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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • GoldfreekGoldfreek USA, California, SacramentoMember Posts: 96
    Hardrada said:

    I've heard rumours that the new train sets are coming in summer 2014. (A blue freight train, a white passenger train and a big modern station.) If these rumours are true then I'm sure the current line-up will retire sometime around when the new trains hit the market.

    I really hope that this is true. 2 new trains and a nice station would be awesome.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    The trains that did it for me was back getting out of my dark ages, #4561 and #4565 then it kinda snowballed from there #3225 #2126 #4553 #4533 #4541 #4556 #4557.. Then I kinda blacked out, and when I came too I had all of the 9v stuff and most of the 4.5 and 12v that had minifigures and up to the current RF/RC trains
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Hardrada said:

    I've heard rumours that the new train sets are coming in summer 2014. (A blue freight train, a white passenger train and a big modern station.) If these rumours are true then I'm sure the current line-up will retire sometime around when the new trains hit the market.

    Blue freight train as in another Maersk freight train?
    Dannyspen
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    Highly unlikely. This would be the standard City freight train set. So I'm guessing it's your usual freight train, only the loco would be blue this time.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Opinions on #3185? My gut (when it's not being pummeled with pecan pie) is telling me it has another year left. Does anybody have anything more reliable than gut?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited December 2013
    Hardrada said:

    Highly unlikely. This would be the standard City freight train set. So I'm guessing it's your usual freight train, only the loco would be blue this time.

    Not Maersk likely, but it would be nice to have a blue frieght loco for a change. Has not been one (non licensed) since #7760
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,371
    Dark blue with blue or light blue accents would look really good for a locomotive. But it will probably be a bright color since that is what most System trains seem to be.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    How is this holiday season doing for sellers? I know legofantexas has said it was really picking up, but I'm not seeing it. I don't sell on amazon, only ebay, but not seeing much action on the $200-$500 stuff....
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    @jcb193 what sets are you trying to sell? If you have some popular sets at good prices and good search rankings moving them should not be too difficult.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    jcb193 said:

    How is this holiday season doing for sellers? I know legofantexas has said it was really picking up, but I'm not seeing it. I don't sell on amazon, only ebay, but not seeing much action on the $200-$500 stuff....

    I'm not either, the $200+ stuff isn't selling well at all. Diagon Alley is just sitting, Imperial Shuttle is just sitting, etc.

    Even the $100 items aren't moving all that fast, but I have a stack of orders for things under $50...

    I think people downsized this year, last year was better for expensive stuff...

    Sales were gangbusters until Monday evening, then it fell off a cliff again...

    Today sales picked back up, but that is largely because I lowered prices on a lot of stuff that wasn't selling, on a Saturday, that tends to bring in sales, for a few hours at least.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    ^ I'm trying to understand these numbers and day references you are tossing out, but I'm missing the volume indicator, and I'm also trying to peer through the vague references. Are you selling 10 a day and for example, and Monday evening you sold 2 when it "fell off a cliff?" What does "isn't selling well at all" mean really? What is a "stack of orders" really? What does "gangbusters" mean.

    Normally I wouldn't ask these kinds of details, because they are private to most sellers, but you do put yourself out there to be asked such things, so there it is.

    (Btw, you did the line break thing, again. Paragraphs are allowed to have more than one sentence, hehe).
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Fixed priced listings.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    edited December 2013

    @jcb193 what sets are you trying to sell? If you have some popular sets at good prices and good search rankings moving them should not be too difficult.

    Am selling mostly SW and HP (usual suspect, DDS, Death Star, Diagon, IS, 41999, FB, GE, PS, TH, etc etc). Some creator sets too. The basics. Was seeing a nice action (especially from overseas) in the fall in the $200-$500 range, but haven't seen much action at all for xmas. Even bundled sets are sitting.

  • thenosthenos Twin Cities, MNMember Posts: 417
    There have been some good retail sales though. That's something.

    Can I ask what's selling best? I'm not a reseller, just curious.
  • ShpadoinkleShpadoinkle 13 hours West of BillundMember Posts: 420
    I think the deep discounts at the retail outlets are killing reselling this year. I didn't put up a lot for sale last year but what I did went very quickly and for a great price. This year looking at the prices things are going for I'm not even going to bother listing anything on eBay.

    I did list a few sets on CL and have had zero interest. Everything from the retailers is just so cheap!
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    thenos said:

    There have been some good retail sales though. That's something.

    Can I ask what's selling best? I'm not a reseller, just curious.

    Black Pearl and Queen Anne's Revenge
    Pitfall69
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^Yep, I've got mine at the high end because I don't care if they sell this year or not. Almost every Lego theme has been steeply discounted in the past two weeks and everybody's just about tapped dry.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    Seconding the death of Craigslist this year. Sold more in August than I did in Nov/Dec on CL. Maybe the week before xmas CL will pop?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    ^ I'm trying to understand these numbers and day references you are tossing out, but I'm missing the volume indicator, and I'm also trying to peer through the vague references.

    They are vague on purpose... :)

    Are you selling 10 a day and for example, and Monday evening you sold 2 when it "fell off a cliff?"

