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Technic in the aftermarket

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  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    I have built one of my 2, no regrets :)
    Dougout
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited August 2013
    Placed a parts order earlier and was told the 41999 is officially sold out at S-A-H and can only be purchased at a Lego store...
  • jdylakjdylak Member Posts: 281
    Isn't that what you are supposed to do with a set?
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    Wow.. I cannot believe how the prices of these have increased on Ebay already... People are already asking insane prices and many of the current auctions are over $400 and climbing..

    People that flipped their set quickly for a $25 profit must be kicking themselves right now..
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    If I don't have a new model finished, I think I found out what my 2014 Charity Auction for Make-A-Wish is going to be... I might do a model and a #41999...
  • bp10030bp10030 Member Posts: 102
    Found a nice video about #41999 :
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=IOmEexsflMQ
    We need more such nice ones. They will drive up the demand =)
    Legofanscott
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Well that is all the price action I need to see. $400 USD is the floor enroute to $500....$600 will be the price this shopping season.....fluctuating between high 4's to mid 6's after that. Time to move on and plan for 9/1/13.
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited August 2013
    nkx1 said:

    I was thinking the same thing. I just saw a few go yesterday morning or so for $299 + shipping of $30 or so. If these same people would have waited a few hours, they probably could have sold for $400. Whoops!

    Last week there were people selling them for $299.99 with free shipping... After Ebay, Paypal, and shipping fees, that leaves you with about $243... I did notice most people selling them cheap hadn't sold many things in the past and probably didn't realize how they were going to get burned with the fees...

  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    70% of the meat and potatoes of this set is something that has already existed...
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    @Crowkillers - Just the nice blue box or perhaps the 'Exclusive' tag is enough to do it. :o)

    Further to my earlier plea for some kind soul in the US to help me find a spare one, that kind soul came forward. Thank you.
    BrickarmorYellowcastleDougout
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    Pitfall69 said:



    I asked this question before. Is there a huge market for Technic parts? I have a ton of them, but I don't know what to do with them.

    There are sellers on bricklink making quite the profit selling Technic parts... My buddy paid for his entire wedding selling Technic this year..
    Pitfall69
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I have a #8295 that is doing ok on ebay right now. It has about an hour left. Brickpicker says it goes for about 150, so we will see. I imagine this is the typical success of these larger sets that aren't too flashy.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,506
    Crowkillers said:

    Pitfall69 said:



    I asked this question before. Is there a huge market for Technic parts? I have a ton of them, but I don't know what to do with them.

    There are sellers on bricklink making quite the profit selling Technic parts... My buddy paid for his entire wedding selling Technic this year..
    I bet this is what her wedding ring looked like ;o)
    image
    Pitfall69charlatan13
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    I got 2 new unimogs for half RRP, both have badly damaged boxes. I can't decided, should I part them out, save them for EOL (even though they will not be worth as much as MISB) or build a 8 wheeled double cab 'mog with a crane at both ends...

    What would you do?
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited October 2013
    $375 seems to be the current going rate on ebay. However, if stores do not receive additional shipments, I think it's quite possible we could see $450+ prices before x-mas. $450-$460 was about the going rate right after these sold out in stores the first round.

    From what I've seen previously, prices dip quite a bit for a few weeks to a month after stores are restocked. After that, the prices seem to rebound at least to the low $400s.

    Also, just a few thoughts: Although I agree with Legoboy that this set could well be forgotten about a year into the future, it's also possible it may stand the test of time (at least for a few years) as a flagship set of sorts. The limited availability, unique colors, high-quality box, and LED lights are things that Lego hasn't really done for Technic sets. Those features might keep people interested for a while. Eventually, most Lego sets will be forgotten about with 500+ sets being release every year.
  • DoubleDDoubleD Member Posts: 488
    Beaver
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited October 2013
    Retired Flagship Technic sets don't get forgotten about... And this one will not be an exception, especially since it is so unique...

    The one thing that I've noticed about most of the people selling 41999 Crawlers on Ebay is that they are only selling within the United States... Any real seller that moves Lego knows that to make real money you can't just sell to where it seems convenient for you... People limiting their selling audience are missing out...
    vitreolum
  • BigKidBigKid Member Posts: 29
    edited October 2013
    Crowkillers said:

    Retired Flagship Technic sets don't get forgotten about... And this one will not be an exception, especially since it is so unique...

