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Technic in the aftermarket

rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
edited January 2014 in Buying & Selling Topics
This discussion was created from comments split from: 41999 Crawler Exclusive Edition set is now available on S@H US.
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Comments

  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Just out of curiosity Crowkillers, where do you see this set price wise in one, five, and ten years? I would say 400 in a year, 600 in five, and maybe 1000 in ten.
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited August 2013
    I wouldn't be surprised to see it go for as much as $500+ this Christmas...

    I could see this Triple in price by this time next year and I could see it over $1,000 way less than 10 years considering the low number of them that were made..

    The real value in this set is the fact that each one is distinctly numbered via a printed tile, not to mention the new things that had been done with the box..
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    Crowkillers said:

    Between myself, my family and my friends just in my city, I think we account for 16 of them, and this doesn't include the dozens of people that I know around the Globe that got sets... So it is really hard for me to imagine the initial 20,000 have not been sold already despite Lego still taking orders for them..

    We've been given a direct answer that the backordered sets are included in the 20,000 production, so it's quite definitive that 20,000 have not been sold. Your personal observation of purchases accounts for less than 100, so it doesn't seem too easy to project that to 20,000.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited August 2013
    Crowkillers said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see it go for as much as $500+ this Christmas...

    I could see this Triple in price by this time next year and I could see it over $1,000 way less than 10 years considering the low number of them that were made..

    I'll take the under on average selling price of $600 by 8/7/2014. Offer open to the first person that wants to book it. We can wager anywhere from a trifle to a 41999 :)
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited August 2013
    rocao said:

    Crowkillers said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see it go for as much as $500+ this Christmas...

    I could see this Triple in price by this time next year and I could see it over $1,000 way less than 10 years considering the low number of them that were made..

    I'll take the under on average selling price of $600 by 8/7/2014. Offer open to the first person that wants to book it. We can wager anywhere from a trifle to a 41999 :)
    The average selling price where at..? Right now the average selling price currently on bricklink is $360.. Of course though the sets cost a bit more in other countries... ;)


  • Tevans333Tevans333 Member Posts: 152
    I'm not that familiar with Technic. What are the top few performs so far? Curious to see what the technic after market looks like.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    edited August 2013
    rocao said:

    I'll take the under on average selling price of $600 by 8/7/2014. Offer open to the first person that wants to book it. We can wager anywhere from a trifle to a 41999 :)

    Average selling price... where? what country?

    I promise you that at some point before then I'll sell one for $600 or more, but it may not be the "average selling price". :)
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    LegoFanTexas said:

    I promise you that at some point before then I'll sell one for $600 or more, but it may not be the "average selling price". :)

    For the purpose of a wager, average makes sense and we could negotiate how to establish this. It's too easy to rig a bet if the qualifier is a single outlier. I'm open to other conditions, but it should be a decent representative of market value.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    rocao said:

    For the purpose of a wager, average makes sense and we could negotiate how to establish this. It's too easy to rig a bet if the qualifier is a single outlier. I'm open to other conditions, but it should be a decent representative of market value.

    :)

    Market value on Bricklink, eBay, or Amazon?

    USA, Europe, or World?

    Average in past week, 30 days, 6 months?

    Include damaged/incomplete boxes, or just MISB?

    Shipping included or not?

    Wish it were simple... but it isn't...

    Let me just say this... If this set doesn't triple by Christmas 2014, something went really wrong. Somewhere on Bricklink I'm sure you'll get cheaper copies, but I'll put my money on eBay's average 30 day sold price on Buy-It-Now in the USA being $600 15 months from now.

    That is a bit over a year, but summer isn't a fair time to compare, sales are terrible this time of year. Give it until November 2014 to reach a decent number. :)
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited August 2013
    Tevans333 said:

    I'm not that familiar with Technic. What are the top few performs so far? Curious to see what the technic after market looks like.

    Flagships do well, #8043 for example, but #8069 and #8070 have both done badly, still selling below RRP. #8109 is doing better at 1.5xRRP. Technic is very hit and miss, just like other themes, and the only way to make a good ROI is to buy cheap.

    Sports bikes like #8420 do well. #8051 was regularly available for £12 at Argos and now sells for £75+.

    Who is going to pay £150 for #8053 when you can have #42009 for the same price?

    Not sure how technic does in US, but I send used #8880, #8455, #853, etc across the pond regularly.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Tevans333 said:

    I'm not that familiar with Technic. What are the top few performs so far? Curious to see what the technic after market looks like.

