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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    adventure_al said:

    Hi could anyone tell me if LOTR council of Elrond is current or likely to be retired? I picked one up at a good price.

    How does city stuff hold up? I managed to get the garbage truck too

    Most city stuff is recycled year after year, very little of it does anything, but each year there is usually one or two sets that surprise and do well.

    Council of Elrond just came out, it won't be going anywhere for awhile.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,526
    adventure_al said:

    Hi could anyone tell me if LOTR council of Elrond is current or likely to be retired? I picked one up at a good price.

    It will be out for a while yet. It has already been heavily discounted in the UK too. I got a couple at 50% off. Not to invest though, but for the parts.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    As someone else said before, and I agree, Batman Funhouse will be the next Burrow.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    LegoFanTexas said:


    Most city stuff is recycled year after year, very little of it does anything, but each year there is usually one or two sets that surprise and do well.

    This year it is the mining truck #4202. Vanished last year very quickly and is now a very nice add on for boys who have already the mine. It's going for 2,5 - 3,5 x retail price.

  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Uh, retail on that set was $35 I believe. The set is hardly selling for $40-$45, shipping included.
    FollowsClosely
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Yeah, I can testify. I bought a bunch of mining trucks at $17.50 and have barely dented them at $38.99 plus shipping. I do however think it is a good set and will eventually do ok.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I think there will be a new construction series before the 4202 can climb to solid levels. I bought a few too many, and have begun parting them out. Yellow parts are always in shorter supply for me.
  • iluvmyelementiluvmyelement Member Posts: 52
    littlepuppi said:

    As someone else said before, and I agree, Batman Funhouse will be the next Burrow.

    And when everyone thinks that - usually the opposite happens. I think too many people loaded up on these and that there are other sets that people dismissed that will do much better.
    madforLEGO
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    ^That's why I stocked up on #30230. I can't believe they were giving these things away!
    FollowsClosely
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited December 2013
    ^^It just comes down to your tolerance for risk and gut instinct.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    LEGO Marvel Super Heroes Wolverine's Chopper Showdown, Set 6866 was a surprise to me. In a way. I figured that based on the price with the minifigs it would do well so I got quite a few. Just didn't think it would do so well so soon. I sold most of mine for $38. A huge jump in such a short time. I was going to save them for next Christmas until I saw them shoot up in price.

    Now I wonder if I should have kept half of them for later. Will this set go to $50? Wouldn't surprise me if it did.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    City garage (when you buy 2) is about $85 shipped at TRU after tax. Trying to decide if this is worth stocking up on. It's not all that impressive of a set, but it does have a few redeeming attributes such as the van.

    It's retiring soon according to [email protected], but who knows how long TRU will have them in stock.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    iluvmyelement said:

    And when everyone thinks that - usually the opposite happens. I think too many people loaded up on these and that there are other sets that people dismissed that will do much better.

    If you check the cheapest price for it in Europe on BL, it's already EUR 69, that's about 2xRRP. On ebay UK it's selling between GBP 60-80. US price is a different matter though...
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    FatMatt said:

    ^Uh, retail on that set was $35 I believe. The set is hardly selling for $40-$45, shipping included.

    Here in germany the mining truck's retail price was 20€. I got them for 15€ and today on ebay the set is going for +50€ +shipping:
    http://www.ebay.de/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=lego+4202&_in_kw=1&_ex_kw=&_sacat=0&_okw=&_oexkw=&_adv=1&LH_Sold=1&_udlo=&_udhi=&LH_BIN=1&LH_ItemCondition=3&_samilow=&_samihi=&_sadis=200&_fpos=&LH_SALE_CURRENCY=0&_sop=12&_dmd=1&_ipg=200&LH_Complete=1

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    nkx1 said:

    City garage (when you buy 2) is about $85 shipped at TRU after tax. Trying to decide if this is worth stocking up on. It's not all that impressive of a set, but it does have a few redeeming attributes such as the van.

    It's retiring soon according to [email protected], but who knows how long TRU will have them in stock.

