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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    "So surely there is little resale value in mindstorms."

    Not necessarily. Timing is everything. Some resellers made a nice profit as soon as the NXT 2.0 was no longer available at retail, but the buyer demand spiked, then leveled off. Admittedly, timing the purchase and resale would not have been easy. Also, I've lucked up on a few old sets/parts for next to nothing at yard sales, and there is demand for those; they have resale value.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    ^ Same here. And I felt the same way with 1.5, and 1.0
    Never enough hours in the day
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890

    Thanks for the link to EV3.

    I asked before, what is the future value of 2 when 3 is so much better in every regard (except price of course)?

    I have no idea. I can't believe new 2.0 sets have been selling for $400+ the last few months. I can only imagine the people buying those don't realize the new 3.0 is coming out soon for a (mere!) $350. Unless 2.0 ends up having some 'feature/bug' that makes it more hackable in some way, or ends up being able to do something that 3.0 can't, it makes no sense to me that anyone would want 2.0 at all anymore, unless it was significantly cheaper.

    My logical side tells me prices for 2.0 should fall off a cliff once 3.0 is released and people realize it. But who knows. I just wish they'd open up the pre-order for 3.0 already!
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,119
    I see a lot of the mindstorm sets for sale on the Goodwill auction site and i was really suprised how much they get bid up to and how many people are bidding on them.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    It is because they are 'sold out' right now, once you see the 3.0 announced officially on the site you will probably hear a collective cry in anguish, unless these people know about 3.0think that 2.0 is still better than 3.0 coming out soon.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    Thanos75 said:

    I see a lot of the mindstorm sets for sale on the Goodwill auction site and i was really suprised how much they get bid up to and how many people are bidding on them.

    The shipping is always the killer on Goodwill. I seriously question how high some of that stuff goes for, with such vague descriptions. Just sayin'.
    margot
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,119
    edited August 2013
    I was watching it last week when they had a battle over the Cafe Corner and a Green Grocer. The Cafe Corner looked like it was all there and it had the box and intsructions and sold for $706. The Green Grocer also had its box but didnt see any instructions and it sold for $535. I have won a couple of things on there and there has always been a suprise or two in the box. Its certainly a gamble .
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    ^ IIRC, the same person won both auctions. The CC box actually appears to contain piece for MS. I couldn't quite tell whether it also contains CC pieces as well. Assuming it does, that $706 would be a steal.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    edited August 2013
    ^I emailed them about that green grocer, and they told me how many bags were in the box, and it was actually more than what originally came in the box. So I was concerned about what might be in there.
  • PepperPepper Wisconsin, USAMember Posts: 91
    I was wondering if you guys had any idea (even just a guess) about when #10188 will EOL? I've been away from this thread for a while, and just read the last couple of pages, but I don't see any discussion about the Death Star anywhere. I would love to buy a copy of it before it goes, but probably won't have the funds for a few more months, and I was wondering if anyone had any guess if it will survive the holidays, because I probably won't be able to afford it until sometime this winter, but I really don't want to miss it by a month or two and have to pay $600+ for it right after EOL when I could have gotten it for <$400.
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Even if it retires, there's no way DS goes to $600 in two months.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Latest info I have heard is at least thru Dec 2014.
    Pepper
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    vitreolum said:

    Even if it retires, there's no way DS goes to $600 in two months.

    Yep plenty have bought them for $300 and the weak will donk them off for $400 with free shipping on ebay.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    DS will be around until 12/2014 at least, that much has been confirmed by multiple sources.

    It continues to be one of TLG's best selling large sets.
    Pepper
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    The more y'all talk about lesser-known auction sites, the more traffic you're driving to their site. More traffic means more competing bidders, means you're making it less likely you can score something on the cheap. Just saying! No offense intended!
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    my sources dec. 2015 and it wil be replaced by a new large star wars set based off of episode 7
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    also do you see set 41999 hitting 550 plus by christmas or is 450 to 475 its limit
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 999
    ^ Yup, throw up another sign ;)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Finally, I was hoping we could talk about the DS again. When a couple pages go by and its not mentioned I get a little antsy too.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Not that I'm rooting for it...

    Well, the LEGO fan in me is...

    I think the DS could use an update... it has been so long since it was released (5 years) that it is due for a rehash.

