Shopping at LEGO or Amazon?
Please use our links: LEGO.comAmazon
As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

1332333335337338675

Comments

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    If I had to invest in TLR theme (and I am very glad I don't) I would choose the Train. It is not going to be a Black Pearl or a Queen Anne but it is certainly the strongest of a very weak lineup in terms of future performance. We all have to cut our teeth on some shocking picks when we first start out and you could have picked worse.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,777
    edited December 2013
    samiam391 said:

    Glad it disappeared under the radar.

    Except for those of us who missed it to put in with our Christmas villages :o(
    Well if you have a local LEGO store keep watch. Last year after Christmas, my local LEGO store got a load in from another store that could not clear them out. They were also on sale from 20-30% off. I picked up 3 like this. and another one this year for 3X VIP points.
    Not sure if that will occur again -as it is EOL and you may have panic/reseller buying, but just saying check LEGO stores once Christmas is over.
    I plan to do this again for the WVM after Christmas

    As for TLR, I'm not sure you are going to see that at LEGO.com for better than 25% off for most sets. I think many of the deals for Cyber Monday and BF may be the best buys for TLR stuff.
    I would not be surprised to see another Walmart dump of any TLR they have left in stores for 50% though.. Will need to watch stores around here.

    If I had to invest in TLR theme (and I am very glad I don't) I would choose the Train. It is not going to be a Black Pearl or a Queen Anne but it is certainly the strongest of a very weak lineup in terms of future performance. We all have to cut our teeth on some shocking picks when we first start out and you could have picked worse.

    I got most of the TLR sets on sales prices and mostly for parts than anything else. The trains are probably going to be the decent sets, but since they were widely available for 30-40% off lately I'm not sure you are going to see a huge climb in price
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    The Calavalry is probably doing very well already since it's not in the retirement list. I don't see the stagecoach doing well, it's already priced too high and the minifigs are going to draw it down rather than up. But the train and quite possibly Colby city may do fine if purchased at a decent enough discount.
    TheLoneTensor
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited December 2013
    ^ I too think the train will do well, because it's a errr.... train. :-) And, a locomotive.
    TheLoneTensorPitfall69
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112

    No doubt TLG knew they were going to take a bath on TLR

    Who says they "took a bath" on it? You really think TLG lost money on TLR sets? Or Disney for that matter? Just because they didn't sell like SW or HP doesn't mean it wasn't good business.

    Admittedly, I have no inside knowledge of the TLG/Disney arrangement on licensed sets, but I can't imagine that TLG would be willing to pay some huge sum up front that they have to make back over time by selling a certain number of sets. It's more likely a profit sharing deal, or some hybrid of the two where there is relatively little risk of significant loss. Sure, they have some up front cost associated with designing sets and packaging, creating a few custom molds and launching a marketing campaign, but it's peanuts compared to overall profit margins, regardless of how popular the movie was.

    I just don't understand the excitement over TLG's presumed failure.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited December 2013
    Frankly, I encourage any and all opinions that think it's a bad call. Less competition is always a welcome thing.
    FollowsCloselyjasor
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    ^Except if you're a consumer!

    Also, if the sets aren't all that popular now (presumably they aren't, given the near permanent sales on TLR), why would they all of a sudden be popular in the aftermarket? Hopefully for your sake they are and I am wrong, but I just don't see the sets being exceptionally profitable. Although, any profit is a good profit, I suppose.
    TheLoneTensor
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ Plenty of sets have been popular in the aftermarket that weren't very popular whist available, but then again your point of view stands up for other sets. I have a few trains but I'm not sure what they'll do, that's why on sets like these I will only buy at 'can't lose' prices.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited December 2013
    nkx1 said:

    ^Except if you're a consumer!

    Also, if the sets aren't all that popular now (presumably they aren't, given the near permanent sales on TLR), why would they all of a sudden be popular in the aftermarket? Hopefully for your sake they are and I am wrong, but I just don't see the sets being exceptionally profitable. Although, any profit is a good profit, I suppose.

    That's a really good question actually. By the same token, why does anything go up in value after it's off the market? I think the concept of retirement and subsequent unavailability simply ticks up the perceived goodness factor of a set, some obviously more than others.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    edited December 2013
    Interesting that #10235 is showing sold out at [email protected] UK. Personally think it will be back, but who knows these days?
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719

    ...why does anything go up in value after it's off the market? I think the concept of retirement and subsequent unavailability simply ticks up the perceived goodness factor of a set, some obviously more than others.

    You're probably right, and maybe TLR will be a typical case of people wanting what they can't have (or at least wanting something that is harder to get). Who knows, maybe TLR is a good of a gamble as any. I was just speculating.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Glad to see the train station going, now they can replace it with a better one :)
    thenosFollowsClosely
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,874
    TLR Cavalry is a superb little set. 3 western army builders, a horse, a cannon. Even better, no flesh printing on the torso meaning you can yellow them up by replacing heads and hands.
    Pitfall69
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    Ok, so the WV Cottage, a really nice set, is only out for a year? [email protected] is sold out with no date for restocking, so I guess it's gone. For such a nice effort, I'm surprised by that. Although the Bakery and Post Office were only out a year.

