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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    9474 should be fine by Xmas 2015. Short shelf life, big ticket of the first wave, yes yes, but it's been a slow seller and will be slow to rise until the oodles of oodles hoarded by the impatient many are burned off.
  • legofanfromleedslegofanfromleeds legoland...England Member Posts: 390
    edited December 2013
    nkx1 said:

    Maybe the 30" monitor is 1920x1080 resolution? Mine is 27" but 2560x1440. 33% extra vertical resolution works out nicely for long posts. Actually, if you're using an iphone 5, the vertical resolution (1136p in portrait mode) is superior to that of a 1080p monitor!

    Yawn......whoops nearly nodded off just then
    FollowsClosely
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734

    As more and more come out, the number of people who need to "complete" their collections drops.

    Here's another perspective, from someone who doesn't have any modulars: Parisian Restaurant looks so good compared to the previous modulars that I'm much less interested in what came before.
    CircleKchrisdojojasorMathBuilderlegomatt
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I think the mods increased spacing between lines so no one would have to put too many line breaks in anymore. Maybe that is what rocao is getting at.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719


    Yawn......whoops nearly nodded off just then

    Haha, sorry!

    Back to Lego, I ordered a few Batcaves for pickup from a local TRU. Hopefully they'll be in stock, but not holding my breath. Surprised to see that these have already shot up to $90 on ebay.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    ^ which is odd considering they are still available at [email protected] and there was free shipping all last weekend.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    My store has batcaves but of course they are showing "out of stock" for in store pickup. This is becoming a regular thing with TRU.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    rocao said:

    <>@LegoFanTexas: come on, these line breaks are excessive. Nearly every post takes up half my screen and I'm on a 30" monitor. Not every sentence needs to have a dramatic pause.

    There is this thing called a mouse scroll wheel, does wonders on all sizes of screens...you should look into it...
    jasor
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Are any of you collectors? I really don't understand why anyone wouldn't want the older Modulars because they seem inferior to the newer ones. Why do people still want the Yellow castle or any other older Lego set? They want them because it either adds or completes their collection. People will still buy CC, GG and MS. The same reason why people are still buying Gold C-3PO and Mr. Gold. They want them to complete their minifigure collections. People will want to complete theirmodular ccollection.
    SuperTrampvitreolummadforLEGOcardgeniusjasor
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    ^ Is this the right time to kindly point out there is a thread to discuss collecting and this is certainly not it!
    FollowsClosely
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited December 2013
    ^ No, it's not, because unlike the pureblood threads, this thread welcomes such viewpoints as complimentary to the discussion.
    BumblepantspharmjodPitfall69wagnerml2jasor
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Pitfall69 said:

    Are any of you collectors? I really don't understand why anyone wouldn't want the older Modulars because they seem inferior to the newer ones. Why do people still want the Yellow castle or any other older Lego set? They want them because it either adds or completes their collection. People will still buy CC, GG and MS. The same reason why people are still buying Gold C-3PO and Mr. Gold. They want them to complete their minifigure collections. People will want to complete theirmodular ccollection.

    Exactly, and it's not even a fair comparison either. The biggest difference between early mods and the FB is (and this has been said before), most existing collectors who want the FB, already have the FB. That leaves new-to-the-hobby collectors as the only true market for resellers. This group can take years to replensish.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    ^ Yes, yes, I know, I was joking I was trying to make that point that should you dare to mention reselling in any other thread than this then it will be seriously frowned upon. Talk about what you like here, it's fine by me, really.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited December 2013
    No drops of hyperbole here. 2560 x 1600; it takes up nearly the entire screen.

    And one of the thankless jobs the staff has is to stress about the readability of the forum so that you guys don't.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,118

    Pitfall69 said:

    Are any of you collectors? I really don't understand why anyone wouldn't want the older Modulars because they seem inferior to the newer ones. Why do people still want the Yellow castle or any other older Lego set? They want them because it either adds or completes their collection. People will still buy CC, GG and MS. The same reason why people are still buying Gold C-3PO and Mr. Gold. They want them to complete their minifigure collections. People will want to complete theirmodular ccollection.

    Exactly, and it's not even a fair comparison either. The biggest difference between early mods and the FB is (and this has been said before), most existing collectors who want the FB, already have the FB. That leaves new-to-the-hobby collectors as the only true market for resellers. This group can take years to replensish.
    I dunno, considering all of the money LEGO is making year after year one has to assume that you have new die hard buyers all the time and then you have people in their dark ages that come back and miss it, then you will have kids that were too young to buy one get income and want one.
    Again, it is a firehouse, almost all the other mods are interchangeable but a fire house is a firehouse and LEGO is unlikely to do another any time soon
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    For you guys on the fence about Helms Deep check out the Castle forum over on Eurobricks. There's a guy who combined HD and the Vampyre Castle into one mega castle with very little modification. It's pretty impressive.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Are any of you collectors? I really don't understand why anyone wouldn't want the older Modulars because they seem inferior to the newer ones.