    @Tevans333 #8275 the bulldozer is a good example of how popular a Technic set can be. #8265 is another one. The large construction vehicle sets definitely do well.

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^disagreed on both sets. A used but boxed #8275 will sell at £200 within a day or 2, try to sell a new one for £300 and it will just sit there. I don't think EOL MISB technic sets are collectable. People just want to build, display and use for mocs, so used is fine.

    #8265 EOL'd 2 years ago and still doesn't make 1.5x RRP. It great for parts though.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013
    Interesting. I see a totally different picture. I personally got some #8265 's when 8265 was a current set for $45 each. Retail on the set was $60.00. I sold all but the one I kept for over $200 each. That was 4X RRP. I'll take that kinda return all day long.

    Here's a recently completed auction for a NIB 8265 for $235...
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/Lego-8265-Front-Loader-MISB-USA-/380596755982?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item589d559e0e
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    #8043 is another good example, a recent one. The set could easily be bought for $150 back when it was current. It now sells for $250-300. May sell for $300-350 this Christmas. So, a person should be able to get close to doubling their money after fees. Again, a nice return for a 18 month investment.
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited August 2013
    I think I remember those #8265 sets being $80... I could be wrong though... Regardless that is triple+ the investment...

    I picked up a bunch of #8145 Ferrari Fiorano sets back in late 2008 when Lego was clearancing them out at 1/2 price for $54.99... Easily the best investment that I have made with Lego..

    The #8285 Tow Truck is another set that was a money maker.. I had quite a few of those.. I think they were only $120 new... Now you can get $500 fairly easy...
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited August 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:


    Market value on Bricklink, eBay, or Amazon?
    USA, Europe, or World?
    Average in past week, 30 days, 6 months?
    Include damaged/incomplete boxes, or just MISB?
    Shipping included or not?

    Wish it were simple... but it isn't...

    If we want the most precise data, I suggest the bet be: over/under $600 as the Bricklink average sale for new sets in the U.S. for the month of 8/2014.

    Sales history on eBay is a possibility, but it gets messy when "free shipping" is a part of the auction because that will inflate the sale price. Brickpickr, by nature of them scraping data and having to decipher some of these variables is also sloppy.

    I'm offering the bet for fun, so simplicity for resolving the bet is important.
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    Yeah, Ebay is too hit and miss, not to mention the shill bidding and fake accounts being used to ruin people's auctions... Sometimes you'll see a set sell for $1,200 with Buy-it-now when there are others there at 1/2 the price... Definitely cannot use Amazon, because the prices there are higher than they should be... Bricklink makes the most sense since it is easiest to figure out... Well actually it figures out the averages for you..
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    I'm surprised #8421 Mobile Crane hasn't been mentioned as a set that has done well in the aftermarket.

    P.S. I think I'll be relocating some of this conversation to the predictions thread.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013
    Crowkillers said:

    I think I remember those #8265 sets being $80...

    I could be wrong about the RRP price, but I'm not wrong about what I paid for them. I track all of my purchases in a worksheet. As I recall TRU had a price of $60 on the set and had a BOGO of buy 2 get 1 free. So, I got the sets for $40 each plus tax, which made them $45 each for me. As it turned out, with set 8265 LEGO didn't make many of them. They were there, then they weren't. Also, it's a great set.

    I think the Technic sets fly under the radar. Most everyone is gaga over SW, modulars, or the latest theme. All the while, there are some great Technic sets that people don't think to buy until they've EOL'd.

    And, yes. The tow truck was awesome! Most all large Technic sets are very nice.

  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    cloaked7 said:

    Crowkillers said:

    I think I remember those #8265 sets being $80...

    I could be wrong about the RRP price, but I'm not wrong about what I paid for them. I track all of my purchases in a worksheet. As I recall TRU had a price of $60 on the set and had a BOGO of buy 2 get 1 free. So, I got the sets for $40 each plus tax, which made them $45 each for me. As it turned out, with set 8265 LEGO didn't make many of them. They were there, then they weren't. Also, it's a great set.

    I think the Technic sets fly under the radar. Most everyone is gaga over SW, modulars, or the latest theme. All the while, there are some great Technic sets that people don't think to buy until they've EOL'd.

    I miss the old buy 2 get one free sales... :) I think the last one I did was for 8450 race trucks because that was the only set that they would let you buy as many as you wanted... Everything else was limited to one or two....