    That probably means the WV Market will be out for about 5 years then.
    pharmjod
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    I won't be surprised if they bring it back since they now have the $99 price point. I think it was mentioned before as speculation that perhaps thats why they wanted to get rid of the Post Office since it was at a cheaper price point and might be confusing to consumers or compete for sales. With the way they are doing modulars, it seems silly of them to only have the winter village sets for 2 holiday seasons. Having 2 or 3 or even 4 sets available at the same time at the same price point may be their goal. I have been buying one of each basically as soon as they are available so I don't miss out. Not sure about where they are going with the line though so I've been hesitant to stock up on the newest sets because I don't want to end up with a stack of sets for years on end waiting for LEGO to retire them (ala Fire Brigade).
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    prevere said:

    Ok, so the WV Cottage, a really nice set, is only out for a year? [email protected] is sold out with no date for restocking, so I guess it's gone. For such a nice effort, I'm surprised by that. Although the Bakery and Post Office were only out a year.

    That probably means the WV Market will be out for about 5 years then.

    A year, but two full Christmas seasons at least.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 441
    So, should I buy a few Cottages or will I lament it by next year?
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,963
    edited December 2013
    I think @pharmjod's point is an interesting one and one that could be very valid. While they still may only stick to two $100 sets for this theme, they really had to get rid of the low price points sets.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2013

    I really like 10229. Stocked up on it with 3x VIP and 40082. Glad it disappeared under the radar.

    I have found that the best time to purchase a WV-themed set is the year before it's supposed to go EOL. For example, they had the cottage on sale for $70 at the Lego B&M store I visited post Christmas 2012...plus VIP points. The same was true ($50) for the WV Post Office post Christmas 2011 at Amazon.

    I did my WV Market shopping with the triple VIP points this year, but plan to see if those go on sale post Christmas 2013 as well. There are a lot of good Lego sets out there, but I am now a WV completest...for better or for worse.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2013
    pharmjod said:

    I won't be surprised if they bring it back since they now have the $99 price point.

    They'll bring it back because it's an exclusive and Lego no longer discounts exclusives. ;-)
    pharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2013
    Personally, I view #79111 and #7597 about the same. The #79111 set will probably do a little better because it's a more realistic and generally nicer looking set, but #7597 has more popular minifigs. I would expect them both to perform similarly post-EOL of TLR. It would be interesting to look into a crystal ball and see how they compare 5 years out...since both are extremely unlikely to ever be made again by Lego.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    #79111 has the benefit of being a more "adult" looking set, I think it will do better than the Toy Story train...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337


    I did my WV Market shopping with the triple VIP points this year, but plan to see if those go on sale post Christmas 2013 as well. There are a lot of good Lego sets out there, but I am now a WV completest...for better or for worse.

    10235 won't be on sale in the USA. It is on the no discount list. You did well to buy it with triple VIP, I will do the same for it pre BF 2014.

    I was surprised 10229 went so quickly at RRP.....TLG has certainly got alot better at inventory management.

  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^^Five years might be a big gamble, at least for me. Lego will probably release multiple trains during that time, and maybe one of them could serve as a replacement for the TLR train. You could probably by and resell several sets with the same $70 that you paid for the TLR train (during that five years) and make as much or more money, and be exposed to less risk. My opinion, of course.
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    #79111 should do pretty well, it has a lot of positives. It comes with tracks, can be easily motorized without compromising its looks, goes perfectly with the winter village sets, can be found at great sale prices. :-)
    This is a non-reseller's opinion. :-))
  • adventure_aladventure_al Scotland Member Posts: 243
    As investment pieces how do you guys feel Spider-mans daily bugle showdown will stand up? And the smaller superhero sets like ironman v mandarin and arctic batman?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,874

    As investment pieces how do you guys feel Spider-mans daily bugle showdown will stand up?

    OK, due to the appeal of the unique minifigs.


    And the smaller superhero sets like ironman v mandarin and arctic batman?

    1) Not great, due to the rubbish version of Mandarin. But saved by the Heart Breaker armour.

    2) OK, due to the appeal of the unique minifigs.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839

    As investment pieces how do you guys feel Spider-mans daily bugle showdown will stand up? And the smaller superhero sets like ironman v mandarin and arctic batman?

    1) meh.
    2) make sure to get an "Artic" version. You'll get oodles more! kidding. The figs are pretty cool.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Just noticed 6857 is listed as retired on [email protected] international sites.
    FollowsCloselymargot
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,777
    edited December 2013

    Just noticed 6857 is listed as retired on [email protected] international sites.

    Sold out at US [email protected] site as well.
    People were speculating that GE was on its way out and now the GE on US [email protected] is now on backorder...lol
    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 990
    edited December 2013


    ...
    If numbers don't lie, now is the time to stock up on your GE.
    ...

    I would not be surprised to see GE gone everywhere by this spring. The way I see it five modulars out at once is just too many. Too many for customers to choose from, too many to keep production rolling on, to much shelf space and too much to show on the back of a box:)

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,777
    TLR sets are starting to run out at LEGO: Colby City and Silver Mine are both showing as call for availability...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    Just noticed 6857 is listed as retired on [email protected] international sites.

