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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923

    Agree with @Dougout and is it me or its just people are not selling Used sets on Bricklink anymore. I check BL every few days to try to get some sets in Used as I myself sell sets in Used but its weird not to see Used sets like I did 3-4 years back.

    BL is still a small community of buyers/sellers. But I have to believe that there are simply more people using it.
  • rchaddrchadd Member Posts: 187
    How high do you think Cafe Corner and Green Grocer will go? worth keeping them for another year or so? New in Box. Unfortunately now become too valuable to consider building (for me anyway).
    FollowsClosely
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited August 2013
    Hard to predict a ceiling on those but I don't see why the slow climb shouldn't continue. Lots of new Lego fans everyday and many look at the past catalog of a theme they have just gotten into. But keep in mind, the higher they climb the smaller the target consumer.

    Quick story. At work the other day a co-worker who had purchased the Cinema Palace for his grandson stopped by and told me that his grandson loved it and had put together a small wish list for his next gift. What was on that list? Not Fire Brigade, Pet Shop or Town Hall but Cafe Corner and Green Grocer. The first thing I said was I hope he had deep pockets. When I mentioned the current value of those sets brand new he just shook his head and said that he will just have to get something else. But I am sure there are many other people who may be fortunate enough to have the disposable income to get those sets for their grandson's wish list.
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 961
    rchadd said:

    How high do you think Cafe Corner and Green Grocer will go? worth keeping them for another year or so? New in Box. Unfortunately now become too valuable to consider building (for me anyway).

    I'm not a reseller, but I can give you a potential buyer perspective. The more modulars that come out, the less inclined I am to think about spending that kind of money them. I don't have all of the currently available modulars yet, but I think there are already the makings of a substantial street scene without having to pay well over the odds for CC and GG. Also, the minute TLG comes up with a fifth corner building (assuming they do release one and don't stop after they've released a fourth) then I'll have four corners to make a block and not have to worry about getting CC to complete that particular ambition.

    That's just me, though, and I certainly don't claim to represent the majority. I just think there is enough quality out there available at RRP to not lose sleep over the two that are so hard to get.
    CCC
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Problem is CC and GG are already at prices not many can afford. Still, there will always be newcomers to this hobby that will start collecting modulars and want to add them to their collection. But the increase will be a very slow one from here on.

    Another issue is Lego will probably release some of the current expensive parts in future sets, making it easier and easier to BL them. Still that shouldn't affect sealed ones.
  • CoolsplashCoolsplash Member Posts: 935
    That I do agree with @prevere, but a lot of people do use it to hunt for good bargains. I bought both my GE and FB from BL at a total price of $140 each and apart from these 2 bought many sets at a good price in Used. But I feel the trend is changing.
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,673
    While I got a cheap MS, I have been in the market for a while for the CC and GG, but after a while I Bricklinked my own versions of each, I am really happy on how they turn out and wish I had done it sooner. Also, if I had gotten a NIB set, I may have never built it :)

    While there will always be buyers that wants the exact LEGO version, there are workarounds for those just wanted to have "that" building in their layout.

    One thing that may diminish their value is that LEGO designers starts to incorporate some of the rare/expensive pieces in their new sets, like the Dark Blue Arch in the upcoming #10235 Winter Village Market.
    Pitfall69
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Curious what color or rare part modifications you made to the CC and GG to help keep costs down. I'm thinking of BLing both.

    I also will say that our family has had tremendous fun building custom modulars through Brick City Depot and the other website (forget the name now). The Chili's restaurant was a fantastic project to collaborate on.
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    If you take a look on ebay for the CC or MS listings, some of them have the parts listed that they have substituted in the listing. Likely the same for the GG, or just substitute the GG's 1x6's for 1x4 and 1x2's.
  • PepperPepper Wisconsin, USAMember Posts: 91
    Thanks for the predictions about #10188! It sounds like I have a while left to save for it before it's gone.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    All it takes for GG, really, is a couple of parts rereleased to nosedive the used set $$, and affect the MISB money. At that point, you find out who likes fresh bricks out of a box, and who goes for just having the model.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,380
    Pepper said:

    Thanks for the predictions about #10188!

