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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I found a Helms Deep at B&N today. The box was kind of rough so I asked if they had any more in the back and they said no but that they could take an extra 10% off. Doesnt sound like much but I was able to stack the 25% friends and family coupon and my 10% member discount. Not too bad. I opened it up when I got home just to check and everything is there.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Helms Deep just dropped below 1,000 units on Amazon, down to 994 left now.

    So for the low, low price of only $129,170.30 you could buy them all! :)

    (assuming they'd sell them all, which they won't).

    Somewhat tempted to buy 2 more, but at full RRP, bleah...

    Make sure to add a free bear if you buy one.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^Try Barnes & Noble. BOGO50 currently online. I already have a few, but I'm not going to bother with any more (though I might regret this decision six months from now).
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Yikes, only down to 991, so only 3 sold in the past two hours.

    At that rate... :)
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    SuperTramp said:

    Was the batcave marked has "sold out" before or "waiting for stock"?

    I think it was just "temporarily OOS," but it's gone again from [email protected] and TRU.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    edited December 2013
    Massive "Retiring Soon" update...
    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Retiring-Soon
    madforLEGO
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp Member Posts: 1,021
    edited December 2013
    Why is the fire brigade not on the list?, also noticed the batcave isn't there either.
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    @SuperTramp - probably because it's already sold out and gone from Lego's website. It effectively has already retired.
  • odueckodueck Member Posts: 48
    Wow, looks like I need to get Robie House soon. Was wondering how long that one would be around for.
  • iluvmyelementiluvmyelement Member Posts: 52
    edited December 2013
    What are everyone's thoughts on the Technic helicopter (#9396)? Seems like a relatively short lifespan if it sells out soon now that it's on the soon to be retired list.
    FollowsClosely
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    ^ I love Technic, beside #42009 the beast, #9396 is a great build and model, much different that the usual trucks/4x4. I enjoyed #9396 much better than #42000. I don't think a Helicopter at that scale will be repeated soon.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited December 2013
    #9396 was £27 at tesco this year, I filled my car a few times and I bet many other resellers did the same.

    #9391, #9392 and #9393 already sell for 2xRRP.





  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    #10229 is on the retiring list. It seems it was not a one off with the post office and they have cut back the life cycle of Winter Village sets to just two holiday seasons.
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    edited December 2013
    #10221 not on there :(
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    stevemack said:

    #10221 not on there :(

    No, I think they are saving that for a May 4th promo.
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Good point!
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    If you look at what's on the list the majority of it has already gone in the UK.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    Kind of disappointed they truly are making the Winter Village sets just 2 seasons. I will have to make sure I get one each year when it comes out to avoid forgetting / missing out on it.
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    iluvmyelement said:

    What are everyone's thoughts on the Technic helicopter (#9396)? Seems like a relatively short
    lifespan if it sells out soon now that it's on the soon to be retired list.

    It will be interesting as it is unique but doesn't come with PF. Like @JamesJT said these were a bargain in the UK in January. If it had PF I would have bought more than I did. I'm going for double rrp in two years time. I'll sell mine once they hit £100.


  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,308
    pharmjod said:

    Kind of disappointed they truly are making the Winter Village sets just 2 seasons. I will have to make sure I get one each year when it comes out to avoid forgetting / missing out on it.

    Which is the Winter Village set that everyone keeps saying that they wish they had purchased but didn't? Is there one that is especially high in demand?
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    ^ #10222 Post Office
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    stevemack said:

    #10221 not on there :(

    The EOL list for the exclusives was already posted in this topic a few months ago. SSD will stay for at least 1 more year. B-Wing, Mini Mods, WVC and FB are the only exclusives retiring this year.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    Interesting list, because I think the #60016 was only out for a 6 months to a year wasn't it?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    FYI TRU also still has #60016 (gas tanker) in stock, and on sale.. from the RRP (not TRU inflated RRP) 17.99, limit 4, but if you reach the 100, you get the 25 off still
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    @margot I have managed to get one of each of them since the beginning, but they were easier to get when out for 3 seasons. Also, better chance to get them slightly discounted.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,308
    ^I'm trying to figure out whether I have that set or not. Going to have to wade through my sea of Lego and try to find it. I'm pretty sure I have all of the others.
    Thanks @Dad.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,308
    edited December 2013
    I thought everyone bought #60016 when it was $10. :-)

    (just found I have a #10222, sigh of relief... )
    SirKevbags
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    Anyone have a thought on #4429 Helicopter Rescue? Short release time and Walmart Exclusive?
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I'm sure I'll buy a few if they go 50% off after Christmas, but I won't be stocking up on it.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I like Helicopter Rescue as a poor man's hospital, because Lego does so few of those. But I don't like the $60 price. Wally has had a long-standing $47 price-point for those, which is ok. $40 would be ideal.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    I might too. I don't have any, but I think it is one of the better hospital sets in a while.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    I remember at the time of #4429 release, many people were grumbling about if being just a big helicopter with a mediocre hospital. Based on that general impression, I wouldn't think it would be much of a winner, but you never know.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    If it were 50% off of $47 I'd be interested in getting more than a few. At $30 though, assuming it is on clearance after Christmas I'm just not excited about it.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    So long, farewell, auf Wiedersehen, good night ... WV Cottage sold out on [email protected] today. Wally, Amazon, Target, FAO ... all sold out.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I really like 10229. Stocked up on it with 3x VIP and 40082. Glad it disappeared under the radar.
    FollowsClosely
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    doriansdad said:

    Glad it disappeared under the radar.

