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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    I expect the rancor pit to be available for a year after Jabbas palace. That's the whole point. For the average kid who gets 1 or 2 big sets a year, for example, that means he can get JP for Xmas, and then get the pit later the next year for his birthday or the next Xmas, etc. There is a method to TLG's madness...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I think 10227 will do ok....back to RRP should not be too difficult....I would not expect too much beyond that.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    B Wing is a dud. If it gets to $250 I'd be shocked.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    When you bought it at 50% off with valuable gifts on top, there's not much to worry about. It should go back to RRP with relative ease providing a decent profit margin. I wouldn't expect much more from it though.

    The problem with these big UCS ships is that at the European price level they are too expensive meaning there's relatively little room for them to increase in value. Take the IS for example. If someone in the US bought it on a decent discount then there's some profit to be made. But the aftermarket price has only just barely surpassed the European RRP by now. It has EOLed 8 months ago and I can still buy it in about 5 different online stores at RRP in my country.

    I bought a single IS at 15-20% off and I'm starting to regret even that one.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Yep 10212 was not a good pick that is for sure....not the worst but far from the best.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I was planning on bundling Hogwarts Castle with Hogwarts last year and then BOOM!!! At the current prices, that would be insane. I think Helms Deep and Uruk Hai would be a good bundle.
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    timinchicago said:

    As of today B-Wing #10227 has gone from "Sold Out" to no longer even showing up on US LEGO [email protected] and there are only 14 left at Amazon at the moment for $156.

    I wouldn't read too much into its disappearance from [email protected] just yet. The site seems to be goofed. All the modulars have disappeared as well. They may show up on the "recommended for you" section, but will ultimately lead to a page not found error. Been like this most of the day on the US site anyways.

  • PoochyPoochy Member Posts: 479
    ^FB finally retired? :)
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    ^^ I don't see any way to purchase any of the modulars, sopwith, vw bus, or the haunted house. So a lot of the "hard to finds" on the US site are glitched out at the moment.

    Or... TLG just made a move that is going to rock us all ;)
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    It's TLG's very own April Fools' Day directed towards resellers.
    That or some resentful ex-IT-employee left a nasty virus behind.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    BoiseState said:

    B Wing is a dud. If it gets to $250 I'd be shocked.

    That's what they said about the AT-OT and, well....I don't really know, but that's what they said.

    sidersdd
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    LegoFanTexas said:

    The danger to Jabba's Palace at this point is all the resellers saw what happened a few months ago, so many are buying up as many as they can, forgetting that everyone else is doing that as well. :)

    I have a stack, but not a huge stack, I suspect it may end up more like MMV, given the scare and jump that everyone saw.

    Or not, time will tell.

    It also largely depends on Rancor Pit, does it retire at the same time, or continue for another year. If it is current and Jabba's is not, that will be... interesting. Rancor Pit doesn't make sense to me without the former, but what do I know. : )

    To piggyback on this, especially because there are probably a bunch of Jabba's stored away, a Jabba+Rancor pairing will be much more attractive to future buyers than a lone Jabba will, so if you want to stand out, you should pair them up while the Rancor is still around. I cannot see that set remaining on the shelves after the palace goes away.
  • LootefiskLootefisk Member Posts: 67
    timinchicago said:

    #10227 now down to 10 at Amazon...

    Still available on target.com and Walmart.com if you're still in need of picking this up
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    Something is definitely wrong with the [email protected] website...both FB and DS have disappeared. I think that's a sign that the apocalypse is at hand.
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    ^^
    Chima armies are storming the gates.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    #10227 is still available on the AU [email protected] site, anyone want one its only $350AUD :P

    I think both the B-Wing #10227 and IS #10212 will do well, obviously #10212 will do better. I just think that sets will and are taking more time to appreciate, more so then previous sets.

    The ever increasing number of sets that TLG is pumping out & the extended shelf life of said sets has an affect on the after market. You have more sets to buy plus more time to buy them. This means that there is less time and money to be worrying about older sets.

    Unless a set is only out for a year or two and then disappears with out warning (Such as The Zombies) it's just going to take more time.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    CircleK said:

    ^^ I don't see any way to purchase any of the modulars, sopwith, vw bus, or the haunted house. So a lot of the "hard to finds" on the US site are glitched out at the moment.

    Or... TLG just made a move that is going to rock us all ;)

    Ha! If those all were surprised retired, just imagine the price spikes! :)

    I still think HH will be out for several years, but if it retires this year, the sky is the limit.

    The other thing that can surprise is that we're all expecting FB to retire first, but what if GE or PS (or both) are retired first, and FB is kept? Would that not shock most people?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Basta said:

    Unless a set is only out for a year or two and then disappears with out warning (Such as The Zombies) it's just going to take more time.