    Someone want to get that framed?
    jasorbp10030
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    will 41999 get to be a 500 dollar set or is now the time to sell.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited August 2013
    It looks like prices for #41999 have dipped slightly. A few sold today on ebay in the $420 range shipped versus $450+ a few days ago. I'm actually surprised they only dipped that much given the new supply at Lego stores today.

    It sounds like today's restock might not be the only new stock; there could be more to come, meaning even more of a price decrease. Maybe the people who sold most of their stock before today weren't so short-sighted after all.

    I'm curious to know how much of the 20,000 sets have been sold so far. I wonder if it's as little as half? In that case, maybe people who weren't lucky enough to get one for $200 might be able to get one on ebay for $300 or so after all 20,000 are sold...
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    well i had 25 of them im down to 11. and i have 10 on hold trying to decide if i needed to get those as well...anything 400 and over is fine by me
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited August 2013
    ^You're trying to decide whether or not to make $1000+ if you were to pick up the 10 you have on hold? Haha, ok. Although I guess it would noble of you to allow other people to buy them, I suppose.

    You're lucky your stores will hold those for you. The Glendale and Costa Mesa stores (So Cal) wont hold this set (although I didn't try bribing them lol).
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,770

    Not that I'm rooting for it...

    Well, the LEGO fan in me is...

    I think the DS could use an update... it has been so long since it was released (5 years) that it is due for a rehash.

    A Mark II version, a bit larger, better and more detailed minifigs, modern instructions (the current ones now show their age), and sell it for $499 with about 4,200 parts.

    I'd love them to make a new DS. But get the marketing / timing right.

    Get it out before the current one goes completely. That way, no-one starts paying silly prices for the old one when a new one is coming.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    ^ That would be a kick in the seat to anyone holding any personal stock of DS's as well as commercial stock languishing...

    It's a good question though....Has there been a precedent with Lego like that? V2.0 comes out directly before V1.0 EOLs?
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440

    will 41999 get to be a 500 dollar set or is now the time to sell.

    You're a lego store manager with access to sales figures and other inside info, shouldn't you be giving out advice rather than asking for it?

    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited August 2013
    Edit:
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    your right. Just was asking a question since I dont have much knowledge on resell trends. But i know there will be one more restock for a fact.
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    I apologize in advance for not talking about 41999,but I am just curious what people think of the WMT clearance on Weathertop ($40) and Unexpected Gathering($49). I don't have a love for either set. If I had to, I could incorporate them into a larger castle theme at some point in the future if they don't do well in reselling.

    Thanks
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Weathertop will do well if no other Ringwraiths are included in future sets. Unexpected Gathering is a fine set, but it was/is on sale a lot.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Unexpected Gathering also may well be a two year set, so it will go from Walmart this year, but be around on Amazon/[email protected]/etc. next year, so it may not have much of a future.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Isn't just about every Lego set on sale for an extended period, except for 10xxx sets?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Even 10xxx sets these days are available for multiple years, outside of 10227
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    edited August 2013
    ^ I think BoiseState means on sale=discount not (for) on sale= available.
    In any case, I think the answer for Boise is no. There are sets on perma sale, there are sets on normal on and off sales, some sporadic and some that I have never seen on sale. And I am talking of the general range not about the exclusives.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ This...

    Some sets are indeed on permanent sale, others are sometimes on sale, and others are not.