    There is a difference between wanting something, and being willing to pay what that something costs.

    There is also the issue of supply vs. demand. As long as supply is plentiful, the price will stay down, even for those willing to pay a premium. Supply has to dry up almost completely to get sets to the price level of Cafe Corner, to reach those few people willing to pay $1,500 for a new-in-box LEGO set.

    Everyone else passes because for the same money, you can buy all 5 current modulars for less money than the cost of a NISB CC.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    mathew said:

    For you guys on the fence about Helms Deep check out the Castle forum over on Eurobricks. There's a guy who combined HD and the Vampyre Castle into one mega castle with very little modification. It's pretty impressive.

    How bout a link for those of us who quickly lost interest because there wasn't a link.
    cardgeniusjasor
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    edited December 2013
    rocao said:

    No drops of hyperbole here. 2560 x 1600 image screenshot attached.
    And one of the thankless jobs the staff has is to stress about the readability of the forum so that you guys don't.

    Your veiwpoint, and one your entitled to. Personally I find the line breaks to make lengthy posts much easier to read.

    For you guys on the fence about Helms Deep check out the Castle forum over on Eurobricks. There's a guy who combined HD and the Vampyre Castle into one mega castle with very little modification. It's pretty impressive.
    Link for the lazy:
    http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=89205

    Its interesting. But doesn't add to much imo. Doesnt really have any effect on the aftermarket price. I don't think anyone has ever argued that Hels deep doesnt make a great parts pack.
    klatu003
  • mdellemanmdelleman Vancouver CanadaMember Posts: 274

    mathew said:

    For you guys on the fence about Helms Deep check out the Castle forum over on Eurobricks. There's a guy who combined HD and the Vampyre Castle into one mega castle with very little modification. It's pretty impressive.

    How bout a link for those of us who quickly lost interest because there wasn't a link.
    http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=89205
    FollowsClosely
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    Pitfall69 said:

    Are any of you collectors? I really don't understand why anyone wouldn't want the older Modulars because they seem inferior to the newer ones.

    Not everyone is a completionist collector. Some simply want a group of buildings that look good together.
    Pitfall69 said:

    Why do people still want the Yellow castle or any other older Lego set? They want them because it either adds or completes their collection.

    For sets that old, some of the demand comes from nostalgia, not completionist collectors. When Fire Brigade is ~35 years old, there will surely be some demand for it by people who wanted it as a kid, or had it and lost it.
    Pitfall69 said:

    People will still buy CC, GG and MS. The same reason why people are still buying Gold C-3PO and Mr. Gold. They want them to complete their minifigure collections. People will want to complete theirmodular ccollection.

    People will want to complete their modular collection (with all modulars ever produced by LEGO) if they are completionist collectors. Of all the people who buy modulars, how many are completionist collectors?
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited December 2013

    Your veiwpoint, and one your entitled to. Personally I find the line breaks to make lengthy posts much easier to read.

    I'm not saying we should do away with all line breaks. In the example I cited, it was excessive. It was a break after each word. And it wasn't an isolated incident if you care enough to check previous posts; you'll find line breaks after each sentence.

    You're right that it's a judgement call, and in this case, it's a judgement call that I'm making. I don't really wish to spend much more time debating this.
    Chompers
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,664
    What is the resale value of that monitor?
    sidersddPitfall69thenosLegoManiaccjasor
  • xeeeejxeeeej Member Posts: 71
    Rocao, I believe your request/suggestion/recommendation would have been much better received had you sent via PM. This thread and board have enough clutter as is.
    Just a suggestion for similar future events.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,144
    At the end of the day we should all let cooler heads prevail. I mean this is about LEGO is it not? Let's forget the side banter and get back to what matters, especially in this forum: What is being discontinued, predictions and thoughts as it relates to this.

    Ultimately, as we are on the subject of FB, I think major resellers are going to feel it the most. They may have to wait the longest and/or take the biggest hit long term in order to move their stock. For those with under maybe 10 sets? Someone just passively selling the extra's off as a hobby? Maybe with enough patience they will at least see a decent return. In summation for the FB, we must be what? 2 or 3 years AWAY from even knowing what the end results will be? If we are basing this all of CC and GC standards?

    Speaking of...I thought about this, and I agree with some sentiment above. For those collectors who just want to have a modular block and are fine with the current line, they may never want a CC or GC and now a FB, but for those who really want to be complete they will always, always, ALWAYS want to have everything, including MS. For a new generation of collectors they may not care one way or the other, but I think the modular line is so big now and popular with the general audience around the globe that there will always be a following, even for the beloved FB, maybe more so than we think.