    On a percentage basis, sales on Tuesday were about 70% below Monday. It didn't really recover until today.

    What does "isn't selling well at all" mean really?

    IS and DA are great sets, they should be doing better than they are. It is possible that the market for $300+ sets is just really bad this year, it is possible that too many resellers have both in stock with too much depth, and it is possible that there have been so many sales on current sets that people are starting to skip the retired sets completely.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    Sales should have taken off after Black Friday as people scramble to get Christmas gifts. Getting somewhat anxious trying to unload my stuff and jump off the reselling wagon.
    juggles7
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    Over the past few weeks, I've unloaded a bunch of sets, some at a fairly meager profit just to get rid of them. I'm also trying to get out of reselling for the most part, with the exception of a few sets here and there whenever I see an opportunity. I was never a big time reseller, but did have a decent inventory at one point. When I want to sell a set quickly, I always try to ensure my listing is among the lowest priced listings on ebay. Otherwise, the sets pretty much just sit there (obviously).

    On a related note, I can't believe how much 41999 has sunken in value! They keep going lower. As of this moment, there's one listed at $329. Next lowest is $343.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    sidersdd said:

    thenos said:

    There have been some good retail sales though. That's something.

    Can I ask what's selling best? I'm not a reseller, just curious.

    Black Pearl and Queen Anne's Revenge
    Also #10199 Winter Toy Shop.
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    I have found after Christmas it seems to pick up, likely because that is when companies give bonuses out and also people get holiday money as gifts and what not. Before Christmas, I'm guessing people are likely buying for others and not going to spend a lot this year to do it, never mind Amazon and Walmarts' sales taking a lot of that money away.
    It will be interesting to see prices for sets after Christmas where their may be a bit more disposable income.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890


    IS and DA are great sets, they should be doing better than they are. It is possible that the market for $300+ sets is just really bad this year, it is possible that too many resellers have both in stock with too much depth, and it is possible that there have been so many sales on current sets that people are starting to skip the retired sets completely.

    QA and Maersk train are selling easy at close to $300, and have had no problems offloading Hogwarts Castle around $335...

  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    Bandit said:


    QA and Maersk train are selling easy at close to $300

    Is that on Amazon?
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I think any reseller lucky enough to get their hands on an Architecture Studio would agree it has been the Christmas winner. I have had no problem unloading them. It will cross over the 300 point sometime next week.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    sidersdd said:

    Bandit said:


    QA and Maersk train are selling easy at close to $300

    Is that on Amazon?
    Yessir!
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited December 2013
    Maersk train is going for ±$235 on ebay in the U.S. currently. I'm unsure why it's going for close to $300 (unless one chooses to intentionally pay more than necessary).

    Queen Anne's Revenge is going for ±$260 currently on ebay.
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    edited December 2013
    .... You realize Monday was cyber Monday, the busiest online shopping day of the year, right? As much as I hate the term and as much as all of the sales on that Monday stink, people still spend a ton of money on that day. I continue to be amazed the advertizes got the term to stick.

    If your sales last Monday didn't go up something was wrong.
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 423
    My sales over the last week have almost equalled the previous month. As some have mentioned, most of my sales are in the £40-£60 range.
    The winner for me was Friends Dolphin Cruiser. Picked up a load at half price and have flipped them for full retail.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    I have sold very little this year compared to last. The only things I have been able to sell are items were the prices have been slashed. In previous years prices would go up at the end of Nov-xmas. This year they have been lowered to try and beat competition. Its not just lego though. Sales of next gen consoles have been pretty slow as well in the aftermarket which is unusual. People just dont have the spare cash. I dont blame them either, times are hard still.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Bearing in mind that I have a much smaller LEGO inventory than a lot of you guys and that my goals with that inventory are probably a bit more conservative (double my initial investment after fees)... I have to say, this has been the easiest year for me to offload stuff in a long while. Aside from a couple of Knight Bus sets and an Imperial Shuttle, I actually don't have anything left from last year.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ What have you been offloading this year that you have doubled your investment on? I thought Knights Bus would have been guaranteed, it's fetching a good price. I haven't even attempted to sell anything this year, far too much competition, far too many sets keeping the price down. All the sets I was going to offload were all fetching 25% or so more around September time. I'm talking #4184, #4195, #10194, #8043, #10210 etc. Even #4842 has taken a hit. It will be interesting to see what happens in the first half of 2014. I think the new resellers in the game may keep the market flooded and the price down whilst they try to bailout on what they thought was a 'sure thing'

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Pitfall69 said:

    I have to tell ya. Get out your Black Pearls because I think it is a great time to sell them.

    sidersdd said:

    thenos said:

    There have been some good retail sales though. That's something.

    Can I ask what's selling best? I'm not a reseller, just curious.

    Black Pearl and Queen Anne's Revenge
    Really? :)

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    nkx1 said:

    On a related note, I can't believe how much 41999 has sunken in value! They keep going lower. As of this moment, there's one listed at $329. Next lowest is $343.

    Please let me know when #10179 hits that price point. I would like to pick one up...

    ;-)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I've put a few "best offers" in on eBay at $300 for $41999. At that price, I'll build one.