    Jabba's Palace seems to be stuck at about $95, which is where it should have been in the first place. :)

    But of course, it probably wouldn't sell as well at RRP $99, so they mark it $120 and put it "on sale" forever. :)
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I haven't payed close attention, but it seems like almost every set I've seen has been on sale locally. Then again, I have lots of Fred Meyer's in the area and they always have good sales.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Yes. We in the NW are lucky you can getfred Meyer stacking coupons on a regular basis. Thus month alone we've had 20% plus 15% early in the month and then 20% plus 10% right now. Last yewr there were some BOGO50s plus 10% These happen 7 to 10 times per year, maybe more
    BoiseState
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Yep.. The best Lego store out there IMO. They always seem to have a good collection too. They also had HP stuff after it EOL's from [email protected]
  • klatu003klatu003 Hobbiton, Shire, Middle EarthMember Posts: 725
    @dougts have you seen #79006 at Freddy? They have the other three of the wave. To stay on topic this might be the one that does a Weathertop. And yes, Fred Meyer is my favorite store for Lego and some other things.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,360
    jasor said:

    ^ That would be a kick in the seat to anyone holding any personal stock of DS's as well as commercial stock languishing...

    It's a good question though....Has there been a precedent with Lego like that? V2.0 comes out directly before V1.0 EOLs?

    Most recent example I can think of are
    AT-ATs #10178 and #8129, both were available simultaneously at [email protected] for a couple of months
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    @klatu003 I have seen #79006 in my neck of the evergreens. :-)
    @BoiseState ditto on being the best Lego store. :-)
    On topic they have all the Advent Calendars too, with the discounts stacking.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    yes, I've seen 79006 at Freddy's. I bought several of them at a couple locations earlier in the month on the 20% plus 15% coupon. Haven't looked this week however.
  • Cam_n_StuCam_n_Stu UKMember Posts: 368
    JamesJT said:

    will 41999 get to be a 500 dollar set or is now the time to sell.

    You're a lego store manager with access to sales figures and other inside info, shouldn't you be giving out advice rather than asking for it?

    Sorry, am I reading this right? You are a LEGO Store Manager and TLG are OK with you participating in the secondary market?

    (I know my contract explicitly prohibits this type of behaviour in my line of work due to conflict of interest and PR headaches it has the potential to create)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    (the real) VW Bus officially halted.

    http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20130825/OEM01/308269985/venerable-vw-bus-bites-the-dust-at-63#axzz2d4YvUApP

    I wonder how this will affect Lego's production of the model and it's subsequent value.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    roxio said:

    jasor said:

    ^ That would be a kick in the seat to anyone holding any personal stock of DS's as well as commercial stock languishing...

    It's a good question though....Has there been a precedent with Lego like that? V2.0 comes out directly before V1.0 EOLs?

    Most recent example I can think of are
    AT-ATs #10178 and #8129, both were available simultaneously at [email protected] for a couple of months
    AH! Thanks for that example. I would bet that #8129 didnt eat into #10178 too bad, since they would attract a slightly different crowd. One being motorized, and the other just sitting there. hahaha.

    If TLG rereleased a DS 2.0, it would have to be updated, and offer some updated building techniques/play features/etc along with new minifigs, of course. I would imagine they could/would reduce the pcs count for the same pricepoint, or inflate the design a bit for more $$, as stated above somewhere.

    If TLG did that, with the glut of DS's out there right now on reseller shelves...I'm betting a reseller would definitely be the one at a disadvantage there. Of course, it's all hypothetical, and it may be 10 years before the next DS comes out (if ever) after the 10 years the original will still be out.... :P
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,153

    ^ This...

    Some sets are indeed on permanent sale, others are sometimes on sale, and others are not.

    Jabba's Palace seems to be stuck at about $95, which is where it should have been in the first place. :)

    But of course, it probably wouldn't sell as well at RRP $99, so they mark it $120 and put it "on sale" forever. :)

    That has been my thinking for a while now, that LEGO is putting larger RRP on some of their sets as many sites drop them for a 'sale', which makes people subconsciously think they are getting a good deal. This was seen with latest Slave 1 and also Sith Infiltrator I think
    LegoFanTexas
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    edited August 2013



    That has been my thinking for a while now, that LEGO is putting larger RRP on some of their sets as many sites drop them for a 'sale', which makes people subconsciously think they are getting a good deal. This was seen with latest Slave 1 and also Sith Infiltrator I think

    Bummer...How long before we start seeing "Lego Outlet Stores" where we can get "50% off everyday" lego sets.