    The one thing that I've noticed about most of the people selling 41999 Crawlers on Ebay is that they are only selling within the United States... Any real seller that moves Lego knows that to make real money you can't just sell to where it seems convenient for you... People limiting their selling audience are missing out...

    I understand, but to me it's not worth the risk.

    BigKid

  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    BigKid said:

    Crowkillers said:

    Retired Flagship Technic sets don't get forgotten about... And this one will not be an exception, especially since it is so unique...

    The one thing that I've noticed about most of the people selling 41999 Crawlers on Ebay is that they are only selling within the United States... Any real seller that moves Lego knows that to make real money you can't just sell to where it seems convenient for you... People limiting their selling audience are missing out...

    I understand, but to me it's not worth the risk.

    BigKid

    Well since the package weighs 8 pounds, it has to go out priority which can be tracked and you just insure it... Over the years I've sent out stuff to just about every country out there and never had any problems yet..



  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Snap, as long as you use a proper delivery service, tracked and signed for with insurance, never had a problem!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    stevemack said:

    Snap, as long as you use a proper delivery service, tracked and signed for with insurance, never had a problem!

    Yes, that is true... but that is often expensive...

    USPS overseas shipping has gotten expensive, Priority Mail doesn't offer tracking to many countries, you have to use Express Mail to have it.

    UPS and FedEx are options, but very expensive. I've insisted on them when shipping very expensive items (UCS Falcon for example), but otherwise it is a case-by-case basis.
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited October 2013
    Yeah, UPS is out of the question when it comes to overseas shipping... The cost is just ridiculous...

    LFT, from your experience, what countries do you know that do not track with USPS Priority..? I know that First Class International tracking is hit and miss when delivery is concerned.. Brazil is a rough country to ship anything to, but for the most part I have never had any issue with priority tracking, even to countries like United Arab Emirates...
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    ^I am Brazilian, living in the United States, and I have sent a few sets to Brazil, and even though International Priority is somewhat "trackable" with USPS to Brazil, I always send Express Mail, it's safer that way. A lot of mail gets lost in Brazil or gets stuck at Customs for inspection, and Express is the only way you can track both at the USPS.com website and at Correios.com.

    I sent a "Batman Two-Face Chase" set to Brazil recently and the Express Mail shipping cost was a little under $60, with insurance. Most of the times, the sets that are really worth selling are too big and too heavy, so Express Mail costs go to the roof.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    In my experience, Priority Mail International is hit and miss, some countries pass on the scan, others do not, but it isn't guaranteed.

    Keep in mind that showing it scanned as delivered is required to defend against a PayPal claim under $250, and a signature at delivery is required to defend against a PayPal claim over $250.

    It doesn't happen often, but it always seems to be on the expensive sets.

    I've sent several retired sets overseas, several #10030 and #10179 sets, along with a few others like #10181 and #10189.

    Sometimes I've used USPS Express Mail, other times I've used FedEx. I use FedEx and UPS to Canada since those have a ground service.

    For larger sets like DS/SSD/Falcon, you have to use Express Mail, the boxes are too large for PMI. A Modular box will go PMI most places if packed in a 24x20x4" shipping box.
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    coolpix said:

    ^I am Brazilian, living in the United States, and I have sent a few sets to Brazil, and even though International Priority is somewhat "trackable" with USPS to Brazil, I always send Express Mail, it's safer that way. A lot of mail gets lost in Brazil or gets stuck at Customs for inspection, and Express is the only way you can track both at the USPS.com website and at Correios.com.

    I sent a "Batman Two-Face Chase" set to Brazil recently and the Express Mail shipping cost was a little under $60, with insurance. Most of the times, the sets that are really worth selling are too big and too heavy, so Express Mail costs go to the roof.

    I've had some bad experiences with shipping to Brazil.. That is the only country that I have had to refund the buyers 3 times now.. I actually have Brazil now blocked.. Just too many issues.. A friend there told me that they have the most corrupt customs department in the world..

