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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    VC has gone, but there is still stock about I think
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 502
    ^ Yes TRU has VC at BOGO50% right now; $75 each if you buy two
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    edited December 2013
    Which set is VC?
    Never mind. Vampyre Castle..
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    I'm wondering post-Amazon fire sales, what "quality" sets will be available via clearance post-Xmas at the big boxes.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    edited December 2013
    I never liked FB, honestly. It didnt appeal to me until I bought the Mini Modulars, built the mini FB and started looking at reviews for the big one. I let FB languish in my Cart over several sites for many many many months.

    As soon as I realized it was actually EOL'ing, I got remorseful for my street, and got it as a Christmas present with the Christmas offer/giftcard blah blah blah.

    There are silly people like me all over the place that didnt. I trust this. I almost succumbed to the "wiffle waffle" myself. There's a demand for FB. Otherwise, it wouldnt sell the last few hundred copies in days.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Dougout said:

    Target has raised the price of their remaining stock of FBs to $209. They could have quite a bit of stock left if they planned for retirement, I doubt other places will get more shipments now. GE will probably go at the beginning of next year.

    Funny. Lego hates resellers, yet when one of their major retailers takes advantage of an inflated after market, that seems to be acceptable......WHAT ABOUT LITTLE TIMMY?????
    FollowsCloselyDougout
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 976
    Any thoughts about EOL for #10188 & #10221? Despite the limitations of the SSD I'd like to grab another one before they dissapear, and the DS is almost tempting as a parts pack.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    I'd be surprised it Target was getting into the resellers game. A multi-billion dollar company, doesn't have much incentive to sit on a few hundred old lego sets to net gain a few thousand dollars. Not saying it's not happening, just saying I don't think it's a harbinger of the future. They might just know to keep them though xmas. But big box retailers main mantra is to turn goods, not invest in them. They must just see they are the only ones with stock.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Not sure if I would consider it 'reselling'. They simply mark some sets above RRP because they are popular.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    btw, FB is back in stock @ target for $209.99 LOL and they will let you buy 6 of them in one order :)

    :)

    Yea, but you'd be nuts to buy multiples for resale now, at that price...

    Sadly, it also means that they'll have stock for longer, it will hold down the overall price rise for awhile.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Lobot said:

    Any thoughts about EOL for #10188 & #10221? Despite the limitations of the SSD I'd like to grab another one before they dissapear, and the DS is almost tempting as a parts pack.

    #10221 - SSD is supposed to go this year, but it might be extended to May 4th next year and they might turn it into a retirement event for that, much like B-Wing was this year (yet didn't quite go away then either).

    Amazon still has over a thousand SSDs in stock, they are on the shelf at my local LEGO store, and everyone else seems to have it.

    DS continues to outsell SSD by 5 to 1, I see this both locally and online, looking at Amazon's sales numbers. SSD is a set that I'll have maybe 4 of when it retires, but that is it. Those I'll stick in the closet at home and forget about for 3-4 years, by which point hopefully it is close to $1,000. We shall see.

    #10188 - DS? It isn't going this year, my info says it is now scheduled for retirement Christmas 2014, but if it keeps selling, nothing stops TLG from continuing to sell it.

    That being said, if you look at the minifigs and instructions, it now is really starting to look dated, it probably should get retired, with an update to a Mark II version a year later, bigger and better, for $499.

    So, if that happens, the resale options on that set will be quite limited. I have 4 left myself, sold most of them the past 6 months, tired of having money stuck in something I can't sell. :(
    FollowsCloselyLobot
  • BlueMoonUSABlueMoonUSA Member Posts: 116
    In the same way that LEGO has put restrictions on retailers discounting their exclusives, it would be great if they also restricted them from inflating the MSRP. As mentioned, it's tantamount to reselling...something which I had thought they were trying to clamp down on.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    jcb193 said:

    But big box retailers main mantra is to turn goods, not invest in them.

    While you are correct, it is also true that big box retailers have crap for profit margins.

    Why isn't it possible for them to try something new?

    It isn't just LEGO they could do it with. Given the cheapness of warehouse space out in nowhereville, what stops them from keeping extra LEGO, American Girl, Hot Wheels, and 20 other toys that have collectors markets?

    Yes, FB by itself is chump change, but what if they kept a thousand copies of every LEGO set past EOL to sell 25% higher than RRP? What if they did that for 20 different toy lines?