    A year of two? :) Ha! Try like 4 months!

    Zombies was here, then gone, faster than you can blink... Which explains the $130+ price point. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    My wife picked up the Zombies on a whim. She said there was only one left.
    FollowsClosely
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    edited August 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Basta said:

    Unless a set is only out for a year or two and then disappears with out warning (Such as The Zombies) it's just going to take more time.

    A year of two? :) Ha! Try like 4 months!

    Zombies was here, then gone, faster than you can blink... Which explains the $130+ price point. :)
    Ok, a bit less for that one :)

    It does appear that 2-3 years was the median length that a set was available for previously, it is now starting to head towards 3-5+ years*. This obviously will alter how a set performs in the after market.

    (*This is just my perception, but it is at least true for some sets I haven't actually looked at the overall numbers)
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited August 2013
    Basta said:

    LegoFanTexas said:

    Basta said:

    Unless a set is only out for a year or two and then disappears with out warning (Such as The Zombies) it's just going to take more time.

    A year of two? :) Ha! Try like 4 months!

    Zombies was here, then gone, faster than you can blink... Which explains the $130+ price point. :)
    Ok, a bit less for that one :)

    It does appear though that where 2-3 years was the median length that a set was available for previously, it is now starting to head towards 3-5+ years. This obviously will alter how a set performs in the after market.
    mainly being star wars sets and modulars with the exception of a few others

    I can't see the sopwith being out for 3 years but i don't think it really matters as havnt alot of people agreed that ones going to be a sleeper?
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    I was having issues even accessing the site earlier today, so something was definitely up.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    Legofanscott said:

    Basta said:

    LegoFanTexas said:

    Basta said:

    Unless a set is only out for a year or two and then disappears with out warning (Such as The Zombies) it's just going to take more time.

    A year of two? :) Ha! Try like 4 months!

    Zombies was here, then gone, faster than you can blink... Which explains the $130+ price point. :)
    Ok, a bit less for that one :)

    It does appear though that where 2-3 years was the median length that a set was available for previously, it is now starting to head towards 3-5+ years. This obviously will alter how a set performs in the after market.
    mainly being star wars sets and modulars with the exception of a few others

    I can't see the sopwith being out for 3 years but i don't think it really matters as havnt alot of people agreed that ones going to be a sleeper?
    All the sets that are popular in the after market, hmmmm!

    Sopwith Camel is an great set and one of my favourites so I would not be surprised if it does well, until they re-make it for the third time at least.

  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    Basta said:


    It does appear that 2-3 years was the median length that a set was available for previously, it is now starting to head towards 3-5+ years*. This obviously will alter how a set performs in the after market.

    (*This is just my perception, but it is at least true for some sets I haven't actually looked at the overall numbers)

    If you are talking about exclusives then yes, they seem to have a longer life nowadays. The normal sets on the other hand continue to have 1-2 years of shelf life just like before. The Dino and Monster Fighters themes had a single year of lifetime for example. About half of the 1st wave of LOTR has also retired in a year, etc.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I think TLR may go the one year and done route too.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    LegoFanTexas said:

    The danger to Jabba's Palace at this point is all the resellers saw what happened a few months ago, so many are buying up as many as they can, forgetting that everyone else is doing that as well. :)

    I have a stack, but not a huge stack, I suspect it may end up more like MMV, given the scare and jump that everyone saw.

    Or not, time will tell.

    It also largely depends on Rancor Pit, does it retire at the same time, or continue for another year. If it is current and Jabba's is not, that will be... interesting. Rancor Pit doesn't make sense to me without the former, but what do I know. : )

    MMV is currently selling for about $125-$150 on the Bay, with roughly 60 listings in "new condition". I'm sure there are plenty of resellers holding back their postings, and maybe it hits $200 by Xmas.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I saw a fantastic Civil War display online last night and I think that even though the movie "bombed" there is still desire for the TLR theme outside of the movie itself. The "Union Soldier" Battle pack and the Constitution Train sets should continue to sell very well after the theme is EOL.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    That train is picking up steam, especially at $85 on Amazon.
    Pitfall69jasor
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I think with a little imagination, one could make the Constitution a respectable display train. I think @Tensor already motorized it, but it still looks too "child like". The Emerald Night wouldn't work because I don't think that design didn't come until the 1920's.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^A childish western train? I think I've seen that before.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^Yes, I said "child like" not "childish" lol :-)
    prevere
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited August 2013
    I'm not sure I've ever seen so many out of stock listings on [email protected] at one time. New sets, older sets, all kinds. Granted there are other outlets for purchase, but it has got to be annoying if one might be buying for a birthday.