  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited October 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    In my experience, Priority Mail International is hit and miss, some countries pass on the scan, others do not, but it isn't guaranteed.

    Keep in mind that showing it scanned as delivered is required to defend against a PayPal claim under $250, and a signature at delivery is required to defend against a PayPal claim over $250.

    It doesn't happen often, but it always seems to be on the expensive sets.

    I've sent several retired sets overseas, several #10030 and #10179 sets, along with a few others like #10181 and #10189.

    Sometimes I've used USPS Express Mail, other times I've used FedEx. I use FedEx and UPS to Canada since those have a ground service.

    For larger sets like DS/SSD/Falcon, you have to use Express Mail, the boxes are too large for PMI. A Modular box will go PMI most places if packed in a 24x20x4" shipping box.


    Yeah, I know that there is a size limit in girth... I've sent multiple sets to Japan (8653, 8145, 8674) at the same time and had to break them up into 2 orders because of the size...

    I also always insure anything over $50

    I've shipped UPS to Canada before because it isn't too bad... My wife had a small bricklink order that a buyer from Europe wanted shipped by UPS and it cost over $100... It was only a $35 order.. The buyer paid it.. I can't remember off hand what country that it was, but it just seemed insane to pay that much for shipping such a low cost order...
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    This discussion was created from comments split from: 4x4 Crawler (41999).
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    Crowkillers said:

    I could see this Triple in price by this time next year and I could see it over $1,000 way less than 10 years considering the low number of them that were made..

    rocao said:

    I'll take the under on average selling price of $600 by 8/7/2014. Offer open to the first person that wants to book it. We can wager anywhere from a trifle to a 41999 :)

    8/7/2014 has come and gone and average selling price on Bricklink is currently $363.95 :P
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    ^ it seemed clear that resellers buying from resellers was fueling the rapid rises post-launch. Glad I instant-flipped mine for $550
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    ^ Yep, a very interesting case-study, and probably one that we won't see repeated.

    Back when #41999 went out of stock, a number of people were saying that TLG severely underestimated the demand for the set. I made a long post (which I can't find now) that compared artificial demand (flippers) to real demand (consumers).

    I opined that 20k might be a little conservative, but was probably a good approximation of demand based on the information TLG had (Technic sales, # of votes in the fan survey, etc). Essentially, I trusted that TLG knows more about demand for their product that any of us do.

    Based on this, I figured real demand would not sustain a climb up to $600.

    Even still, a single reseller managed to purchase 10% of all copies produced! That's simply incredible, and had me sweating a bit when the price shot up to $450 not long after I offered the bet.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    edited August 2014
    rocao said:

    ^ Yep, a very interesting case-study, and probably one that we won't see repeated.

    Back when #41999 went out of stock, a number of people were saying that TLG severely underestimated the demand for the set. I made a long post (which I can't find now) that compared artificial demand (flippers) to real demand (consumers).

    I opined that 20k might be a little conservative, but was probably a good approximation of demand based on the information TLG had (Technic sales, # of votes in the fan survey, etc). Essentially, I trusted that TLG knows more about demand for their product that any of us do.

    Based on this, I figured real demand would not sustain a climb up to $600.

    Even still, a single reseller managed to purchase 10% of all copies produced! That's simply incredible, and had me sweating a bit when the price shot up to $450 not long after I offered the bet.

    I think we will see a bigger spike in price personally. In my opinion it had peaked right now, but only because of the existence of #9398 and while #41999 is unique with the limited run and believe that those that now choose to purchase a technic crawler opt for the much cheaper plan of the #9398 and when discontinued we will see an increase further increases in #41999. I supplied multiple sets myself to probably the same reseller you mention for the £310 mark up, so double what I paid which made sense at the time and still does now as I don't have the luxury of holding onto a set for 4+ years.

    I think the reseller will be able to get £600+ in another 2 years. But to say he will be waiting a while to shift lets say 2000+ sets is an understatement.

  • roxioroxio Member Posts: 1,384
    I flipped one to the reseller for £400. Sold one last month for £330. One left to hold.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited August 2014
    In case it wasn't clear, I meant that I didn't think it would appreciate to $600 in the one year time period that Crowkillers was suggesting.

