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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    margot said:

    The lol's are unnecessary.

    Some people don't know how to process others opinions without treating it as absurd.

  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Target is out of Fire Brigade stock, Lego hasn't moved it to retired, but it looks like it's really gone now. Toys R Us removed it from their website as well. Sort of makes me wish I had ordered a few more.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,979
    nkx1 said:

    ^Lol, nice. I think that if people (girls or otherwise) didn't like pink and purple Lego, they wouldn't buy it. It seems to me that people like the product, and have continually affirmed their like of the product by voting with their wallets. If you don't like it, don't buy it (like me; though, I'm a guy). Simple!

    Uh. I can guarantee that black or grey are not going to be anywhere on my son's favorite colors. He does not like those colors. That does not mean he does not want the Vampyre Castle for it's cool features, characters and playability. Buying the only Vampyre Castle available does not indicate whether or not he likes the colors. Buying the only pool, or bakery available does not indicate whether or not my girls like the colors they have. (I am not saying those colors may not sell better, but simply that one can not make a correlations between buying and liking the colors.)

    Plus, keep in mind there is only one girl line at this time. The other options out there often mean lines with minimal female minifigs, or cool exclusive sets with a good mix of characters, but which are expensive and have no discount available.

    Color is really the last items they look at.




  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Dougout said:

    Target is out of Fire Brigade stock, Lego hasn't moved it to retired, but it looks like it's really gone now. Toys R Us removed it from their website as well. Sort of makes me wish I had ordered a few more.

    I must admit that I did end up buying a few more from Target in the past week, just on the off chance it surprises us.

    At the very least, I'm unlikely to lose money on it, either I make $20 a copy in the next month, or it goes up and I hold them until next year and do better.

    Time will tell... at least I got the redcard 5% off, so my cost was $142.49 each. Better than nothing...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    graphite said:

    ^ I think it is more that the Girl focused play sets (stable, cafes, house etc) that girls are more likely to play with over fire stations and police stations etc are all colored in stereotypical pastel colors. The could make some of those same set venues but in more normal colors as well.

    Yes, they could, but then they wouldn't sell as well.

    I totally get the issues with stereotypes, but they usually exist for a reason (even if it isn't a very good one).

    Marketing over the past few decades as pounded pink/purple into girls and blue into boys. For better or worse.

    It isn't TLG's job to change that, it is their job to profit from it.
  • abenamouabenamou Member Posts: 12
    edited December 2013
    Dougout said:

    Target is out of Fire Brigade stock, Lego hasn't moved it to retired, but it looks like it's really gone now. Toys R Us removed it from their website as well. Sort of makes me wish I had ordered a few more.

    Any recommendations on what to do if you have a stash of the O197 run of these with potential missing bags?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Too late to contact Lego about it?
  • abenamouabenamou Member Posts: 12
    Whoops meant 39r1 - not sure if they are still sending parts packs? Could be a big issue for Amazon FBA sellers, too.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I still have my stash of 10197 from when they were giving out TC-14 with purchase in 2012. I am going to hold them for 2 more years and see where they end up.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I think FB will be a great long-term hold. Five years from now, it could go for $600+. Yet, a struggle in the meantime to get past $250.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Ahhh! The love/hate relationship that this thread has with FB makes me chuckle! The butt of all non-DS jokes, yet on its way out those of us (me included) who laughed at its long stay, still managed to pick a few up in secret....on the off chance.
    juggles7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited December 2013
    I mentioned this before a few months ago, but my father was in ny "Lego Vault" and asked me why iI had a stack of FB. I asked him if he wanted any and he said "No way, it probably is a set nobody wants." I just shrugged my shoulders.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Yup, the FB will be a classic on this forum, just like the MF, but for different reasons. The FB is iconic and probably will do well. I got my Dad into LEGOS and he picked out the FB to build. He really like the fire truck.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,145
    I just looked all over. High and low over the great internet. Nothing available for FB; closest is a BL new and sealed for 165 USD.
    FollowsClosely
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    you mean it's really gone... not really any big fanfare or countdown or anything..just... gone
    Thank goodness!
    I see the latest sales of them on Ebay are already over $200, woo hoo
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    How are we able to identify the bad FB 39r1 batch? Is this able to be identified without breaking the seals? If so, how?
  • LegoManiaccLegoManiacc Member Posts: 116
    You can see the batch number on a couple of the seals.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,230
    ebay has FB hitting 200, most with free shipping
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    Thanks LegoManiacc!!
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    Was the 39r1 batch the only bad FB batch, or were there others?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    FB is indeed now gone...

    Didn't last until Christmas, which will help a bit as some stocks are sold this season. Had it lasted until January, it would have been hurt more.

    Now the question becomes, how long will it sit at $200. Having it hit $200 this fast is not news, even when it was current it would sell for about that when it was out of stock most places and back ordered at [email protected] GE is currently hard to find anywhere but [email protected] and it is selling for about $200.

