance.

    Not sure what to too expect from SH or SW. I'm more interested in SH, but have hit most of the ones I'm interested in on earlier summer clearance.

    #79003 might very well go on clearance, but it's not discontinued so it's not due for anything.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,805
    edited December 2013
    Balloonist said:

    Lego sale currently live if you change your settings to New Zealand. Gives a heads up to what to expect at midnight.

    Yes and no, I thought that US tends to have slightly different things on sale than the rest of the world. In any case Ill be checking when it hits 12am EDT, but Im not expecting much difference than the lists already released by Huw and others.
    Edit that, just checked and there are some interesting things on sale in NZ, Particluarly the Parking Garage and Jabba's Palace
    In any case I know that there are stores having big sales after Christmas but I probably will hold off unless there is something crazy well priced.
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    US sale went live at midnight. Underwhelming.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    flyingpig said:

    US sale went live at midnight. Underwhelming.

    Very...
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    #10230 didn't last long at £42. That's 3p per brick!
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    Logging truck went quickly. I had one in cart and just couldn't pull the trigger. Not a bad deal at all, but I'm just about tapped out at this point.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 914
    No discount for the logging truck in the uk :(
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    I'll blow some VIP points and get some Train Stations. Never got any when they were $35 so better do it now. Drop the Quinjet $10-15 more and I'm interested.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    ^Amazon is only charging $80 for the train station...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    An awful sale on Lego today but I was expecting as much. If [email protected] drops the City Garage and Train Station to 50% off I will buy. I will let the folks content at making less than min wage scoop them at this price. Who knew TRU would have the best sale of 2013. Times are changing.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,805
    edited December 2013
    City Garage and Technic logging trucks on sale, not bad. The Logging truck was nice at 40 dollars off. And the Helicopter Rescue (ie Hospital) is 47.98
    City Garage always nice at under 100 USD IMO. Surprised it is still around, along with he series 11 CMFs and the train stations.
    Want to pick up Decorating the tree bags at $6.48. Would be surprising for those to last to another price drop.
  • ChompersChompers Member Posts: 658
    stevemack said:

    No discount for the logging truck in the uk :(

    £69.99 in store, got 1 from Brighton :)


  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Just as some extra proof that reselling isn't all roses...

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-4611482-Wyplash/dp/B004P98PUO/
    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-4611480-Kruncha/dp/B004P9588Q/

    That is a pair of Ninjago spinners, #2174 & #2175

    They retailed for $9.99 each and sold for 1 year in 2011, they went out of stock at [email protected] Feb of 2012, more than 18 months ago.

    You can buy both, today, for 50% off RRP with free shipping from multiple sellers on Amazon.

    So while there are winners, there are losers as well, this is but one (or two) examples.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-8128-Banes-Speeder/dp/B003F7TSH6/

    #8128 - Cad Bane's Speeder

    Retailed for $49, retired March 2012

    Still selling for $49 w/free shipping...
    RomanticWarrior
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-Republic-Swamp-Speeder/dp/B0033BFTGS/

    #8091 - Republic Swamp Speeder

    Retailed for $29, retired Feb 2012

    Still selling for $29 w/free shipping...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BTW, maybe those are too recent...

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-Assassin-Droids-Battle/dp/B001LF3SZ2/

    #8015 - SW Assassin Droid Battle Pack

    Retailed for $12, retired Dec 2010, 3 full years ago...

    Some say you need to hold onto sets for awhile? Well...

    Now selling for $19 w/free shipping

    After taking into account the 15% fee, plus the actual cost of shipping... even if you got these at 50% off, holding them for 3 years...

    Was it worth it?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ My Swamp Speeders and Cad Bane Speeders are "slowly" dwindling down. Cad's sold fairly consistently in November, but then slowed. And then Swamp Speeders started selling in December. Bounty Hunters sold "fairly" well in November and then completely died in December. Sold one today though!

    Mace Windu's and Koon's sold pretty well in November and died in December as well . . . Wampa's were slow in December and really picked up steam in December.

    Since I had high quantities of these sets its nice clearing them out.

    About two or three weeks before Christmas I was about to dump all my #7498 Police Stations. I had about 30 of them I had purchased at 50% a couple years ago. Finally hit pay dirt with those :)

    Stuck with Recycling Trucks, Big Dump Trucks and Naboo's. The Dump Trucks should fair well next year, I "think" the Recycling Trucks will appreciate next year as well (especially given the lack of clearance this 26th), and Target finally sold out their stock of Naboo's so hopefully those will be next year's Wampa's for me.

    My short terms hopes are pinned on Ninjago being big again this next season.
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Well, the last one wasn't quite fair, since the price went down ~$5-10 right over Christmas as people tried to dump their stock
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    ^^ I hope your right on the #7877. I have a pile of those that haven't moved at all. What's you main selling venue? Amazon? Thus far, I have been strictly Bricklink with a couple ebay listings.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited December 2013
    ^ Think I have 136 of the Naboo's, so yeah, it would be nice to see them appreciate.