    Even if it takes an extra year or two to sell them, the higher RRP makes for a heck of a retail profit margin.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    I have a feeling that Target isnt "inflating" FB on purpose, but being run afoul by it's pricematch algorithm. They may be inflating the price, but I just dont see it.
    FollowsCloselyjuggles7
  • ShpadoinkleShpadoinkle 13 hours West of BillundMember Posts: 420
    If a lot of people can do this reselling thing in our spare time and turn clear profits (or at least make enough to fund our hobby), then one target employee with corporate approval could easily do the same thing with the stock they already have on hand.

    In my day job we did a custom run of a highly desirable product needed for a specific event last September. We received the shipment from the manufacturer on October 1st of last year, by February 1st we were able to stop offering a wholesale price, and May 1st we increased the price per unit 10%. Sold out May 24th. I could see this easily working on a grander scale with a bare minimum of effort from a company like Target.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I'm not insinuating that Target is entering the reseller market. I am pointing out that the market for FB changed, they recognized that and raised the price above the "normal" RRP, or even TRU levels. Lego has chastised resellers as a group over the past months because they believe that this sort of profit taking with their product diminished brand value somehow....I just find it ironic that they seem to tolerate this from Target....or at least appear to tolerate it.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Well, this just happened, so if there was a response from Lego, I doubt it would happen immediately, and then there's Target. Just because a supplier says jump, they don't immediately ask "how high?"

    It will be fascinating to see how this plays out. If this is indeed a major retailer testing out the aftermarket waters (as opposed to being a glitch or something), we're in for some interesting times.
  • fizicystfizicyst Member Posts: 72
    I am with @jasor on this one. It is a result of Target.com's pricematch program which is supposed to lower the prices to match Walmart.com and Amazon.com. When Amazon.com sells out and puts a 3rd party seller up there the program thinks Amazon has raised their price and adjusts to match.
    juggles7
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited December 2013
    ^ I'm not saying it's not the case, but pretty poor programming if it is. Assuming it wasn't done on purpose!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    #6468 Two face chase set is listed as call for availability at [email protected]
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102

    Doubt the GE is now going eol since Lego have changed the quantity limit from 5 to 99 this morning.

    But not only for GE. 99 items are also chooseable for PS, TH and PC.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ And the truth is, if you try and order 99, they are unlikely to actually ship that many.

    Probably cancel the orders as being for a "reseller".
  • LegoManiaccLegoManiacc Member Posts: 116
    I got 99 modulars, but they ain't shipped 1
    DiggydoesTncatsfanpharmjodgivmellisBumblepantsTheBrickLaddjasorHarryPotterLover
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    edited December 2013
    A local Target near me in Portland, OR has EoL'd sets marked up about 15-20 %. This is in store, not online. I was very surprised to see it. Its possible its the same pricing algorithm spitting out price tags...but seems less likely than online.
    FollowsClosely
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Maybe Target is just jealous of TRU's auspicious business model...
    cloaked7Kanohi
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    Just found a 41999 in my lego store the other night at normal price. Are they creeping back in, or was this a fluke return?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    ^Maybe Target is just jealous of TRU's auspicious business model...

    ROTFL :-)

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    jcb193 said:

    Just found a 41999 in my lego store the other night at normal price. Are they creeping back in, or was this a fluke return?

    Always possible it's a return.

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^^^ Yeah, just a return. I used to get lucky with those when I "used to" shop at Lego Stores. This is an especially good time of year to find them , however.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    ^Got my only Maersk train like that.
    FollowsClosely
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    ^Got my second one like that after EOL, with the discount as well. I forgot 10% or 20% off at the time. ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    Mentioning the Maersk Train made me wonder when the current Passenger and Cargo train will EOL? Was this question answered recently? I didn't get a chance to snag either of them at 30% off, but I did manage to get the Cargo train at 25%. Any thoughts?
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    I also got my first 10178 as a parts pact back in 2010. Some one returned an almost complete model to the store claiming it was too difficult. The store can not sell as a set so they treated this as 3 grab bags and they throw in the box and manuals. Of course most of the minifigures were missing and I have to bricklink them.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^Hopefully soon, I don't see them being very sought after by adult collectors. The Cargo Train should increase a bit like the Red Cargo Train did, maybe $270 a year after retirement. The passenger train may do a bit better, but I wouldn't think much. I have one of each for myself, but I haven't tried getting any more to save.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    edited December 2013
    So it looks like the SW Advent Calendar was under-produced this year. Sold out quickly. SW is now entering the $80-90 range. Lego keeps missing the sweet spot on this one.