    Except for those of us who missed it to put in with our Christmas villages :o(
    Pitfall69
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    I'm surprised to see #75014 going so soon. It hasn't even been out a full year. I'm thankful TRU had the recent $30 offer (with free Christmas tree poly); I had planned to wait until May 4th for that one.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    It could still be at TRU for another year or more. Just because LEGO says retiring soon doesn't always mean its gone when TRU is involved.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    ^Entire TLR line on the list...we knew it was coming...Time to stock up for me.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    edited December 2013
    As far as TLG's expectations go TLR must have been a bit of a flop, they only got 8, maybe 9 months out of it plus some pretty big discounting. Just this weekend we had 40% + extra 10% off all TLR sets at one of our large department stores.

    Will be interesting to see how these go long term as there are some great sets in the theme.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I like TLR. I like TLR better on clearance after Xmas. Two years - clearances were packed. Last year it seemed like there wasn't much left for clearance because the store shelves were so empty. Kinda feel like this year has that same pattern.
  • ktmoktmo Member Posts: 73
    prevere said:

    ^I like Helicopter Rescue as a poor man's hospital, because Lego does so few of those. But I don't like the $60 price. Wally has had a long-standing $47 price-point for those, which is ok. $40 would be ideal.

    I picked one up on Black Friday with 30% off the $47, figuring that would be as good as it gets.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Basta said:

    As far as TLG's expectations go TLR must have been a bit of a flop, they only got 8, maybe 9 months out of it plus some pretty big discounting. Just this weekend we had 40% + extra 10% off all TLR sets at one of our large department stores.

    Will be interesting to see how these go long term as there are some great sets in the theme.

    Doesn't take a genius to figure out a boy is going to choose Batman/Avengers over TLR. See PoP for future direction.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited December 2013
    ^ It sounds to me like you're implying that it's not even worth trying out new stuff to see what sticks. By this same token, why even bother producing themes that aren't established, mainstream powerhouses?

    Also, 4 years ago, the idea of producing Avengers-based sets would have been ridiculed, and would likely have warmed the shelves right along side PoP.
    jasor
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    I won't pick up any TLR for less than half off, and even then I may leave a few to see if they'll go further. It's really about all I expect to find on clearance after Xmas. I don't think it will be as flatlined as PoP, but it's pretty much only going to sell at RRP (+/-) to newly reawakened AFOLs with a penchant for Western/Civil War era stuff. But it may benefit in the long run from such a brief shelf life.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    TheLoneTensor said:

    ^ It sounds to me like you're implying that it's not even worth trying out new stuff to see what sticks.

    I am not implying that at all. No doubt TLG knew they were going to take a bath on TLR but Disney is a very important client. Disney should have known they were going to take a bath but I think they were blinded by Depp and Pirates. I would have preferred the next wave of Alien Conquest but like I said it pays to keep Disney happy to keep their worthy IPs now doesn't it?

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited December 2013
    For knowing they were going to take a bath, they made some very decent sets. Perhaps that was motivation for them making nice sets, knowing they'd have to stand on their merit and not just be crappy showpieces that exist only to feature the minifigs. Given the lack of western stuff over the years, I think we'll see a really good return on these sets. I see sets like the Stagecoach, Constitution Train and Calvary doing much better than average in the aftermarket. The others are kinda iffy.
    vitreolum
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    If I had to invest in TLR theme (and I am very glad I don't) I would choose the Train. It is not going to be a Black Pearl or a Queen Anne but it is certainly the strongest of a very weak lineup in terms of future performance. We all have to cut our teeth on some shocking picks when we first start out and you could have picked worse.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,788
    edited December 2013
    samiam391 said:

    doriansdad said:

    Glad it disappeared under the radar.

    Except for those of us who missed it to put in with our Christmas villages :o(
    Well if you have a local LEGO store keep watch. Last year after Christmas, my local LEGO store got a load in from another store that could not clear them out. They were also on sale from 20-30% off. I picked up 3 like this. and another one this year for 3X VIP points.
    Not sure if that will occur again -as it is EOL and you may have panic/reseller buying, but just saying check LEGO stores once Christmas is over.
    I plan to do this again for the WVM after Christmas

    As for TLR, I'm not sure you are going to see that at LEGO.com for better than 25% off for most sets. I think many of the deals for Cyber Monday and BF may be the best buys for TLR stuff.
    I would not be surprised to see another Walmart dump of any TLR they have left in stores for 50% though.. Will need to watch stores around here.
    doriansdad said:

    If I had to invest in TLR theme (and I am very glad I don't) I would choose the Train. It is not going to be a Black Pearl or a Queen Anne but it is certainly the strongest of a very weak lineup in terms of future performance. We all have to cut our teeth on some shocking picks when we first start out and you could have picked worse.

    I got most of the TLR sets on sales prices and mostly for parts than anything else. The trains are probably going to be the decent sets, but since they were widely available for 30-40% off lately I'm not sure you are going to see a huge climb in price
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    The Calavalry is probably doing very well already since it's not in the retirement list. I don't see the stagecoach doing well, it's already priced too high and the minifigs are going to draw it down rather than up. But the train and quite possibly Colby city may do fine if purchased at a decent enough discount.
    TheLoneTensor
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