    A Mark II version, a bit larger, better and more detailed minifigs, modern instructions (the current ones now show their age), and sell it for $499 with about 4,200 parts.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    ^The duality of the fan/reseller is a tricky thing. In a way I have really not enjoyed the reselling part, because I want to rip open every box and build, but at the same time buying something and flipping it for a profit is thrilling....an obsession I might say. I have a ISD #6211 whispering to me "build me...build me...." And I will say out loud, "I'm sorry you are $300 dollars." Edgar Allan Poe-ish type of stuff occurring in my house.
    margotLegoFanTexasFollowsCloselyjasor
  • LegoManiaccLegoManiacc Member Posts: 116
    ^hopefully not the John Cusack version, I couldn't stand more than 5 min of that
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    Well as long as you don't have a Monkey's Paw in your house you should be ok. I can imagine you petting that thing and wishing UCS MF would come back and you will have Galidor banging on your front door. The horror!!!
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    ^probably more than a few of those hidden under floor boards.
    Pitfall69
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Galidor-my sleeper pick
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I have a 41999 that I want to open... Never built a technic set and it looks fun. But it's just worth too much for me to open.
    LegoFanTexasdougtsBumblepants
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    Trenth said:

    Galidor-my sleeper pick

    Better sleep with one eye open.

    Trenth
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162

    I have a 41999 that I want to open... Never built a technic set and it looks fun. But it's just worth too much for me to open.

    It just looks at you with those big blue pieces and assures you it will be the best build you've ever had.

    ok my personification of LEGO bricks is starting to creep me out, someone stop me please.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I have a 41999 that I want to open... Never built a technic set and it looks fun. But it's just worth too much for me to open.

    ^ This... Just sold 2 more for $450 each, will sell the last 2 when it hits $500, probably in two weeks. :)

    For that kind of money, I can buy a LOT of other LEGO sets...

    Lets see, for $500, I can buy... just about every other current Technic set on the market.

    Nuts, huh?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Trenth said:

    ^The duality of the fan/reseller is a tricky thing. In a way I have really not enjoyed the reselling part, because I want to rip open every box and build, but at the same time buying something and flipping it for a profit is thrilling....an obsession I might say. I have a ISD #6211 whispering to me "build me...build me...." And I will say out loud, "I'm sorry you are $300 dollars." Edgar Allan Poe-ish type of stuff occurring in my house.

    I miss just building for the sake of building, without worrying about what sets will be worth in a few years.

    I remember building #10212 - UCS Imperial Shuttle. What a set, I was very impressed with it and loved every minute of building it. I bought it at the LEGO store back in 2011 without really thinking too much about what it might be worth in the future, it was just a really cool set that I wanted to display.

    Now... I have yet to build UCS B-Wing, I had planned to, after all I got one for $99 on May 4th, but now that it is gone, what happens when it is $300? Do I still want to build it?

    Frankly, that takes some of the fun out of LEGO. :(
    rachdanonHandBuiltLego
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Yep.. If prices get to $500 I'll sell. Want to get Arkum Asylum, Fire Brigade, and one of the other modulars. Not bad for $199.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 999

    I have a 41999 that I want to open... Never built a technic set and it looks fun. But it's just worth too much for me to open.

    Buy its big brother, they are around for $150 or so.

  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    edited August 2013

    Frankly, that takes some of the fun out of LEGO. :(

    Told ya so ;)
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited August 2013

    Trenth said:

    ^The duality of the fan/reseller is a tricky thing. In a way I have really not enjoyed the reselling part, because I want to rip open every box and build, but at the same time buying something and flipping it for a profit is thrilling....an obsession I might say. I have a ISD #6211 whispering to me "build me...build me...." And I will say out loud, "I'm sorry you are $300 dollars." Edgar Allan Poe-ish type of stuff occurring in my house.

    I miss just building for the sake of building, without worrying about what sets will be worth in a few years.

    I remember building #10212 - UCS Imperial Shuttle. What a set, I was very impressed with it and

    Frankly, that takes some of the fun out of LEGO. :(
    Really?

    Honestly I think it's sad that people have to monetize every single thing they do in life. Sure if your struggling to put food on the table and keep a roof over your head than you have no choice, but if not than live a little and stop being such a penny pincher.