    When will it hit $250? $300? Those are the much more interesting numbers.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BTW, of course DS is still here... BOO!!! :)

    I'd like to see it go away for a year, then come back with a new, bigger, updated version.
    vitreolumFollowsCloselyjasor
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 970
    ^ That would be a nightmare scenario for me, because it would presumably be difficult to sell my used 10188 to help fund the new one.

    It's been mentioned already, but the minifigs are starting to look quite dated, and in 2014 we will have a brand new Chewbacca sitting next to the old DS one on shelves to emphasise that even more.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,929

    ^ That would be a nightmare scenario for me, because it would presumably be difficult to sell my used 10188 to help fund the new one.

    There often seems to be a window between the leaked announcement of a new one and the general public finding out that there is going to be a new one. That is the time to sell. When DS is no longer available, you know there is another one coming, but many people do not.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yep, this...

    Also, there remains demand for the older models, the first MF, the first AT-AT, etc. still sell and for reasonable prices, even with the new ones out.

    Two weeks ago, I sold a used complete 7676 for more than $200, even with the new rehash out and selling for under $100 almost everywhere.

    So I wouldn't sweat it all that much.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    It's been mentioned already, but the minifigs are starting to look quite dated, and in 2014 we will have a brand new Chewbacca sitting next to the old DS one on shelves to emphasise that even more.

    That was me, more than once...

    Look at the older Technic Mobile Crane, then look at the new Mk II version. Now just imagine how much better a Mk II version of DS could be.

    But give it a year between them to allow demand to build and people to miss the old one.

    And it isn't just the minifigs, the building instructions are dated now, compare them to the 2013 wave sets, the quality of the printed book is great, but the quality of the actual instructions themselves... not so great...

    For Pete's sake, the box still has Darth Vader on it, that came out almost 5 years ago! :)
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,030
    The price of an updated/re issued DS is something I would be curious about. I think it's fair to say if we were seeing it for the first time today it wouldn't be priced at a UK rrp of £275. Similar part count and minifig number of a new version would be maybe £350?

    Is there are market at that price? Would it sell in reasonable volume? Breaking the £300 barrier could be a psychological step to far for people.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    edited December 2013
    DS and SD sell in stores here for £375. I wouldn't bother too much with breaking the £300 barrier, it happens in several stores worldwide already.
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,030
    ^ I'm from the UK so used our rrp. Let's say the updated version was £500 in your market the principle remains the same. For many people there is a ceiling price regardless of how good a set is. Not many of those people here though ;-)
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    RRP here is the same as Europe, but due to the lack of a Lego store, retailers sell some key sets as they see fit. Most sell above rrp, some under and some well above rrp.

    It's irrelevant if retailers start selling the updated version for 500 around here, my point is if Romania can digest ds for that price (and they actually sell, not just warm the shelves), UK and other countries that actually have an economy would have no problem adjusting, it would take but a while. I don't think the ceiling is reached with DS.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,929
    ^ I'm not so sure. There will always be some people willing to spend £X on a set, but as X increases, the number willing to pay that decreases.

    You only need to stand next to the display of Ewok Village in a store to hear things like "that's so cool", "wow, can I get it?", "£200?", "no, you can have a smaller set".

    If it was split into four sets at £50 a pop, they would probably sell more in total, as they reach the price point that many people are willing to pay, but it removes a flagship type set from the range.
    drdavewatfordsidersdd
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    CCC said:

    There will always be some people willing to spend £X on a set, but as X increases, the number willing to pay that decreases.

    Obviously, but that's my point, we're not there yet. If you take AFOLS out of the equation, these are already priced for parents with money. If the aftermarket can sustain a £1000 set, so could stores. Because if they didn't sell, prices would drop. Of course, jumping there directly would be insanity, but a slow climb will not change much. And when they reach a wall, they can just turn back, it's not the end.
    CCC said:

    If it was split into four sets at £50 a pop, they would probably sell more in total, as they reach the price point that many people are willing to pay, but it removes a flagship type set from the range.

    Yes, but they don't need to do that, they have sets for that range. And really the "that's so cool" part would not be there if they did that.

    For 50 I would picture this + a speeder bike and two ewoks. Not bad but faaaaaar from the wow factor of the whole set.
    FollowsClosely
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    It is plausible that they could have done 4x £50 sets, each with a tree and some of the minifigs/ parts, which could then be connected together to make the whole village. [particularly given the technic bricks that are put together to make the platform in the canopy - although more difficult to make it as rigid]

    Questions are whether they'd sell more than 4x of those (which must be high for reason @CCC suggests); the impact it has on other total lego spend (meaningful - they would buy less of the other £50 sets); and the impact on the percentage of people who might have gone the extra £50 or £100 to stretch to a flagship set who might only have spent £100-150 say on Lego otherwise (and bought another product). How many kids - and adults - would be lucky enough to get all four sets?