    In closing comments/arguments/etc imagine what Ole Kirk Christiansen would think about all this?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I think FB will do well long term. With that said, the Parisian Cafe will set a new standard. The detailing and non-traditional structure sets it apart from the others. To my eye, it doesn't really go with the rest of the series which might decrease the demand for the older models.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    xeeeej said:

    Rocao, I believe your request/suggestion/recommendation would have been much better received had you sent via PM. This thread and board have enough clutter as is.
    Just a suggestion for similar future events.

    I didn't PM because I didn't think this was a matter that needed much dialogue between LFT and myself. This really isn't any different than people being publicly called out for their poor spelling, grammar, or lack of punctuation -- which I don't do -- but seems to be generally accepted as the intent is for the overall good of readability.

    Maybe I'm right...

    Maybe I'm wrong...

    Time will tell.

  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,144


    Maybe I'm right...

    Maybe I'm wrong...

    Time will tell.



    Ha Ha

    FollowsCloselyjasor
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Your post breaks are beginning to look like LFT's line breaks.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,144
    I feel like I got out with the skin of my teeth. I ordered another FB keep new about a month ago, just had a feeling this holiday season would be it. And I likely have this forum to thank for the good knowledge! So on that account, thanks everyone!
  • klatu003klatu003 Hobbiton, Shire, Middle EarthMember Posts: 724
    As a modular building collector who came to the party when CC and GG were in the EOL $350 range, I didn't bite, but got all the current ones including FB. I've been adding each of the new ones since and cobbled together CC & GG using some alternate colors/parts. (MS just seemed a little off and I have no interest.) If FB had been retired, I would probably pay $200 - $250 to have it. So, there is a middling collector's input for you guys. Now, if we were talking LoTR/Hobbit......... glad that ship is sitting at the dock for me.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited December 2013
    Right, and when they remake the LOTR movies in a few years, these current sets will be worth tons.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Nobody seems to be talking about the Grand Emporium. It's still in stock at [email protected] and Walmart but appears to be sold out everywhere else. My guess is that it's going soon as well.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    GE is available worldwide. Not going anywhere just yet IMO. I am guessing the end of 2014 / early 2015 on that one.

  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    mathew said:

    Nobody seems to be talking about the Grand Emporium. It's still in stock at [email protected] and Walmart but appears to be sold out everywhere else. My guess is that it's going soon as well.

    GE is a wild card. I seriously doubt it has been stocked at the same levels that FB has, so I could see that giving it a boost when it does retire. On the other hand, I'm not sure how sought after it will be. I personally think it is the worst of the group (besides MS) but that is a matter of preference. I'm not sure how others feel about it, but I have read time and time again that it is a boring build. I haven't bought one. Not having the desire to go after a CC at after market prices already makes the theme incomplete for me, so it's easy to pass on the current Mods that I don't like - looking at you GE and TH.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    There are a ton of Batcaves at my local Fred Meyer
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    Those that stocked up on the Wolverine Chopper Showdown will be happy. They are already selling in the $30-40 range on eBay. Not bad for a set that was $15-16 on Amazon just a few weeks back. Which I had bought more!!
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    149 Wolverine figs were sold on BL in Nov. There are a total of 163 now available. So by January there'll be...uh, less.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    So #6866 is sold out on SAH but do we have word that it is retired/retiring?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    6866 is retired now as far as I know...
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    what would be shipping cost for one of these i.e. #6866
    RichB said:

    Those that stocked up on the Wolverine Chopper Showdown will be happy. They are already selling in the $30-40 range on eBay. Not bad for a set that was $15-16 on Amazon just a few weeks back. Which I had bought more!!

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    rocao said:


    Maybe I'm right...
    Maybe I'm wrong...
    Time will tell.

    First world problems my friend... :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    what would be shipping cost for one of these i.e. #6866

    From where to where? Boxed or deboxed in a bubble envelope? All important questions... :)
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Has the Vampyre Castle gone EOL?
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Doubt the GE is now going eol since Lego have changed the quantity limit from 5 to 99 this morning.
  • scrumperscrumper UKMember Posts: 323
    ^Or that could be a method of clearing stock at EOL?
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Target has raised the price of their remaining stock of FBs to $209. They could have quite a bit of stock left if they planned for retirement, I doubt other places will get more shipments now. GE will probably go at the beginning of next year.
    FollowsClosely
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    set itself is about 13oz with box and wrap about 1lb 3oz from NY to WY.

    what would be shipping cost for one of these i.e. #6866

    From where to where? Boxed or deboxed in a bubble envelope? All important questions... :)
    btw, FB is back in stock @ target for $209.99 LOL and they will let you buy 6 of them in one order :)
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    VC has gone, but there is still stock about I think
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 514
    ^ Yes TRU has VC at BOGO50% right now; $75 each if you buy two
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