    If anyone wants to sell me one at that price and skip the fees, PM me...
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Dad said:

    ^ What have you been offloading this year that you have doubled your investment on? I thought Knights Bus would have been guaranteed, it's fetching a good price. I haven't even attempted to sell anything this year, far too much competition, far too many sets keeping the price down. All the sets I was going to offload were all fetching 25% or so more around September time. I'm talking #4184, #4195, #10194, #8043, #10210 etc. Even #4842 has taken a hit. It will be interesting to see what happens in the first half of 2014. I think the new resellers in the game may keep the market flooded and the price down whilst they try to bailout on what they thought was a 'sure thing'

    My Black Pearls and QARs were all gone over the summer, so I haven't paid close attention to the prices on those. In general, though, Christmas isn't a great time for 'best price' so much as volume selling, unless you're selling something more recently retired. I still think you can double investment easily enough with smart buying, but if you're looking for triple your money, or even double RRP, I don't usually feel like Christmas is the best time for that.

    The other sets I had from last year were Diagon Alley, Hogwarts Castle and Hogwarts from HP, and then the Post Office and 2012 Holiday Set. I also picked up a couple of Shuttle Expeditions after reading @mathew's and other forum members' thoughts on it, and it's also done very well versus its sale price.

    The issue I'm having with the Knight Bus is that I paid close to RRP to begin with (whereas I got the others at 20-50% off), so I need it to go for about $66 before fees. Of course, that set is great for purple bricks, so I wouldn't be opposed to using them for parts and selling the minifigs.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ It's exactly this that highlights the different UK and US markets. Knight's Bus is doing £75 all day long and it was £30 rrp in the UK. I remember being stood in front of 25 of them at £20 each this time last year thinking should I ??. Bad decision!! I did great on the BP's last year but this year retired sets haven't disappeared as fast as more retailers are selling a wider range. Up until 2012 once most sets retired they were gone within 24 hours whereas now you still have chance to get them.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    Seems like a good time to be selling Friends' sets. Sold out everywhere... My TRU had a few small sets and that was it. Same thing online.

  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,117
    I was at Barnes and Noble today looking to see if there was anything good to spend my 25% off coupon and noticed that had about 30 Minecraft sets. So I figured why not and got one. I looked on ebay and saw that they are still going in the $50-60 range. I thought they were pretty well stocked everywhere so why are they still selling for so much?

  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    edited December 2013
    I was also surprised by minecraft sets selling so well.

    Was anyone able to get the 25% of bn coupon to stack with $10 off $30 toy coupon using MasterCard? They said I had to choose one or the other implying that two coupons can't stack. They seemed to scan both to try but it is hard to tell what they are seeing on their screen.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    margot said:

    Seems like a good time to be selling Friends' sets. Sold out everywhere... My TRU had a few small sets and that was it. Same thing online.

    This was even more true last year, however I expected TLG to catch up to Friends demand this year, given how completely out of stock they were last year.

    They did, to an extent, a lot of Friends is out of stock, but not everything, and the aftermarket supply is much better. The prices last year were higher over RRP than this year, in many cases, double RRP. This year? 25%-50% over RRP, before fees and shipping.

    If purchased for 25% below RRP, it isn't a bad deal, but not really worthwhile if purchased during the year at RRP.

    Given this year, I expect TLG will increase Friends production even more next year, so I don't expect a third time being the charm. :)
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    It just makes me really happy to see the Friends line doing well. I really want LEGO to tell all the whiners to suck it :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Yea, there were a bunch of naysayers two years ago when Friends launched, clearly has it done very, very well.
    FollowsClosely
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    pharmjod said:

    I really want LEGO to tell all the whiners to suck it :)

    There's no accounting for taste. I think Friends has a lot of fun sets, but the colors make me want to vomit. Glad that TLG is doing well. Not so glad that girls are stuck in the pink/purple princess mode.

    mnbvc
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    pharmjod said:

    It just makes me really happy to see the Friends line doing well. I really want LEGO to tell all the whiners to suck it :)

    I'm just glad my niece likes it. Makes birthdays and Xmas a hell of a lot easier on me.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    margot said:

    Not so glad that girls are stuck in the pink/purple princess mode.

    Why would girls be "stuck" in pink/purple princess mode? I don't think Lego prohibits them from buying pirate, castle or Star Wars sets. Or are you saying girls should not even have the pink/purple princess option at all?

    TrenthFenrisAkashi
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,263
    ^ I think it is more that the Girl focused play sets (stable, cafes, house etc) that girls are more likely to play with over fire stations and police stations etc are all colored in stereotypical pastel colors. The could make some of those same set venues but in more normal colors as well.
    margot
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Lol. I guess Lego has it all wrong then. Someone should come out with their own line of building toys in colors other than pink and purple. They could make a fortune off Lego's blunder.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^Lol, nice. I think that if people (girls or otherwise) didn't like pink and purple Lego, they wouldn't buy it. It seems to me that people like the product, and have continually affirmed their like of the product by voting with their wallets. If you don't like it, don't buy it (like me; though, I'm a guy). Simple!
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