    Don't get me wrong, I think that it's important for everyone to budget, but there are some things in life we can afford to do just for the fact that we love to do them, not just because it makes financial sense.
    rachdanon
  • jdylakjdylak Member Posts: 281
    juggles7 said:

    The more y'all talk about lesser-known auction sites, the more traffic you're driving to their site. More traffic means more competing bidders, means you're making it less likely you can score something on the cheap. Just saying! No offense intended!

    Ebay is the biggest of the big and I ALWAYS find good on there. Everyone knows about ebay but look t my last buy. The one before that was a box of pieces that built TONS of old space sets. The one before that, $80 bought me all the Kingdoms sets (minus MVR) PLUS Kings Castle, Knights Castle, and the 3 big Forestmen sets. Deals can be had easily on the biggest of sites if you know what to look for.

    Goodwill site? I don't even bother. I used to browse but the prices went way to high for the collector in me.

    Ever notice the Seattle Goodwill? They ALWAYS have TONS of lots on ebay. Lots of people in the Seattle area must really unload their Lego.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    Trenth said:

    ^The duality of the fan/reseller is a tricky thing. In a way I have really not enjoyed the reselling part, because I want to rip open every box and build, but at the same time buying something and flipping it for a profit is thrilling....an obsession I might say. I have a ISD #6211 whispering to me "build me...build me...." And I will say out loud, "I'm sorry you are $300 dollars." Edgar Allan Poe-ish type of stuff occurring in my house.

    I miss just building for the sake of building, without worrying about what sets will be worth in a few years.

    I remember building #10212 - UCS Imperial Shuttle. What a set, I was very impressed with it and loved every minute of building it. I bought it at the LEGO store back in 2011 without really thinking too much about what it might be worth in the future, it was just a really cool set that I wanted to display.

    Now... I have yet to build UCS B-Wing, I had planned to, after all I got one for $99 on May 4th, but now that it is gone, what happens when it is $300? Do I still want to build it?

    Frankly, that takes some of the fun out of LEGO. :(
    Sell the B-Wing. I built mine but just sold it for about what I paid for it. It's a decent looking model, but kind of meh when compared to the IS. I'll eventually sell the IS, but it will hurt a little.



  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Ill eat my underwear if the B-Wing gets to $300 in the next few years.
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Ill eat my underwear if the B-Wing gets to $300 in the next few years.

    :) Unless you're a Victoria Secret model, I really don't want to see that. :)
    dougts
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Basta said:

    Really?

    Honestly I think it's sad that people have to monetize every single thing they do in life. Sure if your struggling to put food on the table and keep a roof over your head than you have no choice, but if not than live a little and stop being such a penny pincher.

    In fairness, this *is* what I do for a living. :)

    That being said, either way it comes down to the same thing...

    It matters not what you pay for something, it could have been free, all that matters is, "would you buy it and build it today for what it is worth today?".

    The fact is, #41999 is worth $450 today. Would I walk into a LEGO store and buy the set to build for $450? Not a chance...

    So why would I keep one for that price?

    Now, if I had already built it, that is another story. The UCS IS I have now is used and built, and thus worth about what I paid for it. For that price, I'm happy with where it sits.

    If it passes $500 used, it might end up leaving... maybe... I rather do like that model. :) But I can always replace it with something new, that is part of the fun!
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I build 10-15 sets and put them on display.. Once I get bored with them, I sell them all and keep the figs and use the money to buy new sets. I wish I had room to keep and display everything, but this way works.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited August 2013
    @LegoFanTexas I get that and if it's purely business and no pleasure than that's fine.

    I really was commenting about you trying to decide if you should build the B-Wing, which you paid $100 for and If you sold it today you may make what, $60 after costs, maybe? To me as someone who resells and is a fan, there really would be no question (financially any way) if I would build it or not. $60 now or even $200 in 3-5 years I'd still build over sell all day long.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Oh, to be sure, for $160 I'll build it all day long and twice on Sunday!

    I was saying what happens if I don't build it before it hits $300? $500? $700?

    And therein lies the rub... I still want to build #10227 - UCS B-Wing, but what happens when it hits the price point I paid for #10221 - UCS SSD? (just as an example)

    If you decide to only build one of those due to space limits, and they are worth the same, what would you build (#10227 or #10221)?