    I see this set doing well in retirement. It's a great City set because of the coolness of the vertical action and multiple vehicles.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I see the opposite. If the goal is to triple purchase price, I just don't see that hitting $250, ever. Too easy to build your own from loose parts. How many city sets triple in retirement in the past 5 years? City Corner is about the only one I can think of.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    ^I bought a few right after I posted. I keep telling myself I'm going to stop with the reselling, but when certain opportunities arise, it's hard to pass up (sort of like compulsive gambling, but more lucrative).

    I guess when purchased at $85, even reselling at $120 MSRP, one can make his/her money back (probably about the worst case scenario for this set).
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    ^^Even if I can net $50-$75 on each set, why not do that? It probably takes me 20 to 30 minutes at the very most to list, pack and drop off at FedEx 2 minutes from my house. $100-150 per hour is generally more than I make working.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Nothing wrong with that at all. Sometimes that's what many of us end up on a set. It just comes down to the value of your time.
    FollowsClosely
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^I think everyone values their time differently. I try to equate the value of my time with what I would earn working for any given time period.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    prevere said:

    Nothing wrong with that at all. Sometimes that's what many of us end up on a set. It just comes down to the value of your time.

    Or if you're just tired of looking at something on the shelf. Cad Bane Speeders - I'm talking to you.
    Bumblepants
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ Uhh, thanks for that... I had wiped the Can Bane Speeders from my memory, had completely forgotten about them, and there you go having to bring them back up...

    I'll be sending you my therapy bill. :)
    prevere
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,383
    prevere said:

    ^I see the opposite. If the goal is to triple purchase price, I just don't see that hitting $250, ever. Too easy to build your own from loose parts. How many city sets triple in retirement in the past 5 years? City Corner is about the only one I can think of.

    #7936
    #7731
    #7732

    And maybe not triple but there are several easily pushing at least double
    #3222
    #7639
    #7636


  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,725
    edited December 2013
    littlepuppi said:

    As someone else said before, and I agree, Batman Funhouse will be the next Burrow.

    I doubt it, not in the US. The Burrows was only out for a small amount of time. The Funhouse I believe has been out longer and due to many sales and the knowledge of others that this will be a sought after set (as it is exclusive in the US to TRU) will likely mean many people have them AND TRU still has them as well I think.
    pharmjod said:

    Yeah, I can testify. I bought a bunch of mining trucks at $17.50 and have barely dented them at $38.99 plus shipping. I do however think it is a good set and will eventually do ok.

    I have a few. Heck if it does not do well Ill keep them and use them for my layout when I start it.
    nkx1 said:

    City garage (when you buy 2) is about $85 shipped at TRU after tax. Trying to decide if this is worth stocking up on. It's not all that impressive of a set, but it does have a few redeeming attributes such as the van.

    It's retiring soon according to [email protected], but who knows how long TRU will have them in stock.

    I think the City Garage will do well. It is not huge, and you can technically BL it, but it is a TRU exclusive and not really out for long (as long as typical City sets anyway). I see more casual fans of LEGO buying them, not BLing them like with Mods.
    roxio said:

    prevere said:

    ^I see the opposite. If the goal is to triple purchase price, I just don't see that hitting $250, ever. Too easy to build your own from loose parts. How many city sets triple in retirement in the past 5 years? City Corner is about the only one I can think of.

    #7936
    #7731
    #7732

    And maybe not triple but there are several easily pushing at least double
    #3222
    #7639
    #7636


    Do not forget the #7633, #7637
    Also not triple but climbing and not likely to be remade this year or next: #3182, #8404

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited December 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^ Uhh, thanks for that... I had wiped the Can Bane Speeders from my memory, had completely forgotten about them, and there you go having to bring them back up...

    I'll be sending you my therapy bill. :)

    Same here! I just knew that set was going to do well after retirement. Too bad I didn't have that Amazon algorithm. :-)

  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    edited December 2013
    roxio said:

    prevere said:

    ^I see the opposite. If the goal is to triple purchase price, I just don't see that hitting $250, ever. Too easy to build your own from loose parts. How many city sets triple in retirement in the past 5 years? City Corner is about the only one I can think of.