    PTL! I've had several of these in boxes waiting to be EOL'd since the first day they were on sale. No brainer in my humble opinion...
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Battle of Hoth 75014 has gone to sold out on [email protected] Other than Mace Windu's Starfighter, I am hard pressed to name another SW set that sold out so quickly after introduction.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    Local Lego Store has all TLR on a 20% off sale. May have to get 1-2 79107 Commache Camp sets as that one never seemed to go on sale. Its kind of the low point of the series IMO but for completionists I guess that doesnt matter.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901

    TLR sets are starting to run out at LEGO: Colby City and Silver Mine are both showing as call for availability...

    Yeah, but I bet we see aggressive discounting post-Xmas for these. And the returns....How many uncles are going to buy a Stagecoach thinking how cool it is, only to have little Jimmy stop by Wally on 12-26 to trade for an A-Wing.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited December 2013
    walmart sold it for effective $9.99 . it was priced $19.99 with $10.00 gift card with net result of $9.99.

    Local Lego Store has all TLR on a 20% off sale. May have to get 1-2 79107 Commache Camp sets as that one never seemed to go on sale. Its kind of the low point of the series IMO but for completionists I guess that doesnt matter.

  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Just stopped by my brand store and picked up another WV cottage on the off chance they are not coming back. FWIW, the staff there was of the belief that when these were gone, they were gone.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    And TLR was all 30% off.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    ^^^ I just did the same thing, picked up a couple of what is apparently the last stock of WVC's. Also noticed all Lone Ranger sets discounted 30% off. Doc Ock Ambush which is on the way out was discounted to $14.99 so I pulled the trigger on a few of those as well. Part of me thinks the WVC will be back next year though, guess we'll see.
    FollowsClosely
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I used to think there was a method to the EOL madness where WV was concerned, but all bets are off after the Post Office unexpectedly went EOL. If I was a betting man, I would say that WVC will be back next year...but I've been wrong before!
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    fitzyfitz said:

    FB is retiring at the end of the year, along with the mini-modulars. All the other modulars are staying.

    B-wing & Winter Village Cottage are also on the way out.

    fitzyfitz said:

    There's plenty of other stuff but those are the four exclusives. The Lone Ranger and Galaxy Squad are both getting a short shelf-life and will also be going at the end of the year. Monster Fighters too, except for the Haunted House.

    Not too shabby fitz :)

  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    Hmmm, so should I buy all the Galactic Titans available to me for $65 each? I'm thinking no, but it's tempting. It's the largest space set ever offered (by piece count), but it is a funky bug theme.

    Edit: Nevermind, Earth Defense EQ, the closest comparison, seems like it was a bit of a dud.

    Yeah, 50% off seems like the wiser choice, pharmjod.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    I'm thinking I'll wait until I see them at 50% after Christmas. Even then I doubt I'll buy more than a couple
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I bought a few of the Titan sets... One to keep, cause I think it is pretty cool, the others, we'll see... probably not do anything special, but sometimes we get surprised...

    If there is a quick flip to be had, it will be soon, that is not a "keep for 2-3 years" set I think...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,777
    Will be interesting to see what LEGO does for end of year discounts. But if TLR is only at 25% off I'm guessing many will yawn due to the cyber Monday deals. I would not be surprised to see the City Garage and The Mine on sale though for City (if they are still around by then).

    I'm guessing the Galactic Titans will be this years #7066
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    i think although TLR movie was a flop.. its LEGO line did pretty well. especially #79106, #79107, #79108, #79109 and #79111 :) so the lone loser in this line up is #79110 the silver mine shootout...

    #79109 colby city was OOS online in target on the buy 1 get 1 30OFF.. it was on and off on the 20% off day... and none available around my area.


  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I think #79111 will do very well, $150 by next summer, it may be approaching $200 by next Christmas, on eBay anyway...

    It is a train, it comes with track, it is the poor man's Emerald Night, and unlike the Toy Story train, it looks "adult enough".

    This of course is void if TLG comes out with another cool train remotely like it before then.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102

    i think although TLR movie was a flop.. its LEGO line did pretty well. especially #79106, #79107, #79108, #79109 and #79111 :) so the lone loser in this line up is #79110 the silver mine shootout...

    silver mine is a nice set: is connectable to train layouts, has much playability, nice minifigs and rare pieces...

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    How many of you have picked up the silver mine shootout box?

    Personally, it feels like a lot is in the box, even at RRP, at the $45 or so it has been on sale for, it strikes me as a bargain.

    Maybe not for massive resale, but a nice set regardless.
Sign In or Register to comment.

Shopping at LEGO.com or Amazon?

Please use our links: LEGO.com Amazon

Recent discussions Categories Privacy Policy

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Brickset.com is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, the Amazon.com.ca, Inc. Associates Program and the Amazon EU Associates Programme, which are affiliate advertising programs designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.

As an Amazon Associate we earn from qualifying purchases.