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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited December 2013
    ^ I too think the train will do well, because it's a errr.... train. :-) And, a locomotive.
    TheLoneTensorPitfall69
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 126
    doriansdad said:

    No doubt TLG knew they were going to take a bath on TLR

    Who says they "took a bath" on it? You really think TLG lost money on TLR sets? Or Disney for that matter? Just because they didn't sell like SW or HP doesn't mean it wasn't good business.

    Admittedly, I have no inside knowledge of the TLG/Disney arrangement on licensed sets, but I can't imagine that TLG would be willing to pay some huge sum up front that they have to make back over time by selling a certain number of sets. It's more likely a profit sharing deal, or some hybrid of the two where there is relatively little risk of significant loss. Sure, they have some up front cost associated with designing sets and packaging, creating a few custom molds and launching a marketing campaign, but it's peanuts compared to overall profit margins, regardless of how popular the movie was.

    I just don't understand the excitement over TLG's presumed failure.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited December 2013
    Frankly, I encourage any and all opinions that think it's a bad call. Less competition is always a welcome thing.
    FollowsCloselyjasor
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    ^Except if you're a consumer!

    Also, if the sets aren't all that popular now (presumably they aren't, given the near permanent sales on TLR), why would they all of a sudden be popular in the aftermarket? Hopefully for your sake they are and I am wrong, but I just don't see the sets being exceptionally profitable. Although, any profit is a good profit, I suppose.
    TheLoneTensor
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    ^ Plenty of sets have been popular in the aftermarket that weren't very popular whist available, but then again your point of view stands up for other sets. I have a few trains but I'm not sure what they'll do, that's why on sets like these I will only buy at 'can't lose' prices.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited December 2013
    nkx1 said:

    ^Except if you're a consumer!

    Also, if the sets aren't all that popular now (presumably they aren't, given the near permanent sales on TLR), why would they all of a sudden be popular in the aftermarket? Hopefully for your sake they are and I am wrong, but I just don't see the sets being exceptionally profitable. Although, any profit is a good profit, I suppose.

    That's a really good question actually. By the same token, why does anything go up in value after it's off the market? I think the concept of retirement and subsequent unavailability simply ticks up the perceived goodness factor of a set, some obviously more than others.
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    edited December 2013
    Interesting that #10235 is showing sold out at S@H UK. Personally think it will be back, but who knows these days?
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    TheLoneTensor said:

    ...why does anything go up in value after it's off the market? I think the concept of retirement and subsequent unavailability simply ticks up the perceived goodness factor of a set, some obviously more than others.

    You're probably right, and maybe TLR will be a typical case of people wanting what they can't have (or at least wanting something that is harder to get). Who knows, maybe TLR is a good of a gamble as any. I was just speculating.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Glad to see the train station going, now they can replace it with a better one :)
    thenosFollowsClosely
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    TLR Cavalry is a superb little set. 3 western army builders, a horse, a cannon. Even better, no flesh printing on the torso meaning you can yellow them up by replacing heads and hands.
    Pitfall69
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Ok, so the WV Cottage, a really nice set, is only out for a year? S@H is sold out with no date for restocking, so I guess it's gone. For such a nice effort, I'm surprised by that. Although the Bakery and Post Office were only out a year.

    That probably means the WV Market will be out for about 5 years then.
    pharmjod
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I won't be surprised if they bring it back since they now have the $99 price point. I think it was mentioned before as speculation that perhaps thats why they wanted to get rid of the Post Office since it was at a cheaper price point and might be confusing to consumers or compete for sales. With the way they are doing modulars, it seems silly of them to only have the winter village sets for 2 holiday seasons. Having 2 or 3 or even 4 sets available at the same time at the same price point may be their goal. I have been buying one of each basically as soon as they are available so I don't miss out. Not sure about where they are going with the line though so I've been hesitant to stock up on the newest sets because I don't want to end up with a stack of sets for years on end waiting for LEGO to retire them (ala Fire Brigade).
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    prevere said:

    Ok, so the WV Cottage, a really nice set, is only out for a year? S@H is sold out with no date for restocking, so I guess it's gone. For such a nice effort, I'm surprised by that. Although the Bakery and Post Office were only out a year.

    That probably means the WV Market will be out for about 5 years then.

    A year, but two full Christmas seasons at least.
  • legoprodslegoprods Member Posts: 445
    So, should I buy a few Cottages or will I lament it by next year?
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    edited December 2013
    I think @pharmjod's point is an interesting one and one that could be very valid. While they still may only stick to two $100 sets for this theme, they really had to get rid of the low price points sets.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2013
    doriansdad said:

    I really like 10229. Stocked up on it with 3x VIP and 40082. Glad it disappeared under the radar.

