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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    edited September 2013
    Was that scene supposed to be in the movie? Reminds me a lot of when Kenner was trying to do their first wave of Star Wars figures.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    I'm holding just about everything another year. There do not appear to be any promising replacements for QAR or IS on the EOL horizon. MMV is probably as good a standard as any to measure ROI for current "obvious" winners: Helms Deep, #9450, etc. Not saying they'll be identical, just similarly slow in my opinion.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Even though the new Hobbit movie is coming out in December; I think it is a little too early to start selling Lord of the Rings/The Hobbit sets unless you are selling sets that are sold out and/or minifigures. I'm waiting for the 3rd movie.

    I think the time is ripe to unload my POTC ships. I'm not sure exactly when the new movie is coming out and Lego might rehash the Black Pearl.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    edited September 2013
    #9469 Gandalf Arrives is the only sold out set from LOTR so far. I bet another wave of clearance is due for the rest of Wave 1 come end of December. That would leave Wave 1 as a good seller for mid-2014 / Xmas 2014.

    And hey, remember that Chima freebie "CHI Battles 70113" set Lego included with every order back in the summer. You should all be so excited that it is sold out. Haha.
    FollowsClosely
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Pitfall69 said:

    I think the time is ripe to unload my POTC ships. I'm not sure exactly when the new movie is coming out and Lego might rehash the Black Pearl.

    I was thinking the same thing. Also, what if a non-licensed pirate theme is released with a large ship or two? That could also detract from QAR and BP aftermarket prices.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    ^It still is $25 (and has been for a while).
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I had 7 of those Chima sets. I just gave them to co-workers. Not worth the time to pack and ship.
  • AmbroiseAmbroise FranceMember Posts: 14
    prevere said:

    #9469 Gandalf Arrives is the only sold out set from LOTR so far. I bet another wave of clearance is due for the rest of Wave 1 come end of December. That would leave Wave 1 as a good seller for mid-2014 / Xmas 2014.

    I though #9472 Weathertop and #9476 Orc Forge were also done, but as they are still sold by Amazon.eu, this may not be completely the case. I wonder why there are so many left around when [email protected] has no more.

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    They are all pretty much done. Some have just run out sooner than others. Seems Target has finally run out of Orc Forge online as well.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    ^Right on. Weathertop. Forgot about that guy. Sold out. Orc Forge still has the "temporary out" tag on it. So jury is still out on that one being done or lasting to support the tower for awhile.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Ambroise said:

    prevere said:

    #9469 Gandalf Arrives is the only sold out set from LOTR so far. I bet another wave of clearance is due for the rest of Wave 1 come end of December. That would leave Wave 1 as a good seller for mid-2014 / Xmas 2014.

    I though #9472 Weathertop and #9476 Orc Forge were also done, but as they are still sold by Amazon.eu, this may not be completely the case. I wonder why there are so many left around when [email protected] has no more.

    I was implying that these would be gone by the start of the holiday season as well. Still, I'm going to wait until the next movie comes out for most of the sets.

  • ElbazElbaz Member Posts: 7
    The DeLorean now shows as "temporarily out of stock" on [email protected] Any thoughts on how temporary this might be?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Elbaz said:

    The DeLorean now shows as "temporarily out of stock" on [email protected] Any thoughts on how temporary this might be?

    TLG did a much better job of getting into stock everywhere right out of the gate. Time will tell if that holds, or if demand runs away from supply.

    I'm comfortable that this is a set that will be made for a while, probably 2 years at least.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Looks like the DeLorean will do well at xmas like minecraft last year.
    FollowsClosely
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    SiE said:

    Looks like the DeLorean will do well at xmas like minecraft last year.

    Doubt it, BTTF is nowhere near the minecraft craze.
    FollowsClosely
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    Elbaz said:

    The DeLorean now shows as "temporarily out of stock" on [email protected] Any thoughts on how temporary this might be?

    I wonder why some sets show "temp out of stock" with no restocking date, while others do.

    And I'd really like an email alert option when something is back in stock. That's a pretty basic feature that is really lacking on the site for a company as large as TLG is.

  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    prevere said:

    Elbaz said:

    The DeLorean now shows as "temporarily out of stock" on [email protected] Any thoughts on how temporary this might be?

    I wonder why some sets show "temp out of stock" with no restocking date, while others do.

    And I'd really like an email alert option when something is back in stock. That's a pretty basic feature that is really lacking on the site for a company as large as TLG is.