    #7936
    #7731
    #7732

    And maybe not triple but there are several easily pushing at least double
    #3222
    #7639
    #7636


    big difference tripling a $15 set and tripling a $120 set. and the 3222 had an extremely limited run.

    A better comparison for the garage is likely other recent $100 non-rehash city sets:
    #8404
    #7633
    #7642

    All slow-moving sets in the 1.5x - 2x range. and all much more substantial feeling than the garage
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    prevere said:

    ^I see the opposite. If the goal is to triple purchase price, I just don't see that hitting $250, ever. Too easy to build your own from loose parts. How many city sets triple in retirement in the past 5 years? City Corner is about the only one I can think of.

    Triple, double, etc. goals depend on the set size. I'd be more than happy with a mere doubling of a $100 set. Conversely, for it to be worth my time, I'd have to get a least triple on something like a $10 set. This is a solid "big" City set imho.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    madforLEGO said:

    littlepuppi said:

    As someone else said before, and I agree, Batman Funhouse will be the next Burrow.

    I doubt it, not in the US. The Burrows was only out for a small amount of time. The Funhouse I believe has been out longer and due to many sales and the knowledge of others that this will be a sought after set (as it is exclusive in the US to TRU) will likely mean many people have them AND TRU still has them as well I think.
    pharmjod said:

    Yeah, I can testify. I bought a bunch of mining trucks at $17.50 and have barely dented them at $38.99 plus shipping. I do however think it is a good set and will eventually do ok.

    I have a few. Heck if it does not do well Ill keep them and use them for my layout when I start it.
    nkx1 said:

    City garage (when you buy 2) is about $85 shipped at TRU after tax. Trying to decide if this is worth stocking up on. It's not all that impressive of a set, but it does have a few redeeming attributes such as the van.

    It's retiring soon according to [email protected], but who knows how long TRU will have them in stock.

    I think the City Garage will do well. It is not huge, and you can technically BL it, but it is a TRU exclusive and not really out for long (as long as typical City sets anyway). I see more casual fans of LEGO buying them, not BLing them like with Mods.
    roxio said:

    prevere said:

    ^I see the opposite. If the goal is to triple purchase price, I just don't see that hitting $250, ever. Too easy to build your own from loose parts. How many city sets triple in retirement in the past 5 years? City Corner is about the only one I can think of.

    #7936
    #7731
    #7732

    And maybe not triple but there are several easily pushing at least double
    #3222
    #7639
    #7636


    Do not forget the #7633, #7637
    Also not triple but climbing and not likely to be remade this year or next: #3182, #8404

    No doubt. Never underestimate farm sets, sheesh. That combine harvester set was my best friend for a short while.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Thanks all for pointing out a few of the city winners I neglected. I think it's clear that no police or fire are on that list. Any anything involving a train is usually a thumbs up.

    Part of me feels the Town Square is under-rated, but without a discount - I hesitate greatly on it. The Town Plan from the mid-2000s was a gem. Not sure the TS can live up to that.
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,659
    nkx1 said:

    City garage (when you buy 2) is about $85 shipped at TRU after tax.

    It is better to just buy 1 instead and add $10 (like 2 polys), you'll be paying $76+tx for the whole order (and repeat if you want too/two :)

    FollowsCloselyTheLoneTensornkx1
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Helms Deep ran out on Amazon, that was fast for the last 275 copies, what was that, 24 hours?

    Boy they sure can move a lot of inventory fast, and that was at full price.

    Crazy...

    Anyone think Helms Deep will get to $200 by next Christmas? $250?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I notice that Fire Brigade hasn't moved much. Heck, GE is selling for almost as much and it is still current.

    Thoughts on how long it will take to burn off the "need the money now" crowd? There seem to be a ton of these for sale, and that doesn't count those in closets just waiting to come out.

    Wait, that didn't sound right... ;)
    TheBrickLadd
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited December 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Anyone think Helms Deep will get to $200 by next Christmas? $250?