    Fire Brigade for $300!!??? Oh wait, it's 50% off. Whew.

    PoochyLegoFanTexaspharmjodYellowcastle
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    jasor said:

    roxio said:

    jasor said:

    ^ That would be a kick in the seat to anyone holding any personal stock of DS's as well as commercial stock languishing...

    It's a good question though....Has there been a precedent with Lego like that? V2.0 comes out directly before V1.0 EOLs?

    Most recent example I can think of are
    AT-ATs #10178 and #8129, both were available simultaneously at [email protected] for a couple of months
    AH! Thanks for that example. I would bet that #8129 didnt eat into #10178 too bad, since they would attract a slightly different crowd. One being motorized, and the other just sitting there. hahaha.

    If TLG rereleased a DS 2.0, it would have to be updated, and offer some updated building techniques/play features/etc along with new minifigs, of course. I would imagine they could/would reduce the pcs count for the same pricepoint, or inflate the design a bit for more $$, as stated above somewhere.

    If TLG did that, with the glut of DS's out there right now on reseller shelves...I'm betting a reseller would definitely be the one at a disadvantage there. Of course, it's all hypothetical, and it may be 10 years before the next DS comes out (if ever) after the 10 years the original will still be out.... :P
    Mostly because the DS is a great set, no matter how many re-releases they do, or what they add to it, the original will still likely command a premium. DS 2.0 would hurt from DS 3.0, but DS 1.0 will still always be the one to get.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^Museum Break In? Rancor Pit?? Weathertop??? That's a long list indeed.

    To be fair though, Rancor Pit has very few "filler" parts. And the Rancor.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439


    That has been my thinking for a while now, that LEGO is putting larger RRP on some of their sets as many sites drop them for a 'sale', which makes people subconsciously think they are getting a good deal. This was seen with latest Slave 1 and also Sith Infiltrator I think

    Here in my country Lego Hungária even organizes 'central' sales for ITDs. Every spring and autumn there are a few sets that ITDs can order from Lego at a discount and they in turn have to sell them at a 20-30% discount, too.

    This spring it was #60007 High Speed Chase and #70002 Lennox' Lion Attack. (And maybe 1-2 others.) Before them in the last year (or year and a half) I remember #9490, #4440 and #7346 getting the same treatment.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    tensor said:

    jasor said:

    roxio said:

    jasor said:

    ^ That would be a kick in the seat to anyone holding any personal stock of DS's as well as commercial stock languishing...

    It's a good question though....Has there been a precedent with Lego like that? V2.0 comes out directly before V1.0 EOLs?

    Most recent example I can think of are
    AT-ATs #10178 and #8129, both were available simultaneously at [email protected] for a couple of months
    AH! Thanks for that example. I would bet that #8129 didnt eat into #10178 too bad, since they would attract a slightly different crowd. One being motorized, and the other just sitting there. hahaha.

    If TLG rereleased a DS 2.0, it would have to be updated, and offer some updated building techniques/play features/etc along with new minifigs, of course. I would imagine they could/would reduce the pcs count for the same pricepoint, or inflate the design a bit for more $$, as stated above somewhere.

    If TLG did that, with the glut of DS's out there right now on reseller shelves...I'm betting a reseller would definitely be the one at a disadvantage there. Of course, it's all hypothetical, and it may be 10 years before the next DS comes out (if ever) after the 10 years the original will still be out.... :P
    Mostly because the DS is a great set, no matter how many re-releases they do, or what they add to it, the original will still likely command a premium. DS 2.0 would hurt from DS 3.0, but DS 1.0 will still always be the one to get.
    If you are a "set" collector, yep...If a kid wants the DS, and there are two versions out...that kid is going to want the new one.
    CCC
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited August 2013
    It may just be me but the original death star didn't do anything for me. It's a big, dark gray, blocky circle with some neon green sticking out of it. I know it is a good representation of the source material but to me it's just plain boring. At least with the current one you see a multitude of scenes from the movie.
    CCC
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    jasor said:

    tensor said:

    jasor said:

    roxio said:

    jasor said:

    ^ That would be a kick in the seat to anyone holding any personal stock of DS's as well as commercial stock languishing...