    And of course for this thread, how much they would resell at!?
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,068
    I think splitting a big set up into small parts would be silly. Would cost 4x packaging and shelf space, but more importantly, would completely lack the 'Holy crap that is awesome, I must have it!' aura the big sets have. The 'lust' thread hits on this point quite well, lots of us poured over the Lego catalogs as kids dreaming of the huge sets our parents couldn't/wouldn't afford and instead got 'small spaceship' with our pocket money etc. And those who can afford the big stuff love it for the fact it is massive and takes 6-8 hours to build.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Also, one would hope that the price per piece is less on larger sets due to gained efficiencies in the mfg process (one manual, one box, etc.). Does that hold true?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I don't know if the "holy crap that is awesome" would be completely gone. I remember things like the Transformers Devestator, Superion, Defensor, Menasor, Bruticus etc. were sets that gave a big "holy crap" moment when you got them together from their individual robots for the first time. It was pretty equal to seeing something massive like Metroplex and Trypticon for the first time.

    I think the modular approach would have been well-receieved, and certainly more kids would have gotten exposure to it. I can't see many kids getting the big village for xmas (unless it's actually Dad getting it for himself).
    jasor
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,929

    I think splitting a big set up into small parts would be silly. Would cost 4x packaging and shelf space, but more importantly, would completely lack the 'Holy crap that is awesome, I must have it!' aura the big sets have. The 'lust' thread hits on this point quite well, lots of us poured over the Lego catalogs as kids dreaming of the huge sets our parents couldn't/wouldn't afford and instead got 'small spaceship' with our pocket money etc. And those who can afford the big stuff love it for the fact it is massive and takes 6-8 hours to build.

    I agree for all those reasons. It does loose the impact. But I still reckon overall they'd sell more of that set.

    Also lego have tried it already. Jabba's Palace and Rancor could easily have been a single set. I guess they were testing the waters with that pairing.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    edited December 2013
    ^^^ You do get better value, just compare Ewok Village with 2x Jabba's Palace, you get almost 2x more parts and about the same number of minifigs. And you are left with £40 to buy a smaller set.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    edited December 2013
    CCC said:

    Also lego have tried it already. Jabba's Palace and Rancor could easily have been a single set. I guess they were testing the waters with that pairing.

    This was done with the older palace, that had two extra sets as well.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,145
    Only reason I would buy Ewok is for the figs and the tree design. I've said this in a previous thread. Although; the more I think about it and contemplate A. What $250 USD really IS and B. What $250 USD BUYS these days, both LEGO and non; then it really makes you wonder. Completely off topic, but for $400 USD I just put studded snow tires on my vehicle. I live in a state, Maine, that borders Canada and those things are truly worth their weight in gold, for me, that was a HUGE investment. Ain't no discontinued set or otherwise that would have gotten me to done different!!
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    The problem with the Rancor is that, regardless of it being in a separate box, it's not a standalone set, but rather an add-on. If it had a more substantial dungeon area (especially to support the tower from JP), then it would have made more sense as a separate entity. As it is, You either got JP, JP+Rancor or you were disappointed.
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    I think this would be kind of cool. Another way they could do it to appease both sides is sell a large kit with all of them or sub-kits with each one individually.

    That way, if kids are saving up and can only afford $50, for example, they might be able to buy two of the subsets, where they wouldn't be able to buy the larger complete set... at least not yet!

    LEGO wins either way - they're selling product.

    Plus, they could sell the 4 individuals for $25 or whatever, and then sell the 4-pack for $90, giving a little discount on the complete one, for example.

    Brent
    cloaked7
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310

    I live in a state, Maine,

    Jealous, I miss New England.

    FollowsCloselyDougout
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,674
    Would have been nice to have the same type of #9474 / #9471 Combo, with #10236 Ewok Village and then a a smaller set with 1 tree, a few ewoks, troppers and rebels. Too bad #9489 and #7956 are EOL, I think they could have done really well.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,365
    ^and #8038
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    If the exclusive playsets were more "modular" with other mainstream sets, their appeal would be that much more.

    Dont get me on my Hoth crusade again.
    BTHodgeman
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    @jasor - I agree completely.
    jasor
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 1,009
    vitreolum said:

    ^^^ You do get better value, just compare Ewok Village with 2x Jabba's Palace, you get almost 2x more parts and about the same number of minifigs. And you are left with £40 to buy a smaller set.

    I agree, larger sets in general seem far better value than the smaller ones. However, 9516 was ridiculously priced, and it's been readily available in the UK at around 35% off which is closer to what it should have been! I'm waiting for a reasonable sale on the EV and I'll probably get a couple, I just hope that they do the dish and platform as well.....

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,230
    edited December 2013
    Apparently one reason why 41999's are going down is TRU on eBay is occasionally listing them for 199.99 with free shipping. Apparently they sold 4 yesterday.
    Before everyone hits eBay, TRU on eBay does not have anymore in stock at this time
  • legofanfromleedslegofanfromleeds legoland...England Member Posts: 399
    Sorry not quite the correct thread but ill give it a go... is the funhouse #6857 just out of stock everywhere rather than its been retired and gone for good ? Im uk based by the way
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