    I strictly use Ebay at this point as my time is limited and its pretty expedient. I have enough stock to sell on Amazon, but again, I just don't have the time to keep up with the selling requirements there. This may be the year I have a website developed this and see how that goes. The Ebay fees are getting painful :/
    FollowsClosely
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    Huh. All from Target last year? And I though I did a good job making the rounds at Target...
  • mmikmmik Member Posts: 17
    I'd like to get some legos to put out for each holiday, but I'd like some advice on where to start. I was planning on buying the haunted house first, this weekend, but I see the winter village is retiring. Should I buy the village and wait to get the haunted house?

    Not sure what else I want besides those two. I already have the medieval village set up in my livingroom, though!
  • rchaddrchadd Member Posts: 187
    What do you think about Lone Ranger Constitution Train? due to go EOL so should be a no brainer right or am I missing something?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,805
    edited December 2013
    I think it is a no brainer if you got it for 25-30% ,or greater, off.
    At retail...not so sure IMO. I know it is a train and the loco and tender are great, but I do not see people buying it for a large amount for the loco and tender only (and track). Yeah, I know EN is only a loco tender and train car, but the detail is so much better and you get a lot more for that train.
    Never mind that many many people bought the Constitution train chase set at 30-40% in the past month. So not so certain how it will do with it EOLs. Will it get to 100? Sure as even the toy story train is touching that mark, but not sure if it will go higher than this. Maybe is could hit 150, more than that? Im not seeing it
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    I think we're underestimating the Constitution. Available for less than a year ... and it's a train. But like others on the forum, I kept seeing that set on discount this summer/fall thinking, I'll wait until Xmas clearance or 2014 since it'll likely be out for 2 years.

    I know it's not officially retired, but it looks that way.
  • sweetness34sweetness34 San Diego, CA.Member Posts: 327
    I would start with winter village cottage first if you can still find one.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,805
    It has the 'retiring soon' tag on it at [email protected] and is now 'sold out', so I'm guessing yes, it is EOL.
    Is it possible they put up a few extra they find here or there? Sure, but I think it really is done.

    Could it do well? Sure, the more I look at at the more I like it, but I still see that many many people bought these at 25-40% off over the past year and that it still is a licensed set. However, it does have great detail on the loco and tender, and there is track as well meaning it works with PF, 9 volt, and with existing train cars. Plus you get a lot of figures for spares for your town (even though they are flesh colored) So yeah it could rise well.
    I am now among the converted. that think it can do well after EOL.

    Also, TRU.com also has them still for 99.99 (limit 4), a bit pricey for me at this point
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    rchadd said:

    What do you think about Lone Ranger Constitution Train? due to go EOL so should be a no brainer right or am I missing something?

    Emerald Night, Maesrk Train and Horizon Express are no brainers. I would not put the Constitution in the same class as those. If you got it at 50% off you will do ok....should be a solid RRP+ shipping performer down the track.
    vitreolum
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    edited December 2013
    Its officially retired on the UK Lego site.

    Canuck26
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    ^That will slow down Constitution a bit. Good feedback. Thanks.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    I think we all know The Constitution will not perform as well as the "adult" trains, but it IS a train and does come with track. I also wouldn't underestimate push trains. I have 2 kids and 6 nieces and nephews and from what I have witnessed over the years is that while they liked to see the train go around the track, they liked pushing the train manually around the track more.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    edited December 2013
    Constitution's gonna be a perfect alternative for those who can't afford EN. I don't see the city trains affecting this too much, they don't appeal to the exact same fans.

    I for one don't care at all for city trains, only some from the 80s, but Maersk and EN are among my favorite sets. I will take the constitution over the City ones any time of the day.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    vitreolum said:

    Constitution's gonna be a perfect alternative for those who can't afford EN.

    I don't think this may be a valid comparison. The Constitution is a steamer that is based on late 1800's American trains. The EN and even Hogwarts Express were steam engines as well, but were built in the late 1920's and 1930's. They are also European trains.

    The closest train would be the Toy Story train. I honestly feel that The Constitution is really in a class of its own.

  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    Apart from the discussed merits , consider the Constitution's MOC potential for example , with the Delorean this would make the perfect train set up to re enact the scene. I would also think the Bank and Sheriff set could be put to good use as well in addition to the train if we're talking Back To The Future.
    Pitfall69
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Pitfall69 said:

    vitreolum said:

    Constitution's gonna be a perfect alternative for those who can't afford EN.

    I don't think this may be a valid comparison. The Constitution is a steamer that is based on late 1800's American trains. The EN and even Hogwarts Express were steam engines as well, but were built in the late 1920's and 1930's. They are also European trains.

    The closest train would be the Toy Story train. I honestly feel that The Constitution is really in a class of its own.

    For adults yes, but for a kid they are both green old trains. And the constitution has track and cooler minifigs.

    And even for adults that can't afford an EN, it's still a good compromise to add a steam engine to their collection.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    The Constitution has great potential. Not the easiest to motorize, but can be done. With a little imagination, one could make this into a great Steam Engine set.
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    @Pitfall69 :-) I beg to differ, I found the Constitution very easy to motorize and that is surprising given its the very first train I motorized. :-) It looks awesome chugging away in the winter village. I see great potential in this set at sale prices.
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