    Oh c'mon, cut them some slacks, they are only the 2nd largest toy manufacturer in the world :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    ^What do they need pants for?
    BumblepantsmadforLEGOLegoManiaccFollowsCloselyLegoFanTexasDougoutrancorbaitmargotGothamConstructionCo
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    vitreolum said:

    SiE said:

    Looks like the DeLorean will do well at xmas like minecraft last year.

    Doubt it, BTTF is nowhere near the minecraft craze.
    Predictions on How Long New Minecraft Sets Will Be in Stock: go!
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^What do they need pants for?

    Dunno, why do the supposedly underwater alien species need to wear long pants or robes (sigh) ? Aren't those dead weight in their native habitat ?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    ^Possibly, but bigger question is why Donald Duck wraps a towel around his waist when he gets out of the shower? He normally doesn't wear any pants...er...I mean slacks.

    BTTF is a head scratcher. I just saw another commercial featuring the Delorean. Michael J.Fox has a new tv show coming out. I still don't think it will do as well as Minecraft because many people under 25 probably have never seen the movies.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited September 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Possibly, but bigger question is why Donald Duck wraps a towel around his waist when he gets out of the shower? He normally doesn't wear any pants...er...I mean slacks.

    Perhaps his ... feathers... shrink after a cold shower and he is embarassed to show them off ?
    Pitfall69 said:


    BTTF is a head scratcher. ....

    because many people under 25 probably have never seen the movies.

    Is this really true ? BTTF is one of those movies shown in excessive repeats over several cable chanels. These teenagers must have caught at least one of those repeats. Perhaps this is not enough to make them a fan, but at least make them aware of it.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    ^ For many children lord of the rings is too old already and many haven't seen them... following that BTTF is ancient.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    ^With the amount of times each BTTF movie is on cable nowadays, I think more have seen it than you realize. But yeah, it ain't no minecraft.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,788
    Pitfall69 said:

    ......

    BTTF is a head scratcher. I just saw another commercial featuring the Delorean. Michael J.Fox has a new tv show coming out. I still don't think it will do as well as Minecraft because many people under 25 probably have never seen the movies.

    That and the price of the set, IMO, is a bit much for a vehicle and two figures regardless.. and while minecraft is overpriced, it is trumped by the kid begging to get it, and I do not see BTTF the same way. You will either buy it regardless of price or not buy it regardless of price, but I do not see much 'kid pressure' for this one like the minecraft sets.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited September 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    BTTF is a head scratcher. I just saw another commercial featuring the Delorean. Michael J.Fox has a new tv show coming out. I still don't think it will do as well as Minecraft because many people under 25 probably have never seen the movies.

    That is a tragedy. My one year old will be introduced to the 80's greatest hits as soon as he is old enough to say "Goonies".

    Maybe I'm just getting old, but I find that many movies today are lacking that special ingredient that makes them magical and memorable. What has been gained in effects and animation seems to have come at a cost of great story telling. I really liked the movie Super 8 that was out a couple of years ago - mostly bc it reminded me of the movies I watched coming up.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,788
    CircleK said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    BTTF is a head scratcher. I just saw another commercial featuring the Delorean. Michael J.Fox has a new tv show coming out. I still don't think it will do as well as Minecraft because many people under 25 probably have never seen the movies.

    That is a tragedy. My one year old will be introduced to the 80's greatest hits as soon as he is old enough to say "Goonies".

    Maybe I'm just getting old, but I find that many movies today are lacking that special ingredient that makes them magical and memorable. What has been gained in effects and animation seems to have come at a cost of great story telling. I really liked the movie Super 8 that was out a couple of years ago - mostly bc it reminded me of the movies I watched coming up.
    That because older movies were not as simplified as they have to be these days. You have to spell out everything or heaven forbid some people may not get it, same with comedies.
    That and movies rely too much on special effects and not enough on story due to the crowd who cannot pay attention apparently unless something is exploding in their visual range.
    While there are some movies that are an exception to this, sadly it is not the norm any more.
    For example, I doubt Alien would work today, it would be viewed as 'too dull'. And this is why Abrams and Bay are still making movies.
    I weep for the future.
  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    I agree that many current movies rely more heavily on special effects than the art of storytelling, but there are still wonderful movies released every year - they just aren't your blockbusters that receive the majority of the spotlight. Add in the growth of independent movies and/or foreign films and its a great time to be able to create a library of movies that can continue to expand and grow as time goes by.