    Far too many stocked both in the USA and overseas for it to get to $200 anytime soon IMO. Just mountains of them listed all the way to $200....not quite as bad as 10193 but it will take a few years to clear out the dead wood. Excellent set if you are parting out tho.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,725
    prevere said:

    Thanks all for pointing out a few of the city winners I neglected. I think it's clear that no police or fire are on that list. Any anything involving a train is usually a thumbs up.

    Part of me feels the Town Square is under-rated, but without a discount - I hesitate greatly on it. The Town Plan from the mid-2000s was a gem. Not sure the TS can live up to that.

    That is why it was good to see them for 75 for teh TRU doorbuster. Turns out they had plenty so when I was looking for something else at TRU I picked up another one for 75
    LegoFanTexas said:

    I notice that Fire Brigade hasn't moved much. Heck, GE is selling for almost as much and it is still current.

    Thoughts on how long it will take to burn off the "need the money now" crowd? There seem to be a ton of these for sale, and that doesn't count those in closets just waiting to come out.

    Wait, that didn't sound right... ;)


    That and I'm hearing rumors about GE being done by this spring. Seeing it appears LEGO is the one one with stock and it is still available overseas I am watching that one like a hawk
  • korkor Member Posts: 392
    For about 20 minutes today amazon had Helm's Deep at 104.99. I just couldn't pull the trigger because I had no idea how long I'd have to sit on it to double up. I'm still not sure I made the right move.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I remember thinking that about the last Hogwarts Castle. Helms has two great things about it, A) unlikely to be done again, B) it's a castle.
    FollowsCloselycardgenius
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,815
    prevere said:

    ^I remember thinking that about the last Hogwarts Castle. Helms has two great things about it, A) unlikely to be done again, B) it's a castle.

    It may have a disadvantage in that none of the Fellowship minifigures are unique to the set, and that of its three unique minifigures, only Theoden is a major character.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    doriansdad said:

    LegoFanTexas said:

    Anyone think Helms Deep will get to $200 by next Christmas? $250?

    Far too many stocked both in the USA and overseas for it to get to $200 anytime soon IMO. Just mountains of them listed all the way to $200....not quite as bad as 10193 but it will take a few years to clear out the dead wood. Excellent set if you are parting out tho.

    It will be $200 easy by next xmas...
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ I find it so interesting that within a span of 4 posts, you have one person saying, "no way it gets to $200, too many of them", followed by someone saying, "easy $200, no problem".

    Only time will tell of course... :)
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^ Yeah, but I know what I'm talking about! ;)

    Well, it already was hitting $180 when Amazon sold out last week. And then Amazon (presumably) moved over 1000 of them at (mostly) full retail in the span of a week. Yeah yeah, it's xmas and all that, but I think that tells you everything you need to know...
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^If it sells for $200 on Amazon, what is your cut after fees?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Haymarket, VAMember Posts: 1,269
    ^ Yep it is a castle. Even thought I got 11 of mine for $60 at target (like many others I am sure), I still expect ebay to be at $200 next Christmas. It is a CASTLE, and did I mention its the largest castle Lego has made? Most likely it will hold that position for some time to come.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    BrickDancer said:

    ^If it sells for $200 on Amazon, what is your cut after fees?

    ~$160 (after accounting for fees/shipping).

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Bandit said:

    ^ Yeah, but I know what I'm talking about! ;)

    Well, it already was hitting $180 when Amazon sold out last week. And then Amazon (presumably) moved over 1000 of them at (mostly) full retail in the span of a week. Yeah yeah, it's xmas and all that, but I think that tells you everything you need to know...

    Amazon is a funny beast... Sometimes the price there is just nuts, higher than everywhere else. Then other times it isn't, Diagon Alley is a recent example.

    I expect Helms Deep to spike to $180+ for the next week, but I think it will drop to $150 next summer... slack demand and some sellers will be short on cashflow and forced to sell something.

    It will then rise back up, how much depends on what else is for sale at the time and how many come out of the closet to be sold.