    I suppose I need to just let the retired sets go, building current sets will hurt less. :)

    This isn't a "I don't want to build LEGO" so much as, "I took too long to build that and it became expensive, rats!". :)

    I don't regret #10212 one little bit. But would I open and build it today at $350? Actually, yes I would, that model stands out as one of the best LEGO has ever done.

    But what about at $500? $700? $1,000?

    It is true that not everything in life is about money, but there does come a point where silliness kicks in. :) I'm sure we each draw that line somewhere different.

    ------------

    There is an old joke... Man walks up to a woman and says, "Will you have *** with me for $1 million dollars?"

    "Sure" she says, "of course"...

    He then says, "What about $50?"

    She is shocked, "what kind of girl do you think I am?"

    He replies, "we know what you are, now we're just negotiating price."

    You may not sell your favorite set for XXX dollars, but in all likelihood there is a price that you would sell at.

    Making it all about the money in the end. :)
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    I agree everyone has their price. Some people's are just higher than others.

    The value of Lego does bother me sometimes though. I bought a #41999 to build and I want to build it, it's such a cool looking set. However with the prices these are now fetching I can't justify it. Part of me would rather it was only worth RRP, then I'd just go ahead and build it.

    Of course another factor is the value of the set used vs new but I doubt we'll get any scale of this for a while on this set.

    Same goes for a MMV I have lying around, never built it and now I'm left wondering if I should build it or sell.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Gavin83 said:


    Same goes for a MMV I have lying around, never built it and now I'm left wondering if I should build it or sell.

    MMV is easy as it is only worth $10 above RRP and there are so many stockpiled it will have a hard time breaking thru $20 above RRP even after a decade lol.

    Pitfall69
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    You know....the value of sets doesn't drop a ton after you open them, only about 10-15% in most cases. I don't think it's a crazy idea to maybe open the sets you think about building and then just sell them used with the box and everything when you feel the time is right. Live a little. 10-15% is at least worth building something rather than wasting time thinking "But just was that B-wing like?" for the rest of your life.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Have there been any used 41999's come up for sale?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I agree with that, MMV is still at a price point that would make it worth buying, and likely will be for some time.

    True, it was nicer at $80, but even at $120 it is still a good deal. It was just out too long from an investment point of view.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    @doriansdad Didn't you make a "$200 by Xmas 2013" prediction for the MMV?

    I've got a NIB #4195 to be built sometime this epoch, even though it's already ~4x what I paid for it. And I'd appreciate it if we could stop talking about how great the IS is... Too tantalizing. I'm not a SW fan but I do love me some good Lego builds, even if they do resemble a sea gull with a mohawk.

    How about this one, for boredom on a Sunday's sake: Destiny's Bounty will be $___ this Xmas. Any takers?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Dougout said:

    You know....the value of sets doesn't drop a ton after you open them, only about 10-15% in most cases. I don't think it's a crazy idea to maybe open the sets you think about building and then just sell them used with the box and everything when you feel the time is right. Live a little. 10-15% is at least worth building something rather than wasting time thinking "But just was that B-wing like?" for the rest of your life.

    I have to disagree there, in regards to the flagship sets...

    Look at #10030 new vs. used, a huge difference. #10196, #10181, #10179, all good examples of huge price differences between new and used.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    @doriansdad Didn't you make a "$200 by Xmas 2013" prediction for the MMV?

    So did I, last year... :) We are both going to be wrong there...

    Maybe $200 by Christmas 2014! Maybe...

    I've got a NIB #4195 to be built sometime this epoch, even though it's already ~4x what I paid for it. And I'd appreciate it if we could stop talking about how great the IS is... Too tantalizing. I'm not a SW fan but I do love me some good Lego builds, even if they do resemble a sea gull with a mohawk.

    UCS IS can still be had for about $350 new, buy one, it is totally worth it at that price IMHO. Forget that it once was $260 retail (and $200 on sale), the fact is, it is one of the top 10 best sets LEGO has ever done, IMHO.

    Buy it, build it, and in 2 or 3 years, sell it used for more than $350. :)

    How about this one, for boredom on a Sunday's sake: Destiny's Bounty will be $___ this Xmas. Any takers?

    Destiny's Bounty has stalled... It might hit $200, but it is possible that without active promotion from a cartoon, kids have moved on to other things.
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