    I think we got our 8265 sets from Toys R Us, but I honestly don't remember what we paid for them... It could have been $60, but the $80 just sticks in my head... Maybe it was from Lego shop at home...

    Another nice score was the #8258 Crane trucks for $74.99 on clearance... I remember Lego having the sale on Christmas Eve at 1/2 price... I called everyone that I knew to jump on it, but I think only one guy actually did...


  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    edited August 2013
    rocao said:

    I'm surprised #8421 Mobile Crane hasn't been mentioned as a set that has done well in the aftermarket.

    #8421 was on my list of older sets to get until #42009 came around, I think it might have lost some appeal in the past 6 months.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Wow, a whole thread about technic. Bet it will take a few "bump"s to keep this one active.
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Technic's biggest problem is that, for me at least, it requires another level of skill beyond just LEGO to do anything but build the model on the box.

    The largest and most detailed Technic set I've built was #8258 Crane Truck - amazing really, the detail in the gearing, the feature run off the motor and the 8 wheel design...

    But there is zero chance I could take those parts and make something else with them. Not that I'd want to, it hurts too much to take Technic apart. :)

    Once it goes together, I have no interest in taking it apart as all those little pins hurt!
    LegoboyYellowcastle
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    edited August 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Once it goes together, I have no interest in taking it apart as all those little pins hurt!

    LOL.. Over time the fingers have a tendency to toughen and callous up a bit making pin removable easier... :)
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^poke the pins out with an axle.
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    The brick separator works great poking out pins.
  • CrowkillersCrowkillers Member Posts: 757
    It depends where the pins are at and how they are placed.. Sometimes 3L pins go in ways where you can't get anything into the other side...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    While all those are valid points, try taking #8258 apart... :) It is very densely built, a lot of pins are simply packed very tightly and will be a royal pain to remove.

    I might end up selling that one put together, even for less money, as the time and effort to take it apart is just not worth it. :(

    Yesterday we took #10198 - Tantive IV apart, that took 5 minutes to break into very small parts and another 25 minutes to completely take apart every single piece.

    I suspect #8258 would be an all afternoon (or all day) affair. :)
  • byhovabyhova Member Posts: 55
    I can honestly say, I put the 8258 together over a weekend, and 2 days later literally 6 hours to take apart and separate. Now if I would have just tore it down with no separation it would not have taken as long. I will agree with @LegoFanTexas those pins do hurt after awhile!

    I would like to throw my 2 cents in, I just built the 8110 Unimog this past weekend. Awesome build, my opinion better than 8258 because of the pneumatics! So I bought the Service Truck 42008 just for that reason (the pneumatics!)
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited August 2013
    When I've sold my old Technic sets (such as #8043 and #8109), I've broken them down just enough to be able to fit the "chunks" in the original box. It saves money on shipping versus putting the built model and original box into a box big enough to fit both. I find this to be an acceptable compromise between saving my time and shipping as cheaply as possible.

    No way I would consider wasting hours of my time taking those things apart, when I already spend hours putting them together! Of course, I fully disclose that the set will be in chunks when I sell it. I once forgot to note that in one of my ebay listings, and the buyer changed his mind when I told him how it would be shipped. I can't say I blame him lol.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Looks like 41999 is now "sold out" in some countries but back to "available now" in the USA....looks like those extra 3k sets are rolling out....won't be long until EOL now.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    edited August 2013
    Technic has it gems and as others have mentioned the big Flagship sets seem to do well.

    In the large lot of old NISB sets I bought last year, I sold all the Technic sets and most did not go for what I would have thought ($100 average). This was partly because I listed as an Auction and not BIN, plus I paid very little for them so I was not too fussed I just wanted to get rid of them to recover some of the money I had spent on the entire lot. In hindsight I probably would not have bothered selling if I knew the price I was going to get, they would be in my own collection.

    These sets were #8431 #8292 #8295 #8436, but I also had #8275 Motorized Bulldozer and this I sold as an Auction for $475. If I had been patient and sold it BIN I think I could have got up to $100 more.

    So when we look at #41999 I think it would fall into the #8275 category as far as popularity, compared to the other sets I listed. Will be interesting to see where it ends up over the next 18 months, I'm thinking $400+, not as sure about $600+ but time will tell.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    doriansdad said:

    Looks like 41999 is now "sold out" in some countries but back to "available now" in the USA....looks like those extra 3k sets are rolling out....won't be long until EOL now.

    Yes, but even if I was offered 50 of them, I think I might pass.