    Will it hit $200 on Amazon? Yea, it might, but the fees there mean that it isn't the same thing as $200 on Bricklink/eBay.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    edited December 2013
    Yet another city set could be do well: #7937. It's sold out at [email protected] europe for only two weeks and already vanished almost from any online shop here in europe. Today I was in all my local shops where I can normally find it. Nothing nada zilch zero! Amazing how fast that set has gone! I think it is due to Crhistmas season now.
    The set itself don't have any rare parts but it is the only train station available at retail price. If TLG isn't able to bring a new one to Easter or Christmas 2014 it will be a burner.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    BrickDancer said:

    ^If it sells for $200 on Amazon, what is your cut after fees?

    Total net to you - About $155 after all the various fees and costs (shipping, storage, etc).

    That isn't bad, but if you bought it for $130 and held it a year, that is more or less a waste of time. If you bought it for $80, it is a much better deal...

    But you need to budget something else in there. Someone can buy it, open it, return it, get a full refund, then you're left with a used set. It doesn't happen often, but when it does, yuck.

    Then you have to pay to have it shipped back to you, then you can sell it used.

    Whee! :)

    It isn't so bad if you have 100 to sell, you're likely to get 1 or 2 back, but that is 1 or 2 percent, not the biggest deal, and you do get the set back, even if opened, half built, used... but you get something back.

    If you only have 2 to sell and 1 comes back, yuck...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Bandit said:

    BrickDancer said:

    ^If it sells for $200 on Amazon, what is your cut after fees?

    ~$160 (after accounting for fees/shipping).
    I knew someone would say that! :)

    If you don't account for inbound shipping, any storage fees, no customer returns, and you're using the pre Feb 15th, 2014 rates, then you'd be correct.

    If you do bulk shipping, as in 50+ sets at a time, you can get the inbound shipping cost for Helms Deep down to a dollar per set, if all the stars align...

    Amazon charges 42 cents a month to store it, that is over $5 a year per set. Send it in now, then sell it next Christmas, it adds up. Not a huge cost, but worth doing the math on.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    edited December 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Bandit said:

    BrickDancer said:

    ^If it sells for $200 on Amazon, what is your cut after fees?

    ~$160 (after accounting for fees/shipping).
    I knew someone would say that! :)

    If you don't account for inbound shipping, any storage fees, no customer returns, and you're using the pre Feb 15th, 2014 rates, then you'd be correct.

    If you do bulk shipping, as in 50+ sets at a time, you can get the inbound shipping cost for Helms Deep down to a dollar per set, if all the stars align...

    Amazon charges 42 cents a month to store it, that is over $5 a year per set. Send it in now, then sell it next Christmas, it adds up. Not a huge cost, but worth doing the math on.
    Well, that's why I said ~$160 and not $160. :) You are right, depending on whether you FBA or self fulfill, and depending on specifics in both cases, final shipping cost could vary a few dollars one way or the other. But I think ~$10 accounts for anything from $8-$12. I'm out anywhere from $8-$14 self fulfilling a set this size.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    All true, and if you're doubling your money on a $130 RRP set, it probably doesn't matter about $5-10 one way or another. The more marginal deals where you're making $10-20 a set, it makes a huge difference.

    All I'm saying is, do the math... include all your costs... those $180 (and someday $200) listings are all FBA, those sellers have costs beyond just putting it in their closet and shipping it off when it sells.

    To compete with the $200 listing, you'll need to price at $189.99 + $7.49 shipping, you'll get a few sales that way when the FBA seller is at $199.99.

    But now you're really at $197.48, your shipping cost will really be higher than $7, etc. Or sell at $199.99 but have inbound shipping costs and storage costs and more returns.

    All I'm saying is that a lot of stars have to align to be at $160 for that set selling for $200.

    Why does this matter? Because if eBay is netting $150, you think you're making $10 more a set on Amazon. I can tell you from a lot of personal experience, that is often not the case.

    On a set like that, if the difference is less than $10 between eBay and Amazon, I'll sell on eBay.

    Why? Because on eBay I can say "no returns". That has value. :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited December 2013
    ^ Very interesting. I didn't know that Amazon would store your inventory for you. I guess that's why an item will say 'Sold by xxx, shipped by amazon'? I mean do they ship, package, etc. the set for you? You just own them?

    Also, I wonder how they keep everyone's inventory separate and accounted for. I'm very impressed.
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