    I have found that the best time to purchase a WV-themed set is the year before it's supposed to go EOL. For example, they had the cottage on sale for $70 at the Lego B&M store I visited post Christmas 2012...plus VIP points. The same was true ($50) for the WV Post Office post Christmas 2011 at Amazon.

    I did my WV Market shopping with the triple VIP points this year, but plan to see if those go on sale post Christmas 2013 as well. There are a lot of good Lego sets out there, but I am now a WV completest...for better or for worse.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2013
    pharmjod said:

    I won't be surprised if they bring it back since they now have the $99 price point.

    They'll bring it back because it's an exclusive and Lego no longer discounts exclusives. ;-)
    pharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2013
    Personally, I view #79111 and #7597 about the same. The #79111 set will probably do a little better because it's a more realistic and generally nicer looking set, but #7597 has more popular minifigs. I would expect them both to perform similarly post-EOL of TLR. It would be interesting to look into a crystal ball and see how they compare 5 years out...since both are extremely unlikely to ever be made again by Lego.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    #79111 has the benefit of being a more "adult" looking set, I think it will do better than the Toy Story train...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Farmer_John said:


    I did my WV Market shopping with the triple VIP points this year, but plan to see if those go on sale post Christmas 2013 as well. There are a lot of good Lego sets out there, but I am now a WV completest...for better or for worse.

    10235 won't be on sale in the USA. It is on the no discount list. You did well to buy it with triple VIP, I will do the same for it pre BF 2014.

    I was surprised 10229 went so quickly at RRP.....TLG has certainly got alot better at inventory management.

  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^^Five years might be a big gamble, at least for me. Lego will probably release multiple trains during that time, and maybe one of them could serve as a replacement for the TLR train. You could probably by and resell several sets with the same $70 that you paid for the TLR train (during that five years) and make as much or more money, and be exposed to less risk. My opinion, of course.
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    #79111 should do pretty well, it has a lot of positives. It comes with tracks, can be easily motorized without compromising its looks, goes perfectly with the winter village sets, can be found at great sale prices. :-)
    This is a non-reseller's opinion. :-))
  • adventure_aladventure_al Member Posts: 243
    As investment pieces how do you guys feel Spider-mans daily bugle showdown will stand up? And the smaller superhero sets like ironman v mandarin and arctic batman?
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    adventure_al said:

    As investment pieces how do you guys feel Spider-mans daily bugle showdown will stand up?

    OK, due to the appeal of the unique minifigs.
    adventure_al said:


    And the smaller superhero sets like ironman v mandarin and arctic batman?

    1) Not great, due to the rubbish version of Mandarin. But saved by the Heart Breaker armour.

    2) OK, due to the appeal of the unique minifigs.
  • jasorjasor Member Posts: 839
    adventure_al said:

    As investment pieces how do you guys feel Spider-mans daily bugle showdown will stand up? And the smaller superhero sets like ironman v mandarin and arctic batman?

    1) meh.
    2) make sure to get an "Artic" version. You'll get oodles more! kidding. The figs are pretty cool.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Just noticed 6857 is listed as retired on S@H international sites.
    FollowsCloselymargot
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,837
    edited December 2013
    doriansdad said:

    Just noticed 6857 is listed as retired on S@H international sites.

    Sold out at US S@H site as well.
    People were speculating that GE was on its way out and now the GE on US S@H is now on backorder...lol
    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,382
    edited December 2013
    FollowsClosely said:


    ...
    If numbers don't lie, now is the time to stock up on your GE.
    ...

    I would not be surprised to see GE gone everywhere by this spring. The way I see it five modulars out at once is just too many. Too many for customers to choose from, too many to keep production rolling on, to much shelf space and too much to show on the back of a box:)

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,837
    TLR sets are starting to run out at LEGO: Colby City and Silver Mine are both showing as call for availability...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    doriansdad said:

    Just noticed 6857 is listed as retired on S@H international sites.

    PTL! I've had several of these in boxes waiting to be EOL'd since the first day they were on sale. No brainer in my humble opinion...
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Battle of Hoth 75014 has gone to sold out on S@H. Other than Mace Windu's Starfighter, I am hard pressed to name another SW set that sold out so quickly after introduction.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    Local Lego Store has all TLR on a 20% off sale. May have to get 1-2 79107 Commache Camp sets as that one never seemed to go on sale. Its kind of the low point of the series IMO but for completionists I guess that doesnt matter.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    madforLEGO said:

    TLR sets are starting to run out at LEGO: Colby City and Silver Mine are both showing as call for availability...