    I think the key for kids is exposing them to a variety of films early on so they can later appreciate films like Alien when they are old enough. If they've only been exposed to recent films then the pacing of older films will be too slow.

    Besides, the Lego film is going to great (please let this be true).
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    CircleK said:

    Maybe I'm just getting old, but I find that many movies today are lacking that special ingredient that makes them magical and memorable.

    I agree. Unfortunately, though, I think that special ingredient is nostalgia.
    EKSam
  • cardgeniuscardgenius Member Posts: 153
    I wouldn't say BTTF is that unknown. My brother is 17 and knew exactly what it was when the set was announced. He even had few of his non Lego friends interested in it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    ^Didn't say it was unknown. Ask anyone from 5-25 what Minecraft is and there would be a resounding "of course" Then ask the same question about Back to the Future a year ago.
    TheLoneTensorFollowsCloselymadforLEGO
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    ^In the new GE BTTF commercial they "correctly" say Gigawatt. I prefer "jigawatt" so to speak. Fake science has ruined me!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    prevere said:

    ^In the new GE BTTF commercial they "correctly" say Gigawatt. I prefer "jigawatt" so to speak. Fake science has ruined me!

    That was the commercial I saw last night.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    ^The Matrix GE commerical was pretty good too.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    ^Ha. I guess GE is trying to bring back nostalgia. I used to work for GE's Steam Turbine Division in NY as a Mechanical Engineer and for their Aerospace Division in Ohio.
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^What do they need pants for?

    What would this thread be without @Pitfall69?... :-P

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    At least GE spelled shield correctly in the commercial.
    Pitfall69prevere
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055

    What would this thread be without @Pitfall69?... :-P

    Less "Dickish"...

    Sorry... That door was left wide open :)

    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Oh well. Here we go again.
    pharmjod
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,963
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Didn't say it was unknown. Ask anyone from 5-25 what Minecraft is and there would be a resounding "of course" Then ask the same question about Back to the Future a year ago.

    Agreed, but going even further.. Minecraft is in the collective conscious of that age group. They imagine it, play it, talk about it. My 9 year old checked daily on the computer to see if the minecraft Xbox update was out yet. I really can not fathom a kid within our grade school that would remotely care about BTTF over minecraft. There probably are some somewhere. ;-)

    Ask a group of 6-12 year old kids what they would rather have...
    A minecraft toy or a BTTF toy.

    BTTF is nostalgic. Minecraft is current.

  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Help me, I'm inside the M25! (UK)Member Posts: 1,360
    ^ True that most kids would go for Minecraft over BTTF, but last week I went into a Lego store, I was browsing at the Cuusoo section. They had Minecraft next to BTTF, and a small boy, maybe 6 or 7, went in front of me and picked up a set and went 'Daddy, can I have this one?'. The little Timmy had picked up a BTTF set. What's more, I think the boy recognised the car as being a DeLorean too.

    Just a true example where kid chose the old over the new (in theme terms). :-) But there was something about that that made me smile inside.
  • jdylakjdylak Member Posts: 281
    Soooo... did any of those 41999's show up in stores yet or is that time coming still? Anyone watching the prices?
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406


    Just a true example where kid chose the old over the new (in theme terms). :-) But there was something about that that made me smile inside.

    Well, not everyone is into Minecraft. Or maybe he already owns 5 minecraft sets, you never know.

    He also chose the new over the old in terms of release. :P
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^^Stores should have been getting shipments since about Aug. 28, I think you would need to call your local store for availability. The ones near me got shipments on Tuesday because Monday was labor day.
  • pillpodpillpod Member Posts: 273
    If you think BTTF is a head scratcher, I wonder what your thoughts are on the first 2 cuusoo models. I'll assume that a lot of you that are around 40 years old have seen the Godfather, right? I think that's a fair comparison to 25 year olds and BTTF.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    What do you guys do when someone requests a lower value on the goods than you sold them for? Obviously to avoid import taxes?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Tell them it is illegal to do so.
    sidersddmadforLEGOFollowsCloselyspicemind
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    edited September 2013
    You could have a hard time claiming on the insurance if you put a minimal value down. It's not a good idea to do it.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    Is TB on its way? Twice now that it has appeared on the recently discontinued list and its the first time I have seen it out of stock at [email protected] since release. It has a shipping date of 19th September.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Dad said:

    Is TB on its way? Twice now that it has appeared on the recently discontinued list and its the first time I have seen it out of stock at [email protected] since release. It has a shipping date of 19th September.

    No, this has been noted several times as being around until 12/2014.
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