    http://search2.lego.com/?q=out+of+stock&lang=2057&cc=US
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    FB is definitely going this year. My local Lego store opened earlier this spring and they had a few copies for the first few weeks but then sold out. I have not seen them re-stock it. I do believe that there is a chance that the new French Cafe could be a corner (which it should be). If that is the case then I expect GE to be retired shortly before or after.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    edited August 2013
    I do not see HH lasting past this year. It is still part of MF, and they are trying to get rid of that line right now out of the store with the sales (all excluding HH of course)
    I just do not see the HH going past Christmas, but that is just me.
    mathew said:

    FB is definitely going this year. My local Lego store opened earlier this spring and they had a few copies for the first few weeks but then sold out. I have not seen them re-stock it. I do believe that there is a chance that the new French Cafe could be a corner (which it should be). If that is the case then I expect GE to be retired shortly before or after.

    If we had a nickel for every time someone heard, or said, FB is 'definitely gone this year'......
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited August 2013
    mathew said:

    FB is definitely going this year.

    Where have I heard that before.....?
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    madforLEGO said:

    I do not see HH lasting past this year. It is still part of MF, and they are trying to get rid of that line right now out of the store with the sales (all excluding HH of course)
    I just do not see the HH going past Christmas, but that is just me.

    Why? MMV, Kingdoms Joust, IF all easily survived the EOL of their respective parent themes. Even Diagon Alley, which was a licensed set lingered on for another half a year at least.
    Yellowcastle
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    A local LEGO store stocking or not stocking a set doesn't mean much.

    There are large and small versions of the LEGO store, we have one of each in Dallas. The smaller store carries far fewer sets than the large store does, there just isn't room for them all.

    FB indeed should go this year, but we said the same thing last year, and the year before.

    What if FB is still selling, but GE and PS have slowed down? If the new cafe is a corner, what stops TLG from retiring GE and PS now and leaving FB on the market?

    Nuts, I know, but they could...
    Yellowcastle
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    madforLEGO said:

    I do not see HH lasting past this year. It is still part of MF, and they are trying to get rid of that line right now out of the store with the sales (all excluding HH of course)
    I just do not see the HH going past Christmas, but that is just me.

    Already been confirmed HH will be avilable thru at least Dec 2014.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited August 2013
    doriansdad said:

    madforLEGO said:

    I do not see HH lasting past this year. It is still part of MF, and they are trying to get rid of that line right now out of the store with the sales (all excluding HH of course)
    I just do not see the HH going past Christmas, but that is just me.

    Already been confirmed HH will be avilable thru at least Dec 2014.
    Who has confirmed it?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    ^ Wholesale order form. DS and TB also confirmed available at least thru 12/2014. SSD and FB to go 12/2013.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    Thanks @doriansdad
    Can you say what else is only available through 12/13?
  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    To pick up a SSD or not to pick up a SSD....hmmmm....
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    tom4086 said:

    To pick up a SSD or not to pick up a SSD....hmmmm....

    That set has never interested me, ridiculous price, looks ok at best and awkward to display, oh and its grey :(
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    What about the Technic #9398 and #8110 Going off previous big technic sets, 8110 should go this year?
  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    And then there's the Winter Village Post Office rumour....
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    edited August 2013
    I am guessing Technic will not be on that list, as only TRU can sell it in the US (not sure about globally)
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    edited August 2013
    To pick up 10 SSD or to pick up 5 SSD....hmmmm....

    Btw, retail for SSD in Romania is ~$600. Talk about marking above retail.
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    mathew said:

    FB is definitely going this year. My local Lego store opened earlier this spring and they had a few copies for the first few weeks but then sold out. I have not seen them re-stock it. I do believe that there is a chance that the new French Cafe could be a corner (which it should be). If that is the case then I expect GE to be retired shortly before or after.

    I doubt the PR will be a corner building. I just can't see TLG releasing two corner modulars in a row.

    I agree with the out going sets though. I fully expect FB and GE to be retired by March.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    tom4086 said:

    And then there's the Winter Village Post Office rumour....

    I don't think it is so much a rumor. I think it is gone, but at any time, Lego [email protected] could find some in a warehouse, much like they did last year with the Bakery.

  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    vitreolum said:

    To pick up 10 SSD or to pick up 5 SSD....hmmmm....

    Btw, retail for SSD in Romania is ~$600. Talk about marking above retail.

    At European prices I'd just stay away from it. I think it will be a poor investment.
    tom4086 said:

    And then there's the Winter Village Post Office rumour....

    Everything points to it being retired already. I think doriansdad is the only one from who I heard that it's coming back for another Christmas season.

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