    It will do well, but sell slowly, and that doesn't help cashflow very much. :)
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Well at $600 then yes they will sell slowly lol. At $400 these will go fast. There will not be many resellers who stockpiled these....compare say to 21103 the ratio is 4:1 on bricklink and ebay....I am expecting to breeze thru my lot easily by end of this year, especially to overseas buyers.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    2 #41999 s have sold on ebay UK for £306 including delivery each this morning. I'm enjoying the price go up on the set almost as much as I enjoyed watching #10212 stock go down.
    vitreolum
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    I picked up #41999 today while LEGO USA still listed Ships in 30 days. If I actually get it, is there any way I can tell the license plate number from the outside of the box?
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    @mooman66, no, it is buried in the one of the #2 bags.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    41999 looks sold out in the USA as well.
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    ColoradoBricks said:

    @mooman66, no, it is buried in the one of the #2 bags.

    Thanks. That's going to make it incredibly difficult to get a true "value" of the sealed set. I know if I get mine it will be a high number, but I'm wondering if folks in the early sales get a higher resale for opening and providing that low number. Is it worth the risk to break the seal?

  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    Just because it was an early sale doesn't mean a low number. These are shipped in batches to different places. Not sequentially from one distribution centre in Billund.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Anybody started piling up the #8110, this must be the next big set to EOL. They were £110 at amazon uk before Xmas but I was too busy buying up #4842 and #8043.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    JamesJT said:

    Anybody started piling up the #8110, this must be the next big set to EOL. They were £110 at amazon uk before Xmas but I was too busy buying up #4842 and #8043.

    I dont own 1 single #8110 as of yet, which has shocked me, as Im crazy with buying Lego. When they were the £110 mark I felt it too far off EOL, so been hoping for a 3 for 2 recently (I tried with Argos to no avail).

    I had been prioritising the then soon to be EOL #8043

  • RunSubRunSub Member Posts: 34
    JamesJT said:

    2 #41999 s have sold on ebay UK for £306 including delivery each this morning. I'm enjoying the price go up on the set almost as much as I enjoyed watching #10212 stock go down.

    It's now sold for £400.. Dam I should have purchased all 14 that Liverpool had in stock this morning...why do I have morals?
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited August 2013
    Does anyone think 41999 might come back to stores for a short period? I'm sort of thinking that if stock will be replenished at Shop@Home to fulfill back orders, maybe Lego has allocated some of the backordered sets to the stores?

    I spoke with a customer service representative at Shop@Home, and she stated more #41999 sets would be available August 24. Any guesses on whether these will actually be for sale, or just used to fulfill back orders?
  • CupIsHalfEmptyCupIsHalfEmpty Member Posts: 545
    I think some people are forgetting that #41999 is an exclusive version of #9398 . so in the aftermarket some people will see #41999 and the price it commands and decide to buy the original version for much less. This will decrease the number of buyers for #41999 and will probably hold the price down.



  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    CupIsHalfEmpty said:

    I think some people are forgetting that #41999 is an exclusive version of #9398 . so in the aftermarket some people will see #41999 and the price it commands and decide to buy the original version for much less. This will decrease the number of buyers for #41999 and will probably hold the price down.

    Or on the other hand a technic collector wants a 9398 and then sees the 41999 and is limited edition with nice blue and silver parts with flashing lights and a nice box ;)
    FollowsCloselygreenwithenvy
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,382
    Each one will drive sales for the other.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    I don't know if this is quite the right place for this....

    http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Lego-technic-8285-tow-truck-blue-special-not-8043-8275-8110-8258-8265-/330985941835?pt=UK_Construction_Toys_Kits&hash=item4d104cab4b

    I think it looks better than the standard. Should every technic set be rebuilt in blue?
  • drdavewatforddrdavewatford Administrator Posts: 6,756
    RunSub said:

    JamesJT said:

    2 #41999 s have sold on ebay UK for £306 including delivery each this morning. I'm enjoying the price go up on the set almost as much as I enjoyed watching #10212 stock go down.

    It's now sold for £400.. Dam I should have purchased all 14 that Liverpool had in stock this morning...why do I have morals?
    They probably wouldn't have let you buy all 14, and quite right too. Speaking to staff at Watford today there's been a lot of people calling to buy them and they've been limiting purchases to two per person.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrdKKPEjrqc

    I guess someone actually bought one to open HAHA

    Oh well thats one less sealed one in existence :p
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