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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    stevemack said:

    The longer you can store discontinued stock, the bigger the advantage you have over your fellow resellers if you asked me!

    That is but only one factor. The longer you store a Lego set to realize earnings, the less appealing that investment is compared to something like a basic mutual fund. If you sell a DS for $1000 in 5 years, great. If you sell it for $1000 in 20 years, that's a bad investment.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    wagnerml2 said:

    I don't sell a lot of unopened stock, but the complete used market is tanking big time. I just sold two complete used #8019 Republic attack shuttles over the past few weeks. Had sold 7 or 8 of these last year at this time and averaged $65-$75, this one sold at $26 and one sold at $35. Other SW sets tanking as well. I understand that these are not highly sought after, but the market does seem to be softening considerably.

    Are you selling on ebay using an auction format? If so did you know ebay has rolling blackouts coupled with the fact that cassini may hide your listings to the majority of buyers? Do your research on ebay or you will lose your shirt going forward.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    edited September 2013
    tensor said:

    ecmo47 said:

    We are already seeing Target and others mark up sets to Toys-R-Us levels.

    We are?
    Of course! The aberration that is Minecraft at 40% above RRP on the Target website is the definition of "Toys-R-Us levels". ~20% above RRP for every set on the shelves is surely right around the corner.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    @doriansdad - HOLY CRAP! I had no idea. Haven't sold in about 2 months because of work issues. That's some serious BS! I'll definitely check it out.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited September 2013
    ^A couple of weeks ago, I was unable to connect to ebay (beyond some semblance of a home page) for about an hour. If I had an auction ending during that period, that would have been really aggravating.

    Additionally, for a particular set I'm selling currently, I like to peruse listings every so often to ensure my listing is the among the lowest price. When I search for this particular set, (Lego #####), a few totally unrelated sets also show up in the search results.

    Something is definitely up with ebay; it's not clear if they're intentionally screwing up the search results in an attempt to bolster sales, or if their search engine is somehow malfunctioning. Maybe their programming team is just incompetent.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I never do auctions. Before I list a set I check recent sales and then price mine slightly less than the average as a Buy it Now. I like to move things quickly.
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    nkx1 said:

    Something is definitely up with ebay; it's not clear if they're intentionally screwing up the search results in an attempt to bolster sales, or if their search engine is somehow malfunctioning. Maybe their programming team is just incompetent.

    Their search engine is working exactly how they designed it. Cassini uses an algorithm based on your location, your DSRs, how many cases you have opened, how many cases have been oepend against you, how many times you call ebay customer service, if you accept returns, do you offer free shipping, and of course how much money you make ebay.

    If you are a top rated seller your listings will get hit by the rolling blackouts more often and will also become invisible as you get a discount on final value fees. If your buyer is on the other side of the country they will see your listing more often as ebay makes more money off the final value fee on shipping. You will want to play around with searches by clearing cookies, spoofing IP addresses for different locatrions etc to figure it out.

    Due to looming lawsuits on October 1st once you log into ebay you will by default accept their new terms of service stating explicitly your listings may not be visible to buyers. Basically if you take up server space, sell used items, selling using the auction format, and do not make them enough money your listings will not be visible.

    JD's vision was to transform ebay from a "flea market" to a go to retail shopping site. Sellers of used items and those using the auction format will be hidden. Small sellers selling new items that use the buy it now format will last a little longer. They will keep ratcheting up the fees for these small sellers until there is no reason to list and take up server space anymore. The diamond sellers (big box and the chinese) get huge discounts on final value fees and they are the only sellers JD wants on the site.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    In case you haven't noticed, for a while now by default, Ebay has listed searches by "best match," and not by what's ending soonest.

    If you want to appear on searches better, and have the best overall perks ebay has to offer, you should attain and maintain Top Rated Plus status.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    binaryeye said:

    tensor said:

    ecmo47 said:

    We are already seeing Target and others mark up sets to Toys-R-Us levels.

    We are?
    Of course! The aberration that is Minecraft at 40% above RRP on the Target website is the definition of "Toys-R-Us levels". ~20% above RRP for every set on the shelves is surely right around the corner.
    I suppose that's one set (and one that has had a twisted history when it comes to pricing and availability), but the newer Minecrafts are msrp. Are there any other sets?