    Yeah, but I bet we see aggressive discounting post-Xmas for these. And the returns....How many uncles are going to buy a Stagecoach thinking how cool it is, only to have little Jimmy stop by Wally on 12-26 to trade for an A-Wing.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited December 2013
    walmart sold it for effective $9.99 . it was priced $19.99 with $10.00 gift card with net result of $9.99.
    FenrisAkashi said:

    Local Lego Store has all TLR on a 20% off sale. May have to get 1-2 79107 Commache Camp sets as that one never seemed to go on sale. Its kind of the low point of the series IMO but for completionists I guess that doesnt matter.

  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    Just stopped by my brand store and picked up another WV cottage on the off chance they are not coming back. FWIW, the staff there was of the belief that when these were gone, they were gone.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    And TLR was all 30% off.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    ^^^ I just did the same thing, picked up a couple of what is apparently the last stock of WVC's. Also noticed all Lone Ranger sets discounted 30% off. Doc Ock Ambush which is on the way out was discounted to $14.99 so I pulled the trigger on a few of those as well. Part of me thinks the WVC will be back next year though, guess we'll see.
    FollowsClosely
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I used to think there was a method to the EOL madness where WV was concerned, but all bets are off after the Post Office unexpectedly went EOL. If I was a betting man, I would say that WVC will be back next year...but I've been wrong before!
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    fitzyfitz said:

    FB is retiring at the end of the year, along with the mini-modulars. All the other modulars are staying.

    B-wing & Winter Village Cottage are also on the way out.

    fitzyfitz said:

    There's plenty of other stuff but those are the four exclusives. The Lone Ranger and Galaxy Squad are both getting a short shelf-life and will also be going at the end of the year. Monster Fighters too, except for the Haunted House.

    Not too shabby fitz :)

  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    Hmmm, so should I buy all the Galactic Titans available to me for $65 each? I'm thinking no, but it's tempting. It's the largest space set ever offered (by piece count), but it is a funky bug theme.

    Edit: Nevermind, Earth Defense EQ, the closest comparison, seems like it was a bit of a dud.

    Yeah, 50% off seems like the wiser choice, pharmjod.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I'm thinking I'll wait until I see them at 50% after Christmas. Even then I doubt I'll buy more than a couple
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I bought a few of the Titan sets... One to keep, cause I think it is pretty cool, the others, we'll see... probably not do anything special, but sometimes we get surprised...

    If there is a quick flip to be had, it will be soon, that is not a "keep for 2-3 years" set I think...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,837
    Will be interesting to see what LEGO does for end of year discounts. But if TLR is only at 25% off I'm guessing many will yawn due to the cyber Monday deals. I would not be surprised to see the City Garage and The Mine on sale though for City (if they are still around by then).

    I'm guessing the Galactic Titans will be this years #7066
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    i think although TLR movie was a flop.. its LEGO line did pretty well. especially #79106, #79107, #79108, #79109 and #79111 :) so the lone loser in this line up is #79110 the silver mine shootout...

    #79109 colby city was OOS online in target on the buy 1 get 1 30OFF.. it was on and off on the 20% off day... and none available around my area.


  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I think #79111 will do very well, $150 by next summer, it may be approaching $200 by next Christmas, on eBay anyway...

    It is a train, it comes with track, it is the poor man's Emerald Night, and unlike the Toy Story train, it looks "adult enough".

    This of course is void if TLG comes out with another cool train remotely like it before then.
  • bp10030bp10030 Member Posts: 102
    starwarfan77 said:

    i think although TLR movie was a flop.. its LEGO line did pretty well. especially #79106, #79107, #79108, #79109 and #79111 :) so the lone loser in this line up is #79110 the silver mine shootout...

    silver mine is a nice set: is connectable to train layouts, has much playability, nice minifigs and rare pieces...

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    How many of you have picked up the silver mine shootout box?

    Personally, it feels like a lot is in the box, even at RRP, at the $45 or so it has been on sale for, it strikes me as a bargain.

    Maybe not for massive resale, but a nice set regardless.
  • bp10030bp10030 Member Posts: 102
    Yes, the box is full and heavy! I've got four (2 to build a super silver mine, 2 for later). Payed for each 34€ (56% off). If you get it at least 20% off you cannot lose. But like LFT said I wouldn't buy to many.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,382
    LegoFanTexas said:

    I think #79111 will do very well, $150 by next summer, it may be approaching $200 by next Christmas, on eBay anyway...

    It is a train, it comes with track, it is the poor man's Emerald Night, and unlike the Toy Story train, it looks "adult enough".

    This of course is void if TLG comes out with another cool train remotely like it before then.

    I picked up a few at $60 each, as I suspect many did. I would be pleased and surprised if it was at $150 Christmas 2014.
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    The train's got some unique parts as well, like the dark green slopes and the slingshot; also some in unique colors. That will contribute to the value if they don't make another appearance in the near future.
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