    I think it has a shot to reach $600, but I think it's an underdog to do it within the next two years.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    ^Gives a whole new meaning to "Crawler."
    rocao
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited August 2014
    I sold both of mine for $450 each to a guy from the UK a week after they released, so $600 didn't seem unreasonable at that point... Now let's see if you can remember this thread in 7 or 8 years when my prediction about them being $1,000 happens.. ;)
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    Billybrown said:

    rocao said:

    ^ Yep, a very interesting case-study, and probably one that we won't see repeated.

    Back when #41999 went out of stock, a number of people were saying that TLG severely underestimated the demand for the set. I made a long post (which I can't find now) that compared artificial demand (flippers) to real demand (consumers).

    I opined that 20k might be a little conservative, but was probably a good approximation of demand based on the information TLG had (Technic sales, # of votes in the fan survey, etc). Essentially, I trusted that TLG knows more about demand for their product that any of us do.

    Based on this, I figured real demand would not sustain a climb up to $600.

    Even still, a single reseller managed to purchase 10% of all copies produced! That's simply incredible, and had me sweating a bit when the price shot up to $450 not long after I offered the bet.

    I think we will see a bigger spike in price personally. In my opinion it had peaked right now, but only because of the existence of #9398 and while #41999 is unique with the limited run and believe that those that now choose to purchase a technic crawler opt for the much cheaper plan of the #9398 and when discontinued we will see an increase further increases in #41999. I supplied multiple sets myself to probably the same reseller you mention for the £310 mark up, so double what I paid which made sense at the time and still does now as I don't have the luxury of holding onto a set for 4+ years.

    I think the reseller will be able to get £600+ in another 2 years. But to say he will be waiting a while to shift lets say 2000+ sets is an understatement.

    It could also change if lego do another limited edition technic set similar to this.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    edited August 2014
    rocao said:

    I opined that 20k might be a little conservative, but was probably a good approximation of demand based on the information TLG had (Technic sales, # of votes in the fan survey, etc). Essentially, I trusted that TLG knows more about demand for their product that any of us do.

    I wonder if that holds true for Mars Rover, Research Institute, Exo-Suit.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    Crowkillers said:

    I sold both of mine for $450 each to a guy from the UK a week after they released, so $600 didn't seem unreasonable at that point... Now let's see if you can remember this thread in 7 or 8 years when my prediction about them being $1,000 happens.. ;)

    I think they will hit that target in 7-8 years, but I fry all my fish within the first 2 years due to the size of my inventory. For those willing to wait then yes big gains.
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    The problem with this set is what if the guy who was buying them up decides that these are the dog of his portfolio and cuts his losses? He may undercut everyone trying to sell theirs and consequently the value could plummet.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    He may even start dumping a few of them at really low prices, in order to start panic selling and bring the price down. Just so he can then buy up the remaining 50% (or however many remain in sealed boxes) and really corner the market in these.
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    ^ He's brave if he does that, but sure, I agree it could happen.
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp Member Posts: 1,021
    Brave's spending £600k(apparently) on a Lego set which will probably take him 20+ years to get back.
  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    I don't think he's in a rush to sell
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    Brave isn't the word I'd use for it... but to each his own.
    vitreolumNorlego
  • thehornedratthehornedrat Member Posts: 87
    We now have lime green beams and panels, new light blue panels, new black panels, green panels...

    And then as the 41999 aftermarket price starts to appreciate Lego releases Technic models with beams and panels in dark navy blue... ;)
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^which set? Something new for 2015?
  • NorlegoNorlego Member Posts: 449
    Never really bothered with buying technics as i thought they were low value items. But used 80s sets seem to be worth quite a bit as buyers are older with dispensible money. Sold a set bought for £10 for £140.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    6 of the 2013 technic are already "call to check..." on S@H UK.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    It is interesting to look back on this thread after so long, with the knowledge that the market price now is still only about £400-450.


  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,730
    #41999 was such a cool looking set but I didn't care for the performance. I sold both after driving one around a bit and climbing it over some books. It was so slow though anything but climbing was dull.
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