    It's a good question though....Has there been a precedent with Lego like that? V2.0 comes out directly before V1.0 EOLs?

    Most recent example I can think of are
    AT-ATs #10178 and #8129, both were available simultaneously at [email protected] for a couple of months
    AH! Thanks for that example. I would bet that #8129 didnt eat into #10178 too bad, since they would attract a slightly different crowd. One being motorized, and the other just sitting there. hahaha.

    If TLG rereleased a DS 2.0, it would have to be updated, and offer some updated building techniques/play features/etc along with new minifigs, of course. I would imagine they could/would reduce the pcs count for the same pricepoint, or inflate the design a bit for more $$, as stated above somewhere.

    If TLG did that, with the glut of DS's out there right now on reseller shelves...I'm betting a reseller would definitely be the one at a disadvantage there. Of course, it's all hypothetical, and it may be 10 years before the next DS comes out (if ever) after the 10 years the original will still be out.... :P
    Mostly because the DS is a great set, no matter how many re-releases they do, or what they add to it, the original will still likely command a premium. DS 2.0 would hurt from DS 3.0, but DS 1.0 will still always be the one to get.
    If you are a "set" collector, yep...If a kid wants the DS, and there are two versions out...that kid is going to want the new one.
    True, though it'll be hard to top the current DS with one that is even more playable.
    Renny said:

    It may just be me but the original death star didn't do anything for me. It's a big, dark gray, blocky circle with some neon green sticking out of it. I know it is a good representation of the source material but to me it's just plain boring. At least with the current one you see a multitude of scenes from the movie.

    Heh, and there's some confusion. I'm assuming you're referring to #10143 which is actually Death Star II, which came out before #10188, but represents the second death star chronologically from the movies. So technically the current DS is actually 2.0, subsequent to Death Star II.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^I just refer to them as Death Star I (#10188) and Death Star II (#10143). I love them both for what they are, first being a playset and the second being a display set.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Sorry, I was referring to the sets by release order, the original to me being #10143 :)
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    edited August 2013

    ^ This...

    Some sets are indeed on permanent sale, others are sometimes on sale, and others are not.

    Jabba's Palace seems to be stuck at about $95, which is where it should have been in the first place. :)

    But of course, it probably wouldn't sell as well at RRP $99, so they mark it $120 and put it "on sale" forever. :)



    This is so true, the Seaside house #7346 immediately comes to mind. Lego rrp 49.99 but currently sold by everyone for $39.99 and in some cases for $34.99. (unless you shop at RippofRUs then you are out of luck) :-)) If you do a side by side comparison the Beach house #4996 is so much bigger and visually appealing( imho) and its rrp was 34.99.
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty CanadaMember Posts: 547
    What's the status of 10xxx sets expected to retire this year?

    Here's a list of sets that haven't officially retired yet in order of release date up to 2012:
    2008 #10188 Death Star
    2009 #10197 Fire Brigade
    2010 #10211 Grand Emporium
    2010 #10214 Tower Bridge
    2011 #10218 Pet Shop
    2011 #10222 Winter Village Post Office
    2011 #10220 Volkswagen T1 Camper Van
    2011 #10221 Super Star Destroyer
    2012 #10230 Mini Modulars
    2012 #10223 Kingdoms Joust
    2012 #10224 Town Hall
    2012 #10225 R2-D2
    2012 #10226 Sopwith Camel
    2012 #10227 B-Wing Starfighter
    2012 #10228 Haunted House
    2012 #10229 Winter Village Cottage

    I'm pretty sure #10220 is done and not coming back. Now that SOH is out, does tower bridge fade away this fall? What about the T1 Camper van? My other observation is that there are a lot of sets out living the B-Wing if it truly is retiring.
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