    *2011 - Widely overproduced and available for under $20 on clearance (and for $5 if you had a hand in the iconic TRU Easter pricing snafu).
    *2012 - Initially sold for a ridiculous $60, quickly discounted to $40, and still available.
    *2013 - Sold out in mid-Nov.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,509
    ^well as far as using it for Advent this season it sold out at just the right time. Surprising it is selling for so much when there isn't much desirable in it apart from a few minifigures
  • JeffHJeffH Member Posts: 173
    ^That is because the Lucas tax on the figs.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,119
    edited December 2013
    I was just at my local TRU picking up an order and saw a stack of the Star Wars 2013 advent calanders but the website says its sold out in stores and wont let me add it to my shopping cart.I missed the bus on these thinking I would find them on clearance after Christmas. I shudder at the thought of going back into that jungle at TRU to try and get a price match. Its a mad house in there.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    edited December 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    Mentioning the Maersk Train made me wonder when the current Passenger and Cargo train will EOL? Was this question answered recently? I didn't get a chance to snag either of them at 30% off, but I did manage to get the Cargo train at 25%. Any thoughts?


    My guess is neither anytime soon. The station I could see going but not either train.
    In the past, LEGO has always had a replacement train for sale before the other sell out. Then again LEGO is not itself lately so who knows.
    I see people selling the cargo train parted out by cars or vehicles and the crane and making more than the RRP. So I can see people still buying these and to be honest the cargo train is a nice set, just a bit pricey IMO.

    I think LEGO typically keeps the trains around for longer, but I would say the tell tale sign is when new ones are released.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,509
    JeffH said:

    ^That is because the Lucas tax on the figs.

    Right, I meant the aftermarket figures of $80-90 though.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Pitfall69 said:

    Mentioning the Maersk Train made me wonder when the current Passenger and Cargo train will EOL? Was this question answered recently? I didn't get a chance to snag either of them at 30% off, but I did manage to get the Cargo train at 25%. Any thoughts?

    Any thoughts? I like trains! Chugga chugga chugga

  • ShpadoinkleShpadoinkle 13 hours West of BillundMember Posts: 420
    I don't know about anyone else, but the Amazon cyber Monday sale price on the cargo train opened pandora's box for me, and now I have to get them all! I loved my 9v cargo train as a kid, and Lego trains have that added bonus of being easy to alter and add to. I have to believe that there is no better guarantee of increased value than a train (Toy Story not withstanding.)
    Pitfall69madforLEGO
  • ChompersChompers Member Posts: 658
    2013 SW Advent calendars may be sold out in the US but there are plenty in the UK and some retailers have reduced them by 50%
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    cloaked7 said:

    Any thoughts? I like trains! Chugga chugga chugga

    Our family is really getting into the trains...and trying some MOCs. I would like to see a new classic train to follow the EN, which was really well done by the way. I tend to load up on trains...can't help it...like a moth to a flame (or a flame to my savings account...whatever).
    LegoManiacc
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    I've heard rumours that the new train sets are coming in summer 2014. (A blue freight train, a white passenger train and a big modern station.) If these rumours are true then I'm sure the current line-up will retire sometime around when the new trains hit the market.
    madforLEGOFarmer_John
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    And where, pray tell, did you hear these rumors?
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    ^^I read the same thing. It was over on eurobricks.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,129
    I read something over there too about a more modern station. Perhaps this has weight.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Yup, I really like the trains. EN was what did it for me. I haven't seen all of the LEGO trains first hand. Especially #10020 and #10133 which look awesome in photos. But, for those I've seen the EN is the best, by far. It looked so good it didn't look like a LEGO set. After seeing the EN I looked into past LEGO trains, and it looked like the only real sets they made before the EN were the two I mentioned above. I did find a #10183 and got it at a good price years ago. And, since then have bought multiples of most every LEGO train out since. I really like the industrial trains, not so much the passenger ones (except for EN). I would love to see more along the line of #10020 and #10133, work horses of the industry. Also, I noticed that LEGO used to have separate sets of individual cars. I would love to see that return. You know, sort of like SW Battle Packs. Oh man, that would be awesome.

    Only problem, it takes a lot of room to have multiple train tracks. I would need a train room in addition to my LEGO room (which I have now). :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    edited December 2013
    Trains take up a lot more room than Modulars. I'm glad I moved my setup to my business. I have more room to add to my layout there.

    I can't wait to see what the future holds for Lego Trains.
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