    This all said, it would not surprise me in the least if, given the new world order of Lego price-fixing, that retailers adopt the TRU model of "list prices" (which are above msrp) so that they can have specials that bring the "sale price" down to msrp. If the Lego regime is truly cracking down, then that will be the only way retailers can appear to be offering great deals, when they really are not.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited September 2013
    tensor said:

    In case you haven't noticed, for a while now by default, Ebay has listed searches by "best match," and not by what's ending soonest.

    If you want to appear on searches better, and have the best overall perks ebay has to offer, you should attain and maintain Top Rated Plus status.

    It has been known for a while if your are Top Rated and get a discount on fees your listings will go on a server that gets blacked out more often. Once you lose your Top Rated status you will be more visible again. No doubt in the future you will be able to pay to "upgrade" your listings to be visible all of the time. Until then enjoy your million free listings...at least you will be able to see them lol.

  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    tensor said:

    I suppose that's one set (and one that has had a twisted history when it comes to pricing and availability), but the newer Minecrafts are msrp. Are there any other sets?

    No other sets that I know of. Hence the (hopefully obvious) sarcasm.
    tensor said:

    This all said, it would not surprise me in the least if, given the new world order of Lego price-fixing, that retailers adopt the TRU model of "list prices" (which are above msrp) so that they can have specials that bring the "sale price" down to msrp. If the Lego regime is truly cracking down, then that will be the only way retailers can appear to be offering great deals, when they really are not.

    I'd most likely stop buying LEGO if that happened. It's already expensive, and RRPs are trending upward, it seems, even for non-licensed sets.

  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited September 2013
    Interesting stuff, thanks doriansdad. I had a feeling something had definitely changed, but didn't bother to research it any further.

    I guess that's bad news for people like me, assuming all of what you noted will come true. I'm pretty much a hobby seller (very low 5 figures in new inventory), so I may see my fees rise. To add insult to injury, when I sell my used Lego once EOL, it may not be seen by everyone searching for those sets? Bummer. Sounds like a great time for a worthy competitor to ebay to start up.
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275
    tensor said:

    We are?

    I've seen the creator log cabin set marked up to $34.99 at quite a few Targets. Even on clearance for like $31.09. Some of those stores even had it for $29.99 before Christmas and marked it UP to put it on clearance.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    @doriansdad - that's odd, because the actual page views seems to be consistent with what I have seen historically (give or take a ten or so). I always do 5 day auctions ending on Sunday evenings and have usually gotten more that the average closing price on same used sets closing in the prior 60 days.

    I guess I'll really need to look into it. I am listed as a power seller, but have not gone to "free shipping" or "hassle free" returns as I think that is not in MY best interest.

    If all this is true, we will more than likely see an new site pop up that caters to us smaller sellers. Ebay will become like Mtv. Remember when they used to play music? Ebay, remember when people used to sell stuff on there?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited September 2013
    There will never be a competitor to ebay I am sorry to say. Make sure to read the new TOS on Oct 1st and good luck!

    Oh and per the new TOS ebay will automatically enroll you in the managed returns process. Make sure to opt out. Same goes for the disasterous GSP. Enjoy :)
    FollowsCloselywagnerml2
  • LobotLobot Member Posts: 1,029
    doriansdad said:

    nkx1 said:

    They will keep ratcheting up the fees for these small sellers until there is no reason to list and take up server space anymore. The diamond sellers (big box and the chinese) get huge discounts on final value fees and they are the only sellers JD wants on the site.

    This is the first that I've heard about changes to Ebay, but I'll watch out for the 1st October and see what happens. It's true that the fee structure has recently changed (to also include P&P) but they're now consistently running free listing weekends, usually every couple of weeks. In addition, you can now add up to 12 photos free of charge, so I'm not sure that the changes are designed to free-up any server space.....literally or not.
  • juggles7juggles7 Member Posts: 451
    "If the reseller market remains lucrative enough, it will be taken over by the retail giants who have the ability to store massive amounts of sets."

    Not a chance. WalMart and Target couldn't do this even if they wanted. They lack the expertise and inclination. They sell commodities. They move products, not age them. They wouldn't know which sets to store. It's evidenced by them not knowing which sets to carry/not carry, discount or clearance. Every clearance sale they have shows they have not purchased wisely. You and I and most people reading this know a lot more about Lego, its aftermarket potential for themes and sets, than does your average WalMart toy department manager, much less the suits with deep pockets who could "store massive amounts of sets."

    cloaked7
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Never is a very strong word...

    It will however... be awhile before there is one. Back in the day, it was all about Yahoo, then Google over-ran them. 10 years ago no one saw anyone taking on Microsoft, but today Microsoft is less and less important to the future.

    Times change...
  • xeeeejxeeeej Member Posts: 71
    doriansdad said:

    tensor said:

    In case you haven't noticed, for a while now by default, Ebay has listed searches by "best match," and not by what's ending soonest.

    If you want to appear on searches better, and have the best overall perks ebay has to offer, you should attain and maintain Top Rated Plus status.

    It has been known for a while if your are Top Rated and get a discount on fees your listings will go on a server that gets blacked out more often. Once you lose your Top Rated status you will be more visible again. No doubt in the future you will be able to pay to "upgrade" your listings to be visible all of the time. Until then enjoy your million free listings...at least you will be able to see them lol.

    source?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I'm thinking that Bricklink 2.0 will be everything EBay is and isn't for Lego enthusiasts.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I got zapped by the GSP last week. I forgot to opt out, although I was able to use it in my favor for acouple of sets. I will have to thoroughly read through the entire listing and make sure I'm not in any program EBay automatically enrolls me in.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm thinking that Bricklink 2.0 will be everything EBay is and isn't for Lego enthusiasts.

    Hahahahahahah. Pitfall, you had me goin for a sec there.
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    tensor said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm thinking that Bricklink 2.0 will be everything EBay is and isn't for Lego enthusiasts.

    Hahahahahahah. Pitfall, you had me goin for a sec there.
    Wishful thinking on my part I guess. I was just throwing that out there.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I'm curious, how is the Global Shipping Program a disaster? I have shipped several items with it so far and haven't had any issues. It seems to be to be a better solution for shipping high dollar sets because all I worry about is getting it to the distribution center (which just so happens to be about 2 hours away from me in Northern Kentucky). Is there something I'm missing?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I don't think there is a problem at all. As I said before, I had success using it. The problem is when someone purchases the set and doesn't like the shipping cost and associated taxes that they have to pay and doesn't want the set after all.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    So is 10% lego magazine coupon + double VIP points about as good as it will get for Palace Cinema or Sydney Opera House?
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 88
    PC does not qualify for 10% discount
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    Neither does SOH ...
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    jcb193 said:

    So is 10% lego magazine coupon + double VIP points about as good as it will get for Palace Cinema or Sydney Opera House?

    Wow, a real life Troglodyte ;)

    FollowsClosely
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    Farmer_John said:


    In short, we (Brickset Forum) may be influencing the EOL dates to some degree...

    I have always believed in that at some extent.

  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    Pitfall69 said:

    jcb193 said:

    So is 10% lego magazine coupon + double VIP points about as good as it will get for Palace Cinema or Sydney Opera House?

    Wow, a real life Troglodyte ;)

    Haha, sorry. I haven't bought a lego set at a lego store for regular price in a long time....apologies.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    jcb193 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    jcb193 said:

    So is 10% lego magazine coupon + double VIP points about as good as it will get for Palace Cinema or Sydney Opera House?

    Wow, a real life Troglodyte ;)

    Haha, sorry. I haven't bought a lego set at a lego store for regular price in a long time....apologies.
    Ha. What I meant was that Lego is not offering anymore discounts on exclusives. Your 10% off coupon is useless on these items.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited September 2013
    The 10% coupon is now basically useless for any larger set. In fact, I was at the local Lego store two days ago and asked for a second lego magazine for my kids. The clerk handed me one and I was surprised to see that it had a 10% off coupon on the back (they used to only send those the home addresses). The fact that the stores only have catalogs with 10% off coupons say it all...
    Pitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I am amazed at the number of sets TLG is offering these days. I think there is a record number of licensed sets, "exclusive" sets, and just sets in general. Furthermore, I haven't heard of many sets being retired in awhile. It's almost like TLG is trying to saturate the market. This can only be bad news from a reseller's point of view. It seems like this approach would be difficult for TLG as there is no real hurry for anyone to purchase their products. Toss in TLG eliminating the old incentives for larger sets and the message from TLG smacks of desperation in my opinion...JMO.
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    On the other hand though, limited editions like the 41999 are appearing
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited October 2013
    I always feel like nothing is ever going to retire at this point in the year, and there's no end in site. But by January, it'll be a different story.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    prevere said:

    I always feel like nothing is ever going to retire at this point in the year, and there's no end in site. But by January, it'll be a different story.

    I feel the same way. I think there is a fine line between what TLG purposely discontinues and what they simply let run out of stock due to holiday purchasing. Either way, between the double VIP points, promos, and pure holiday shopping and the love of LEGO, you typically see most stock depleted this time of year for the next couple to three months.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    I say you will start seeing things that are going EOL start selling out mid to late November and finish up around beginning of January.

    Does anyone know what the status is on Unimog? Is that going to stick around for another year, or is it done this year?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,332
    ^ it better be done this year.
    vitreolum
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited October 2013
    I would guess the Unimog is gone this year, but I thought the same thing about FB a few years ago.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    The excavator hung around past Christmas . . .
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    gmpirate said:

    The excavator hung around past Christmas . . .

    True, it did. Due mostly to other TRU, with the rppr actually being the rrp, but again that was before their pricing games and I doubt that they have that many sitting in their warehouse, but it will be interesting to see what happens if they have a ton to sell still.
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair Member Posts: 2,704
    I'm planning to buy all the Modular Buildings that are still available but I need to know how long does a Modular Building last before is discontinued?

    I only own Pet Shop #10218 and Mini Modulars #10230, and have a £500 approx budget a year so how many Modulars are worth buying each year with some money left over for other sets.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    @Adzbadboy, you have been on these forums for a while now, and active, in this very thread.

    There is no way you are in the dark about the retiring habits of modulars. What's your angle?
    vitreolumDadTheCableGuyLegoFanTexaspiratemania7Pitfall69jasor
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    @Adzbadboy - Not sure about the others, but it's pretty clear the FB will never retire.
    LegoFanTexasAdeelZubair
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    FB is supposed to be gone this winter.
    Of course, that has been said for the past three winters, but it sounds like it is really going this winter (based on a few sources that are in this thread)
    Perhaps GE as well, but that is just the normal rampant speculation.
    I guess we will know once it says either retiring soon, or sold out and stays that way for 30 days on LEGO shop at home
    LegoFanTexas
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    As bad as things may seem for resellers, both 6858 and 6865 retired over the past couple weeks and both are already selling in the $20 range on ebay here in the states. Not bad considering they were discounted in the $9-10 range just a month or two ago. I see these both hitting $30 by Christmas.

    As much as I want to scale back on reselling, every year many sets still continue to do well once they're retired. Each year I try to talk myself out of reselling, yet every January and February retired sets still seem to rise in value nicely. This past year it was DA, Hogwarts Castle, Maersk Train, the 2 POTC ships, IS, and a few others. When I saw how good they did I became optimistic again and here I am still in the game. However these sets have not done quite as well as retired sets from 2011 did (ex: Emerald Night and Imperial Flagship), so I do believe Lego reselling is becoming less and less profitable each year due to new resellers, etc. However it still seems to be fairly strong IMO. I just hope this January the market still holds strong and we see some nice gains from whatever sets end up retiring this holiday season.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    Am I crazy for being this optimistic again this year??
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Good catch...I didn't see that #6858 was gone. I did notice that #6865 was...and appreciating nicely. It will be interesting to see if Catwoman and/or Captain America are released in other sets in the near term. I think that will be the driver for these particular sets.
  • Tevans333Tevans333 Member Posts: 152
    RichB said:

    As bad as things may seem for resellers, both 6858 and 6865 retired over the past couple weeks and both are already selling in the $20 range on ebay here in the states. Not bad considering they were discounted in the $9-10 range just a month or two ago.

    Yeah, but after fees and shipping, are you really making anything to make it worthwhile?
    pharmjodPitfall69
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